At the Water's Edge

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time.

After 100 days of war, Pape argues that the conflict is no longer in its opening phase — but it is nowhere near over. Instead, the war has entered what he calls the middle of the escalation trap: a grinding phase where weeks of boredom can be punctuated by hours of terror.

The key shift, according to Pape, is that Iran is no longer just trying to survive.

Its ambitions are growing.

In this episode, we discuss how Iran may be moving from survival toward dominance in the Persian Gulf, what that means for U.S. forces in the region, why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point, and how financial markets may be underestimating geopolitical risk.

The longer this war continues, the more Iran’s ambitions may expand.

This is no longer just about whether Iran survives. It is about what Iran may become if the escalation trap continues.

New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

President Trump thought Iran would collapse quickly. According to Dr. Trita Parsi, that assumption may be one of the central miscalculations that pulled the United States deeper into war.

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Dr. Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the war with Iran, the limits of American coercion, and what a realistic diplomatic off-ramp would require.

They discuss why Iran has proven more resilient than Washington expected, where Tehran may have miscalculated, how the U.S. policy process broke down, and why military superiority does not always translate into political control. The conversation also covers the Abraham Accords, Gaza, U.S. military presence in the Middle East, sanctions relief, and whether international humanitarian law can survive in a multipolar world.

This is a practitioner-focused conversation about strategy, escalation, diplomacy, and the future of American power.

Find more from Trita Parsi here:

Trita Parsi’s Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/
Quincy Institute: https://quincyinst.org/

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time.

After two weeks of ceasefire claims, strikes, and renewed negotiations, Pape argues that the conflict is not moving toward real stability. Instead, the U.S. and Iran may be entering what he calls a new era of instability.

Even if a memorandum of understanding is signed, the underlying issues remain unresolved: nuclear enrichment, Iran’s stockpiles, control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the U.S. military presence in the Gulf.

Pape also warns that diplomacy does not necessarily mean the danger has passed. The U.S. has a long history of bombing and talking at the same time, from Vietnam to Bosnia, and troops in the region should not assume negotiations mean escalation is off the table.

A deal is not the same thing as stability.

Unless the underlying force posture changes, the war may remain trapped in a cycle of negotiations, skirmishes, oil pressure, and escalation.

New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Former NASA Administrator and Secretary of the Navy Sean O’Keefe returns to At the Water’s Edge for a conversation about American power, strategy, space, war, and national identity.

At a moment when the United States is confronting conflict with Iran while also advancing the Artemis program, O’Keefe explores a deeper question: what actually makes America powerful?

Drawing on decades of leadership across NASA, the Navy, the Office of Management and Budget, academia, and the private sector, O’Keefe discusses why Artemis matters beyond symbolism, how commercial space is changing the future of exploration, what Ukraine’s battlefield innovation reveals about the future of war, and why America’s alliances and credibility may be among its greatest strategic assets.

The conversation also examines the limits of military power, the danger of unclear objectives, the challenge of defense procurement, and whether the United States can still mobilize around ambitious national missions.

This is a conversation about more than Iran, NASA, or the Moon. It is about whether America still understands the sources of its own power.

The war with Iran may be more than another crisis in the Middle East.

In this latest installment of The Escalation Trap, Robert Pape argues that the conflict is becoming a hinge event — almost the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War. Instead of demonstrating American military dominance, this war may be revealing the limits of U.S. power when tactical military strength no longer produces strategic outcomes.

This conversation moves beyond the Gulf to examine what the war means for China, Taiwan, Europe, NATO, India, and the future of American influence.

Pape explains why allies are beginning to rethink their assumptions, why America’s security umbrella may be weakening, and why this conflict could accelerate a broader shift in the global order.

In this episode:

Key takeaway:

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics, bridging academic theory with how conflict unfolds in the real world.

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time.

Pape argues that the conflict has now entered the true danger zone. The negotiation track, he says, may be effectively dead for weeks or months — not because talks are impossible, but because the core issues at stake are zero-sum.

Unlike a real estate deal, international politics has no court that can enforce an agreement. When the issues involve nuclear weapons, sovereignty, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, every concession can make a state more vulnerable in the next round.

The danger is not just that negotiations fail.

The danger is that each failed negotiation makes escalation look more like the only remaining option.

New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Former State Department senior advisor and National Security Council official Negah Angha joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss what the war with Iran reveals about American strategy, alliances, and decision-making.

Angha explains how major national security decisions are supposed to move through the U.S. government, why inconsistent objectives and poor consultation with allies can weaken American credibility, and how Iran’s pressure on the Strait of Hormuz has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy. The conversation also covers low-cost drones, the limits of the U.S. defense industrial base, Congress’s role in war powers, the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the complicated role of diaspora communities in U.S. foreign policy.

This episode is about more than Iran. It is a broader look at whether the American national security system can still align military power, diplomacy, alliances, public support, and long-term strategy in a crisis that moves faster than Washington’s bureaucracy.

This is Part 7 of The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time.

This week, the Trump administration announced Project Freedom, an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by escorting ships through the waterway. At the same time, Iran is working with Pakistan and Turkey to expand overland trade routes, Hezbollah has increased drone attacks against Israel, and conflicting reports emerged over a possible encounter involving a U.S. warship.

But according to Pape, the bigger picture is clear:

The United States is losing control — not only in the Gulf, but across multiple regions at once.

This conflict is no longer confined to Iran, Israel, and the Gulf.

It is becoming a test of American power — and the consequences may extend across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the global economy.

New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger?

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.”

Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple interconnected theaters, where major powers compete indirectly across regions—and where decisions in one conflict shape outcomes in another.

Read is NYT OPED: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/opinion/international-world/iran-ukraine-world-war.html

The conversation explores:

This is a wide-ranging discussion on how to think about modern warfare, great power competition, and the risks of escalation in an increasingly interconnected global system.

This is Part 6 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time.

Over the past week, we saw renewed efforts to restart negotiations—including a Pakistan-backed diplomatic push—but no meaningful progress. Ceasefires continue to be announced and collapse just as quickly.

At the same time, something more significant may be taking shape beneath the surface:

👉 The “third way” between escalation and accepting Iran’s rise may no longer exist.

This conflict is no longer just about military escalation.

It’s about who fills the power vacuum—and how the global system reorganizes around it.

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 What to watch next:🎧 Follow the series:🔗 Follow Robert Pape’s analysis:📡 About the show: