Our local market started the week retrieving earlier losses, gaining 0.18% yesterday, as energy, materials and utilities advanced. Polynovo (ASX:PNV) rebounded, leading the market up 4.6% at the close, while Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) closely followed. On the other hand, Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG) tumbled over 12% yesterday following the announcement that JP Morgan is now a substantial holder. Overnight, the 3- week market sell off in the US equities intensified as the key benchmarks continue to close in the red. The Dow Jones down nearly 900 points, the S&P500 down 2.7%, while the Nasdaq had its worst session since 2022, closing 4% lower. Investors are cautious amid fears that that uncertainty around tariff policy may tip the economy into a recession. 

What to watch locally today:

• Following US equities, the Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a drop of 0.88%.
• In commodities,
  • Crude Oil is down 1.7% trading at US$65.90, nearing a 6- month low. 
  • Gold is down 0.78% at US$2,889 an ounce but remained near record highs as trade tensions continued to shape market sentiment, with investors closely watching U.S. inflation data due later this week for insights into the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
  • While iron ore is up slightly, trading at US$101.29.
• And the Aussie dollar is buying US$0.63, 49 British pence, 92.43 Japanese Yen and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a BUY rating on AMA Group (ASX:AMA) after the accident repair group reported a good result for the first half of FY25 last month. AMA also reiterated its FY25 guidance. There is no change to Bell Potter’s price target of $0.08 which was updated last month following the release of the company’s financial results. The price target is a more than 50% premium  to the share price.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in ClearView Wealth (ASX:CVW) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $0.47 to the range of $0.55 - $0.57 over 7 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

On Wall Street on Friday markets ended the week higher in what was the worst week the S&P 500 has had since September. The Dow Jones rose over half a percent, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.71% and the S&P500 jumped 0.56%.

A US jobs data report was released on Friday, falling below expectations to 151,000 jobs in February, well below the consensus of 170,000 jobs predicted by economists.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower on Friday following investor reactions to tariff implementation over in the US. The STOXX600 fell 0.46%, it’s first losing session of the year. Germany’s DAX dropped 1.75%, the French CAC lost 0.94% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed 0.03% lower.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 closed 1.81% lower with all but one major sector closing in the red. Losses were led by the information technology and real estate sectors which fell by 3.04% and 3% respectively. This was offset by the consumer staples sector which gained 0.35% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures predicting a rise of 0.87% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading over 1% higher at 67 US dollars and 4 cents a barrel as Donald Trump threatened Russia with sanctions if they fail to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.
  • Gold is trading slightly higher by 0.04% at 2911 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.05% higher at 101 US dollars and 29 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Ltd (ASX:SX2) with a current share price of $3.60. Bell Potter has set a 12-month price target of $4.80, indicating a share price growth of 33.3%, hence the speculative buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Westpac Banking (ASX:WBC), indicating that the stock price may fall from a close of $30.57 to the range of $26-$26.90 on a pattern formed over 109 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Market movements this week were characterised by turbulence in US equities. The ASX200 declined 0.95% Monday to Thursday, with the energy sector weighing down on the market the most, followed by consumer staples and utilities. 

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:45): why defensive stocks have outperformed 
• (2:11): shifts in global currency markets
• (2:29): the surge in optimism surrounding the Euro
• (3:16): how the ASX200 performed this week so far 
• (3:44): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (4:08): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall St closed higher overnight following back-to-back losses after an exemption was given to automakers from Donald Trump’s tariffs, giving investors hope that more concessions will be made. The Dow Jones rose 1,14%, the S&P500 jumped 1.12% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed Wednesday’s trading session 1.46% higher.

A one-month delay on tariffs were given to automakers whose cars comply with the Unites States-Mexico-Canada agreement. Stellantis rose by 10%, whilst Ford and General Motors both gained 5% and 8% respectively.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher as investors have increased optimism that Donald Trump’s tariffs could be relaxed. The STOXX600 rose by 0.91% with autos rising by 2.4%. This was offset by the utilities and food and beverage stocks which ended the day in negative territory. Germany’s DAX soared 3.38%, the French CAC rallied 1.56% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 fell slightly by 0.04%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell by 0.69% with the vast majority of major sectors closing in the red. Losses were led by the consumer staples and energy sectors which fell 3.56% and 1.68% respectively. This was offset by the utilities sector which rose by 0.11% by market close.

