Market Overview:

• Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.

• Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025
• Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.

• Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025
• Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.

Key Market Insights:

• Gold as a Portfolio Hedge:
  • Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio.
  • Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York.
  • Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850.
• Dollar Index Trends:
  • Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101.
  • Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.

Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions:

• European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns.
• Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions.
• Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.

Investment Strategies:

• AI Participation Note by Standard Bank:
• Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index.
• Two options:
  • 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside.
  • Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%.
• Open for investment until March 28, 2025.

Renergen* Helium Production Milestone:

• Finally delivered helium after years of delays.
• Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain.
• Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending.
• Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.

Macroeconomic Outlook:

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast:
• Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%.
• Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.

Upcoming Rate Decisions:

• US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates.
• SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook