Marking one year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren reflect on what they have learned, what surprised them, and how they each are thinking about the path ahead.

We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

“Ukrainian foreign minister responds to Amanpour's 'painful' question about war” (video), CNN, 21 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tShC67Xp8m8

Olga Oliker, “Fighting While Female: How Gender Dynamics Are Shaping the War in Ukraine”, Foreign Affairs, 21 November 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/fighting-while-female

Dominic Johnson et al, “Overconfidence in wargames: experimental evidence on expectations, aggression, gender and testosterone”, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Vol. 273, pp. 2513-2520: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3606

China Matters Oration by the Hon Dr Kevin Rudd AC (video), 18 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rlrkT8BXlg

George Winston, “Summer” (1991): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_(George_Winston_album)

Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests (Columbia University Press, 2022): http://cup.columbia.edu/book/backfire/9780231199902

The “Chinese spy balloon” has dominated news for the past few weeks and thus Allan and Darren feel compelled to open the episode with their views. FM Penny Wong’s speech in the UK sparked controversy for her comments on colonial history, or did it? Meanwhile, a successful 2+2 with France highlighted how far the relationship has come since a low point in late 2020. DM Richard Marles spoke to parliament on the question of sovereignty and defence capabilities, while International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants to see more development specialists in leadership roles at DFAT.

We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

“Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program, U.S. says”, Washington Post, 7 February 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/

Penny Wong, “TV interview with Michael Rowland, ABC News Breakfast”, 6 February 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-michael-rowland-abc-news-breakfast

Penny Wong, “An enduring partnership in an era of change”, Speech, Centre for Grand Strategy, King's College, London, 31 January 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/enduring-partnership-era-change

Hans van Leeuwen, “Why Wong got a walloping in Britain this week”, Australian Financial Review, 3 February 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-penny-got-a-pounding-in-britain-this-week-20230203-p5chne

Richard Marles, “Securing Australia’s Sovereignty”, Statement to Parliament, 9 February 2023: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-02-09/securing-australias-sovereignty

Matthew Knot, “‘AUKUS will enhance sovereignty’: Marles dismisses Keating, Turnbull concerns”, Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aukus-will-enhance-sovereignty-marles-dismisses-keating-turnbull-concerns-20230208-p5cj1q.html  

Stephen Dziedzic, “International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants AusAID to regain prominence within DFAT”, ABC News, 9 February 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-09/pat-conroy-dfat-wants-development-specialists-ausaid-/101951876

“Anthony Albanese on navigating an insecure world”, Guardian Australia, Australian Politics Podcast, 4 February 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world

(Podcast Transcript: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/podcast-interview-guardian-australia-politics-podcast )

Annie Ernaux, “The years” (book): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-years-9781609807870

Jim Chalmers, “Capitalism after the crisis”, The Monthly, February 2023: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2023/february/jim-chalmers/capitalism-after-crises#mtr

Noah Smith, “Vertical communities”, Noahpinion (substack), 27 January 2023: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/vertical-communities

To kick off 2023, Allan and Darren continue their practice of asking how the events of previous year caused them to update their models of international affairs. But first they discuss PM Albanese's visit to Papua New Guinea and speech to the PNG parliament, and also a curious spat between the ambassadors to Australia from China and Japan, which leads to a larger discussion of different models of ambassador, and what a “Rudd model” might look like now that former PM Kevin Rudd has been named Australia’s next ambassador to the United States.

We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Anthony Albanese, “A bond between equals”, Speech to the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/bond-between-equals

Press conference – Port Moresby, PNG and Australian PMs, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-port-moresby

Matthew Knot, “Taiwan cannot be sacrificed to China, says Japan’s ambassador to Australia”, Sydney Morning Herald, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taiwan-cannot-be-sacrificed-to-china-says-japan-s-ambassador-to-australia-20230112-p5cc30.html

Embassy of Japan in Australia, Ambassador’s speeches, media contributions, interviews: https://www.au.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/ambassador_media_speech.html

Tyson Yunkaporta. Sand Talk: How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World, Text publishing: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/sand-talk

14 Peaks: Nothing is impossible (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81464765

Free solo (Disney Plus): https://films.nationalgeographic.com/free-solo

Allan and Darren welcome Tim Watts MP, Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs.

This is a new role—what does it involve, and how does it contribute to the current global ‘race for influence’? On a personal level, what has the transition into government been like?

Given the centrality placed by the Albanese government on identity in Australia’s foreign policy, Darren asks the Minister for his perspective on why it matters. The discussion turns to soft power and the moment when newly elected MP Sam Lim’s first speech to parliament went viral in Malaysia.

The conversation then ranges widely. What did the Minister learn on the balance between regional and global during recent trips to South America and Africa? What is needed to upgrade Australia’s “diplomatic fire power”? The point is made that video production skills might be as important as cable writing skills for the modern diplomat! What ideas should Australia be persuading the region about? What does the Minister’s diverse and multicultural electorate think of his job? Does foreign policy have a role in strengthening democracy? And how has the Labor government managed to present a unified position on foreign policy so far? Finally, how does the Minister inform himself beyond what comes through government channels? 

Relevant links

Tim Watts, ‘The Golden Country: Australia’s Changing Identity’, 2019: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/the-golden-country-australia-s-changing-identity

Clare O’Neil and Tim Watts, ‘Two Futures: Australia at a Critical Moment’, 2015: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/two-futures

 Penny Wong, ‘Special lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies - A shared future: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia’, Singapore, 6 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/special-lecture-international-institute-strategic-studies-shared-future-australia-asean-and-southeast-asia

Tim Watts, 'Asialink Leaders Summit opening keynote - Australia’s place in Asia’, Canberra, 16 August 2022: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/tim-watts/speech/asialink-leaders-summit-opening-keynote-australias-place-asia

Joseph S. Nye, ‘Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics’, 2005: https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/joseph-s-nye/soft-power/9780786738960/

Sam Lim, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 6 September 2022: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=588997&operation_mode=parlview

Sally Sitou, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 26 July 2022: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=584964

Tim Watts, ‘First Speech to Parliament’, Canberra, 2 December 2013: https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=212795#/4

National Intelligence Council, ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’, March 2021: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf

Clare O’Neil, ‘Home Affairs and the long view - National Press Club Address’, Canberra, 8 December 2022: https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/ClareONeil/Pages/national-press-club-address.aspx

Dimitri Alperovitch, ‘Geopolitics Decanted’: https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/ 

Damon Gadget, ‘The Promise’, 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-promise-9781529113877

Kabir Khan, ’83’, 2021: https://www.netflix.com/title/81144147

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has delivered (yet) another speech, this time in Washington DC, and Darren thinks it’s a big deal. Is he overreacting? Meanwhile, Allan draws some interesting contrasts analysing the recent 2+2s Australia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers held with their US counterparts (AUSMIN) and then with Japan, and also summarises what we know about the Labor government’s foreign policy so far. Darren’s word of the year is ‘polycrisis’ and he (tries to) explain why, while Allan’s is ‘statecraft’.

We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Penny Wong, “Speech to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace”, Washington DC, 7 December 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-carnegie-endowment-international-peace

Richard Marles, “Sasakawa Peace Foundation Speech”, Tokyo, 9 December 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/speeches/2022-12-09/sasakawa-peace-foundation-speech

Doug Palmer, “WTO says Trump's steel tariffs violated global trade rules”, Politico, 9 December 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/wto-ruling-trump-tariffs-violate-rules-00073282

Joint Statement on Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/joint-statement-australia-us-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2022

Tenth Japan-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations, Joint Statement, 9 December 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/tenth-japan-australia-22-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-consultations

Penny Wong, “Why I’m imposing sanctions on human rights abusers”, Sydney Morning Herald, 10 December 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/penny-wong-why-i-m-imposing-sanctions-on-human-rights-abusers-20221209-p5c51i.html?btis

Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #130 Defining polycrisis - from crisis pictures to the crisis matrix”, 24 June 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-130-defining-polycrisis

Reuters, “Factbox: Energy crisis revives coal demand and production”, 20 October 2022: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-crisis-revives-coal-demand-production-2022-10-19/

Tim Schauenberg, “COP27 host Egypt criticized for climate targets, repression”, Deutsche Welle, 6 November 2022: https://www.dw.com/en/cop27-in-sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-human-rights-violations-and-other-issues-making-waves/a-63624720

Guardian Australia, “Penny Wong on stabilising Australia’s relationship with China”, 26 November 2022: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2022/nov/26/penny-wong-on-stabilising-australias-relationship-with-china

National Security Podcast, “Gareth Evans on repositioning Australia for a new age of geopolitics”, 1 December 2022: https://www.policyforum.net/national-security-podcast-australias-new-geopolitical-outlook/

Ross Douthat, “Hootie and the Blowfish and the End of History”, New York Times, 9 December 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/opinion/chatbot-hootie-friends.html

While the previous episode came after more than a month, this episode comes just a week later, with the G20 meetings setting the stage for a ground-breaking bilateral meeting between PM Albanese and President Xi, as well as Xi meeting with President Biden. Allan and Darren focus on those two meetings before considering whether the G20 can play a role in geopolitical issues.

