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“Beating China to ASI” by PeterMcCluskey
Who benefits if the US develops artificial superintelligence (ASI)
faster than China?
One possible answer is that AI kills us all regardless of which country
develops it first. People who base their policy on that concern already
agree with the conclusions of this post, so I won't focus on that
concern here.
This post aims to convince other people, especially people who focus on
democracy versus authoritarianism, to be less concerned about which
country develops ASI first. I will assume that AIs will be fully aligned
with at least one human, and that the effects of AI will be roughly as
important as the industrial revolution, or a bit more important.
Expect the Unexpected
Pre-industrial experts would have been fairly surprised if they'd lived
to see how the industrial revolution affected political systems.
Democracy was uncommon, and the franchise was mostly limited to elites.
There was little nationalism, and hardly any sign of a state-run welfare
system.
So our prior ought to be that the intelligence revolution will produce
similar surprises. We shouldn't extrapolate too much from current
policies to post-ASI conditions.
I'll examine several scenarios for how ASI influences political power.
Most [...]
---
Outline:
(00:49) Expect the Unexpected
(01:43) Leader Personality
(03:27) Benign ASI King
(04:41) Multiple Co-Equal ASIs
(05:11) Bostroms OGI Model
(06:53) Poisoned Democracy
(07:35) Democracy is Dying
(08:13) AI Enhances Government
(09:02) Governments Little Changed by ASI
(09:30) Decisive Advantage?
(11:20) Conclusion
---
First published:
December 3rd, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qo8ycERg8tE68raDM/beating-china-to-asi
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
View all episodes
By LessWrongWho benefits if the US develops artificial superintelligence (ASI)
faster than China?
One possible answer is that AI kills us all regardless of which country
develops it first. People who base their policy on that concern already
agree with the conclusions of this post, so I won't focus on that
concern here.
This post aims to convince other people, especially people who focus on
democracy versus authoritarianism, to be less concerned about which
country develops ASI first. I will assume that AIs will be fully aligned
with at least one human, and that the effects of AI will be roughly as
important as the industrial revolution, or a bit more important.
Expect the Unexpected
Pre-industrial experts would have been fairly surprised if they'd lived
to see how the industrial revolution affected political systems.
Democracy was uncommon, and the franchise was mostly limited to elites.
There was little nationalism, and hardly any sign of a state-run welfare
system.
So our prior ought to be that the intelligence revolution will produce
similar surprises. We shouldn't extrapolate too much from current
policies to post-ASI conditions.
I'll examine several scenarios for how ASI influences political power.
Most [...]
---
Outline:
(00:49) Expect the Unexpected
(01:43) Leader Personality
(03:27) Benign ASI King
(04:41) Multiple Co-Equal ASIs
(05:11) Bostroms OGI Model
(06:53) Poisoned Democracy
(07:35) Democracy is Dying
(08:13) AI Enhances Government
(09:02) Governments Little Changed by ASI
(09:30) Decisive Advantage?
(11:20) Conclusion
---
First published:
December 3rd, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qo8ycERg8tE68raDM/beating-china-to-asi
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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