Last week Peter attended GLOBE Forum 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia.  GLOBE Forum is Canada’s sustainability conference. At GLOBE, Peter and Tonja Leach, the executive director of Quest interviewed Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the IEA and we include a recording of their conversation on this podcast.

Before that, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that was introduced during GLOBE by Canada’s Environment and Climate Minister and the Prime Minister.  The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030 (compared to a 2005 baseline).

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This week our guest is Candyce Kelshall who has worked extensively with militaries and advising police forces around the world. Kelshall is currently the President of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) –Vancouver, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham University Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies and Vice Chair at the Canadian Intelligence Network. Kelshall is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Intelligence, Conflict and Warfare and also a board member at the Canadian International Council – Vancouver.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Candyce Kelshall: Will the financial sanctions on Russia be effective in influencing Putin’s actions? What if the severity of the sanctions is increased? What are the risks if NATO becomes directly involved in the Ukraine conflict? Could the conflict go beyond Ukraine’s border? Why is Russia’s army not taking over Ukraine as quickly as expected?  What are some potential scenarios going forward? What are the risks of a Russia-China-West multi-polar world?

On the podcast, Candyce Kelshall introduces the work of the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who is known for his book “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) that was based on an essay “The End of History” (1989). Kelshall also introduces the Russian political strategist Alexander Dugin who authored “Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical future of Russia” (1997) that predicted a number of Russian geopolitical strategies that did occur.

See link to a recent op-ed Francis Fukuyama in the Financial Post “Francis Fukuyama: Putin’s War on the Liberal Order.”

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On this week’s podcast, we interview Ian Anderson, the President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation on how the pipeline expansion project is progressing. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is expected to transport oil to Canada’s west coast by late 2023.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Ian Anderson: Are the legal challenges for the project done? What is the status of construction? How much of the workforce is Indigenous? Did the BC floods last fall set the project back? In the most recent update, why did project costs almost double? Who pays for the increased costs? Do you expect other large oil pipelines to be built in North America?  Does Russia’s war in the Ukraine change anything?

Peter and Jackie also extend their congratulations to Ian on his retirement starting in April 2022 and thank Ian for his incredible dedication and leadership on this critically important project for Canada.

To learn more about the Trans Mountain Expansion project visit: https://www.transmountain.com/project-overview

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This week Peter and Jackie talk about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  What is the current situation with energy trade flows and markets due to the conflict? How much oil and gas supply could be cut off and what are the alternatives? Could Canadian energy supply help?  Will high oil prices and geopolitical concerns accelerate the energy transition?

Also discussed: 

• Peter’s recent commentary titled “Cold War, Inflation and Spiking Oil Prices: Q&A Through Déjà vu.” 
• The IPCC’s new report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” 
• A study that concludes that low carbon gas supply in British Columbia could be much larger than previously understood “BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential.”

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On this episode we welcome Murray Mullen, President and CEO of Mullen Group to the podcast. The Mullen group is one of Canada’s largest logistics providers.

Here are some of the questions we asked Murray:  What is the situation today with COVID related supply chain bottlenecks? Is there a shortage of truck drivers? How has online shopping impacted supply chain issues? What is your outlook for oil and gas oilfield service activity in Canada? What is realistic for decarbonizing the trucking feet?

To learn more about Mullen Group visit: https://www.mullen-group.com/

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This week Tyler Bryant, Strategic Advisor, Climate and Energy at FortisBC joins the podcast.  FortisBC delivers renewable energy, natural gas and electricity to customers in British Columbia. Here are some of the questions we asked Tyler:  What are the challenges of electrifying heating in Canada? What is renewable natural gas? How much renewable natural gas is possible? What is the potential carbon intensity reduction of gaseous fuels by blending hydrogen and renewable natural gas? Do you agree with cities in the US and Canada banning new natural gas connections?

They also discuss a recent commentary by Jackie titled “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Reconsider the Future of Natural Gas.”

To learn more about FortisBC's renewable natural gas offering: https://www.fortisbc.com/services/sustainable-energy-options/renewable-natural-gas

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With WTI oil prices over $90/B, Peter and Jackie update podcast listeners on the most recent oil market fundamentals. As a result of these higher prices, ARC has increased its estimates for Canadian industry revenue and cash flows.

Finally, they discuss Jackie’s recent commentary “Turn out  the lights and other lessons on electricity consumption.”  This article was originally published  for Let’s Talk Science and the Royal Society of Canada who have partnered to provide coverage on STEM programs and learning. To read other articles visit the “Let’s Talk Science” page at the Globe and Mail.

To see the most current Western Canadian oil and gas drilling activity , view the ARC Energy Charts: Chart 35 is the Canadian gas drilling activity and Chart 37 is the oil drilling activity.  The last page of the Energy Charts shows ARC’s estimates for Canadian industry metrics.

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This week we would like to share another podcast with you, called “Energy vs Climate.” The three hosts are David Keith, Sara Hastings-Simon and Ed Whittingham. Every two weeks the trio, along with their guests, break down the trade-offs and hard truths of the energy transition in Alberta, Canada, and beyond. This episode is a discussion from October 2021 on the challenges of decarbonizing the Aviation sector with guest Dr. Steven Barrett of MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics. If you like ARC Energy Ideas, we think you will also enjoy this podcast. We hope you find this episode insightful.

To learn more about the podcast and to subscribe, visit their website: https://www.energyvsclimate.com/

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Brent oil price is near $90/B now and WTI is not far behind. Peter and Jackie discuss the latest price moves and drivers. They also muse over the return of geopolitical tensions in the oil markets. While geopolitics have historically been a significant factor in the oil markets and price formation, over the past decade the impact has been more muted.

Finally, they review the volatile equity markets so far in 2022. Energy transition names have been under pressure while oil and gas equities have rallied.

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This week Catherine Cobden joins our podcast. Catherine is the President and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA). Canadian steel is already some of the lowest carbon product in the world and the industry has announced goals to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Here are some of the questions we asked Catherine: What are some of the technologies that can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions for producing steel? How advanced are these low carbon processes now? The Canadian federal government has a stated goal to reduce emissions between 40 and 45% by 2030, is this level of reduction realistic for the steel industry in that timeframe?

Read more on CSPA’s goal to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, in their “Climate Call to Action.”

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