This past week has also been a big week for speeches, with FM Wong delivering the Whitlam Oration, and DPM Marles speaking at the Australia institute. Speeches are the bread and butter of this podcast, so Allan and Darren dive in. The podcast concludes on a (slightly) optimistic note in the wake of the US midterm elections.

We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing today and bid farewell with thanks to Atikah Mekki whose time with us has come to an end. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

PM Albanese, Meeting with China’s president Xi Jingping, Media Statement, 15 Nov 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/meeting-chinas-president-xi-jinping

Xinhua, “Xi meetgs Australian PM Albanese”, 16 Nov 2022: https://english.news.cn/20221116/17f91337b9c6439aa779d7a03ecc29cb/c.html

PM Albanese, Press Conference, Bali, 15 Nov 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-bali-indonesia

Ben Herscovitch, “Leader-level meetings and did China just drop its expectations of Australia?”, Beijing to Canberra and Back (Substack), 17 Nov 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/leader-level-meetings-and-did-china

“China's President Xi Jinping confronts Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96pZRU7zm4

Scott Kennedy, “Xi-Biden Meeting May Help End China’s Destructive Isolation”, Foreign Policy, 14 Nov 2022: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/14/xi-biden-meeting-china-isolation/

G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, 15-16 Nov 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/

Penny Wong, Whitlam Oration, 13 Nov 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/whitlam-oration

Richard Marles, Address to the Sydney Institute Annual Dinner Lecture, 14 Nov 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/speeches/2022-11-14/address-sydney-institute-annual-dinner-lecture

Sinica (podcast), “The planetary politics of Anne-Marie Slaughter”, 10 Nov 2022: https://thechinaproject.com/2022/11/10/the-planetary-politics-of-anne-marie-slaughter/

Hamish Blake, How Other Dad’s Dad (podcast): https://howotherdadsdad.com/

The 1975, Being funny in a foreign language (album): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_Funny_in_a_Foreign_Language

Taylor Swift, “Anti-hero” (song): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YgtjHZyCIQ

After a month away, Allan and Darren try to make sense of a big month of news. They start with the Chinese Community Party’s 20th Party Congress, where President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented 3rd term as leader, and (somewhat more surprisingly) was completely successful in elevating loyalists to the Party’s inner leadership circle. Is China just a ‘normal’ authoritarian country now?

Next, in what is arguably the most significant policy decision affecting US-China relations in decades, the Biden Administration has imposed sweeping new controls on the export of semiconductors and other advanced technologies to China. These are perceived to be ‘force multipliers’ and thus necessary to curtail China’s military development. The issue is that they are also widely used in commercial technologies, and Beijing will thus perceive this as economic “containment”. Allan talks through the implications for Australia and Darren offers his cost/benefit analysis of the policy.

Finally, the past month has also been extremely busy in Australian foreign policy! Allan and Darren opt to focus on Japanese PM Kishida’s visit to Australia and the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation that resulted. Allan explains the history of bilateral cooperation, while Darren uses the Declaration to (begin to) give some form to a theory of Australian foreign policy under the new government.

We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Scott Waldron, Darren J. Lim, Victor Ferguson, “Exploring the Domestic Foundations of Chinese Economic Sanctions: The Case of Australia”, China Brief 22(18), October 4, 2022: https://jamestown.org/program/exploring-the-domestic-foundations-of-chinese-economic-sanctions-the-case-of-australia/

Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies (forthcoming): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377

Andrew Nathan, “China’s changing of the guard: Authoritarian resilience”, Journal of democracy 14(1), 2003: https://www.cecc.gov/sites/chinacommission.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/2004/CECC%20Hearing%20Testimony%20-%20Andrew%20Nathan%20additional%20PDF%20-%206.3.04.pdf

Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the Special Competitive Studies Project Global Emerging Technologies Summit, 16 September 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/16/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-at-the-special-competitive-studies-project-global-emerging-technologies-summit/

Darren Lim and Victor Ferguson, “Conscious decoupling: The technology security dilemma”, China Dreams (China Story Yearbook 2019): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3484171

Zack Cooper, “he fundamental tension in Biden’s national security strategy”, Channel News Asia, 29 October 2022: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-biden-national-security-strategy-russia-china-asia-3030556

Isabella Keith, “11 November 2022: The Week in Australian Foreign Affairs”, Australian Outlook, 11 November 2022: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/11-november-2022-the-week-in-australian-foreign-affairs/

Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, 22 October 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/countries/japan/australia-japan-joint-declaration-security-cooperation

Anthony Albanese and Kishida Fumio, Opening remarks – Australia Japan Leaders’ Meeting, 22 October 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/opening-remarks-australia-japan-leaders-meeting

Everything everywhere all at once (film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_Everywhere_All_at_Once

Michael Wesley, “The war in Ukraine: implications for Asia”, Lowy Interpreter, 28 October 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/war-ukraine-implications-asia

George Packer, “Ukrainians are defending the values Americans claim to hold”, The Atlantic, 6 September 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/10/ukraine-invasion-civilian-volunteers-survival/671241/

Jason Bordoff and Meghan O’Sullivan, “Green upheaval: The new geopolitics of energy”, Foreign Affairs Jan/Fen 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-11-30/geopolitics-energy-green-upheaval

ChinaTalk podcast (on export controls, see episodes on 11 Oct and 4 Nov)

Trade Talks podcast, Ep 170, “National security, semiconductors, and the US move to cut off China”, 2 November 2022: https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/170-national-security-semiconductors-and-the-us-move-to-cut-off-china/

The Prince (podcast), Bonus: 20th party congress, 31 October 2022: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/10/31/bonus-20th-party-congress

Ukraine has made significant battlefield gains in the past month, changing the dynamics of the Russian invasion, leading to a partial Russian troop mobilisation and threats by Vladimir Putin of tactical nuclear weapons use. Allan and Darren talk through these dynamics, in particular Putin’s decision-making calculus and what the rest of the world must do to deter nuclear escalation, including the uncomfortable possibility that NATO’s interests and  Ukraine’s interests could diverge in the future.

FM Penny Wong led the Australian delegation to the United National General Assembly Meetings in New York. Allan and Darren begin with the welcoming speech of Secretary General António Guterres, discussing whether the office of the SG and the UN remain relevant in the current fractured geopolitical landscape. Then they turn to Australia’s statement to UNGA, delivered by Penny Wong, and how it was similar to, and different from, previous statements in recent years. One notable focus this year was on First Nations Australians.

Finally, having recently participated in a “Track 1.5” dialogue, Allan reflects on the purpose and function of this type of diplomacy.

We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. 

Relevant links

“Read Putin’s national address on a partial military mobilization”, Washington Post, 21 September 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-war-mobilization/ 

Gideon Rachman, “Putin’s nuclear threats cannot be ignored”, Financial Times, 26 

Rohan Mukherjee, “China and India weren’t critical of Putin’s war. Did that change?”, 

António Guterres, Secretary-General's address to the General Assembly, 20 September 2022: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2022-09-20/secretary-generals-address-the-general-assembly

Mark Beeson, “Guterres whistles in the wind”, Lowy Interpreter, 21 September 2022: 

Penny Wong, National Statement to the UN General Assembly, New York, 23 September 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/statements/national-statement-un-general-assembly-new-york 

Julie Bishop, Australia's National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2017: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/speech/australias-national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly 

Marise Payne, National Statement - United Nations General Assembly, 28 September 2018: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/national-statement-united-nations-general-assembly

Quarterly Essay, “Uncivil wars”, QE 87, September 2022: 

“On The Air with Gerry Anderson: Hypno Hen” (youtube): 

In this episode Darren picks up on a comment Allan has made several times on the podcast (including the previous episode) about the need for the Australian government to make a formal statement on China. To Allan this is a statement of the obvious, but the two find a surprising amount to disagree upon on the merits of the Prime Minister or Foreign Minister giving a major speech on Australia’s relationship with China. Allan outlines the benefits and how a speech might be structured, while Darren worries about the risks, and contrasts different approaches in speeches from the US Secretary of State and the Singaporean Prime Minister. The episode concludes by noting the death of Australia’s Head of State, Queen Elizabeth II, and some thoughts on the role of the monarch in Australian foreign policy.

We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China, 31 August 2022: https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/country-reports/ohchr-assessment-human-rights-concerns-xinjiang-uyghur-autonomous-region

Penny Wong, “Human rights concerns in Xinjiang”, Ministerial Statement, 1 September 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/statements/human-rights-concerns-xinjiang

Chinese Embassy Spokesperson’s Remarks on the Ministerial statement on human rights in Xinjiang by DFAT, 6 September 2022: http://au.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sghdxwfb_1/202209/t20220906_10762674.htm

Stuart Doran, “Australia refused to endorse China’s claim to Taiwan in 1972 because it foresaw a time like this”, ASPI Strategist, 7 September 2022: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-refused-to-endorse-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-in-1972-because-it-foresaw-a-time-like-this/

Secretary Blinken Speech: The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China, Washington DC, 26 May 2022: https://au.usembassy.gov/secretary-blinken-speech-the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china/

PM Lee Hsien Loong at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2019, 31 May 2019: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019

European Commission and HR/VP contribution to the European Council, “EU-China – A strategic outlook”, 12 March 2019: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdf

Scott Morrison, “Speech at Chinese-Australian Community Event”, 4 October 2018: https://china.embassy.gov.au/bjng/181005pmspeech.html

Andrew Sullivan, “An icon, not an idol”, The Weekly Dish (Substack), 10 September 2022: https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/an-icon-not-an-idol-71f

The rest is politics (podcast): https://shows.acast.com/the-rest-is-politics

Mark Harrison, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 10 September 2022: https://twitter.com/mhar4/status/1568467164616871937?s=12&t=KFYS6frsFPq3VstL5iW0iQ

Rory Medcalf, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 8 September 2022: https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/department-news/20571/sleepwalk-war-correspondence

Kevin Rudd, “Correspondence: Sleepwalk to war - Quarterly Essay”, 8 September 2022: https://www.kevinrudd.com/media/correspondence-sleepwalk-to-war-quarterly-essay  

Sam Lim MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gEYwSAjaeM

Dai Le MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORkHpdYZezY

Keith Wolahan MP, First Speech to Parliament, 6 September 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iCPnV2sIw4

Taiwan represents possibly the most intractable issue in international affairs, but also one of the most important. Arguably, no theory or opinion on the biggest questions Australian foreign policy can be complete, or maybe even credible, until it grapples with the Taiwan issue. And so on this episode Allan and Darren use the occasion of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island to sort through their views.

Be warned, this is a long and wonkish episode! But more so than perhaps anything else discussed on the podcast, Taiwan requires the time and space to lay out one’s views and have them challenged.

The episode concludes with a quick update on Australia-China relations, given the Chinese Ambassador’s recent speech at the National Press Club.

We bid farewell Annabel Howard and thank her so much for all her help, and welcome Atikah Mekki and thank her for audio editing today, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

James Fearon, “Rationalist explanations for war”, International Organization, Volume 49 Issue 3 (1995): https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf

Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay, 27 June 2022: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/sleepwalk-war

Michael Beckley, Zack Cooper, and Allison Schwartz, “Deterring Coercion and Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait”, American Enterprise Institute: https://www.defendingtaiwan.com/deterring-coercion-and-conflict-across-the-taiwan-strait/

James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Taiwan’s Navy: Able to Deny Command of the Sea?”, China Brief Volume 10, Issue 8 (2010): https://jamestown.org/program/taiwans-navy-able-to-deny-command-of-the-sea/

Bonnie Glaser and Zack Cooper, “Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous” New York Times, 28 July 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html

Ben Herscovitch, “Australia’s shifting statements on Taiwan, China’s changed tone, and coal exports”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 4 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-shifting-statements-on

Ambassador Xiao Qian, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China, Speech to National Press Club (video), 10 August 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeHRtmWJ68

China's ambassador to Australia addresses National Press Club ⁠— as it happened (Live Blog), ABC News, 10 August 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/live-updates-xiao-qian-addresses-national-press-club/101318252

Ben Herscovitch, “Beijing (re)embraces one-China disinformation plus aggregate leader-level meetings”, Beijing to Canberra and Back” (newsletter), 31 August 2022: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/beijing-reembraces-one-china-disinformation

Gatra Priyandita, Dirk Van Der Kley and Ben Herscovitch, “Localization and China’s Tech Success in Indonesia”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 July 2022: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/11/localization-and-china-s-tech-success-in-indonesia-pub-87477

Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china

Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: US foreign policy and the perilous logic of zero-sum competition”, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition

The Sandman (TV): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81150303