Wall St saw a mixed session overnight as the US – Iran war and oil price volatility continued to weigh on investors. The Dow Jones closed down 0.6%, the S&P500 inched down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to the today’s trade, the SPI futures indicate that our local market is poised for a drop at the open, suggesting a 0.5% pull back. Investors are largely reacting to the lack of a clear path to a resolution of the Iran conflict, as President Trump said yesterday that the US and Israel were not yet finished hitting Iran, while Iran itself listed 3 terms it would require for the war to end, including the payment of reparations. 
• Moving over to commodities, 
  • Crude Oil rebounded 6% to US$88 per barrel, despite the IEA confirming that they would release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, its largest ever release. Even with the additional supply, the price will continue to stay high as long as the long term uncertainty remains. 
  • Precious metals remain relatively stable, continuing the trend we have seen developing over the last few days.  Gold is trading just 0.2% down at US$5,180 per ounce, while silver is down 2.9% at a little under US$86 per ounce. 

Trading ideas:

• Finally, we’ll end on some trading ideas for your consideration today. Bell Potter have upgraded their recommendation on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from a Sell to a Hold, with an upgrade on the 12 month price target from $11.60 per share to $19 per share. This comes after the company announced it had extended the Japan Australia Rare Earths offtake agreement to 2038, effectively guaranteeing revenue of around $775 million at the current exchange rate. 
• And Bell Potter maintain their Buy rating on Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) with a 12 month target price also of $19 per share, off the back of yesterday’s announcement of successful phase 1 trials for its prostate cancer therapy. 

Wall St overnight saw a very slight pullback after a choppy trading session, as trader remained wary of developments in the ongoing Iran war. The S&P500 dropped 0.2% by close of trade, the Dow Jones dropped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq ended the trading day flat. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today’s trade locally, the ASX is expected to build on yesterday’s momentum and rise, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.3% increase at the open. 
• Moving straight to commodities news, 
  • Crude Oil has retreated further from its historic surge on Monday, currently trading down around 8.8% to US$86 per barrel. The drop comes after the International Energy Agency or IEA announced they would convene an extraordinary meeting of member countries to discuss the possible release of oil stockpiles to the market to relieve supply constraints. IEA members collectively hold around 1.2 billion barrels of oil in reserve. 
  • Meanwhile, precious metals continue to steadily advance off the back of safe haven demand while uncertainty lingers. Gold is trading around 1% up at just under US$5200 per ounce, while silver is trading 1.5% up at US$88 per ounce. 

Trading ideas:

• Finally ending on some trading ideas for your consideration today. Bell Potter has upgraded its recommendation on Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) from a Hold to a Buy, with a 12 month price target of $28.50, which at the current share price of $21.11 implies 335% capital growth over the period. 
• And Bell Potter have maintained their Buy rating on Orica (ASX:ORI), with a 12 month price target of $28.50, after the company provided its first half FY26 update, outlining positive group momentum continuing into the second half of the year. 

US equities rallied late in the trading session following President Donald Trump’s comments to CBS News that he thinks the war against Iran could soon end. The headlines steadied global markets and all three major benchmarks closed in the green.

The Dow Jones gained 0.5%, the S&P500 up 0.8% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.4%, all marking impressive turnarounds from the losses seen earlier in the trading session.

What to watch today:

Following global markets, the Australian market is set to rebound, with the SPI futures suggesting a 2.15% rise at the open this morning, after a $90 billion sell-off yesterday.

In commodities,

• Crude oil is in the red, however back up to US$85.08 per barrel, after G7 finance ministers said the group is ready to release oil from strategic reserves if needed.
• The price of gold has fallen to $5,133 per ounce as a firmer US dollar and diminishing expectations of the Fed’s rate cuts offset safe-haven demand from the escalating Middle East conflict.
• And iron ore is in the green at US$102.90 per tonne.

In economic news,

• Westpac is set to release its March consumer confidence report at 10:30am AEDT
• And NAB will release the February business confidence and conditions reports at 11:30am AEDT.
• Overseas, investors are waiting on China’s latest trade data.
• And AU$1.00 is buying US$0.71.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Buy rating on Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC). While the conflict in the Middle East is resulting in an immediate market impact to key input costs and the duration is uncertain, Bell Potter’s view is that while margins may be impacted, NIC is insulated due to its diversified nickel product suite. Their 12-month price target is $1.45 and at the current share price of $0.88, this implies 64.8% share price growth in a year.

We’re poised for a rough start to the week, after Wall St saw a sizeable drop last Friday to cap off a highly volatile week. The Dow Jones lost 1%, the S&P500 fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.6%. On top of the ramifications of the ongoing Middle East conflict, investors also reacted to softer than expected US Jobs data which was released on Friday, adding to the sell-off.

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the ASX is set to nosedive this morning, with the SPI futures pointing to a 1.8% drop at the open of trade today. 
• The biggest story remains commodities, particularly Crude Oil. The supply fears remain around the Strait of Hormuz, which showed no signs of subsiding after President Trump’s latest rhetoric on Truth Social, in which he claimed there would not be an end to the war without “unconditional surrender” from Iran. 
  • Crude Oil is currently trading at US$92 per barrel, the first time it has crossed the US$90 benchmark in nearly 2 years. This brings the total price gain for the week to 35% - the highest week price gain since oil futures began trading in 1983. 
  • Despite the volatility across the rest of the market precious metals remain trading relatively stably – Gold is currently trading at US$5158 per ounce, continuing to rest around the $5100 mark it has sat at for the last few days. 
  • Silver similarly is currently trading at US$84.40 per ounce, representing a gain of 2.5%.
• Finally, looking at some trading ideas for today: Bell Potter maintain their Buy rating on athlete tracking solutions provider Catapult Sports (ASX:CAT), with a 12 month price target of $4.85, reinforcing it as one of their preferred tech stocks in the mid cap range. 
• They also maintain their buy rating on agricultural chemicals supplier Nufarm (ASX:NUF) with a 12 month price target of $3.60, which at the current price of $2.12 per share implies a 70% capital growth over the period. 

The conflict in the Middle East intensified this week, resulting in broad-based market instability and a drop in global equities. This week, Sophia Mavridis sits down with Bell Financial Group’s CIO Will Riggall, to unpack how markets historically respond to geopolitical shocks, and how investors can position themselves to navigate this challenging period. 

In this week’s video, Will and Sophia cover:

• a final look back on reporting season – the key takeaways
• the surge in oil and gas prices and its broader economic impact
• which sectors provide opportunities for investors
• Bell Potter’s strategy for managing volatility and minimising risk.

Overnight, Wall St saw a rebound from yesterday’s sell off, as investors fears about surging oil prices and an extended conflict in the Middle East were allayed somewhat. The Dow Jones added 0.5%, the S&P500 gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq was the biggest winner adding 1.3%, spurred by chip stocks such as Micron and AMD gaining 6%.

What to watch today:

• Back home, the ASX is set for a similar rebound, after yesterday’s session saw $60 billion erased from its market cap in a 1.9% drop the second worst day since last April’s Liberation Day. The SPI futures indicate the ASX will open 1.1% higher. 
• Moving to some trading ideas for today, Bell Potter have maintained their buy rating on Endeavor Group (ASX:EDV), with a 12 month price target of $4.15, as they believe that market expectations are low for the company’s strategic refresh, leaving room for greater upside potential.
• They also maintain their buy rating on Genusplus Group (ASX:GNP) with a 12 month price target of $9.50, after the company announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of Railtrain Holdings Pty Ltd for a total consideration of $55 million, solidifying its track record of strong M&A strategy. 
• Finally ending on some commodities news, which have somewhat stabilised after a few days of heightened volatility. 
  • The surging Crude Oil has flattened, trading just 1.8% up at around $75 per barrel, largely due to President Trump’s pledge to deploy the US navy to provide risk insurance for all tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 
  • Precious metals have seen similar trends, with Gold up 0.9% to US$5133 per ounce, and silver up 1.5% to US$82 per ounce. Gold especially has seen a conflict of both headwinds and tailwinds of late, as geopolitical uncertainty creates safe haven demand, however a strong US dollar and inflation fears from higher energy costs put downward pressure on the price. 

Wall St plunged overnight as the US-Iran conflict showed no signs of slowing down, with all 3 indexes down more than 2 and half percent at their lowest points of the day. However, shares did somewhat recover in the afternoon, with the major indexes ending up closing around 1% down – the Dow Jones lost 0.8%, the S&P500 0.9% and the Nasdaq shed 1%. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the ASX is poised to see a similar result, with the SPI futures pointing to a 1.4% drop at the open of trade today. Global markets are reacting to growing threat that this conflict will last longer than initially expected, passing beyond a brief exchange of missiles. 
• The RBA is also due to release Australia’s 4th quarter GDP data at 11:30am, with economists forecasting a 0.6% lift quarter to quarter, which will take annual growth to 2.2%. Results that fall significantly short of this could cause the markets to react accordingly. 
• Following their record results yesterday, Bell Potter have maintained their Buy rating on Life360 (ASX:360), with a 12-month price target of $40 per share, based on their updated revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027. 
• Bell Potter have also maintained their Buy recommendation on ALS (ASX:ALQ), with a target price of 12 month price target of $28 per share, based on strengthening industry tailwinds and higher exploration spend. 
• Finally, ending on commodities news, which have remained volatile overnight. 
  • Crude Oil peaked at over US$80 yesterday, but has since come down to US$75 per barrel as supply chain fears around the Strait of Hormuz persist. President Trump has suggested that the US navy could be deployed to escort ships through the Strait if necessary, providing the market some relief. 
  • Precious metals also saw significant pullbacks – Gold is down 4.3% to just under US$5100 per ounce, while silver is down 8% to US$82 per ounce. 

It was a volatile trading day on Wall St yesterday as the US market reacted to the weekend’s geopolitical developments in the Middle East. All 3 major indexes saw a major sell off in the morning, dropping over 1.5% at intraday lows. However, the afternoon saw a recovery as investors jumped on the buy opportunities. At the end, the S&P500 closed up 0.04%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.4% and the Dow Jones edged down slightly 0.2%. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures are indicating that the ASX will waver, with a 0.2% drop at the open of trade. 
• Although the bulk of reporting season is behind us, keep an eye on popular tech name Life360 (ASX:360), which is due to release its quarterly results this morning. 
• The biggest story of the day remains in commodities, which are still volatile following the weekend’s news. 
  • Crude Oil prices remain heavily inflated due to fears of supply chain disruption. As of this morning, it is trading up 6.4% at just over US$71 per barrel. The major risk factor sending the price higher is threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway bordered by Iran to the north through which about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade flows.  If this is blockaded further, it would cause a significant undersupply, causing crude oil prices to skyrocket. 
  • Gold is also trading higher, trading up another 1% to US$5330 per ounce. This spike comes as gold remains a traditional safe haven for investors during periods of volatility. In contrast, silver, which usually follows a similar trend to gold, is trading down 4.7% at US$89 per ounce. The reason for the disparity is that unlike Gold, around 50% of silver’s value remains tethered to industrial usage and demand, which has wavered in the face of possible supply chain risks. This industrial demand is what pushed silver so high so quickly in comparison to gold over the last few months, but it is also the reason why it sees more volatility than gold. 
• During this period of geopolitical uncertainty, the Gold price will continue to have significant tailwinds behind it, which creates a buying opportunity in the gold industry. One such stock that Bell Potter recommends with a speculative Buy rating is Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI), which they give a target price of $1.70 per share. The company completed the first tranche of a $130m institutional share placement, providing it with the funds raised to develop its flagship gold project in New Zealand. 

We’re set for a rocky start to the week following the extreme developments out of the Middle East we saw over the weekend, with US airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s responsive strikes on Israel and the US Middle East bases. 

We’re expected to see a lot of market movement and activity when markets open today. Looking at Friday’s close in the US, the Dow Jones closed 1.1%, the S&P500 down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower. 

The 10-year yield fell below 4% for the first time since November and the US 10- year and 2-year Treasury yields each dropped 6 points to 3.95% and 3.38% respectively.

What to watch today:

Looking at the day ahead, the SPI futures are suggesting that the Australian market will drop 0.2% at the open this morning. 

• We’ll be closely watching the market’s reactions to the US-Iran conflict, however there may be some commodities and sectors that could benefit, including gold, oil and defense stocks. 
• Looking at commodities, 
  • Crude oil has jumped 2.8% to US$67.00 per barrel. 
  • Gold is up 1.8% to US$5,278.00. Gold has been rallying in the last few weeks and is expected to advance when trading resumes. Before the weekend, Gold prices rose to a one-month high and a seventh straight month of gains, due to geopolitical tensions ahead of the weekend strikes 
  • While iron ore is trading flat. 
  • Copper futures reached a four-week high on Friday which was also the seventh consecutive month of gains. The price is up 0.97% to US$6.00 per pound. 
• As for foreign exchange, the Australian dollar is down 12c to US$71.13 and we may see some pressure on currencies today. 

And as our local reporting season draws to a close, February marked a third straight monthly gain and finished 3.7% higher. We saw 335 companies release their financial results, with 119 beating expectations, 109 in line with expectations and 107 missing market expectations. With much stock specific news driving market movements, two of Bell Potter’s most relent recommendations include gold producer Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) and developer Summerset Group (ASX:SUM). 

• Bell Potter have maintained their Buy rating on Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) and their 12-month price target at $14.60. At the current price of $8.51, implying 72% share price growth in a year. 
• And they have lowered their 12-month target on Summerset Group (ASX:SNZ) to  NZ$14.40, while their Buy rating remains unchanged. The current share price if NZ$10.66, implying 35% share price growth in a year. 

This week, Sophia Mavridis chats with Bell Financial Group’s Chief Investment Officer Will Riggall on a strong month of earnings results and how the ASX is performing in comparison to offshore markets. 

In this week’s video, Will and Sophia cover:

• the best and worst performing sectors moving the market
• Bell Potter’s choice between Coles (ASX:COL) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW) 
• a dive into WiseTech (ASX:WTC) and the tech sector as AI reshapes the workforce
• Fortescue’s (ASX:FMG) results and how the company compares to BHP Group (ASX:BHP)
• what’s next for the market as reporting season draws to a close.