While the Battle of Alberta is front page news, this week Jackie and Peter take a break from hockey and talk about some other game-changing local headlines.  

First, they talk about the political change with Premier Jason Kenney announcing that he is stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP).  

Next, an Alberta court found the Impact Assessment Act (formerly Bill C-69) to be unconstitutional.  The Act defines the review process for large energy infrastructure projects in Canada.

After that, an update on the Canadian oil and gas industry’s fiscal pulse.  With higher oil and gas prices, the outlook for revenue and cashflow for 2022 has increased and can be viewed on the last page of our weekly ARC Energy Charts publication.  Today’s higher prices have significant implications for royalties, specifically, speeding up the timeline for oil sand projects to achieve the higher post-payout royalty rates.  

Finally, Peter and Jackie weigh in on the debate about who should pay for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – federal and provincial governments, or industry.

Here's the Calgary Herald article Jackie mentions re carbon capture 

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This week Heather Ferguson, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Strategy and Corporate Affairs with Ontario Power Generation (OPG) joins the podcast. OPG burned its last piece of coal in 2014 and has committed to being a net-zero company by 2040.  They have also expanded their generation assets beyond Ontario’s borders into the United States. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Heather: How will OPG achieve net-zero by 2040?  Is the regulatory process in Canada a barrier to achieving net-zero? What is the state of OPG’s Small Modular Reactor (SMR) projects? How is OPG’s electric car charging business progressing?  Are interconnects across Canada a way to achieve net-zero electricity faster and at a lower cost? Who should pay for zero emissions electricity and infrastructure – the rate payer or the taxpayer?  How are Indigenous voices and concerns represented as OPG proceeds with new projects?

See OPG’s Climate Change Plan at  https://www.opg.com/climate-change/

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This week we are delighted to have Stephen Poloz the former Governor of the Bank of Canada.  Stephen was the Bank’s Governor from June 2013 to June 2020 and was at the helm during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stephen just released a new book titled “The Next Age of Uncertainty” that outlines five tectonic forces that, when they interact together, will create more volatility and risk than the past era. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Stephen: How would you compare the inflation we face today to the period in the 1970s? How do higher interest rates work to reduce inflation? Are there other tools the central bank can use to control inflation? During the early 1980s high interest rates used to fight inflation caused a double dip recession, is that a concern now? What actions were taken by the central bank during the early days of the pandemic?  How concerned are you about Canadian housing prices? Why do you view the future to be more uncertain and volatile? 

“The Next Age of Uncertainty” is available for purchase from numerous retailers including digital and audio. Here is a link to purchase a hardcover on Amazon.ca: https://www.amazon.ca/Next-Age-Uncertainty-Riskier-Future/dp/0735243905

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This week John Gorman, President and Chief Executive Officer at the Canadian Nuclear Association (CNA) joins the podcast.  John recently wrote an op-ed titled “Examining the role of nuclear in Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan.”  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John: What is the scale and size of the new Small Modular Reactors (SMR)?  Is SMR technology safe?  What about the waste issue? When will the first SMRs be in operation? Is the electricity affordable? And, do you think Canada is poised for leadership in this new generation of reactors? 

To learn more about the Canadian Nuclear Association visit: https://cna.ca/

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This week we welcome to the podcast Jared Dziuba, Oil & Gas Market Specialist, BMO Nesbitt Burns and Rachel Walsh, Carbon Innovation Analyst, BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Jared and Rachel have authored several reports on the topic of CCS, including, “The Outer Limits: Exploring the Cost (Opportunity) of Canada’s Net Zero Pathways” and following the recent news of the federal tax credit for CCUS in Canada, they published “Durable Carbon Offset Revenue Still Needed to Drive CCUS.” 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked them: Considering the new federal tax credit, what carbon price is needed to support new investments? How likely is it that the carbon credit market in Alberta will trade at this level?  Could the actual costs for building large scale CCS projects be greater than expected? How is Alberta allocating the subsurface pore space for storing carbon? 

If you would like to have access to BMO Nesbitt Burns research on CCS, please contact Jared directly at [email protected]

Please review BMO Capital Markets disclosure at:  https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/ 

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This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?  
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada? 

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This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.

They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.

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Last week Peter attended GLOBE Forum 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia.  GLOBE Forum is Canada’s sustainability conference. At GLOBE, Peter and Tonja Leach, the executive director of Quest interviewed Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the IEA and we include a recording of their conversation on this podcast.

Before that, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that was introduced during GLOBE by Canada’s Environment and Climate Minister and the Prime Minister.  The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030 (compared to a 2005 baseline).

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This week our guest is Candyce Kelshall who has worked extensively with militaries and advising police forces around the world. Kelshall is currently the President of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) –Vancouver, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham University Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies and Vice Chair at the Canadian Intelligence Network. Kelshall is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Intelligence, Conflict and Warfare and also a board member at the Canadian International Council – Vancouver.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Candyce Kelshall: Will the financial sanctions on Russia be effective in influencing Putin’s actions? What if the severity of the sanctions is increased? What are the risks if NATO becomes directly involved in the Ukraine conflict? Could the conflict go beyond Ukraine’s border? Why is Russia’s army not taking over Ukraine as quickly as expected?  What are some potential scenarios going forward? What are the risks of a Russia-China-West multi-polar world?

On the podcast, Candyce Kelshall introduces the work of the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who is known for his book “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) that was based on an essay “The End of History” (1989). Kelshall also introduces the Russian political strategist Alexander Dugin who authored “Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical future of Russia” (1997) that predicted a number of Russian geopolitical strategies that did occur.

See link to a recent op-ed Francis Fukuyama in the Financial Post “Francis Fukuyama: Putin’s War on the Liberal Order.”

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On this week’s podcast, we interview Ian Anderson, the President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation on how the pipeline expansion project is progressing. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is expected to transport oil to Canada’s west coast by late 2023.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Ian Anderson: Are the legal challenges for the project done? What is the status of construction? How much of the workforce is Indigenous? Did the BC floods last fall set the project back? In the most recent update, why did project costs almost double? Who pays for the increased costs? Do you expect other large oil pipelines to be built in North America?  Does Russia’s war in the Ukraine change anything?

Peter and Jackie also extend their congratulations to Ian on his retirement starting in April 2022 and thank Ian for his incredible dedication and leadership on this critically important project for Canada.

To learn more about the Trans Mountain Expansion project visit: https://www.transmountain.com/project-overview

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