August reporting season closed with just 20–30% of companies beating expectations, as investors rewarded certainty in dividends, guidance, and cost control while punishing cautious outlooks. Standouts included Northern Star, Goodman Group, and JB Hi-Fi, while Woolworths, CSL, and James Hardie lagged on guidance misses. Looking to FY26, rate cuts, AI, gold, and resilient retailers are set to drive opportunity, but disciplined execution will be key.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:16): a look back at reporting season as a whole
• (1:03): why investors are valuing clarity and strong guidance
• (2:03): a dive into some key sectors, including retail, gold and real estate
• (5:22): the themes shaping FY26’s outlook
• (7:05): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:32): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (8:00): economic news items to look out for next week.

In the US, Wall Street closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones ended the day marginally down with a 0.05% decline, while the S&P500 gained 0.51% and the tech heavy NASDAQ advanced 1.02%, driven by strong gains from Alphabet and Apple.

Europe also saw a rebound overnight: the Stoxx600 closed up 0.66%, the FTSE gained 0.67%, the German DAX advanced 0.46% and the French CAC was the biggest winner, ending the day up 0.86%

Locally yesterday the ASX200 saw its worst day since April’s Liberation day, closing down a sharp 1.82%, with all 11 key sectors in the red. The sell off was primarily driven by rising bond yields in the global bond market – as investors are less willing to pay high prices for stocks with higher risk potential when bonds are paying higher interest rates.

What to watch today: 

• The SPI futures suggest the ASX200 will rally after a few consecutive days of losses and open up 0.41% - tracking overseas gains overnight
• In commodities:
  • Crude oil has dropped 2.77% to 63.77 US dollars per barrel, ahead of weekend meeting of OPEC producers that is expected to increase production targets in October
  • Gold has continued its record run, rising another 0.7% to a fresh high of 3559.47 US dollars per ounce. This renewed gold rally comes as investors seek a safe haven amid continuing expectations of a fed rate cut this month, further concerns over US debt levels, and renewed uncertainty around the US tariff implications and outlook.
  • Meanwhile, iron ore has risen 0.69% to 103.24 US dollars per tonne.
• Also today BHP (ASX:BHP) will go ex-dividend, so investors may notice a drop in the share price of around the dividend value for this reason.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on COG Ltd (ASX:COG) and raised the target price to $2.25 per share off the back of the company’s announcement of the 100% acquisition of EasiFleet Pty Ltd, effective September 1.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal on Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $290.81 to the range of $235-$245 per share over a period of 52 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower on Tuesday to kick off the September trading month in the red as investors took profits from the summer bull rally and hold concerns over tariff uncertainty after a federal appeals court on Friday ruled that most of Trump’s global tariffs are illegal. The Nasdaq lost 0.82%, the S&P500 dropped 0.7% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.55%.

In Europe overnight, markets tumbled amid a rise in bond yields and the prospect of further tariff uncertainty out of the US. The STOXX 600 fell 1.5%, Germany’s DAX fell 2.2%, the French CAC lost 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.9%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, market sentiment was hit by tariff uncertainty leading to a mixed session in the region. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.3%, India’s Nifty 50 gained 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.94%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day down 0.5%.

The local market started the new trading month lower with a 0.3% decline on Tuesday as investors digested the August reporting season showing a weaker outcome than expected for FY25 and repositioned portfolios for the tailwinds expected in FY26. Australia’s August reporting season delivered weaker-than-expected results, with only 20-30 % of companies beating earnings expectations compared with more than 80% in the US. Median earnings downgrades of 3.6% outpaced upgrades of 2% locally.

With some heavyweight market stocks trading ex-dividend yesterday and Wall St closed on Monday, investor moves were buoyed yesterday by strength among the banks and a rally among key commodity prices yesterday however this wasn’t enough to boost the ASX to a green finish.

Gold rose 1.4% to $3,496.24 per ounce, and silver surpassed $40 for the first time since 2011, driven by expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to ANZ.

Collin’s Food (ASX:CKF) soared over 7% yesterday after posting a 6.7% rise in total sales for the first 18-weeks of FY26 and the KFC Australia operator also reaffirmed guidance for FY26 targeting underlying NPAT of low-mid teens.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.33% higher at US$65.49/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3528/ounce and iron ore is up 0.71% at US$102.53/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.13 US cents, 96.70 Japanese Yen, 46.82 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down a sharp 0.42% tracking global market uncertainty overnight.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and have increased the 12-month price target on the homewares retailer from $6.00 to $8.30 following the release of FY25 results beating expectations and a strong start to FY26 especially from within the Australian business.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Supply Network (ASX:SNL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 268-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $36.02 to the range of $27.50 to $29.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US, Wall Street was closed on Monday due to the Labour Day public holiday.

In Europe, markets closed generally higher, spurred by a boost in the defence sector. The Stoxx 600 closed up 0.17%, the FTSE gained 0.1%, the French CAC advanced 0.05% and the German DAX was the biggest gainer at 0.57%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 0.51% lower with the majority of the key sectors in the red. Information Technology saw the biggest drop, closing down 2.65%, while on the other end consumer staples saw the biggest gain, closing up 0.35%. 

What to watch today:

• Ahead of today’s trading session, the SPI futures are suggesting the ASX will open the day down 0.09%.
• In commodities, 
  • Crude oil is up 0.97% to 64.63 US dollars per barrel. 
  • Gold is up 0.78% to 3476.08 US dollars per ounce, around $23 shy of its all time high.
  • While iron ore is trading lower, down 1.8% to 101.65 US dollars per tonne.
• Australia’s current account and export figures for Q2 are out at 11:30am AEST
• We’ll see earnings reporting from Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL), while Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) and Santos (ASX:STO) are set to go ex-dividend, which can often cause a drop in the share price of the dividend amount. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on Iron Ore miner Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) and increased the 12 month target price to $0.65, off the back of its new binding agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation granting it the exclusive right to mine and export 290 megatonnes of iron ore over 30 years at SMC’s Weld Range Iron Ore project.
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Breville Group (ASX:BRG), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $32.88 to the range of $28.10 - 29.00 over a period of 28 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street closed lower on Friday but higher for August marking the 4th month of gains for the NYSE. On Friday, the S&P500 fell 0.64%, the Nasdaq lost 1.15%, and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.2% as investors took money out of the market amid risks of inflationary pressures remaining persistent into the new month following the U.S. core PCE increasing 2.9% for July which was in-line with expectations but still showed acceleration of an inflation driver.

In Europe on Friday stocks moved lower as investors await key inflation data out in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.6%, Germany’s DAX also dropped 0.6%, the French CAC declined 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.3%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed key economic data out of Japan including Japan’s CPI rising at a slower pace in August. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.26% on Friday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.45%, China’s CSI index added 0.74%, and South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.32%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 closed 0.08% lower as a sell-off in REIT and financial stocks offset a more than 3% rise in tech stocks. For the month of August though, the local market posted a 2.6% rise as investors responded to strong outlook for FY26.

Homewares retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) jumped over 10% on Friday after reporting profits rose 39% in FY25 which well exceeded market expectations while Austal (ASX:ASB) also soared over 14% amid a record order pipeline and shipbuilding agreement with the federal government.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.91% lower at US$64.01/barrel, gold is up 0.91% at US$3448.50/ounce and iron ore is up 0.1% at US$101.81/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.48 US cents, 96.30 Japanese yen, 48.46 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the first trading session of the new month the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.3%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Lovisa from $31 to $42 (ASX:LOV) and maintain a hold rating on the fashion jewellery retailer following the release of the company’s FY25 results. Despite missing on NPAT, the new financial year has started very strong for Lovisa with global comparable sales up 5.6%.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Ooh Media (ASX:OML) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.68 to the range of $1.84 to $1.88 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

As August reporting season draws to a close, we saw plenty of big results move the markets this week. Supermarket giant Woolworths (ASX:WOW) tumbled over 10% on weak profit and margin pressure, facing pressure from its major competitor Coles. In contrast, Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) impressed with its first post-merger results, Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) delivered record revenue, and Qantas (ASX:QAN) soared on robust travel demand. Looking ahead to FY26, cost control, consumer shifts, and sector tailwinds are expected to drive momentum, with opportunities emerging across growth-focused mid-caps.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:15): an overview of the results over this reporting season
• (0:40): why Woolworth’s shares are tumbling  
• (1:40): a dive into Sigma Healthcare, Eagers Automative and Qantas’ results
• (4:50): key themes heading into FY26
• (5:34): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:00): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (7:29): economic news items to look out for next week.

Overnight, the S&P500 advanced at the same magnitude as it slipped the day before. Industrials led among large cap segments, gaining momentum while at the other end of the leaderboard, staples declined the most. All US equity benchmarks closed in the green, with the Dow Jones also gaining more than 140 points or 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.2%. US investors weighed the latest quarterly earnings results from Nvidia. In extended trading, Nvidia’s share price fell almost 3%, despite its results beating expectations, which has seen the S&P futures move lower as the company makes up approximately 8% of the S&P500. And as we near the end of the month, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are each up more than 2%, while Dow is up more than 3% this month. 

European markets closed mixed overnight. The German DAX down 0.44% and the FTSE100 down 0.11%. While France’s CAC was up 0.44% and the STOXX600 closed just 0.1% higher. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 advanced 0.28% with materials and healthcare stocks in the lead, while consumer staples and technology declined the most. 

 What to watch today: 

• Following the rally on Wall Street overnight, the SPI futures are suggesting that our local market will open only slightly higher this morning, with a 0.03% gain. 
• And while we’re nearing the end of reporting season, a long list of companies are due to release their earnings results today. The most watched will likely be Qantas today (ASX:QAN) with the major airline set the release its results this morning and gold a press conference at 9am. Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) will also be reporting today, the conglomerate that owns Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart and others. And other share prices to watch will be Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC), and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) just to name a few. 
• And companies going ex-dividend today include Beach Energy (ASX:BPT), Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR), REA Group (ASX:REA) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS). Remember this often sees share prices fall as investors take their profits. 
• In commodities,
   
  • Crude oil has gained 0.78% to US$63.74 per barrel recovering from a more than 2% drop, after US government data pointed to stronger-than-expected inventory declines. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, more than markets had anticipated. So watch energy producers today. 
  • The price of gold is higher just 0.08% to US$3,396.35 an ounce, hovering at a two-week high amid concerns over the Fed’s independence as President Trump signalled a legal fight after seeking to remove Governor Lisa Cook over alleged misconduct.
  • And iron ore is in the green higher at US$101.59, so watch iron ore miners today.

 Trading ideas:

• Following the release of Woolworth’s (ASX:WOW) results yesterday, Bell Potter maintain their Hold rating on the supermarket giant but have lowered their price target to $29.80, as the company reported NPAT outlook changes, down 2% in FY26 and down 8% in FY27. At the current share price of $28.51, this implies 4.5% share price growth in a year. 
• And Bell Potter maintains their buy rating on WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC), although FY25 revenue came in below Bell Potter’s expectations and missed their guidance range. They have lowered their price target by 6% to $127.50. At WTC’s current share price of $102.02, this implies 25% share price growth in a year. 

As reporting season enters its final week, we’ve seen 174 companies release their results, with 19% beating expectations. With more companies downgraded than upgraded by brokers, the importance of meeting valuations and maintaining solid outlook remains clear for investors. Some of the key themes looking ahead towards FY26 include the housing crisis driving tailwinds in for property developers, strengthening balance sheets from asset sales, and the challenges for expansion strategies into the US. 

In this week’s video, Grady covers:

• (0:53) Cedar Woods Properties (ASX:CWP): property market tailwinds and strong pipeline drove solid results
• (2:51) Coles Group (ASX:COL): reported slightly ahead of expectations in their supermarket division
• (4:15) Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV): fell over 1% on weakness in its retail segment and modest forecasts
• (5:27) Aussie Broadband (ASX:ABB): surged 20% on strong FY25 results and positive forecast
• (6:27) Reece Plumbing (ASX:RCE): fell 16% after reporting decline in sales and EBIT.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors assessed Trump’s latest moves and await key earnings results out of Nvidia. The S&P500 rose 0.41%, the Dow Jones gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.44%.

In Europe overnight, markets closed lower as global investors assessed Trump’s latest moves in attempt to intervene with the running of the US Federal Reserve. The STOXX 600 lost 0.83%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.4%, the French CAC declined over 2% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly fell as investors in the region also weighed Trump’s latest moves both on the Fed and tariff fronts. Trump reportedly warned of ‘200% tariffs or something’ on China if it does not export rare-earth magnets to the U.S. China’s CSI index fell 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.18%, Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.97% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.95%.

The Australian share market dropped 0.41% on Tuesday, following global weakness after Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs over digital services taxes and called for the removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook.

We are at the tail end of reporting season now with a few key themes emerging as we head into FY26 including cost management being the key to margin maintenance, the foundations are set for a stronger FY26 through headwinds easing and dividends signalling stability heading into the new financial year.

Yesterday, Coles Group (ASX:COL) reported a solid FY25 that beat expectations with strong outlook for FY26 which sent the share price of Australia’s major supermarket giant up over 8.5%.

Web Travel (ASX:WEB) tumbled over 7.5% on Tuesday after providing a trading update that signalled softer-than-expected results in the first half despite strong FX tailwinds experienced in the half.

And mining giant Fortescue (ASX:FMG) tumbled over 2% after FY25 results reflected the weaker iron ore market during the last financial year including NPAT falling over 40% and the company slashed its dividend to the lowest level in 7-years.

What to watch today: 

• Gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.32% lower at US$63.30/barrel, gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.96 US cents, 95.72 Japanese Yen, 48.45 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.53%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) from $5.50 to $5.90 and maintain a buy rating on the full-service funeral provider following the release of the company’s FY25 results including revenue growth of 7.9% and average revenue per funeral rising 1.3%. The company has also had a very strong start to the new financial year which has driven the price target increase.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Collins Food Group (ASX:CKF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 46-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $9.76 to the range of $12.10 to $12.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Major averages closed in the red on Wall Street overnight to start their trading week. The Dow Jones declined 0.77%, the S&P500 fell 0.43% and the Nasdaq down 0.22%. US investors awaiting Nvidia’s earnings and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge in the coming days.

European markets were mostly lower. The German DAX down 0.37%, France’s CAC declined further down 1.56%, after the country’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced he will be seeking a confidence vote in parliament next month over the government’s budget plans. The FTSE100 however closed in the green up just 0.13%, while the STOXX600 was lower, down 0.44%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 edged slightly higher at the close, ending the session with a 0.06% gain, as materials and energy stocks lead the market higher.

What to watch today:

• Following US equities overnight, the Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting at 0.21% drop at the open this morning.
• In economic news, the latest RBA meeting minutes will be released today, providing further insight into when the RBA slashed its cash rate by 25bps to 3.6% at its August meeting, matching market expectations and bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since April 2023.
• And as we near the end of reporting season, we still have a number of companies reporting their earnings results. Keep watch of the share price movements of Coles (ASX:COL), Fortescue (ASX:FMG), G8 Education (ASX:G8E) and Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO), just to name a few.
• In commodities:
  • Crude oil has advanced again, up 1.7% to US$64.74 per barrel the highest in nearly three weeks, extending a four-day rally as traders weighed geopolitical risks and monetary policy signals.
  • Gold is 0.2% lower at US$3,365.02 an ounce following a more than 1% gain in the previous session, as the US dollar attempted to recover after a dovish shift by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • And iron ore is in the green at US$101.60 per tonne, rebounding from last week’s losses.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Accent Group (ASX:AX1) and have lowered their price target to $1.80. At the current share price of $1.49, this implies 20.8% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Westpac (ASX:WBC) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $38.29.