Between the Bells

In the US, Wall St kicked off November with a mixed session overnight. The Dow Jones closed down 0.48%, the S&P advanced a little over 0.1%, while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0.46%, spurred on by gains in the AI sector. The biggest news was the announcement of a major $38 billion deal between OpenAI and Amazon, which lead to Amazon shares jumping a further 4%. 

Europe too saw a mixed session – the Stoxx600 closed nearly flat as declines of 0.16% in the UK’s FTSE and 0.14% in the French CAC offset a 0.73% jump in Germany’s DAX. Meanwhile, Asian markets closed green across the board, lead by gains of 0.97%, 0.27%, and 2.12% in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI and Japan’s Nikkei. 

Locally yesterday, despite opening down and falling as low as 0.4%, the ASX200 closed out the day up 0.15%, driven primarily by gains across the banks. Westpac (ASX:WBC) saw the biggest gain, adding 2.8%, while CommBank (ASX:CBA), NAB (ASX:NAB), and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) all advanced 2.3%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively. On the losing end, healthcare continued its run of poor performance, with major names ResMed (ASX:RMD) dropping 4.3%, and CSL (ASX:CSL) continuing its freefall with another 1.7% drop. 

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures are predicting the ASX will open down for a second straight day, indicating a 0.1% drop at the open. 
• In commodities, Gold, Crude Oil and Iron ore are all trading flat today with no changes in their prices. Gold remains at $4003 USD per ounce, Crude Oil at 61 USD per barrel, and Iron Ore at 105 USD per tonne. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its current Buy rating on defence name DroneShield (ASX:DRO) with its current 12 month price target at $5.30 per share, after they announced a new $25.3 million contract in Latin America with delivery and payment through the next 2 quarters. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $25.12 to the range of $27 - $27.40 over a period of 33 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St ended last week’s trading session in the green, with all 3 key indexes closing up. The S&P500 added 0.26%, the Dow Jones advanced 0.09%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 0.61%, mainly driven by a nearly 10% surge in Amazon shares after announcing strong quarterly results.

In contrast, European markets dropped across the board, as investors reacted to a flurry of quarterly results, regional economic data and recent policy announcements.  The Stoxx 600 ended down by 0.51%, The U.K.'s FTSE and France's CAC both closed lower by 0.44%, and Germany's DAX ended 0.67% down.

Locally on Friday, the ASX closed flat to end the trading, as strong gains for gold miners across the market were offset by declines mainly in the consumer discretionary sector. Westgold (ASX:WGX) and Newmont (ASX:NEM) added 6% and 3.5% respectively, while on the other end JB Hi-Fi fell 3.4% and Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) lost 2.5%.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of today’s trading session, the SPI futures are indicating that the ASX will open the new week slightly down, predicting a 0.06% decline.
• In commodities, gold is trading down half a percent at 4004 USD per ounce. Crude oil is up 0.68% at 60.9 USD per barrel, and iron ore is trading up less than 0.1% at 105 USD per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has updated its recommendation on Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV) from a Hold to a Buy after positive Q1 FY26 results suggest its retail sales trajectory is improving.
• And trading central have identified a bullish signal in New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $4.19 per share to the range of $4.40 to $4.46 per share over a period of 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Has the AI rally run out of steam or is the train just taking off? Join Grady Wulff in her final Weekly Wrap for 2025, as she discusses the earnings results of the Magnificent 7 and how the AI revolution is impacting earnings growth.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:46): Microsoft’s standout quarter, beating Wall Street’s expectations
• (2:02): how Alphabet’s use of AI and cloud strategy boosted revenue
• (3:12): Investors react to Meta’s third quarter results amid a major tax bill
• (5:05): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:54): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:22): economic news items to watch out for.

The US overnight saw an overall mixed trading session - the Dow Jones retreated 0.16% and the S&P500 0.11% from their record highs on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that there may not be further interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the tech heavy Nasdaq bucked the trend and advanced 0.55%. The jump was primarily driven by Nvidia, which added a further 3% overnight and became the first company in history to hit the 5 trillion US dollar market cap milestone.

All eyes are now on the post close, where investors will react to the biggest earnings day for the megacap tech stocks, with Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet results all due.

Europe overnight also saw a mixed session – the Stoxx600 traded nearly flat, The UK’s FTSE gained 0.61%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC retreated 0.64% and 0.19% respectively.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 slid almost 1% in its worst trading day since September as worse than inflation results dashed investors hopes for another interest rate cut this year. The major banks were among the hardest hit, with CBA (ASX:CBA), NAB (ASX:NAB) and Westpac (ASX:WBC) falling 2.1 2.6 and 3.1% respectively. The real estate sector, which is also sensitive to interest rates declined as well – Stockland (ASX:SGP) and Mirvac (ASX:MGR) closed down 3.9% and 2.1%.

Of the key sectors, healthcare performed the worst of all largely weighed down by CSL (ASX:CSL), which slid a further 4% to its lowest price since 2018 following a downgrade on its projected earnings. On the winning side, Uranium stocks performed very well after the US Government, Brookfield and Cameco announced a transformational partnership, with at least 80 billion USD committed to building new nuclear power reactors. The highlight of the day was Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) which jumped nearly 20%, while the broader Uranium ETF ticker code ATOM was up 8.7%.