GDP growth rate data quarter on quarter was released yesterday coming in at a rise of 0.6%, higher than the consensus of 0.5% and the previous result of 0.3%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.21% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 2.72% lower at 66 US dollars 40 cents a barrel as OPEC+ supply increases and continued geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment.
  • Gold is trading 0.17% higher at 2919 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.79% higher at 101 US dollars and 61 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Alpha HPA Ltd (ASX:A4N) and has a 12-month share price of $2. With a current share price of $0.87, this indicates a share price growth of 129% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX:AIA), indicating that the share price may fall from the close of $7.30 to the range of $6.60-$6.70, on a pattern formed over 7 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US overnight, Wall Street extended its losing run as fresh tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, US time. The Dow Jones fell by 1.55%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.35% and the S&P500 ended the day 1.22% lower. Investors fear the global trade will impact the health of the US economy with retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico in motion already.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as global investors brace for impact on the ongoing tariff war. The STOXX600 closed over 2.14% in the red, it’s biggest daily drop since August last year. Germany’s DAX fell 3.54%, the French CAC lost 1.85% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed Tuesday’s trading session down 3.54%.

The local market was sold off broadly yesterday as investor fears of Trump tariff implications spread through the ASX. The key index fell 0.58% as every sector aside from healthcare stocks ended the day in the red, with energy stocks taking the biggest hit with a more than 3% loss.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.97% at market open this morning.
• In terms of economic news, GDP growth rate data will be released for Quarter 4 with a consensus and forecast of a 0.5% increase, 0.2% more than its previous result.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.85% lower at 67 US dollars and 75 cents a barrel, gold is trading up 0.82% at 2914 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 5.7% lower at 100 US dollars and 81 cents a tonne following the announcement of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China now taking effect.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Develop Global (ASX:DVP) and has a 12-month price target of $4. With a current share price of $2.93, this indicates a share price growth of 36.5% over the next 12 months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on NAB (ASX:NAB), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $35.05 to the range of $28.50-$29.75 on a pattern formed over 8 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St started the new trading week sharply lower as investors brace for the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada, of which come into effect on Tuesday US time. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P500 lost 2.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down a sharp 3.2%. Investor hopes of a last-minute deal to prevent the tariffs from going ahead were dashed in afternoon trade after President Trump reiterated the 25% levies on imports from Mexico and Canada will go ahead from Tuesday. Companies that face a direct hit from the tariffs tumbled yesterday including Ford and General Motors.

Over in Europe on Monday, markets closed higher as defence stocks continue to surge amid renewed spend in the sector. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany’s DAX rose 2.6%, the French CAC added 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets mostly rose as investors awaited clarity on Trump’s tariff plans. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.44%, Taiwan’s Taiex index fell 1.3% and China’s CSI index closed down just 0.04%.

Locally on Monday the ASX started the new trading month in the green with the key index posting a 0.9% rise at the closing bell and all sectors ended the day higher led by Energy stocks rising 2.02%. The positive market sentiment comes ahead of a wave of tariff implications out of the US commencing this week which is set to shake up market returns and outlook, while we are also bracing locally for the latest slew of economic data with the GDP reading out later in the week. The energy rally on Monday was amid investor outlook for the price of oil to rise when tariffs on Mexico and Canada come into effect as they are two major exporters of crude.

Embattled casino operator Star Entertainment Group shares were suspended on Monday following a trading halt after the company failed to lodge accounts to the ASX for reporting season.

Medical imaging giant Pro Medicus jumped 3.2% on Monday after the company signed yet another deal to roll out its core imaging tools. The deal worth $40m is with US radiology provider LucidHealth and will see Pro Medicus devices and systems rolled out throughout the LucidHealth network.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 1.35% following Wall Street’s tumble overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.3% lower at US$68.16/barrel, gold is up 1.11% at US$2888.53/ounce and iron ore is down 0.21% at US$106.90/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.62, 92.84 Japanese Yen, 49.13 British Pence and NZ$1.11.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and have raised the 12-month price target on the home goods giant to $6.00/share following the release of 1H25 results including some key beats in the Australian franchising division and also in the NZ operations. Single digit earnings growth across most metrics was reported and the analyst increased the 12-month price target due to multiple catalysts near-mid-term such as improving sales trends and the growing AI movement.
• And Bell Potter has slightly increased the 12-month price target on Bub’s Australia (ASX:BUB) to 15.5cps and maintain a hold rating on the infant formula producer following the release of the company’s 1H25 results including net revenue growth of 24% to $48.5m, EBITDA of $0.5m compared to a loss of $6.8m in the PCP, and outlook for net revenue target for FY25 of $102m. The analyst sees Bub’s continues to make inroads into the US however remains cognisant of the potential impact of tariffs (if any).

Over in Wall St on Friday markets closed higher to end the week following a losing month for the major averages. The Dow Jones gained 1.39%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.59% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 1.63%.

