Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer address fears that GSE MBS buying could crowd out private investors, and explain why the data instead point to strong demand with a meaningful shift from active to passive flows. The episode also tackles the institutional investor executive order, rising political and inflation uncertainty, and a housing market caught between improving buyer interest and stubbornly tight supply.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore the tighter spreads in MBS post GSE purchase announcement, and why some investors are now hesitant to board the “government train.” They dive into where that demand is likely to land across UMBS, Ginnies, and structured products, and why execution, hedging, and net supply constraints matter as much as the headline. The episode also covers rising policy risk around FHA mortgage insurance changes and a reality check on new-home sales, where volume has improved but at the cost of pricing power.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer break down the large-scale GSE MBS buying program announced last week and why a fast, visible policy fix may carry meaningful second-order consequences for market structure, supply, and long-term affordability. They highlight 2025’s historically low net MBS issuance and record-high CMO activity. The episode also tackles why banning institutional homebuyers is unlikely to fix affordability and what all of this means for positioning across coupons as 2026 unfolds.

In the first Convexity Pulse of 2026, Kirill Krylov kicks off the year assessing an MBS market that looks rich after a historically strong 2025. He walks through why spreads are tight across coupons and vintages, why inflows still matter more than valuations alone, and why investors will require deeper pool-level and out-of-index strategies in the year ahead. The episode also examines shifting housing policy priorities, the limits of rate relief, and why securitization rates may now pose more downside than upside risk for MBS supply.

In the final Convexity Pulse episode of 2025, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore three themes shaping the 2026 MBS outlook: the quiet return of GSE buying, the growing policy debate around whether Fannie and Freddie should support construction lending, and the steady role of money managers as the market’s center of gravity. They discuss how recent FHFA actions have reopened retained portfolio capacity, why AD&C lending remains controversial despite supply shortages, and how passive and active fund flows continue to anchor MBS demand. The episode closes with a forward-looking assessment of where spreads may settle as banks, GSEs, and money managers each play distinct roles in next year’s market.

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer break down one of the biggest structural developments in years: Freddie Mac’s new Loan Level Directed Collateral platform and how it reshapes the design of REMIC collateral from the ground up. They explain how LLDC allows dealers to deconstruct pools and rebuild pseudopools at the loan level to target specific credit, seasoning, geographic, and convexity features that had never been selectable before. The episode then turns to the outlook for bank demand in 2026, highlighting why deposit growth, a steeper curve, regulatory shifts, and relative value could draw banks back into MBS in meaningful size.

In this post-Thanksgiving special edition of the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov is serving up the 2026 Agency MBS outlook that the team has been preparing alongside our holiday roasts. He breaks down the expected rise in gross mortgage supply, the restrained path for net supply, and the broadening demand picture across GSEs, banks, REITs, ETFs, and asset managers. Taken together, these forces point to an optimistic outlook for the mortgage basis next year. The episode wraps with a look at the 2026 housing market, highlighting modest home price gains, cooling rates, and a gradually improving but still affordability-constrained environment.

This week on the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer break down the shift from equity outflows into fixed-income inflows and what that means for MBS performance heading into year-end. They explore the “silver wave” of seniors carrying mortgage debt into retirement and how this creates welcome increases to prepayment speeds in discount cohorts. The episode closes with a look at assumable and portable mortgage proposals, examining how each idea could reshape prepay behavior, credit exposure, and pricing across the MBS market.

This week's Convexity Pulse finds Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer tackling three big mortgage market shifts: the rising talk of a 50-year mortgage, potential upcoming LLPA changes, and the debut of VantageScore 4.0 in agency MBS. They explore how credit scoring reforms and aging borrower demographics could reshape cash-out refi behavior, prepayment models, and MBS convexity. The conversation also highlights why extending loan terms might mask affordability problems rather than solve them.

Kirill and Steven break down the surge in October prepayments and what it means for November’s setup. They analyze the GSEs’ meaningful portfolio expansion, with Fannie and Freddie adding more than $33 billion in the third quarter and discuss how further GSE demand could help stabilize spreads and liquidity. The episode closes with a look at early signs of renewed bank demand for MBS heading into 2026, as capital rules, rate cuts, and deposit growth start aligning for a potential re-entry.