At the Water's Edge

The Sahel region of West Africa has become one of the most unstable security environments in the world. A wave of military coups, expanding jihadist insurgencies, and the growing influence of Russia and the Wagner Group are reshaping the geopolitical landscape across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the surrounding region.

But what is actually driving the crisis?

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly sits down with Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in West African and Sahelian security dynamics, to unpack the forces behind the region’s instability.

They discuss the origins of jihadist movements in the Sahel, the collapse of state authority across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and how insurgent groups are increasingly performing functions traditionally associated with governments — including taxation, control of trade routes, and local security.

The conversation also examines the role of French counterterrorism operations, the political consequences of recent military coups, and how Russia and the Wagner Group have expanded their presence as Western forces have withdrawn.

Finally, they explore one of the most important questions facing the region: can the democratic states surrounding the Sahel contain the instability, or will the crisis spread further into coastal West Africa?

This episode provides a practitioner’s perspective on the evolving security crisis in the Sahel, one of the most important and least understood geopolitical challenges in the world today.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is a Ghanaian security analyst focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance challenges across West Africa and the Sahel. His work examines extremist movements, regional security cooperation, and the political dynamics shaping stability in the region.

The rise of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel

Why governance gaps fuel instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger

How insurgent groups fund themselves through taxation, trade routes, and resource control

The impact of French counterterrorism operations in West Africa

The recent wave of coups across the Sahel

Russia and Wagner’s expanding role in regional security

Whether democratic states like Ghana and Senegal can contain the crisis

What is the war in Ukraine teaching the world about modern warfare?

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Samuel Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses, one of the leading analysts tracking Russian military adaptation and the role of drones and emerging technology on the battlefield.

They discuss how Western analysts misunderstood Russian capabilities before the 2022 invasion, how the massive proliferation of small drones has made the battlefield increasingly transparent, and why both Russia and Ukraine have turned to commercial technology and civil society to sustain combat operations.

The conversation also explores the early role of artificial intelligence in the war, how soldiers on both sides are modifying technology at the tactical edge, and what lessons the United States military should be learning from the conflict.

As China, Iran, and other major powers study the war closely, Ukraine has become a real-time laboratory for the future of warfare—and a warning about how quickly modern conflicts can evolve beyond anyone’s expectations.

• The battlefield is becoming transparent.

• Commercial technology is now part of warfare.

• Civil society has become a wartime logistics system.

• AI is beginning to appear on the battlefield.

• The world’s militaries are watching closely.

Retired Major Richard Ojeda joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss his campaign for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, why he believes veterans should play a larger role in American politics, and what he sees as the biggest failures of Washington today.

Ojeda spent 24 years in the U.S. Army, much of that time at Fort Bragg, before returning to his hometown in southern West Virginia, where he served as a state senator and became known for his outspoken populist style of politics. In this conversation, we explore how military service shapes his political worldview, the challenges veterans face when transitioning to civilian life, and the role Congress should play in overseeing the executive branch during times of geopolitical tension.

The discussion covers everything from VA bureaucracy and rural economic decline to war powers, foreign policy, and populism in both political parties.

While the conversation touches on highly political issues, the goal of this episode is not endorsement but understanding—examining how a combat veteran running for Congress views the current strategic and political moment in the United States.

Transitioning from military service to civilian life

The VA disability system and challenges veterans face navigating it

Why Ojeda believes veterans should run for public office

Campaigning as a populist Democrat in a Republican-leaning district

The role of grassroots campaigning vs. corporate PAC funding

Congressional oversight of the executive branch

War powers and constitutional limits on presidential authority

How foreign policy decisions affect military communities

Trade policy, manufacturing, and the economic challenges facing rural America

Working across the aisle in Congress

Richard Neece Ojeda II is a retired U.S. Army major and former West Virginia state senator. During his military career he served in multiple deployments during the Global War on Terror. After leaving the Army, he entered politics and became known for his outspoken advocacy on behalf of working-class communities and veterans.

He is currently running for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th District.

Scott Kelly is a former U.S. Army Special Forces officer and the host of At the Water’s Edge, a podcast examining national security, geopolitics, and the strategic challenges shaping the world today from a practitioner’s perspective.

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The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the host or the podcast

The United States and Israel are now at war with Iran. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, and regional escalation have reshaped the strategic landscape in a matter of days.

But the larger question remains:

What happens next inside Iran?

In this follow-up conversation, Scott Kelly is joined again by Zolal Habibi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine how one major opposition movement views this moment—and what they believe comes after.

This episode explores the practical, political, and strategic dimensions of regime change in real time.

Whether war strengthens or weakens the Iranian regime internally

The NCRI’s announcement of a provisional government

Claims of resistance activity inside Iran

The formation of a potential “Liberation Army”

Opposition unity and tensions with the monarchist camp

Kurdish autonomy vs. territorial integrity

The risk of state collapse and “Libya scenarios”

Whether foreign coordination is necessary—or dangerous

What a post-regime transition would actually require

Does war produce a rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran?

What would signal real regime fracture versus narrative momentum?

Can armed opposition movements coordinate without fragmenting?

What safeguards would prevent a cycle of revenge or state failure?

What confidence can be offered that Iran would not become the next failed state?

There are multiple competing Iranian opposition groups with different visions for Iran’s political future.

Zolal Habibi represents one of those organizations. Invitations have been extended to other factions—including representatives from the monarchist camp—to present their perspectives in future episodes.

The claims expressed in this conversation are those of the guest and her organization and may not be independently verifiable in real time.

Regime change is often discussed as a headline.

Much less often is it examined as a messy, structural process involving institutions, armed actors, coalition dynamics, and governance capacity.

This episode focuses on those mechanics—not just the rhetoric.

Ethan Brown returns to At the Water’s Edge to discuss the second volume of his JTAC trilogy, Visual Friendlies: Tally Target, which examines the evolution of close air support during the surge years in Iraq (2006–2008) and Afghanistan (2011–2013).

We explore how 20 years of uncontested air dominance reshaped American warfighting culture — from precision targeting in dense urban battle spaces to the rise of persistent ISR and smartphone-level situational awareness tools at the platoon level.

Key topics include:

How close air support evolved during the surge years

The relationship between ground commanders, JTACs, and pilots

Risk mitigation culture in the post-9/11 wars

Whether technological dominance created institutional dependency

NATO’s role at the tactical edge of the fight

Jointness as one of GWOT’s enduring legacies

The political-military divide and the importance of clearly defined end states

We also discuss what must be unlearned from GWOT as the U.S. military prepares for potential large-scale conflict in contested environments — where air superiority and persistent coverage may not be guaranteed.

This episode is a candid reflection on tactical excellence, institutional adaptation, and strategic ambiguity.

Ethan Brown is a former U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) specialist who served 11 years, including time embedded with the 75th Ranger Regiment as part of Air Force Special Tactics. He is the author of the JTAC trilogy, a detailed examination of close air support and air power integration during the post-9/11 wars.

Visual Friendlies: Tally Target

Available via Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Casemate Publishers.

Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for weekly long-form conversations on national security, civil-military relations, and emerging strategic challenges.

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Zolal Habibi, an activist affiliated with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine the structure, strategy, and claims of Iran’s organized opposition movement.

The conversation explores recent protest activity, internet shutdowns, disputed casualty figures, and the role of so-called “resistance units” operating inside Iran. Scott presses on difficult questions: When do protests evolve into insurgency? How durable is the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus? What would political transition actually look like? And how realistic are competing visions — from secular republic to monarchy restoration?

Topics include:

The significance of Tehran’s bazaar strikes

Nationwide protest dynamics and generational shifts

Internet blackouts and information verification challenges

Claims of organized “resistance units” operating inside Iran

Casualty reporting and the difficulty of independent confirmation

The historical designation and delisting of the MEK

Armed resistance and the “right to resist” debate

Competing opposition visions: republic vs. monarchy

Kurdish autonomy and territorial integrity

U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic

What a post-regime transition plan might entail

This discussion does not advocate for any particular faction. Instead, it examines how one organized resistance constituency conceptualizes escalation, legitimacy, and regime change — and where those assumptions warrant scrutiny.

