Between the Bells

Wall St saw a pullback to open this week, with the losses once again lead by the recently struggling tech sector. The Dow Jones lost 1.2%, the S&P500 dropped 1% while the Nasdaq slipped 0.9%. Nvidia was a big factor weighing down the market, dropping 3% ahead of its Q3 results which are scheduled for Thursday morning Sydney time, as investors remain anxious about stretched evaluations. The results are expected to shape the trajectory of the entire sector for the next few weeks.

In other overseas markets, Europe and Asia saw similar results to the US, with a sea of red across all the major indexes, including the European Stoxx600, Chinese CSI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng which all dropped over half a percent.

Locally yesterday, the ASX technically did buck the global trend and close in the green, although it was only 1.9 points or 0.02% up. This result did however ensure that the ASX avoided what would have been its longest losing streak since June, had it closed down again. 

What to watch today:

• Today however, the ASX is expected to follow the slip we saw abroad overnight, with the SPI futures indicating a 0.6% drop at the open. 
• Crude Oil is trading down 0.64% at 59 USD and 71 cents per barrel
• Precious metals have also seen similar drops, with gold down 1% to 4042USD per ounce, and silver down 0.76% to 50USD per ounce. 
• Iron ore is trading up 0.45% at 104.42USD per tonne. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on agricultural chemicals supplier Elders (ASX:ELD) with a 12-month price target of $9.45, after the company reported strong results and positive guidance for FY26. 
• And Trading Central have identified a Bearish signal in Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX:ABB), indicating that the price may fall from the close of $5.51 to the range of $4.80 to $4.95 over a period of 60 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Well it was another mixed session on Walk Street to end the trading week. The S&P500 continued to fall with the High Beta segment down the most, while Energy held up the most among the S&P large cap segments. On Friday the S&P500 closed 0.05% in the red, the Dow Jones 0.65% in the ted, while the Nasdaq gained 0.13%, regaining losses after coming under pressure recently. Nvidia’s earnings are also out on Wednesday, so investors will be watching out for that.

European markets were all in the red as concerns around artificial intelligence stocks continue. The German DAX down 0.69%, France’s CAC down 0.76%, FTSE100 1.11% lower, and the STOXX600 down 1.01%.

On Friday our local market closed 1.54% lower over the week and 1.36% lower for the day, hitting a 4-month low. Losses were wide spread, however tech stocks dragged down the market the most on Friday, with the sector heavily falling 4.32%. A few key factors weighing down on the maker last week included hotter than expected jobs report which came out on Thursday, which slashed expectations for rate cuts this year. We also know that key monthly data on US inflation might not be released for the month due to the shutdown US. And weak economic data was released from China as well.However it’s important to note that YTD number for the Australian and US market are still positive.

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting the local market will drop 0.2% at the open this morning.
• Elders (ASX:ELD) shares will be on watch today when the agribusiness company releases its FY 2025 results.
• In commodities:
   
  • We’ll keep watch of energy producers today, such as Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) or Santos (ASX:STO) as oil prices pushed high on Friday, driven by news that a Russian port has suspended oil exports falling an attack. Crude oil is up 2.4% to US$60.09 per barrel. 
  • Meanwhile, gold has dropped over 2% now at US$4083.60 an ounce, though the metal remained on track for a weekly advance of roughly 3%. The market continued to grapple with uncertainty stemming from a significant backlog of US economic data following the end of the longest government shutdown in the country’s history.
  • And iron ore has dropped slightly, to US$103.95 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have a buy rating on medical device company Aroa Biosurgery (ASX:ARX) with a price target of $0.85. At the current share price of $0.72 this implies 18% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in NAB (ASX:NAB), indicating that the stock price of $41.48 nay fall to the range of $38.70 - $39.30, over 52 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

From copper’s new “critical mineral” designation to major investment in Australian iron ore, markets were driven by shifting supply dynamics this week. Precious metals surged as the gold-silver ratio tightened, hinting at improving industrial sentiment, while oil prices weakened after OPEC projected a more balanced market ahead. Together, these moves underline how future supply and the global energy transition are shaping commodity pricing.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:26): copper’s new designation in the US and what it means
• (2:00): gold and silver back in the spotlight
• (3:08): why oil prices have slumped on supply reports
• (3:43): how the local market performed this week
• (4:36): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:03): economic news items to look out for next week.

