At the Water's Edge

Did the Iran war flip the 2026 midterms, or was it gas prices? Chad Law, host of Common Sense with Chad Law, joins Scott Kelly to argue that voters punished affordability, not foreign policy, and that the new Democratic majority may not end the Iran war at all. Both parties take money from the same Big Five defense contractors, and a war that helped win 2026 could be just as useful in 2028.

We also cover why the Republicans who survived the blue wave all had pocketbook records to run on, whether tariffs and sanctions outlast Trump, and if the DSA’s turn against Israel survives real power in Washington. We look at how defense consolidation left us firing $4 million missiles at $40,000 drones while Ukraine builds new weapons in weeks. We also get into the data center fight in upstate New York and whether a year of national service could cool America’s partisan divide.

Chapters
(00:00) Intro
(00:31) Meet Chad Law
(02:06) Did Iran flip the midterms?
(05:26) Would voters care if prices were low?
(06:18) Trump’s messaging vs. delivery
(07:48) Are tariffs and sanctions here to stay?
(10:08) Mamdani, the DSA, and Israel
(14:03) The Big Five defense contractor monopoly
(18:56) The Ron Paul playbook the DSA is running
(20:23) Onshoring, friendshoring, and higher prices
(23:57) Epstein files and political courage
(25:44) How Ukraine builds weapons in two weeks
(27:20) Will Democrats actually end the Iran war?
(30:20) Data centers in upstate New York
(35:01) National service and political polarization
(40:43) Where to find Chad

About the guest
Chad Law hosts Common Sense with Chad Law, live on YouTube nightly at 7 PM, and is the author of the Common Sense Trilogy.
Website: https://chadparkerlaw.com

Get Scott’s analysis in your inbox: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Democrats just won both the House and the Senate. So the war with Iran is over, right? Not so fast.In this solo episode, I break down what Congress can actually do to end a war, and why it almost never does it.What we cover:- The power of the purse: how Congress has cut off war funding before, from the Case-Church Amendment that ended the bombing in Cambodia to the Boland Amendments and Iran-Contra- Why Bush's 2007 veto of Iraq war funding is the template for what happens next- The War Powers Resolution, the "reset the clock" loophole, and why INS v. Chadha means Congress still needs a veto-proof majority- Why voters flipped seats over gas prices and corruption, not the war itself- The bipartisan Iran hawks who don't want this war to end- How the 2002 Iraq vote haunted Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign, and why Congress has avoided going on the record about war ever since- The cynical 2028 math: does a running war help Democrats more than ending it?Bottom line: the midterms changed who runs Congress. They didn't change the fact that the easiest thing for Congress to do is nothing.Follow the show for weekly national security and geopolitics analysis.Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorgContact: [email protected]

The Democrats won the House and Senate in a blowout. Does that mean the Iran war winds down in January? Professor Robert Pape argues the opposite: the next 60 days may be the most dangerous stretch of the conflict yet.

Pape explains why the real shock of the midterms wasn’t the size of the blue wave, but the share of MAGA voters who turned out to vote Democratic out of anger at President Trump. He traces the cracks now in the open, from JD Vance and Ron DeSantis to Thomas Massey’s planned impeachment articles against Secretary Hegseth, and why Pape now puts Trump in Nixon territory. He argues that a fracturing presidency gives Trump a growing incentive to escalate with Iran because the domestic cost has bottomed out, and he puts the odds of escalation before January at 50-50.

We also cover the three fronts running on the same clock: Iran’s zero-hour targeting posture and Netanyahu’s push to strike first, Putin’s campaign against Ukraine’s power grid, and the transfer of power in Washington. Plus, whether a Democratic Congress has any real incentive to end the war.

Robert Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST).

00:00 Is it all over now?
00:46 Three escalation fronts, one 60-day window
03:18 MAGA voters crossing over
07:07 Vance, DeSantis, Massey: the cracks go public
10:26 From LBJ and Carter to Nixon territory
17:08 Putin’s plan to black out Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa
20:18 Will Trump take an L on Iran?
26:08 Will a Democratic Congress actually end the war?

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
Contact: [email protected]

Russia and China have about 60 icebreakers in the Arctic. The United States has three, and one of them is in the shop.Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar, author of Sea Change: America's New Great Game in the Arctic Circle, joins host Scott Kelly to explain how the melting Arctic became a new front in great power competition, and why America's weakness there was largely self-inflicted. Drawing on two weeks aboard the US Coast Guard cutter Healy, she explains how the US gave up its commercial shipbuilding base after the Cold War, how China built a "polar Silk Road" with Russian help, and what the ICE Pact icebreaker deal with Finland could mean for rebuilding American industrial power.We also cover the Northern Sea Route, the race for Arctic resources, the falling-out with Canada, the Law of the Sea, the role of the Arctic's native peoples, and her case for a year of national service.Get Sea Change: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/sea-change-rana-foroohar/1149500920?ean=2940202668777Still waiting on that check? Order your WHERE'S MY PEACE DIVIDEND shirt: https://at-the-waters-edge.myshopify.com/Chapters:00:00 Intro and Sea Change00:50 Why the Arctic: ships, choke points and China03:48 How America gave up maritime power05:31 Where's my peace dividend?08:31 The Arctic as a new arena of great power competition13:37 Should we care if Russia and China are up there?16:07 Icebreakers, ICE Pact and the Finns20:02 What happened with Canada21:38 Defense industry pushback on foreign shipbuilding24:01 Is the old neoliberal model finished?30:21 Treaties, alliances and the Law of the Sea35:45 The Arctic's native peoples39:11 Advice for this administration and the next41:47 The case for national serviceFollow At the Water's Edge for serious conversations on national security and geopolitics.

The Pentagon just fired its top strategist in the middle of a war with Iran, and no replacement has been named. What could go wrong?Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans and Policy (the J5). He is the second officer pushed out of that job since the administration returned. Within a day, the Pentagon's explanation went from a cordial send-off to accusations of leaking classified information and failed polygraphs, none of it publicly substantiated.Scott breaks down who Sylvia is, what the J5 actually does, and why the office responsible for stress-testing war plans and delivering bad news is so exposed right now. He also covers his predecessor's early exit, the Laura Loomer subplot, what this means for careers and candor inside the Pentagon, and how Tehran is likely reading the turmoil as the U.S. weighs renewed strikes.At the Water's Edge looks for insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner's view on national security and geopolitics.Chapters:00:00 Intro00:20 Breaking: Pentagon's top planner fired01:00 Who is Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia?02:10 Hegseth's flag officer purge02:40 S, G & J shops: how military staffs work04:20 What the J5 actually does05:35 Why was he fired? The shifting story08:05 The Laura Loomer subplot08:45 His predecessor: Lt. Gen. JP McGee09:40 Why the J5 job gets people fired12:00 DIME and the interagency13:10 An insecure Pentagon and easy answers14:10 What this does to careers inside the building17:50 Eroding institutional brakes18:35 How Iran sees it20:30 Final thoughtsIf you found this useful, follow the show and share it with someone tracking the Iran war.

Is there a way to end the war with Iran that doesn't totally suck? And where's the line between an online grifter and a foreign state running influence operations against American elections?A week out from the midterms, OSINT analyst and YouTuber Ryan McBeth joins me to break down how information warfare actually works, and why the U.S. keeps leaving its own information operations capability on the shelf.We get into bot farms used to tank stock prices, the Tenet Media case and Russian money behind American influencers, and the Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down because the contract barred criticism of China. Then we turn to Iran: whether the regime is a rational actor, whether this war makes an Iranian bomb inevitable, Ryan's plan for marching on Tehran (and why I think it breaks down in the mountain passes), and why it's easier to get approval for a drone strike than a leaflet drop.Ryan McBeth is a 20-year infantry veteran, former C4ISR software engineer, Newsmax intelligence consultant, and author of The Win Machine and the Deseret series.Find Ryan:Substack: ryanmcbeth.substack.comYouTube: @RyanMcBethProgrammingChapters:00:00 Cold open00:37 Intro01:09 Cigars, Ranger School & firefighting school07:43 Info ops ahead of the midterms08:14 How bot farms short stocks10:49 The grift economy & "decliners"12:02 Tenet Media and paid influencers16:12 The Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down19:39 The economics of military YouTube21:26 From coding interviews to Ukraine's tank turrets25:09 YouTube, Substack & Newsmax27:54 Veterans, partisanship, and finding a lane32:34 Is Iran a rational actor?37:21 Will Iran get the bomb? Containment & blockade42:06 The McBeth plan vs. the terrain46:04 Why no psyop campaign against Iran?49:43 Easier to drop a bomb than a leaflet52:43 Where to find Ryan

Israel votes on October 27 in its first national election since October 7, 2023, and the final polls show no one with a clear path to power. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition leads, Netanyahu's bloc is holding at 50 seats, and the Arab-majority parties hold the balance, even though most leaders on both sides say they won't govern with them.In this episode, Scott breaks down how Israel's coalition system works, who's running, why Netanyahu is in trouble, and what a new government would and wouldn't change for Gaza, the war with Iran, and the U.S.-Israel relationship. The face at the top may change, but the core policies on Palestinian statehood and Iran likely won't, and that leaves Washington's "Netanyahu is the problem" argument on thin ice.Recorded October 26, 2026, the day before the vote. Poll figures are from the final Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys published October 23.CHAPTERS0:00 Intro1:06 Bottom line: nobody has 61 seats2:03 How Israel's election system works3:46 The main players4:41 Final polls & the bloc math6:28 Why Netanyahu is in trouble9:04 The Arab parties: kingmakers?10:55 The catch: nobody will govern with them13:05 What it means for Palestinians14:32 Iran: expect continuity16:15 Washington & the "Netanyahu excuse"18:16 What to watch on election night19:25 Recap & closeSOURCESHaaretz: final election polls (Oct 23, 2026)Al Jazeera: The Israeli politicians seeking to replace Netanyahu (Oct 17, 2026)Moshe Dayan Center: Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel (May 2026)Reuters via Al-Monitor: Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire (Apr 13, 2026)PBS NewsHour: U.S. strikes Iranian oil tankers (Sept 5, 2026)Gaza Health Ministry figures as of Oct 24, 2026UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry: Gaza genocide finding (Sept 2025)

