(...but also gets the most important part right.)

Bentham's Bulldog (BB), a prominent EA/philosophy blogger, recently reviewed If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. In my eyes a review is good if it uses sound reasoning and encourages deep thinking on important topics, regardless of whether I agree with the bottom line. Bentham's Bulldog definitely encourages deep, thoughtful engagement on things that matter. He's smart, substantive, and clearly engaging in good faith. I laughed multiple times reading his review, and I encourage others to read his thoughts, both on IABIED and in general.

One of the most impressive aspects of the piece that I want to call out in particular is the presence of the mood that is typically missing among skeptics of AI x-risk.

Overall with my probabilities you end up with a credence in extinction from misalignment of 2.6%. Which, I want to make clear, is totally fucking insane. I am, by the standards of people who have looked into the topic, a rosy optimist. And yet even on my view, I think odds are one in fifty that AI will kill you and everyone you love, or leave the world no longer in humanity's hands. I think [...]

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Outline:

(02:38) Confidence

(05:38) The Multi-stage Fallacy

(09:43) The Three Theses of IABI

(11:57) Stages of Doom

(16:49) We Might Never Build It

(18:30) Alignment by Default

(23:31) The Evolution Analogy

(36:40) What Does Ambition Look Like?

(41:34) Solving Alignment

(46:15) Superalignment

(52:20) Warning Shots

(56:16) ASI Might Be Incapable of Winning

(59:33) Conclusion

The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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