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today’s trading session, the SPI futures indicate the ASX200 will open down a further 0.36%, building on yesterday’s losses.
• In commodities, Gold is trading down a further 0.58% at 3929 USD/ounce, crude oil is trading 0.35% higher at 60 US dollars and 36 cents per barrel, and Iron ore is trading nearly flat at 105 US dollars and 66 cents per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has updated its rating on Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) from a Hold to a Buy and increased its 12 month target price to $30.70 per share, off the back of promising Q12026 results showing growing revenues across multiple areas of the business.
• And trading central have identified a bearish signal in James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $33.87 to the range of $26.25-$27.50 per share over a period of 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors bought back into the AI thematic ahead of the Fed’s anticipated rate cut announcement at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting this week. The major averages reset record highs again on Tuesday with the Dow jones rose 0.34%, while the S&P500 gained 0.23% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.8%.

In Europe overnight markets closed mixed as the UK’s FTSE100 hit a fresh record high closing up 0.44% while the STOXX 600 fell 0.22%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.12% and the French CAC ended the day down 0.27%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mostly lower as investors digested a new rare earths deal signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Japan’s new Prime Minister Senae Takaichi. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.33%, China’s CSI index fell 0.51% and South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.8% on Tuesday.

Locally on Tuesday, the ASX200 posted a 0.48% loss despite records set on Wall St on Monday and prospects of a trade deal between the US and China nearing fruition. The local market sell-off was due to heavy weights tumbling like WiseTech Global which plunged over 15.5% and CSL which also ended the day down over 15.5%.

WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) had investors fleeing yesterday after reports surfaced that the Australian Federal Police and ASIC allegedly raided the offices of the company in search of information related to share sales by the company’s founder and several colleagues.

CSL (ASX:CSL) tanked after downgrading guidance amid softer demand for influenza vaccines in the US and the company also announced it is delaying the demerger of Seqirus, its vaccine division, until market conditions improve.

Investors also sold out of Liontown yesterday after the lithium miner released a quarterly update outlining a small increase in production but a sharp decline in sales and higher costs during the period.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.25% lower at US$59.93/barrel, gold is down 0.65% at US$3955.58/ounce and iron ore is down 0.01% at US$105.56/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.89 US cents, 100.09 Japanese yen, 49.02 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.17%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) from $1.15 to $1.30 per share and maintain a buy rating on the lithium producer following the release of the company’s Q1 trading update including lithium concentrate production and sales that topped Bell Potter’s expectations while revenue fell slightly short due to weaker realised prices and a delayed shipment.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over the period of 259 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $9.10 to the range of $11.80 to $12.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US stocks saw a record-breaking session overnight, with all 3 major indexes closing at new all times highs off the back of cooling US-China tensions and optimism over a trade deal later this week. The S&P 500 advanced 1.23%, the Nasdaq rallied 1.86% - largely bolstered by strong gains for Nvidia and other chip stocks – while the Dow Jones jumped 0.71%.

Similarly, Asian markets saw a large jump, lead by a 1.19% jump for China’s CSI index, and a 2.46% jump for Japan’s Nikkei. Europe also saw gains but to a lesser extent – the Stoxx600 advanced 0.22%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.28%, the French CAC saw a 0.16% jump, while the FTSE closed 0.09% higher.

Locally yesterday the ASX200 advanced 0.41% - despite 8 of the 11 key sectors in the green, it was slightly weighed down by a 0.63% drop in the healthcare index. It was a tough session too for Rare Earths Miners off the back of optimism that the US and China will come to an agreement to resume normalised Rare Earths trade, cooling off some of the building steam in the sector. Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) saw a 6.87% drop, while Arafura Rare Earths (ASX:ARU) dropped nearly 10%.

What to watch today:

• In commodities, Gold has continued its recent retreat, down another 3.18% to 3981 US dollars per ounce, meaning it is now down nearly 9% over the last week. Crude Oil is trading flat at 61.5 US dollars per barrel, while Iron Ore is up 0.15% to 105 US dollars and 57 cents per tonne. 
• Despite the strong gains in the US overnight, the ASX200 is actually expected to fall at the open this morning, with the SPI futures indicating a 0.43% drop.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) with a 12 month target price of $7 per share. At the current closing price of $5.34 per share, that implies a 24% share price growth over the next year based on current earnings estimates and guidance.
• And Trading Central have identified a Bullish signal in Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR), indicating the share price may rise from the close of $1.63 per share, to the range of $2.10 to $2.25 per share over a period of 41 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed in record territory on Friday after cooler-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. boosted investor optimism that the Fed can continue on its rate cutting journey. The Dow Jones rose 1.01% to close at a record over 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P500 added 0.8% also at a fresh record and the Nasdaq rounded out the trifecta of records closing the day up 1.15%. September CPI in the U.S. came in at a rise of 0.3% taking annual inflation to 3%, below the 0.4% and 3.1% readings economists were expecting.