Ships keep getting hit in the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt is weighing whether to send troops to Saudi Arabia, and the IRGC is now threatening to invade neighboring countries if the US strikes again. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain why an Iranian ground invasion would play directly into American strengths, and why Iran’s more dangerous option is fracturing the Gulf states from within.

We discuss:

• The hammer-and-anvil approach to precision warfare, from Bosnia to the Taliban to ISIS
• Why the alliance that toppled the Taliban couldn’t deliver bin Laden
• How Iran could use the Gulf’s Shia populations to break its neighbors apart without occupying them
• How failing Gulf states could hit US Treasury markets and interest rates
• The diversionary theory of war and the window between Election Day and the January transition
• Whether French, Greek, and Egyptian deployments make this a world war
• Why Trump’s promise not to use nuclear weapons isn’t a decision, and why the worst-case analysis given to the President should be declassified

The full Q&A with Professor Pape is available the same day to members of The Briefing Room on YouTube.

Chapters:
00:00 This week: Hormuz, Egypt, and Iran’s invasion threat
01:39 Why an invasion would be Iran overreaching
11:20 Would Iraqi militias become Iranian territory?
16:21 Mapping the Shia in the Gulf states
19:04 Iran’s real goal: failed Gulf states, not occupation
21:21 Diversionary war and the post-election window
24:03 Is this World War III?
27:42 Trump rules out nukes. Should we believe it?
33:40 Declassify the worst-case analysis

How is the war over the Strait of Hormuz reaching Africa? Ghanaian security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu returns to explain how the Iran war is driving fuel protests, food insecurity, and the risk of state collapse across the continent.

We discuss why removed fuel subsidies make this shock hit Africans twice as hard, how Gen Z protests brought down Madagascar’s government, and why military juntas no longer bother pretending to be democracies in a multipolar world. We also cover Egypt weighing troops for Saudi Arabia, Tim Kennedy’s ambush in the DRC and the scramble for critical minerals, the Houthi–al-Shabaab connection across the Bab el-Mandeb, the succession question in Saudi Arabia, and which African states are closest to collapse.

Fidel’s warning: when people can’t afford food, they protest. When there’s no food to buy, they take up arms.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is a geopolitical and security advisor and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance across Africa.

Africa Intelligence Report (waitlist): https://the-africa-intelligence-report.ghost.io/join-the-waitlist/Fidel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fidel-amakye-owusu-8158b6149/

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:44 How the Iran war hits Africa: fuel prices and lost subsidies
04:28 Elections, coups, and the threat to young democracies
06:26 Gen Z protests and Madagascar’s new junta
07:34 Parallels to the Arab Spring
09:22 Why juntas no longer fake democracy
12:24 Africa as the testing ground for a multipolar world
14:29 Why African states look abroad instead of to each other
17:35 Resource nationalism, Erik Prince, and Tim Kennedy in the DRC
20:29 When non-state actors rival the state
25:59 The Houthis and al-Shabaab: pragmatic extremists
29:28 Egypt, Sisi, and troops for Saudi Arabia
31:02 Will Sisi actually leave power in 2030?
35:35 MBS, Saudi succession, and the UAE rivalry
41:33 Fertilizer, the Red Sea, and famine risk in the Horn of Africa
45:28 Is hunger more dangerous than fuel prices?
47:02 Which African states are closest to collapse?
49:38 Where to find Fidel’s work

Houthi missiles are hitting Riyadh’s main airport, and it’s turning into Saudi Arabia’s worst-case scenario. One strike killed at least 12 people and injured around 300. Flights are cancelled, and the oil executives Saudi Arabia was trying to host have pulled out.

This week I trace how we got here, starting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: his rise to power, the 2017 Ritz-Carlton purge, and his 2015 decision to go to war in Yemen with a military built to protect the monarchy, not to fight. A decade of escalation pushed Iran to arm the Houthis with better and better asymmetric weapons, and that same adaptation is now being used against U.S. forces.

Then the bigger question: if the House of Saud can’t keep the kingdom safe, what happens to the deal that has kept it stable? I walk through what’s at stake, from global oil and food supplies to who controls Mecca and Medina.

For more on the strategic side of the Iran conflict, go back and listen to the Escalation Trap series with Robert Pape.

Want to go one step further? Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get this week’s companion video, which looks at what most likely comes next if something happens to MBS. https://youtu.be/6E_cTl9em2A