Over in Europe, the STOXX600 and Germany’s DAX closed flat on Friday, with the French CAC rising 0.1% and over in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended 0.61% higher by market close on Friday.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 fell 1.16% with all but one major sector closing in the red. Losses were led by the information technology and materials sectors which fell 2.86% and 2.47% respectively. This was offset by the communication services sector which rose by 0.24% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.59% at market open.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.84% lower at 69 US dollars and 76 cents a barrel, marking the first monthly decline since November over geopolitical tensions. 
  • Gold is trading 0.65% lower at 2856 US dollars an ounce, and iron ore is trading 0.16% lower at 106 US dollars and 90 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) and has a 12-month price target of $0.30. The speculative buy rating is maintained as AIS is a copper dominant producer with all its assets in Australia. It’s near-term outlook is highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing grades and production at the Tritton copper mine. Successful delivery offers significant upside and a strategically attractive asset in Tritton, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG), indicating that the share price may fall from the close of $31.31 to the range of $23.25-$24.75, on a pattern formed over 212 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the final week of reporting season, the ASX200 declined 0.34%, as technology stocks tumbled, while utilities and financial stocks offset some of the local market gains. This reporting season, 24 companies released their financial results, with 86 beatings expectations, 83 meeting expectations and 75 missing expectations. 37 companies have been upgraded by brokers, while 42 have been downgraded. 

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:42): why Qantas continues to soar as turbulence rocks other airlines
• (1:13): Light & Wonder’s share price reaching records
• (1:55): differing investor reactions to the results of Woolworths & Coles 
• (2:56): the best & worst performing stocks & ETFs this week 
• (3:58): the most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients 
• (4:22): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall St overturned its recent red run to close higher on Wednesday as investors overlooked concerns around Trump’s tariffs and into areas of opportunity in the market. The S&P500 rose 0.01%, only just snapping a 4-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq gained 0.26% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.43%.
 Nvidia’s results out overnight boosted the AI-market darling up 3% ahead of the results release after the closing bell. Nvidia’s results once again beat expectations with sales growing 78%, revenue coming in at US$39.33bn and EPS rose to US$0.89/share. The outlook is also very strong for revenue of US$43bn in Q1 as global demand for AI drives tailwinds for the company.

European markets ended the midweek session higher amid strong corporate earnings beats across the region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.99%, Germany’s DAX rose 1.73%, the French CAC added 1.15%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.72%. Earnings from Budweiser maker AB Inbev, Adecco, and Munich Re each rallied yesterday after reporting earnings beats.

Across the APAC region on Wednesday, markets closed mixed taking lead from Wall St on Tuesday and amid key pledges out of governments in the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 3.63% led by tech stocks after the city pledged in its budget to develop itself into an AI hub. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.25%, and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.41%.

Locally on Wednesday the ASX200 fell 0.14%, weighed down by the materials sector falling 1.61%, while Real Estate stocks fell 1.3%. Energy and Financials stocks offset some of the market losses with gains of 1.3% and 0.71% respectively.

Bapcor rallied over 13% yesterday after the leading provider of aftermarket parts, accessories and services released strong first half results including strong cost reduction plans to increase cash conversion which has enabled the company to bay down debt and reinvest in growth plans this financial year to date.
 Light & Wonder also rose over 7% after the gaming company reported FY24 results including a 10% rise in revenue to a record $3.2bn, a 110% jump in net income to $336m and guided to low double-digit income growth for Q1FY25.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.12%. 
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.16% lower at US$68.82/barrel, gold is down 0.07% at US$2916/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$107.17/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.03 US cents, 93.98 Japanese Yen, 49.89 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has slightly decreased the 12-month price target on Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) from $5.10 to $5.00 and maintain a hold rating on the online retailer following a 1H result that came in line with expectations. The slight decrease in 12-month price target is due to earnings downgrades by the analyst as Kogan’s Mighty Ape business had some transition issues post a website upgrade last year.
• Bell Potter has downgraded the price target on Woolworths (ASX:WOW) from $31.75 to $30.75 and maintain a hold rating on the leading supermarket giant after the company reported first half results below BPe on an NPAT front and provided softer near-term guidance.

As we enter into the 4th week of Reporting Season, we have seen 174 companies release results with 61 beating expectations, 62 meeting expectations and 51 missing expectations. 

In this weeks video, Grady covers:

• Domino’s (ASX:DMP): Dropped 9% after a $20m loss, impacted by cost pressures and store closures
• Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG): Plunged 28% as project delays and weak insurance claims hit earnings
• Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): Jumped 15% on record first-half results, with cash earnings up 120% and US growth surging
• Woodside (ASX:WDS): NPAT doubled to $3.6bn, but underlying profit slipped 14% on weaker oil and gas prices.