This week on the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer break down the shift from equity outflows into fixed-income inflows and what that means for MBS performance heading into year-end. They explore the “silver wave” of seniors carrying mortgage debt into retirement and how this creates welcome increases to prepayment speeds in discount cohorts. The episode closes with a look at assumable and portable mortgage proposals, examining how each idea could reshape prepay behavior, credit exposure, and pricing across the MBS market.

This week's Convexity Pulse finds Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer tackling three big mortgage market shifts: the rising talk of a 50-year mortgage, potential upcoming LLPA changes, and the debut of VantageScore 4.0 in agency MBS. They explore how credit scoring reforms and aging borrower demographics could reshape cash-out refi behavior, prepayment models, and MBS convexity. The conversation also highlights why extending loan terms might mask affordability problems rather than solve them.

Kirill and Steven break down the surge in October prepayments and what it means for November’s setup. They analyze the GSEs’ meaningful portfolio expansion, with Fannie and Freddie adding more than $33 billion in the third quarter and discuss how further GSE demand could help stabilize spreads and liquidity. The episode closes with a look at early signs of renewed bank demand for MBS heading into 2026, as capital rules, rate cuts, and deposit growth start aligning for a potential re-entry.

This week on the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov flies solo for a recap that spans gold’s sharp reversal, shifting fund flows, and REITs’ growing influence in the mortgage market. He unpacks the divergence between active and passive inflows, and the renewed buying power of leveraged REITs. He ends with thoughts on Bloomberg’s proposal to reintroduce Ginnie Mae custom pools into the Aggregate Index and how that could reshape MBS weights and convexity risk.

This week on the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer recap a “pre-Halloween rally” in Treasuries as softer inflation and fresh Russia sanctions push yields below 4%. They discuss the approaching end of Quantitative Tightening, a growing call for GSEs to re-enter the MBS market, and how that could reshape spreads and affordability. The duo closes with a deep dive into relative-value trades across the belly and premium coupons, revealing where convexity still hides in plain sight from inefficient Loan Balance 4.5s to high-DTI Mission 5.5s. 

This week on the Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer widen the lens, tackling how the government shutdown’s data blackout is distorting market visibility and mortgage valuations. They explore the global “gold rush” as central banks swap Treasuries for bullion, the potential long-term impact of the Senate’s ROAD to Housing Act on affordability and Ginnie supply, and finish with a technical dive into the paradoxical behavior of Quicken low-loan-balance pools, the MBS trade investors love to hate but can’t ignore.

This week’s Convexity Pulse finds Kirill Krylov flying solo as he navigates a data blackout caused by the government shutdown, renewed U.S. / China trade tensions, and a market rally built more on uncertainty than conviction. He explores how missing data clouds mortgage modeling, reviews Bloomberg’s new weighted loan count feature for Supers, and connects America’s falling birth rate to the long-term housing pipeline. Kirill also dives into Florida’s cooling housing market and rising prepayment activity driven by AI-assisted loan processing.

This week’s Convexity Pulse kicks off with Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer reviewing September’s fixed-income performance and the new leading sectors at the end of Q3. They explore regional housing momentum led by the Midwest and Harvard’s long-range outlook for homeownership through 2035. They highlight the record pace of CMO issuance this year and focus on September's shifting trends as rates rallied. The episode closes with a deep dive into FICO’s new direct licensing model — a potential shake-up in the mortgage credit ecosystem.

This week’s Convexity Pulse unpacks stronger-than-expected GDP data that may slow the pace of Fed cuts, alongside shifting fund flows that left 15-year MBS rebounding while Ginnies lagged. Kirill breaks down conforming loan limit projections, the pitfalls of relying too heavily on refi indices as a direct translation to prepay speeds, and the surprising strength in new home sales. He also explores how seniors carrying mortgages into retirement create unexpected prepay risk in discount pools.

This week’s Convexity Pulse unpacks the Fed’s first rate cut and its ripple effects across MBS performance, with lower coupons and belly sectors still leading the way while production coupons lag. Kirill and Steven highlight consumer debt fragility, housing market contradictions, and builder hesitancy despite lower rates. They also dive into relative value in low coupon CMOs versus pools, and wrap with Detroit’s NBA-backed down payment assistance pilot that could reshape affordability strategies.