Overnight in the US, Wall St saw a very similar trading day to yesterday’s, with the Dow Jones advancing 0.7% to reset its record, while the Nasdaq slipped a further 0.3%, lead once again by reevaluations in the high flying AI sector. The S&P500 meanwhile edged 0.2% higher on the day.

Across the pond Europe’s strong momentum continued with another day of solid gains. The Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.71%, drive primarily by Germany’s DAX and the French CAC, which added 1.22 and 1.04% respectively. The FTSE lagged behind, only edging up 0.1% higher.

Asia saw a mixed session, as the Hang Seng and Nikkei added 0.85% and 0.43% respectively, while China’s CSI index closed down 0.1%. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX saw its second straight day of the market opening higher, but ending the day in the red. The ASX 200 slipped 0.22%, despite 6 of the 11 key sectors in the green. 

Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) was the biggest winner, with investors impressed by the announcement of a new deal with South Korea’s POSCO to sell a 30% stake in its lithium operations for 765 million USD. 

On the losing end, popular tech stock Life360 (ASX:360) tumbled 13% after reporting lower than expected user growth numbers, and Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) slipped a further 3% after yesterdays sell off as investors continue to weigh the disappointing results. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures indicate that the ASX will open slightly higher, with a 0.12% gain. 
• In precious metals, Gold and Silver continue to extend their recent rallies, with gold up a further 1.7% to just under $4200 USD per ounce, while silver is trading another 4.1% higher at 53 USD and 30 cents per ounce. 
• Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices have plummeted nearly 4 and a half percent down to 58 USD and 40 cents per barrel, after a recent OPEC report suggested that global oil supply is expected to match demand in 2026, marking a shift from previous forecasts which had predicted a supply deficit. 
• And Iron ore is trading up 0.6% to 104USD and 17 cents per tonne. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on gaming machines supplier Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) and increased its 12-month price target to $80 per share, based on its forecasted NPAT and EBIT growth from ongoing R&D projects. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Regis Resources (ASX:RRL), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $6.88 per share, to the range of $7.40 to $7.60 per share over a period of just 17 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

In the US, Wall St saw a mixed session overnight, with the Dow Jones closing up 1.18% to set a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.25% as volatility in the AI sector continues. Nvidia pulled back 2% from yesterday’s rally on news that Japanese investment holding company SoftBank had sold its entire 5.8 billion USD stake in the company. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 also saw gains overnight, adding 0.21%. 

In Europe, markets across the continent carried their momentum from yesterday as optimism following the end of the US government shutdown continued. The pan European Stoxx 600 index closed up 1.3%, as the FTSE and French CAC saw gains of over 1%, while the German DAX was slightly behind, only advancing half a percent.  

Back home yesterday, despite opening in the green and seeing 8 of the 11 key sectors positive, the ASX 200 declined 0.2% on the day. It was primarily weighed down by the financial sector, where the big story was Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) shares tumbling 6.6%, after the bank reported higher net interest margin and cost pressure than expected. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today’s trading session, the SPI futures indicate that the ASX will open up 0.2%.
• Both gold and silver have continued to rally, bringing them now to a 5% and 8.5% advance on the week so far respectively. Gold is currently trading at 4129USD per ounce, while silver is at 51USD per ounce.  
• Crude oil is trading 1.5% higher at nearly 61 USD per barrel, as the US recently announced fresh sanctions on Russian oil along with optimism on the impending end of the government shutdown. 
• Iron ore is down 0.4% at 103 UD and 56 cents per tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has upgraded its recommendation on pharmaceutical giant Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) from a hold to a buy, with a 12 month target price of $320 per share, based on its baseline revenue forecast along with the announcement of 3 new major deals in the US. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in pathology services provider Australian Clinical Labs (ASX:ACL), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $2.64 to the range of $2.99 to $3.07 over a period of 12 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

In the US overnight, investors were buoyed by renewed optimism following news that 8 Democratic senators broke from party leadership and voted to end the Government shutdown, which has been running now since the 1st of October. Wall St responded with strong gains – the Dow Jones advanced 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, while the Nasdaq saw a 2.3% jump, lead by strong rallies across the tech megacap stocks. 

Europe and Asia saw similar trends to the US, with a sea of green across all the major markets. In Europe, the British, German and French indexes all advanced more than 1%, while in Asia the Chinese CSI, Japanese Nikkei and Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 0.35, 1.26 and 1.55% respectively. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX opened the week on a positive note, advancing 0.8% in its strongest day in a month. 9 out of the 11 key sectors closed in the green, lead by a strong rebound in Information Technology, which has been hit particularly hard in recent trading days. Notable stocks in the sector include Life360 (ASX:360) which advanced 3.6%, and WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC), which rebounded 6.2%. 

What to watch today:

• And looking ahead to today, yesterday’s positive momentum is expected to continue, with the SPI futures indicating a further 0.5% jump for the ASX at the open. 
• In commodities, the price of both Gold and Silver have surged as investors react to soft economic data coming out of the US and increased belief that a further rate cut will come from the Fed in December. Gold is up 2.8% to 4114 USD per ounce, while Silver is up 4.3% to 50.5USD per ounce.  Meanwhile, Crude Oil is trading up 0.7% at 60.1 USD per barrel, while Iron Ore is trading up 0.6% to 104 USD per tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has upgraded its rating on Western NSW based copper and gold miner Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) from a hold to a buy, with a target price of $0.65 per share. This comes on a trio of big announcements which are catalysts for future growth: an $80m equity raise, discovery of a maiden ore reserve at one of its key sites, and the sale of some small scale copper assets. 
• And trading central have identified a bullish signal on Regis Resources (ASX:RRL), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $6.70 per share, to the range of $7.40 to $7.60 per share over a period of 16 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street ended the trading week mixed, as Tesla and artificial intelligence stocks put pressure on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed 0.22% in the red, while the Dow Jones and S&P500 gained 0.16% and 0.13% respectively.

European markets were all in the red, amid concerns around artificial intelligence valuations. The STOXX600 closed 0.6% lower.

On Friday the ASX200 closed 0.66% in the red, with information technology and financials dragging down the market the most. Five of the eleven industry sectors were in the red.

What to watch today:

• However, our local market is set to regain some of those losses, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.26% gain at the open this morning, amid investor optimism that a US government budget will end the government shutdown.
• Investors will also be watching ANZ Group (ASX:ANZ)today, set to release it’s full year results today. Macquarie analysts are expecting ANZ to report operating income of $22.3 billion, operating expenses of $12.74 billion, and cash earnings of $6.383 billion, in line with the consensus estimate.
• Looking at commodities:
  • Crude oil is ending the trading week up 0.54%, regaining some of the week’s loses, however overall, posted the second weekly loss as fears of a potential oversupply ccontinued to weigh on the market. OPEC+ output increased last month as key members resumed halted production, while non-OPEC producers also ramped up supply. In response, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, slashed its December crude prices for Asian buyers.
  • Meanwhile, Gold has climbed 0.6% to US$4,000.98, supported by soft US economic data that fuelled expectations that the Fed could lower interest rates in December.
  • And iron ore reached the lowest in four months, amid poor demand. Steel exports out of China, the world's top producer, fell by more than 12% from the previous year. Despite this, iron ore imports were 10.2% higher reflecting the downward pressure on global demand for Chinese steel.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains their Buy rating on REA Group (ASX:REA) following a mixed quarterly update from the online property services business. REA operated online property advertising, property-related services and financial services, which includes leading residential property website realeastate.com.au. Bell Potter have reduced their price target from $256.00 to $244.00, and at the current share price of $209.20, this implied 16.6% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Metcash (ASX:MTS) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.92 to the range of $4.04 - $4.08 over 32 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Volatility remains high, but the local market continues to hold firm. October brought a mix of global rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions, and steady domestic data, keeping investors cautious but optimistic. With the RBA likely to stay on hold until 2026 and small-caps leading the way, selective investing remains key as markets balance risk and resilience.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (1:10): factors from abroad - the US economy and geopolitical landscape 
• (1:40): domestic news and its impact on the market
• (2:53): key risks to watch looking forward
• (3:24): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (4:11): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (4:52): economic news items to look out for next week.

Wall St rebounded overnight from yesterday’s sell off with all three of the major indexes closing in the green. The Dow Jones added 0.48%, the S&P500 gained 0.6%, while the Nasdaq rebounded the most, up 0.9%. The AI sector which was hit particularly hard yesterday recovered a lot of ground lead by AMD, which posted strong third quarter earnings and beat guidance. 

European markets saw a similar rebound, with advances across the board. The pan-European Stoxx600 closed up 0.23%, the UK’s FTSE gained 0.64%, the German DAX advanced 0.42% and the French CAC added 0.1%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX closed down 0.1%, marking its 6 day of losses in the last 7 trading days. Materials were the main sector weighing down the market, with big names seeing losses across the board. Fortescue (ASX:FMG) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) slipped 2.5% and 1.2% respectively, while in Gold Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) and Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) also saw declines of over 1%. 

Popular defence stock DroneShield (ASX:DRO) tumbled 7.5% yesterday on news that it had vested more than 40 million performance options to employees upon hitting key revenue targets. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, following overseas trends the SPI futures indicate that the ASX will rebound from recent losses with a 0.75% jump at the open. 
• In commodities, Crude Oil is trading down a further 1.5% at 59.65USD per barrel, Gold and Silver have both rebounded 1.3% and 1.9% respectively to 3983USD and 48USD per ounce, and Iron Ore is up 0.2% to 104.73USD per tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have maintained their Buy rating on integrated marketing communications provide IVE Group (ASX:IGL), and increased their 12 month target price to $3.25 after the company announced two new business acquisitions and a marketing services agreement, with the impact of which expected to hit over the next 12 months.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $25.16 to the range of $27.10 to $27.50 over a period of 35 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Overnight in the US Wall St was a sea of red as all 3 major indexes saw sizeable declines. The Dow Jones fared the best, falling 0.53%, while the S&P500 retreated 1.17%, and the Nasdaq was hit the hardest, closing down 2.04%. The AI sector remains the most in focus as investors continue to be concerned that valuations far outweigh fundamentals - big names such as Oracle, AMD, Nvidia and Amazon all pulled back, while Palantir shares dropped 9% after releasing its quarterly results despite beating guidance.

Both Europe and Asia saw similar trends overnight, as the majority of the major markets closed in the red. In Europe, the German DAX and French CAC fell 0.76% and 0.52%, although the UK’s FTSE was the exception, advancing 0.14%. In Asia, China’s CSI, the Hong Kong Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei all closed down over 0.75%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 dropped 0.9% to its lowest point in nearly 6 weeks off the back of the RBA’s monthly cash rate meeting, as governor Michelle Bullock warned that there could be more inflationary pressure in the economy than expected. Although the RBA’s decision to leave the rate unchanged was widely expected, the cautious tone regarding inflation in their monetary policy statement left investors concerned.

Utilities saw the biggest decline on the day amid plans by the federal government to force power companies into offering customers 3 free hours of power in the middle of the day – Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) and AGL (ASX:AGL) slipped 3.8 and 3.7% respectively. 

What to watch today:

• Ahead of today’s trading session however, the SPI futures indicate that the ASX will rebound with a 0.2% jump at the open. 
• In commodities, prices across the board have seen drops over the last 24 hours. Gold has continued its slump, trading down 1.8% to 3930 USD per ounce, Silver has dropped over 2% to 47 USD per ounce, crude oil is also trading down 1.1% to 60USD and 37 cents per barrel, and Iron ore is down 1.25% to 104.50 USD per tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on cyber security provider Spirit Technology Solutions (ASX:ST1), and raised its 12 month price target from 60 cents to 65 cents per share. At the current price of 55 cents per share, this implies a 15% share price growth within the year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Bapcor Ltd (ASX:BAP), indicating that the price may fall from the close of $2.42 to the range of $1.65 - $1.80 over a period of 9 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.