At the Water's Edge

Drones are already reshaping modern warfare—from Ukraine to the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz.

In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it.

Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that unmanned systems are not just another capability—they are fundamentally changing how wars are fought. In some cases, they are already responsible for the majority of casualties and are allowing low-resource actors to punch far above their weight.

The question is what comes next.

For decades, U.S. Army Special Forces have operated as 12-man teams built around advising and enabling partner forces. But if future conflicts are dominated by drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea, that model may no longer be enough.

Kowalski makes the case that Special Forces must adapt—structurally, not just tactically—including the potential need for new roles, new training pipelines, and a fundamental rethink of how teams are organized and deployed.

This conversation explores:
– Why drone warfare is accelerating faster than most militaries can adapt
– How non-state actors are using cheap systems to create strategic effects
– What the U.S. is getting right—and where it may still be behind
– How Special Forces could evolve to remain relevant in future conflicts

If the current trajectory continues, the next major conflict won’t look like Iraq or Afghanistan.

It will look very different.

And the time to adapt is now.

This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time.

Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz.

But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental:

👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics.

In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements.

Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult.

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups?

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last.

They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity.

The conversation also covers:

This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next.

Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke

Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/

This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time.

Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war:

But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more structural:

👉 We are deep in the escalation trap—and there may be no easy off-ramp.

Conflicts like this don’t just escalate because of battlefield decisions.

They escalate because neither side can accept the outcome of stopping.

That’s the trap.

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran.

But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong?

In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines.

They discuss why the Iranian regime has remained in power despite widespread opposition, how authority is really structured inside the system, and why the lack of a coherent opposition movement may be the single biggest factor shaping Iran’s future.

The conversation also explores:

This is a grounded, inside look at Iran’s political reality—and what policymakers, analysts, and the public often get wrong.

This is Part 3 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict in real time.

Over the past week, several developments have shifted the trajectory of the war:

But the most important shift, according to Pape, is this:

👉 The “short war illusion” is over.

His article in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

The expectation that this conflict would remain limited is fading—and that changes how governments, markets, and military planners respond.

Wars don’t just evolve based on what happens on the battlefield.

They evolve based on what people believe is going to happen next.

And that shift may already be underway.

In the next episode, we examine a deeper question:

👉 Is this conflict changing the global balance of power?

Pape argues that Iran may be emerging as a fourth center of world power—a claim that has major implications for how this war unfolds.

New episodes released weekly tracking the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict.

At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging the gap between theory and real-world decision-making.

🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 Looking ahead:🎧 Follow the series:📡 About the show:

Most people think AI is ready for modern warfare.
It’s not.
In this episode, I sit down with Tyler Saltsman, Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, to break down what artificial intelligence can actually do on the battlefield—and where it falls short.
Tyler is building domain-specific AI models designed to operate directly on-device, enabling warfighters to make better decisions in real time without relying on internet connectivity.
We discuss:
- Why many commercial AI models refuse real-world military tasks
- The problem with bias, guardrails, and lack of transparency in current AI systems
- Why AI must operate offline in contested environments
- The gap between Silicon Valley and the warfighter
- The biggest bottlenecks inside DoD acquisition and procurement (ATO, OTA)
- How AI is changing tactical decision-making at the unit level
- The risks of relying on a small number of dominant AI labs
We also get into the realities of building a defense tech company today, and what it takes to move from prototype to fielded capability.
This is a grounded, operator-level conversation about AI in warfare—focused on execution, not hype.
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About the Guest:
Tyler Saltsman is the Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, a defense technology company building domain-specific AI models for military applications. He previously worked at AWS, where he was involved in large-scale AI model training and infrastructure development.
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Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for conversations with operators, policymakers, and builders shaping the future of national security.

This is Part 2 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) breaking down the escalation dynamics of the current conflict with Iran. Follow him at his substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

Over the past week, the situation has evolved rapidly:

In this conversation, we focus on one question:

👉 Where are we now?

According to Pape, the answer is clear:

We are now in the “escalation trap” — and nearing Stage 3.

That next phase could mark a critical turning point, potentially triggering:

Military success does not always translate into strategic advantage.

In fact, as Pape explains, it can create the very dynamics that deepen and prolong conflict.

If you’re interested in practitioner-level insights on national security and geopolitics:

Episode Title:
The Drone Threat Is Already Here

Episode Description:

Drones are no longer just a battlefield problem.

From Ukraine to the Middle East, unmanned systems are reshaping how wars are fought—cheap, scalable, and increasingly accessible to both states and non-state actors.

But the most important shift may not be happening overseas.

It’s happening at home.

In this episode, Scott sits down with Paul Lushenko, Chief Strategist at Joint Interagency Task Force 401, the U.S. military’s newest effort to coordinate a whole-of-government approach to countering drones.

Drawing on both operational experience and research, Lushenko breaks down how drone warfare is evolving, what we’re learning from Ukraine and the current conflict with Iran, and why defending the U.S. homeland against drones is far more complex than most people realize.

“This isn’t just a capability reserved for distant battlefields. It’s on our shores. It’s on the southern border. It’s at stadiums.”

Paul Lushenko is the Chief Strategist for Joint Interagency Task Force 401, where he helps synchronize U.S. military and interagency efforts to counter drone threats at home and abroad.

He is a career Army officer with nearly two decades of experience supporting special operations and has conducted extensive research on drone warfare, military innovation, and the integration of AI into modern conflict.

Drone warfare is no longer confined to distant battlefields.

As the technology spreads and becomes more accessible, the United States faces a new kind of challenge—one that requires not just better technology, but better integration across the military, government, and society.

This conversation explores what that future looks like—and how prepared we really are.

Follow At the Water’s Edge for conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the future of warfare from a practitioner’s perspective.

🔑 Key Topics Covered🎯 Key Insight🎙️ About the Guest📌 Why This Episode Matters🔗 Listen / Follow

The Escalation Trap: Robert Pape on Iran, Airpower, and Strategic Failure

Description:

What if the biggest risk in war isn’t failure—but success?

In this episode, I’m joined by Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence.

As the conflict with Iran escalates, Professor Pape explains why what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of military exchanges—but a predictable pattern he calls the “escalation trap.”

A dynamic where each step forward reduces control, increases pressure to escalate, and makes it harder to achieve political objectives.

We break down:

This is a practitioner-focused conversation on how wars actually work—and where this one may be headed.

Note:

Timestamps: