Between the Bells

In the US, all 3 major indexes snapped their winning streaks with overnight slides. The Dow Jones fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the tech heavy Nasdaq was hit the hardest, closing down 0.7% , largely spurred by Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stocks losing steam. 

In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed on Tuesday as government shake ups weighed on key areas of the market, while a materials rally offset some weakness. The STOXX 600 lost 0.15% on Tuesday while Germany’s DAX added 0.03%, the French CAC climbed 0.04% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.05%.  

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed in the region as chip-stocks saw volatility while Japanese government bonds rose to all-time highs. Japan’s Nikkei closed flat on Tuesday, and India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.12% while Hong Kong, China and South Korean markets were all closed for a holiday. 

The local market started the new trading week lower amid with a 0.27% decline on Tuesday amid lower trading volumes and a broad sell-off amongst the market. 

Gold miners offset some of the losses again yesterday with the price of the precious commodity once again soaring to new heights amid looming US interest rate cuts and the prospect of a prolonged US government shutdown driving demand for the safe-haven commodity. 

Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence data for October came in at a sharp decline of -3.5%, starkly different to the forecast rise of 3.1% as family finances weaken and economic uncertainty remains a concern. This weighed on the consumer discretionary sector yesterday as investors see falling consumer confidence as a sign of lower discretionary spend to come.

Web Travel (ASX:WEB) shares jumped over 2.5% after the hotel B2B organisation spun out of WebJet Group announced it was on track to deliver record EBITDA for FY26, while Brisbane Broncos (ASX:BBL)shares fell 12.8% a day after climbing over 20% as investors took some profits from the winning NRL team’s record close on Monday. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.24% lower at US$61.54/barrel, gold is up 0.63% at US$3987/ounce and iron ore is down 0.25% at US$104.22/tonne.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.04%. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have maintained their buy rating on biotechnology company Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) and raised the price target to $4 per share, after recent developments that its flagship drug Ryoncil has received a brand new J-Code in the US, allowing hospitals broader access to reimbursement when ordering the drug, and therefore increased projected revenue for Mesoblast. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE), indicating that the share price may rise from the close of $21.20 per share, to the range of $22.30 to $22.60 according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Monday as investor optimism increased for M&A as two major deals were announced for Comerica and AMD separately. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.8% on Monday and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.1%. AMD shares rose 23% on Monday after the company reached a deal with OpenAI to supply the leading AI generator with AI chips which could ultimately end up giving the ChatGPT maker a 10% stake in the chipmaker. Meanwhile, Comerica shares jumped 10% after Fifth Third Bancorp reached a deal to buy the fellow regional U.S. bank for US$10.9bn in an all-stock transaction.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly lower with the STOXX 600 closing flat as did Germany’s DAX closed flat, while the French CAC lost 1% after the country’s new prime minister called it quits after less than a month, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.13%.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed led by Japan’s Nikkei soaring 4% to a fresh record after the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, positioning her to become the country’s first female Prime Minister. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.67% and India’s Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.74%.

Locally to start the new trading week the ASX200 closed just 0.07% lower as a tech and healthcare sell-off offset strength among the materials and utilities stocks.  Gold and copper spot prices reaching a record and 16-month high respectively buoyed local producers yesterday with the outlook for continued momentum for both critical metals to extend for some time to come.

Brisbane Broncos (ASX:BBL) shares soared 27% on Monday to a record close after the club’s 19-year grand final winning drought ended on Sunday with the team taking out the winning title for 2025.

What to watch today: 

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.5% higher at US$61.79/barrel, gold is up a further almost 2% to yet another record US$3962.58/ounce and iron ore is up 0.25% at US$104.36/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.19 U.S. cents, 99.47 Japanese yen, 49.19 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.16%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has resumed coverage of Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) with a buy rating and 12-month price target of $30.00, up from $20.85 as the analyst sees NST as a stable, low-risk gold producer entering a phase of free-cash-flow harvesting in FY27 following the $1.5bn investment in the KCGM mill expansion from 12 million tonnes per annum to 27 million tonnes per annum.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Ventia Services Group (ASX:VNT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.24 to the range of $5.85 to $6.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

This week’s news was a mixed bag on the commodities front - the gold rush continued as the precious commodity soared to fresh record highs, while on the other end iron ore and lithium saw volatility off the back of major news coming out of China. Meanwhile, the US Federal Government saw its first shutdown in 7 years, sending ripples through global markets for investors.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:36): gold’s record-breaking run & what’s driving the rally
• (2:04): China’s ban on BHP imports; what it means for investors
• (3:24): another twist in the tale for Lithium
• (4:12): the impact of the US Government shutdown on the market
• (5:39): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (6:27): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (6:57): economic news items to look out for next week.

Overnight Wall St saw second consecutive record setting day, with the S&P500 closing up 0.34% to a new all time high. The Nasdaq also rose 0.42%, and the Dow Jones added 0.09% as investors remain confident that the US Federal Government shutdown will be brief and have little impact on the economy. 

European markets also saw a positive session, largely spurred by gains in the healthcare sector. This comes as a deal between Pfizer and Donald Trump to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid program in exchange for tariff relief was announced, sparking relief and optimism for the sector. The Stoxx600 gained 1.15%, the UK’s FTSE index added 1.03%, the German DAX closed up 0.98% and the French CAC gained 0.98%. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX closed nearly flat, declining just 0.03%. Despite 8 of the 11 sectors closing in the green, the market was weighed down by declines in the materials and consumer discretionary sectors. Lithium in particular was hit hard upon further news that Chinese mining giant CATL had received government approval to reopen its biggest mine, sparking oversupply worries. 

The defence sector, specifically counter-drone technology stocks continued their remarkable run yesterday, continuing its momentum from the EU’s recent commitment to the drone wall along its Eastern flank. DroneShield (ASX:DRO) surged 21%, while fellow company in the space Elsight (ASX:ELS) added 29%.

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures indicate that the ASX200 will open up 0.5% tracking the recent gains overseas recently. 
• In commodities, crude oil is trading down 1.02% today at $61 us dollars and 73 cents per barrel. Gold is trading up another 0.07% at 3861 US dollars per ounce, and silver is trading up another 1.27% at 47 US dollars per ounce, adding to its over 7% surge so far this week. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) and upgraded its price target to $49 per share on the back of its strong expected cash flow from iron ore sales. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CUV), indicating that the share price may rise from its current closing price of $12 per share, to the range of $15.10 to $15.90 over a period of 25 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St closed higher on Tuesday as investors overlooked government shutdown fears to post an unusually strong month of September. The Dow Jones rose 0.18% to close at a fresh record high while the Nasdaq added 0.31% and the S&P500 ended the day up 0.41%.

With a potential government shutdown looming, investors have been wary about a slowing labour market, the risk of stagflation and elevated stock valuation, so although government shutdowns aren’t usually market-moving events, this time we could see market movements as a result. In Europe overnight, markets closed higher led by Germany’s DAX rising 0.57%, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, the French CAC climbed 0.19% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.54%. 

Across the Asia markets on Tuesday, markets traded mixed as the latest data out of China showed manufacturing activity contracted for a 6th straight month, with the manufacturing PMI index coming in at 49.8 points. While still in contraction mode, the reading was better than economists were expecting and the strongest reading since March. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.25%, and South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.19%, while China’s CSI index gained 0.45%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.95%.

The local market closed 0.2% lower on Tuesday following a lacklustre session on Wall St on Monday and investors digested comments out of RBA Governor Michele Bullock after Australia’s central bank maintained the current cash rate at 3.6% for the next period. Materials and industrials stocks bucked the trend yesterday to close higher while energy stocks were the hardest hit amid declining oil prices.

Ms Bullock said market services inflation remains sticky and has been a key sticking point for the RBA’s rate journey over the last year adding to the difficult decisions made around Australia’s rate outlook pathway. For this reason, the RBA was content in holding the cash rate at the conclusion of yesterday’s meeting for the period ahead.

Seven West Media (ASX:SWM) and Southern Cross Media (ASX:SXL) shares rose over 7% and over 6% respectively yesterday on news of a proposed merger between the Australian media giants, while Restaurant Brands New Zealand soared almost 60% after receiving a takeover offer from its majority shareholder, Finaccess Restauracion, a Mexican company.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.5% lower at US$62.51/barrel, gold is up 0.33% at yet another record US$3845.83/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.09% lower at US$105.35/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 66.16 US cents, 97.82 Japanese Yen, 49.17 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.12%.

 Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Pantoro (ASX:PNR) from $2.15 to $2.80 and maintain a hold rating on the diversified mining services group as shares have climbed 130% in one year but some key catalysts and tailwinds including the gold price and new contract wins, are driving a strong growth outlook for the company which led the analyst to increase the 12-month PT and maintain a hold.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Infratil (ASX:IFT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 54-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $10.73 to the range of $9.40 to $9.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher across the major averages on Monday as investors bought back into the AI darlings a week after scepticism rose around the sustainable growth of the sector. The S&P500 gained 0.2%, the Nasdaq rose 0.48% and the Dow Jones ended Monday’s session up 0.15%. Shares of game maker EA Games rallied 4.5% after the company announced it’s going to be taken private in an acquisition worth US$55bn.

In Europe overnight markets closed higher to start the new trading week in the green. The STOXX600 rose 0.34%, Germany’s DAX added 0.02%, the French CAC climbed 0.13% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.16%.

Across the Asia region on Monday markets closed mixed with Japan’s Nikkei falling 0.69%, while South Korea’s Kospi index added 1.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.9% and China’s CSI index gained 1.54%.

Locally to start the new trading week, a healthcare rebound pushed the ASX to a positive close with the key index rallying 0.9% while the spot price of gold also reset a fresh record, propelling gold miners to new heights.

Defence stocks were all the rage for investors yesterday with DroneShield soaring over 18% while EOS climbed almost 13% amid a tense backdrop in Europe with NATO boosting air-defence assets in response to new drone incursions at a key military base in Denmark last week. EOS also released a sales update yesterday revealing it is expecting full year revenue from existing contracts to be $115m to $125m in FY25 however, new orders could boost this by $25m in addition to its contract backlog with an estimated value of $299m.

Synlait Milk share jumped 15% following the release of the company’s full-year results yesterday. The dairy processor reported a more than twofold increase in underlying EBITDA, reaching NZ$107.2 million for FY 2025. Additionally, Synlait announced an agreement to sell its North Island assets to global healthcare giant Abbott Laboratories in a deal expected to generate around NZ$307 million in proceeds. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.86% lower at US$63.18/barrel; gold is up 1.63% at a fresh record US$3829/ounce and iron ore is down 0.09% at US$105.35/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.78 US cents, 97.75 Japanese yen, 48.91 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.17%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) from $5.70 to $11 and maintain a buy rating on the Australian defence manufacturer specialising in advanced weapon systems and satellite tracking technology company following an update out yesterday including revenue guidance weaker than Bell Potter expected in the near term but strong tailwinds driving the long-term growth of the sector. Bell Potter has upgraded the 12-month TP reflecting a higher CY26e EV/EBITDA multiple due to strengthened confidence in longer term revenue growth.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on HMC Capital (ASX:HMC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.23 to the range of $2.55 to $2.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on Friday after personal consumption price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, came in as expected at 2.9% for the month of August. The major indices snapped a 3-day losing streak on Friday with the S&P500 rising 0.6%, while the Nasdaq added 0.44% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.65%, but for the week the key indices each posted a loss.

In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly higher led by the French CAC and FTSE 100 rising 0.97% and 0.96% respectively while the STOXX 600 added 0.8% and Germany’s DAX ended the day up 0.87%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed lower as investors assessed the 100% healthcare tariffs announced by Trump and continue to monitor trade tensions between the world’s largest economies. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.35%, India’s Nifty 50 declined 0.95%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.87% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 2.45%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.17% rise on Friday as a materials rally offset weakness among healthcare and utilities stocks.

Healthcare stocks tumbled on Friday after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies.

Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), CSL (ASX:CSL) and Telix (ASX:TLX) dropped between 2% and 3% on Friday, and even Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) and Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) were caught up in the sell off despite both companies confirming their products were exempt from the new tariffs.

Vulcan Energy (ASX:VUL) jumped 15% on a new contract signing to the value of $179m with a consortium to develop and build a geothermal power plant in Germany, while IperionX (ASX:IPX) rose 5.4% after receiving an additional US$25m award from the US department of War to strengthen the country’s defence strategy. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.32% higher at US$65.19/barrel, gold is up 0.5% at US$3768/ounce and iron ore is down 0.09% at US$105.44/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.45 US cents, 97.92 Japanese yen, 48.91 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.24%

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR) from a sell to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold production and development company from $4.40 to $5.35 following the release of the company’s FY25 results including a $112m turnaround from a $46m loss in FY24 to a $66m profit in FY25. PNR has demonstrated a step-change in cash generation and is on track for gold production growth YOY, as well as multiple production sources are now established, de-risking the outlook which led to the rating upgrades.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.73 to the range of $1.87 to $1.91 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

September’s volatility carried into this week, with global AI concerns, inflation, and visa uncertainties weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, gold surged to record highs, giving local miners a boost.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:12): Global market volatility and gold hitting new record highs
• (0:35): Australia’s latest monthly CPI print and implications for the RBA
• (2:30): unemployment holding at 4.2% and what this means for stability
• (2:58): GDP growth of 0.6% QoQ and signs of a rebound in per capita terms
• (4:45): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:35): most traded stocks and ETFs by Bell Direct clients this week
• (6:07): key data to watch next week – RBA decision, trade balance, US jobs & China PMI

Wall St continued its slide overnight, with all 3 of the major indices closing in the red for the second straight day. Investors continue to pull back from the AI industry with Nvidia sliding 1% and Oracle nearly 2%, as concerns about overvaluation persist. The broader market closed down 0.28%, the Dow Jones fell 0.37%, and the Nasdaq ended the session down 0.34%, as the AI slide was countered by a nearly 6% surge for Intel, after Bloomberg reported the chipmaker is seeking an investment from Apple.

Europe saw a mixed session overnight – the UK’s FTSE and German DAX both saw overnight gains or 0.29% and 0.23% respectively, while the French CAC fell over half a percent, and the broader STOXX 600 closed down 0.19%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX saw its worst trading day in 3 weeks, ending the session with a 0.92% decline. A large catalyst for the drop was ABS report that consumer prices rose 3.0% in the year to August, which was higher than economists had predicted – indicating that inflation remains sticky.  9 of the 11 major sectors closed lower, with only energy and utilities seeing gains, largely driven by a rise in oil prices. The financial sector took the biggest hit, especially the big 4 banks, which all slid between 1.5% and 3% on the day. 

What to watch today: 

• Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures indicate the ASX continue to slide, predicting a 0.47% drop at the open.
• In commodities, Crude Oil is trading up 2.09% at 64 US dollars and 73 cents per barrel after Donald Trump ramped up his hawkish rhetoric against Russia, sparking concerns about supply limitations.
• Gold is trading down 0.62% at 3740 US dollars per ounce, and Iron or is trading flat at $105.50 per Tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) and increased the target price from $3.55 per share to $4.10 per share, off the back of a report that the company’s end of August funds under management (FUM) reached $19.2billion, which beat forecasts.
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Champion Iron (ASX:CIA), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $4.59 per share to the range of $3.30 to $3.50 per share over a period of 101 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US overnight Wall St closed lower as investors pulled back from the recent AI run on comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell around equity prices being highly valued at present. The S&P500 closed 0.55% lower in afternoon trade, while the Nasdaq saw the biggest fall of 0.95%, and the Dow Jones is closed 0.19% lower so far on Tuesday.

In Europe overnight it was a different story with markets closing in the green following the record strength on Wall St on Monday. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX added 0.36%, the French CAC climbed 0.54% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mostly higher buoyed by a tech rally in the region after Nvidia announced a partnership with OpenAI. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 1.42% to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.99% and India’s Nifty 50 ended the day down 0.13%.

The local market started the new trading week with an extension of last week’s rally as investor optimism has been boosted by strength on Wall St and the gold price soaring to new records which has boosted gold stocks to new heights. On Tuesday, the ASX200 posted a 0.4% gain at the closing bell as financial and materials stocks led the day’s winning sectors.

Myer (ASX:MYR) plunged over 30% on Tuesday after the department store giant released its FY25 results including a slight sales increase, but investors were more focused on responding to the 13.8% decline in EBIT while NPAT fell 30% YoY to $36.8m. The company also reported gross margins for Myer DS down 65bps due to a mix change toward concessions and promotional activity, and reported a statutory net loss of $211.2m primarily due to the acquisition of Premier Investments’ apparel brands in January.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) rallied a further 6% yesterday after announcing that the US Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services has granted Transitional Pass-Through (TPT) payment status for Telix’s Gozellix drug candidate which is the company’s next-generation PSMA-PET imaging agent for prostate cancer.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.97% higher at US$63.50/barrel, gold is up 0.84% at US$3778/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$105.49/tonne.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.35% tracking Wall Street’s slide overnight.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its hold rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE) and lifted its target price from $35.75 per share to $38.22 per share, ahead of its annual showcase event where the company’s new products and developments will be highlighted.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Navigator Global Investments (ASX:NGI), indicating that the stock may rise from the close of $1.20 to the range of $2.43 to $2.51 over a period of 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.