Future episodes will examine regime durability, fragmentation risks, and competing analytical perspectives.

Episode: Jahara “Franky” Matisek (USAF Lt Col) — Fixing America’s Broken Arsenal

Guest: Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek, U.S. Air Force | PhD Political Science | prolific writer on strategy, security assistance, and the defense industrial base

What this episode is about

Key topics

Why the U.S. can be “tactically awesome” for a short fight—then hit limits in missiles, munitions, and sustainment

The “black box” problem: the government often lacks visibility into tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers

Why throwing money at production doesn’t automatically remove chokepoints (casings, propellant, and other bottlenecks)

The mine-to-missile reality: minerals, refining, machining, certification, and how China shows up at multiple points in the chain

The tradeoff between efficiency (markets) and resilience (surge capacity)—and why the market won’t fund resilience “as a charity”

Continuing resolutions, short funding cycles, and how uncertainty drives small suppliers out of the defense ecosystem

The workforce constraint: skilled trades, machinists, and why you “can’t Zoom-call the bolts into a submarine”

Strategic infrastructure beyond the obvious: power grids, pipelines, and data centers as a bedrock of modern command-and-control

Why “digital warfighting” runs into practical limits: electricity, cooling, transformers, copper, and long lead times

Notable quotes

“We can do great war stuff for about a week. Anything longer than that gets really hard.”

“Resilience isn’t something the market provides out of charity.”

“You can’t Zoom-call the nuts and bolts of making a submarine.”

“The defense industrial base is a black box—and that’s terrifying in a crisis.”

Referenced reading

Foreign Policy: “How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal” (Matisek and co-authors)

Additional related work discussed: resilience and industrial base commentary (FPRI)

Follow / connect

Scott Kelly — Host, At the Water’s Edge

Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek — USAF, scholar-practitioner on strategy and the defense industrial base

Call to action

Retired Major General Matt Smith joins Scott to unpack why veteran transition isn’t just a “feel-good” topic—it’s a long-term national security issue tied directly to readiness and recruiting. They discuss Emory University Goizueta Business School’s Master of Business for Veterans (MBV) Program, the importance of community during transition, and how veterans can translate military leadership into the “language of business.” This is a tactical conversation for leaders leaving uniform—and for employers who want to actually harness veteran talent.

Key Takeaways

Why how we treat the GWOT generation directly impacts future recruiting and readiness.

What the MBV is (and isn’t): “half an MBA,” built to give senior leaders the core business foundation.

The underrated value of grad school for vets: time, perspective, and exposure to “what’s possible.”

Why in-person cohort/community can be a force multiplier during the 1–2 year transition window.

How veterans should think about GI Bill ROI (and why everyone wants your benefits dollars).

The veteran “secret sauce” businesses miss: disciplined initiative + relentless after-action review mindset.

Why the chain of command often gives well-intentioned but wrong transition advice—and how to recalibrate.

“A PhD in the human condition”: the leadership dataset vets carry into any organization.

Quotes

“Transition is a process, not an event… it takes about two years.”

“Graduate business education exposes you to what’s in the realm of possible—and what you don’t want to do.”

“If you’re spending other people’s money, they won’t give it to you unless you know how to run a business.”

“Veterans bring disciplined initiative—the secret sauce of the American military.”

“You have a PhD in the human condition.”

Chapters

00:00 Why veteran transition is a national security issue

03:16 MG Matt Smith’s background + what the MBV is

06:58 Classroom dynamics: experience, discipline, and veteran accountability

13:12 2001 vs now: how academia’s view of veterans has changed

15:43 The “three buckets” of MBA value (skills, translation, time) + what’s missing

19:52 Timing grad school with retirement + the power of an in-person support system

24:28 “It’s okay not to know”—transition goals and changing plans

29:41 GI Bill ROI, reality checks, and why location/industry matters

31:03 “Business as a language course” + the PMP as translation

34:13 Doing anything you want (and failing fast) after service

39:49 “PhD in the human condition” and why vets don’t see their own value

44:15 Advice to employers: how to actually utilize veteran talent

47:14 MG Smith’s personal transition at the one-year mark

49:29 What Emory could do next + why society needs vets at places like Emory

54:22 Closing thoughts: GWOT ended quietly; transition didn’t—plus gratitude to Vietnam vets

🎙️ Episode Description

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly is joined by former Air Force pilots, Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) veterans, and military scholars to take on one of the most contentious debates in U.S. defense policy: should the A-10 Warthog be retired?

Drawing on combat experience from Iraq and Afghanistan, Pentagon planning, and military history from World War II to Ukraine, the panel makes a clear case that retiring the A-10 isn’t about obsolescence—it’s about priorities. They break down what close air support (CAS) actually requires, why multi-role fighters like the F-35 cannot replace a dedicated CAS platform, and what is lost when institutional knowledge and CAS culture disappear.

This is a ground-truth conversation about war as it is actually fought—low, slow, close, and unforgiving—and why the A-10 still matters in an era of great-power competition.

Steve Call — Former B-52 pilot, Pentagon strategist, military historian, author of Danger Close

Nathan Bachand — Former TACP, Air National Guard, PhD historian, founder of the TACP Foundation

Conan Higgins — Former TACP with 25 years of service, former law enforcement officer, PhD in international law, author on crisis leadership

What the A-10 was actually designed to do—and why that mission still exists

The difference between dedicated CAS and “CAS as a checkbox”

Why speed, stealth, and altitude don’t replace loiter time, visibility, and survivability

The limits of the F-16 and F-35 in real close-air-support scenarios

CAS as an offensive enabler, not just a defensive backstop

Lessons from World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Taiwan war games

Why drones and light attack aircraft are not true A-10 replacements

Institutional incentives, budget priorities, and the Air Force–Army divide

What ground troops lose when CAS culture disappears

Close Air Support is not obsolete—it has been deprioritized

No existing aircraft replaces the A-10’s combination of survivability, loiter time, and firepower

CAS requires people, culture, and repetition, not just sensors and software

Future wars will still put soldiers in the mud—and they will still need air support they can trust

“You can atomize terrain from the air forever—but if you want to keep it, you put young men in the mud.”

“The sound of the A-10 gun is the hand of God saying: don’t worry, I’ve got you.”

“If the F-35 had outperformed the A-10, you’d already know about it.”

CAS — Close Air Support

TACP — Tactical Air Control Party

JTAC — Joint Terminal Attack Controller

FACA — Forward Air Controller (Airborne)

In this episode, Scott and LTG (ret.) Walt Piatt discuss the critical issue of supporting veterans as they transition from military to civilian life. They explore the role of the Wounded Warrior Project in providing essential services, the challenges veterans face in reintegration, and the importance of finding purpose after service. The conversation also delves into the complexities of navigating the VA system, the future of veteran support, and the pressing need for mental health resources. Walt emphasizes the importance of community support and the need for veterans to connect with one another to overcome their struggles.

Takeaways

Veterans face significant challenges when transitioning to civilian life.

The Wounded Warrior Project plays a vital role in supporting veterans.

Finding purpose is crucial for veterans after service.

The VA system can be complex and difficult to navigate.

Community support is essential for veterans' mental health.

Veterans should not feel alone in their struggles.

There is a need for better mental health resources for veterans.

The stigma around seeking help is decreasing.

Veterans are valuable members of society and should be supported.

Trustworthy organizations are essential for helping veterans.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Personal Connections

03:13 Wounded Warrior Project: Mission and Impact

04:11 Transitioning from Military to Civilian Life

07:15 Challenges Veterans Face in Reintegration

10:03 Finding Purpose After Service

13:17 Navigating the VA System

16:14 Bureaucratic Challenges and Solutions

23:12 The Importance of Supporting Veterans

25:18 Transitioning from War: The Future of Veteran Support

27:56 The Ongoing Battle: Mental Health and Suicide Among Veterans

33:23 Finding Purpose: The Path to Healing

36:39 Addressing Mental Health: The Need for Immediate Support

46:31 Navigating the Veteran Service Organization Ecosystem

53:08 A Message to Veterans: You're Not Alone