WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?


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🌍 Global Markets Rundown
  • Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
  • Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
  • Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
    • Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
  • Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
  • SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
    • Pan African Resources +106%
    • Harmony +76%
    • AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
    • Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

📉 Recession Watch
  • Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.”
  • Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
  • Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
  • Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
  • China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.
💸 Currency Check
  • The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
  • Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
  • Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.
📊 ETFs & Resources Rally
  • Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
  • Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.
📈 Local Market Highlights
  • Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
  • Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
  • Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
  • Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
  • Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

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