Kirill Krylov discusses how a more stable but directionless rate environment is shifting MBS returns away from volatility-driven spread tightening and toward carry and demand support. He examines the evolving role of GSE buying, highlighting a transition from a steady policy bid to a more opportunistic, price-sensitive backstop that stabilizes spreads. The episode also explores a notable shift in bank behavior, as larger institutions begin to embrace seasoned 30-year MBS for their improved convexity and yield characteristics. Finally, Kirill highlights the growing importance of closing costs as a source of geographic prepayment dispersion, where transaction friction is increasingly shaping borrower behavior and call protection at the pool level.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss a more cautious near-term outlook for MBS as valuations remain tight and supply is set to increase against a backdrop of uneven demand. They explore how GSE buying behavior is evolving from a constant bid to a more conditional, price-sensitive backstop that stabilizes spreads rather than compresses them. The episode also examines the rollout of VantageScore alongside traditional Fair Isaac Corporation models, and how increased borrower optionality could reshape prepayment behavior and reduce call protection in legacy low-FICO pools.

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov discusses how improving technicals, declining volatility, and strong performance in production coupons are shifting the return profile in MBS from spread compression toward carry. He highlights the evolving demand landscape, with banks moderating as valuations tighten while asset managers and foreign investors begin to re-engage. The episode also explores duration extension dynamics across the index and why securitized sectors are driving changes beneath the surface. Finally, Kirill examines recent servicing developments and explains why large portfolio transfers may have a more gradual and nuanced impact on prepayment behavior than headline risk might suggest.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss how markets are digesting a recent energy-driven shock, with inflation pressures rising in the near term even as growth expectations begin to soften. They explore why this tension is keeping rates range-bound and how a potential decline in volatility could create a more constructive backdrop for MBS, particularly in production coupons. The episode also examines the growing role of property taxes as a structural driver of housing affordability and prepayment behavior across regions. Finally, they revisit the resurgence of adjustable-rate mortgages and explain how widening spreads versus fixed rates are making ARMs a practical affordability tool in today’s market.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss the evolving technical backdrop for agency MBS, including continued support from GSE portfolios and renewed demand from banks. They also examine how market stability has benefited from the absence of forced selling. The episode concludes with a discussion of changes to the VA loss mitigation waterfall and the potential impact on Ginnie Mae prepayment speeds and buyout activity.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss the growing risk of a stagflationary macro environment as energy prices rise and the yield curve continues to flatten. They revisit their bank demand outlook and explain why changing capital rules and improved regulatory clarity could bring banks back as a meaningful long-term buyer of MBS. The episode also explores the proposed Road to Housing Act and how housing policy decisions could ultimately shape mortgage origination and long-term agency MBS supply.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss widening mortgage spreads amid rising Treasury yields and a Fed that remains firmly in wait-and-see mode. They examine the persistent U.S. housing shortage and the growing impact of mortgage rate lock-in on market turnover. The episode then dives into the classic New York specified pool story, explaining how the state’s mortgage recording tax and CEMA refinancing process create powerful call protection for agency MBS investors. Finally, they examine the rebranding of PHH Mortgage to Onity and why servicing transfers of delinquent loans could accelerate resolution activity and affect prepayment speeds.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer review February’s prepayment report and explain why refinancing activity is increasingly concentrated in the higher coupons of the stack as modest rate rallies begin to test refinance thresholds. They then explore the growing importance of appraisal waivers, or Property Inspection Waivers (PIWs), and how removing the traditional appraisal bottleneck is subtly changing refinance friction and convexity dynamics across mortgage pools. The episode closes with a look at the “hidden” side of housing affordability, where rising property taxes and insurance costs are quietly consuming a larger share of the monthly mortgage payment.

Kirill Krylov flies solo today to examine the market implications of escalating geopolitical tensions along with renewed volatility and what that could mean for mortgage spreads and GSE purchase activity. He breaks down the powerful technical backdrop created by record fixed income inflows and increased retained portfolio flexibility at Fannie and Freddie. The episode then turns to proposed MSR capital reforms and rising FHA delinquencies, exploring how shifts in servicing economics and borrower stress could gradually reshape prepayment behavior across the agency markets. 

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer unpack a January housing slowdown driven more by weather and normalization than structural weakness, while highlighting a meaningful shift in buyer leverage and rising discounts off list prices. They then turn to household balance sheets, where climbing credit card delinquencies reveal a growing K-shaped dynamic that could dampen refinancing behavior in higher-coupon Ginnie cohorts. The episode closes with a deep dive into the GSE cash window, examining how competitive execution, selective collateral retention, and shrinking specified pool lists may be quietly reshaping supply, convexity dispersion, and market structure.