The closest giant galaxy to the Milky Way is Messier 31, the Andromeda Galaxy. It’s two-and-a-half million light-years away. But it’s getting closer – by about 250,000 miles every hour.

For more than a decade, in fact, it’s looked like the two galaxies were on a collision course. But a recent study says there’s only a 50-50 chance of a collision and merger. And if it does happen, it’ll take place billions of years later than previous estimates.

The new study used years of observations by two space telescopes – Hubble and Gaia. Researchers plugged those observations into simulations that also considered the gravitational effects of two smaller galaxies. The results indicated that one of them tends to push Andromeda and the Milky Way together, while the other tends to pull them apart.

The researchers ran a hundred thousand simulations. In half of them, Andromeda and the Milky Way flew past each other and went their own ways. In the other half, they eventually spiraled together and merged – but not for at least 10 billion years – twice as long as earlier estimates.

The simulations aren’t the final word – there are just too many uncertainties. But for now, it seems likely that the two giants will stay apart for a long, long time.

M31 is in the northeast at nightfall. Under dark skies, it’s visible as a hazy patch of light. Binoculars make it easier to pick out.

Script by Damond Benningfield