In Europe on Friday markets closed higher as U.S. inflation came in lower than expected. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX added 0.13%, the French CAC closed flat, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed higher as reports surfaced that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China will resume this week. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.35%, South Korea’s Kospi Index added 0.11%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.74%.

The ASX200 posted a 0.15% loss on Friday as President Trump ended trade talks with Canada and negotiations with China failed to progress on Friday especially over rare earth supplies, causing investors to remain concerned over the instability of the global trade landscape.

Mount Gibson Iron tanked over 25% on Friday after the Australian iron ore producer announced a significant rockfall event at the company’s Koolan Island operations has forced the halt of production at the operation of the 80-year-old mine. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.5% lower at US$61.50/barrel, gold is down 0.34% at US$4111.89/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$105.55/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.47 US cents, 100.02 Japanese yen, 48.84 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.3%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Elsight (ASX:ELS) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1.90 on the tech company that specialises in creating secure, continuous, and reliable communication solutions for unmanned systems like drones and robotics. Elsight is a buy  from Bell Potter’s analyst because it provides a mission-critical communication platform for unmanned systems, positioning it as a pure-play enabler of the rapidly expanding global drone and defence markets. With strong validation from repeat OEM orders, accelerating sales investment, and a scalable, recurring-revenue model, ELS offers compelling growth and valuation upside.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 28-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $4.00 to the range of $4.80 to $4.95 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Record sales couldn’t save Nasdaq listed Tesla and Netflix from steep share price falls this week, as the companies navigated everything from expiring tax credits and global regulatory risks to intense competition. Meanwhile, the ASX200 posted a 0.39% slide (Mon – Thurs), as a slump in materials stocks weighed on market gains. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:26): why Tesla’s latest results show record sales but falling profits 
• (1:10): why Netflix missed third- quarter expectations 
• (2:02): how Coco-Cola is navigating the tough market environment 
• (2:49): earnings results from Woodside, Adairs & Air New Zealand 
• (5:13): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:53): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (6:22): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday as investors assessed further updates out of Washington signalling dwindling progress on the trade front between the U.S. and China. The Dow Jones lost 0.71%, the S&P500 declined 0.53% and the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.93%.

In Europe overnight markets in the region closed mixed as investors assessed corporate earnings results out in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.74%, the French CAC declined 0.63% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.93%.

Asia markets traded mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed key trade data out of Japan alongside the country’s new leadership transition. For September, Japanese exports increased 4.2% YoY to snap four months of declines, however, the data came in lower than economists were expecting of 4.6% growth. Japan’s Nikkei closed flat on Wednesday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.94%, South Korea’s Kospi Index rose over 1.5% and India’s Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.1%.

The local market closed the midweek session 0.71% lower as a materials sell-off of more than 3% weighed on gains among energy and tech stocks. The price of gold slumped over 6% overnight amid widespread profit taking and strength in the USD which spooked investors into panic sell mode out of gold miners on Wednesday. Genesis Minerals, Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources each fell over 10% at the closing bell on Wednesday.

Homewares retailer Adairs (ASX:ADH)  jumped 8.3% yesterday despite downgrading group sales forecast guidance for H1 to between $319.5m to $331.5m, down from the prior guidance of $324.5m to $336.5m, however margins were upgraded to the higher end of the forecast region at 59%-59.5%. Investors likely welcomed the pullback in promotional activity announced by the company amid moderated sales growth.

And weaker-than-expected revenue and rising jet costs hit Air New Zealand (ASX:AIZ) yesterday with shares in the airline falling 1% after the company announced it expects to report a pre-tax loss between NZ$30m and NZ$55m for the first half. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 4.25% higher at US$59.67/barrel, gold is down 0.52% at US$4103/ounce and iron ore is up 0.03% at US$105.53/tonne. 
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.92 U.S. cents, 98.64 Japanese yen, 48.51 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.17%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the copper producer following the release of the company’s September quarterly report including results meeting the analysts’ expectations for lower 1HFY26 production. The reason for the downgrade is simply due to recent share price appreciation of the company.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.74 to the range of $1.54 to $1.58 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

 Hedley and Grady dive into the key themes shaping the commodities market heading into 2026, from gold’s price rally to the outlook for copper, iron ore and beyond. 

Hedley & Grady discuss:

• (0:52): Drivers of the current gold price run & how far it can go
• (4:15): gold miners to watch in 2026
• (8:46): the importance of mining companies having multiple assets
• (10:22) outlook for copper with supply-demand equilibrium mismatch anticipated
• (14:06) copper names to watch in 2026
• (15:40) iron ore outlook and blue-chip mining giant diversification
• (17:12) metrics to monitor when considering mining investments in 2026
• (21:25) Hedley’s commodity ‘clock’ and what time it is in the cycle right now
• (24:00) commodities Hedley & Grady are bullish on for 2026
• (28:00) where investors have been buying recently in the commodities space
• (32:00) Hedley & Grady predict the gold price / ounce a year from now.

Note: This interview was filmed on 21 October 2025.