Yesterday our local market closed slightly lower, down 0.04%, with energy and information technology down the most.  

On the ASX200 leaderboard, BNPL company ZIP Co (ASX:ZIP) advanced more than 16% after the company reported a 219% year-on-year increase in EBITDA of $46 million. 

Overnight, US equities closed in the red, with all three major benchmarks down after a significant tech sell- off and tariff concerns. The Dow Jones lost 1.7% or almost 700 points, the S&P500 closed 2.24% lower, while the tech- heavy Nasdaq closed 3.07% lower. 

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting the Australian market will fall 0.33% at the open this morning, following the heavy sell- off on Wall Street. 
• Keep watch of BHP Group (ASX:BHP) this morning as the mining giant is set to release its third quarter update.
• And in economic data, today Australia’s unemployment rate data for March will be released.  
• Looking at commodities, 
  • Crude oil is trading higher, 2.44% in the green at US$62.82 per barrel, as fresh US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian crude, reignited supply concerns. 
  • The price of gold reached a record high, trading up 3.25% at US$3,356.67 an ounce, as the increasing unpredictability of the US trade policy and low demand for the US dollar and Treasury securities has left gold as one of the main saf0- haven commodities. 
  • And iron ore is steady at US$100.19 a tonne.  

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains their Buy rating on Select Harvest (ASX:SHV) after the almond grower delivered a disappointing crop update with an approximate 10% downward revision to FY25 crop expectations. Bell Potter believe it was largely offset by stronger pricing outcomes, which look likely to be a greater benefit into FY26-27. Their 12- month price target remains unchanged at $5.80, and at SHV’s current share price of $4.60, this implies 26.1% share price growth in a year.
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $21.36.

Wall St closed modestly lower on Tuesday as investors shifted focus from tariffs to first quarter earnings results. The Dow Jones lost 0.38%, the S&P500 fell 0.17% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.05%. Bank of America rose 3.6% yesterday after exceeding analysts’ expectations for Q1 results, while Untied Airlines and Netflix are also expected to report this week. Boeing shares fell more than 2% though on Tuesday on reports that Beijing ordered Chinese airlines not to take anymore of the company’s planes.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region rose amid investor optimism of further tariff exemptions to come from the White House. The STOXX 600 rose 1.6%, Germany’s DAX added 1.3%, the French CAC gained 0.9% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.5%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly rose in the region as a tech rally boosted investor sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.84%, South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.88%, India’s Nifty 50 rose 2.18% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day up 0.23%.

The local market rallied for a second session on Tuesday with a gain of 0.17% after a day of relative calm with minimal news on the tariff front out of the White House. Investors increasingly sought out defensive stocks on Tuesday with CSL and CBA rising 2.56% and 0.87% respectively.

The high growth tech sector came under pressure on Tuesday despite strength on the Nasdaq on Monday and Trump’s exemption of key tech tariffs.
 KFC Australia operator Collins Food Group fell over 7.7% on Tuesday after announcing the results of its strategic review including the exiting of its Taco Bell operations in Australia and further expansion of KFC into Germany.

Accent Group on the other hand rallied over 4.5% after announcing it will launch and operate leading global sports retailing business, Sports Direct to Australia and New Zealand. The leading Australian retailer also announced a long-term strategic relationship with Frasers Group, a global retailer of sports, premium and luxury brands based in London, with Frasers also increasing its stake in Accent Group to 19.57%.

What to watch today:

• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 63.48 US cents, 90.82 Japanese Yen, 48.08 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.33% lower at US$61.32/barrel, gold is up 0.5% at US$3227.51/ounce and iron ore is up 0.13% at US$100.08/tonne. 
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.04%

 Trading Idea.s:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold and copper miner from $7.89 to $8.10 following the release of the company’s March quarter report which came in strong as Bell Potter was expecting. The downgrade to a hold simply follows recent share price appreciation.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 38-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.46 to the range of $10.10 to $10.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week in the green as investors welcomed the latest tariff exemption from Trump in the form of smartphones and computers in addition to other devices and components like semiconductors. The Dow Jones rose 0.78% on Monday, the S&P500 gained 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.64%. While the tariff exemption is welcome right now, Trump teased on Sunday that the exemptions are not permanent, i.e. the Trump tariff rollercoaster continues.

In Europe on Monday, markets closed higher as Trump exemptions boosted investor sentiment, temporarily. The STOXX 600 rose 2.7%, Germany’s DAX gained 2.6%, the French CAC added 2.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 2.4%.

Across Asia to start the week, markets in the region rallied as investor appetite for growth and tech stocks rose on Trump’s latest exemption announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.4%, China’s CSI index added 0.23%, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.18%, and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 0.95%.

Locally on Monday, the ASX200 started the new trading week with a significant rise of 1.3% as investors hold high hopes tariff relief after President Trump began scaling back some tariffs in recent days. Mining stocks regained momentum yesterday with the materials sector rising %, while 10 of the 11 sectors ended the day in the green.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals soared 21% yesterday after the drug maker announced the US FDA has approved the outcomes of a key trial of the company’s second drug candidate for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid Syndrome in Children, which paves the way for the company’s final US FDA approval of the drug before it hits the market.

Gold miners are again drawing investor attention as the price of the precious commodity rallied to yet another fresh record high on Monday and UBS lifted its gold price forecast for the second time in a week, this time to an average of US$3500/ounce in 2026.
On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.18% higher at US$61.61/barrel, gold is down 0.74% at US$3212.46/ounce and iron ore is up just 0.06% at US$99.95/tonne.

What to watch today:

• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.24 US cents, 90.50 Japanese Yen, 48.11 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia, the SPI Futures are anticipating the local market will open the day up 0.23% tracking global market gains overnight.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) from $1.97 to $2.58 and maintain a hold rating on the gold exploration and development company after Gold Road Resources announced its intention to vote in favour of the proposed all-scrip acquisition of DEG by Northern Star, as Gold Road Resources has an approximate 17.3% stake in DEG.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on SRG Global (ASX:SRG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.25 to the range of $1.38 to $1.42 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street ended the rollercoaster week of last week in the green on Friday after possibly the most volatile week in NYSE history as investors responded live to Trumps tariff updates as they were announced. The Dow Jones rose 1.56%, the S&P500 rose 1.81% and the Nasdaq ended the last trading session of the week up 2.06%. The rise in investor optimism on Friday was due to the White House remaining optimistic a deal on tariffs would be done with China. Let’s hope for some more clarity and calm on global markets this week.

In Europe on Friday markets in the region closed mostly lower to round off a choppy week for stocks in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.9%, the French CAC dropped 0.3%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed escalating trade wars with the US. Japan’s Nikkei lost almost 3%, South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.5%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.13% and China’s CSI index ended the day up 0.41%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 fell 0.82% with every sector aside from consumer discretionary stocks ending the day in the red, with healthcare taking the biggest hit amid Trump’s latest tariff announcement on producers in the sector. For the week, the ASX200 lost just 0.28% despite the extreme highs and lows of the trading week.

What to watch today:

• Gold miners rallied last week as the price of the precious commodity topped US$3200/ounce for the first time later in the week.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% higher at US$61.50/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3236.55/ounce and iron ore is up just 0.06% at US$99.95/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly improved against most currencies to buy 62.86 US cents, 90.64 Japanese Yen, 49.03 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.23%.
• This week will be interesting on the tariffs front as we ended last week with Trump raising total tariffs on China to 145% but backtracked on electronics and certain imports that support large caps like Apple.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from a hold to a sell as the analyst believes valuation has been overextended and the current share price prices in optimistic expectations. The analyst still believes Lynas is a high-quality business with viable growth options and a strong management team.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Waypoint REIT (ASX:WPR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 90-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price will rise from the close of $2.50 to the range of $2.65 to $2.69 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Time in the market, rather than timing the market, is what our strategist team at Bell Potter recommend this week, as the spike in market volatility has prompted some investors to contemplate moving their assets into cash as a perceived save haven during these uncertain times. 

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:11): Bell Potter’s view on timing the market
• (2:36): the cost of missing the market’s best days 
• (4:46): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:45): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (6:12): economic news items to watch out for. 

Market movements are up and down this week. Yesterday our local market closed 1.8% in the red, with energy and materials down the most. Champion Iron (ASX:CIA), Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) and Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) took the biggest hit down 12% to 14% in a single session. 

Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day pause on the 'reciprocal' tariffs his administration had applied to roughly 60 countries.

That means many countries will have their tariffs reduced to a universal rate of 10%, except for China, which will have its tariff increased to 125%. It comes after the U.S. increased tariffs on China to 104% yesterday, which a Chinese Government spokesperson called "economic bullying".

Australia's tariff was always at the 10% rate (which was the minimum rate imposed), so this means there has been no change for us.

Trump said the 90-day pause would allow "more than 75 countries" that had started negotiations with the White House, seeking to reduce its tariffs, to reach a deal.

The announcement of a pause led to a record-breaking day on the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones closed 7.87% higher, the S&P500 up a record 9.52%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 12.16%. It was a historic surge on Wall Street, with the S&P500 seeing its third- largest gain in a singe day since World War II. During the trading session, we saw surprising trading volume of approximately 30 billion shares, the highest level in history, as per records which date back 18 years ago. 

What to watch today:

Locally today, the SPI futures are 6.62% higher, after heavy buying in New York. 

The de-escalation in trade tensions helped restore confidence across community markets:

• Crude Oil has advanced 5.86% to US$63.07 per barrel
• Natural gas is up 7.75% 
• Gold us up 3.58% to $3,084.62, as the US – China tensioned fueled the safe- haven demand 
• While iron ore is down 2%, trading at US$99.25. 

And one Australian dollar is buying US$0.62, 90.64 Japanese Yen, $0.48 British Pence and a NZ$1.09. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have upgraded their recommendation from JB Hi- Fi (ASX:JBH) from a Hold to a Buy and have maintained their price target of $99.00. at JBH’s current share price of $88.91, this implies 11.3% share price growth in a year. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in the ASX’s share price, indicating the stock price may rise today from it’s close of $66.21. 

Wall St closed lower overnight as investor concerns over Trump’s tariffs returned following a short-lived relief rally. The S&P 500 fell by 1.57%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.84% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 2.15% lower.

Over in Europe, markets snapped their 4-day losing streak with the STOXX600 closing 2.72% higher overnight. Gains were led by insurance and financial services stocks which rose 4.08% and 3.89% respectively. Germany’s DAX rose 2.48%, the French CAC jumped 2.5% and over in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended Tuesday’s trading session 2.71% in the green.

The local market recovered some of the market losses yesterday to close the day up 2.27% after a mass exodus from equities across global markets, since Trump’s liberation day widespread tariff handouts. Gains were led by the information technology and energy sectors which closed 4.63% and 4.06% higher respectively.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 1.88% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 3.86% lower at 58 US dollars and 36 cents a barrel, gold is trading 0.03% higher at 2982 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 1.74% lower at 100 US dollars and 85 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Mineral Resources and has a 12-month price target of $29. With a current share price of $16.38, this indicates a share price growth of 77% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is recommended.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on TPG Telecom, indicating that the share price may rise from the close of $4.85 to the range of $5.30-$5.45, on a pattern formed over 10 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week mostly in the red as investors piled out of equities for a third straight session after President Trump threatened even higher tariffs against China on Monday. Trading volume hit the highest level in 18 years yesterday with markets trading around 29 billion shares. The Dow Jones fell 0.91% on Monday, the S&P500 shed 0.23% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.1%.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region started the new trading week lower as investors continue to fear the global fall out of Trump’s Tariffs and implications on economic activity in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 tumbled 4.54%, Germany’s DAX lost 4.26%, the French CAC plummeted 4.8%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 4.4%.

Asia markets started the week with another sea of red as global trade war fears escalate following China’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plummeted 13.22%, China’s CSI index fell 7.05%, Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 7.83% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 5.57%.

Locally on Monday, the ASX200 tanked over 4% to post the biggest loss in 5-years after China retaliated with tariffs on US goods, escalating the global trade war and tensions on a global scale.

Abacus Storage King was among the only winners on Monday with a rally over 20% after its majority investor Ki Corporation and NYSE-listed Public Storage lobbed a proposal to buy the remaining stake for $1.47 a share.

Market heavyweights tanked yesterday, with CBA diving over 6%, so too did BHP and other miners as the price of iron ore slumped on global trade and demand concerns.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.75% to recover some of the heavy losses experienced in recent days.
• On the commodities front this morning, the sea of red continues with oil trading 1.12% lower at US$61.29/barrel, gold is down 1.65% at US$2987/ounce and iron ore is down 1.5% at US$102.64/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further weakened against the USD overnight to buy US$0.59, 88.67 Japanese Yen, 47.08 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Trajan Group (ASX:TRJ) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1.50 on the global developer of scientific measurement devices as the analyst sees the company is returning to growth. The analyst sees Trajan Group as offering deep value given it is trading at a 47% discount to close peer Tecan and a 60^ discount to major US peers.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 52-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.39 to the range of 75 to 85cps according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St was smashed again on Friday as investors fled equities amid concerns over Trump’s latest tariff implications on the US economy. The Dow Jones tumbled 5.5%, the S&P500 lost 5.97% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 5.8%. China’s commerce ministry said on Friday that it will impose a 34% levy on all US products without negotiation with President Trump, while tech and other stocks with exposure to China also tumbled as investors brace for impact on such company’s sales, financials and growth outlook.

In Europe on Friday, markets in the region closed sharply lower as investors digested Trump’s liberation day tariffs and after China retaliated with tariffs on the US. The STOXX 600 fell 5%, Germany’s DAX fell 4.7%, the French CAC lost 4.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down just shy of 5%.

Across the Asia region to end the week, markets closed lower as the global tariff sell-off extended into the region. China’s CSI index fell 0.59%, Japan’s Nikkei tumbled over 4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.52% and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day down 0.76%.

The local market tumbled 2.4% on Friday erasing 57b$ from the ASX200 after global markets reacted to Trump’s liberation day tariff handouts that were larger and broader than expected.

Our market followed the US free-fall on Thursday that saw the Nasdaq tumble 6%, the S&P 500 drop 4.84% and the Dow Jones decline 4%.

Stocks with exposure to the US market were heavily sold off as investors fled exposure to cost hikes faced by such companies under the new 10% blanket tariff on all Aussie exports bound for the US.

In the wake of global uncertainty, investors are increasingly dumping growth stocks in favour of supermarkets given their defensive nature, lack of exposure to the US and guaranteed earnings no matter the time of economic cycle.

Breville Group has been hit hard by the US tariff imposition with the company falling over 11% on Friday and over 6% on Thursday as the company manufactures in China and attributes a large portion of revenues to the US market. Breville has already started moving production out of China, however, will need to assess pricing and strategize to overcome the tariff implications.

Growth stocks associated with the AI revolution were also heavily sold off on Friday with NextDC falling over 6% while geolocation tracking app with a high presence in the US, Life 360, fell over 8%.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session to start the new trading week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 4.3% tracking the global sell-off on Friday.
• On the commodities front this morning it is a sea of red across the commodities space with oil down 3.14% at US$60/barrel, gold is down 0.57% at US$3020/ounce and iron ore is down 1.5% at US$102.64/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback over the weekend to buy US$60.02, 87.07 Japanese Yen, 46.77 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) from a buy to a hold and have lowered the 12-month price target on the gold producer from $2 to $1.30 per share after Q3 production missed guidance by 30%.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Generation Development Group (ASX:GDG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 53-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $4.36 to the range of $3.40 to $3.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Locally from Monday to Thursday, the ASX200 declined 1.53% as global market uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment. Materials and energy stocks took the biggest hit, as investors are concerned over the impact Trump’s tariffs on the global economy. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:10): the RBA’s cash rate decision
• (0:27): the global impact of Trump’s Liberation Day
• (2:37): Trump’s beef with Aussie beef explained
• (4:33): How Aussie companies may respond to tariffs
• (6:35): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (7:00): economic news items to watch out for.