With the conflict in Tigray declared over by the federal government, Ethiopia’s complex transition is at a daunting crossroads. Steering the country into calmer waters ahead of the upcoming elections will require difficult political navigation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Regional autonomy demands, border disputes, and recurring bouts of inter-ethnic violence lay bare the many fault lines that remain. What will it take to successfully bridge the competing agendas of ethnonationalism and pan-Ethiopianism to find a workable middle ground on which to advance Ethiopia’s democratic transition?

Constitutional specialist and political analyst Adem Kassie Abebe, a Program Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), joins Alan to give his personal take on the likelihood of a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) insurgency, the imperative of inclusive national dialogue in the near future and the different directions the country could be headed in given these uncertainties.

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