Between the Bells

In the US, Wall Street advanced overnight, with all 3 of the key indexes in the green. The Dow Jones ended the day 0.25% higher, the S&P500 gained 0.21%, while the tech heavy nasdaq was the biggest winner, advancing 0.45% - mainly driven by a solid start to the week from giants Nvidia and Microsoft.

Europe also saw gains overnight – the stoxx600 closed 0.52% higher, the FTSE gained 0.14%, the French CAC saw a 0.78% increase, while the German Dax took the biggest step, ending the day up 0.89%.

Locally yesterday, the September sell-down continued as the ASX200 fell another 0.24% to open the new trading week. With 8 of the 11 key sectors in the red, information technology was one of the few areas gaining any traction, driven by a 6% rally for Life360 (ASX:360), and a 1.9% jump for Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC).

What to watch today:

• Looking ahead to today, despite the rally overseas the ASX is set to fall further, with SPI futures indicating a 0.35% decline at the open.
• In commodities, Gold remains the biggest story as it hit a fresh all time high on Monday crossing the $3600 US dollars per ounce threshold for the first time. It is currently trading up 1.15%, at 3634 us dollars and 10 cents per ounce. Demand for gold continues to grow primarily from the economic data coming out of the US – as data showed that unemployment has reached its highest level since 2021, while fewer jobs than expected were added in August.
• Crude oil is also trading higher, up 0.9% to 62 us dollars and 43 cents per barrel, while iron ore is trading 0.42% higher at 104 us dollars and 93 cents per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has placed a speculative buy rating on biotechnology company PYC Therapeutics (ASX:PYC), with a target price of $2.30 per share. At the current share price of $1.25 per share, this implies a 12 month return of nearly 85%.
• Bell Potter has maintained their hold rating on Solvar Limited (ASX:SVR), with the 12 month price target of $1.70 implying just a 3% growth on the current share price of $1.65 per share.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday as investor fears of a slowing economy rose after key U.S. non-farm payrolls data came in much weaker than expected. The Dow lost 0.5%, the Nasdaq declined 0.03% and the S&P 500 ended the day down 0.32%.

For the month of August nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs, significantly lower than the 75,000 jobs economists were expecting to be added. U.S. unemployment rate also rose to 4.3% for the month, up from 4.2% signalling a weakening labour market.

While a rate cut out of the Fed is almost certain now, investors are more concerned over the long-term impact of a slowing economy, and fears of a recession continue to rise.

In Europe on Friday markets closed lower as investors in the region also assessed the weakening economic condition of the U.S. following a weaker than expected jobs reading out on Friday. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.73%, the French CAC declined 0.31%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.09%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mostly higher after President Trump formalised lower tariffs on Japanese auto tariffs with a baseline tariff of 15% across all Japanese imports. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.71% and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.13%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.51% rise on Friday as real estate and discretionary stocks rose 1.37% and 1.33% respectively.

Gold stocks gained further ground on Friday amid the record price of the precious commodity as investors once again flocked to safe-haven assets in the wake of further global uncertainty.

Qantas (ASX:QAN) shares rose 1.5% on Friday on news that chief executive Vanessa Hudson’s bonus would be docked over the airline’s recent cybersecurity breach, while Orica shares added over 1% after the company signalled positive momentum is driving higher underlying earnings across its business for H2 ending September 30. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% lower at US$61.97/barrel, gold is up 1.3% at US$3592.50/ounce, and iron ore is down 0.04% at US$104.49/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.57 U.S. cents, 97.10 Japanese yen, 48.53 British pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the first session of the new trading week the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day down 0.2%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE) from a sell to a hold and have maintained the 12-month price target on the company at $35.75/share, amid changes in forecasting for the company with Bell Potter’s analyst and the market anticipating a beat in November. At a stock specific level, we do not see much risk of any disappointment or negative catalyst and, as mentioned, we already expect the company to exceed its guidance when it reports in November.
• And Bell Potter has also reduced the rating on Curvebeam AI (ASX:CVB) from a spec buy to a hold and have a 15cps price target on the company following the release of the company’s FY25 results including revenues and gross profit of $12.1m and $6.7m respectively. The reason for the downgrade to a hold comes from lack of guidance, Hi rise device sales continuing to be constrained by the Mako validation matter and the hybrid of capitalised earnings.

August reporting season closed with just 20–30% of companies beating expectations, as investors rewarded certainty in dividends, guidance, and cost control while punishing cautious outlooks. Standouts included Northern Star, Goodman Group, and JB Hi-Fi, while Woolworths, CSL, and James Hardie lagged on guidance misses. Looking to FY26, rate cuts, AI, gold, and resilient retailers are set to drive opportunity, but disciplined execution will be key.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:16): a look back at reporting season as a whole
• (1:03): why investors are valuing clarity and strong guidance
• (2:03): a dive into some key sectors, including retail, gold and real estate
• (5:22): the themes shaping FY26’s outlook
• (7:05): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:32): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (8:00): economic news items to look out for next week.

In the US, Wall Street closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones ended the day marginally down with a 0.05% decline, while the S&P500 gained 0.51% and the tech heavy NASDAQ advanced 1.02%, driven by strong gains from Alphabet and Apple.

Europe also saw a rebound overnight: the Stoxx600 closed up 0.66%, the FTSE gained 0.67%, the German DAX advanced 0.46% and the French CAC was the biggest winner, ending the day up 0.86%

Locally yesterday the ASX200 saw its worst day since April’s Liberation day, closing down a sharp 1.82%, with all 11 key sectors in the red. The sell off was primarily driven by rising bond yields in the global bond market – as investors are less willing to pay high prices for stocks with higher risk potential when bonds are paying higher interest rates.

What to watch today: 

• The SPI futures suggest the ASX200 will rally after a few consecutive days of losses and open up 0.41% - tracking overseas gains overnight
• In commodities:
  • Crude oil has dropped 2.77% to 63.77 US dollars per barrel, ahead of weekend meeting of OPEC producers that is expected to increase production targets in October
  • Gold has continued its record run, rising another 0.7% to a fresh high of 3559.47 US dollars per ounce. This renewed gold rally comes as investors seek a safe haven amid continuing expectations of a fed rate cut this month, further concerns over US debt levels, and renewed uncertainty around the US tariff implications and outlook.
  • Meanwhile, iron ore has risen 0.69% to 103.24 US dollars per tonne.
• Also today BHP (ASX:BHP) will go ex-dividend, so investors may notice a drop in the share price of around the dividend value for this reason.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on COG Ltd (ASX:COG) and raised the target price to $2.25 per share off the back of the company’s announcement of the 100% acquisition of EasiFleet Pty Ltd, effective September 1.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal on Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $290.81 to the range of $235-$245 per share over a period of 52 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower on Tuesday to kick off the September trading month in the red as investors took profits from the summer bull rally and hold concerns over tariff uncertainty after a federal appeals court on Friday ruled that most of Trump’s global tariffs are illegal. The Nasdaq lost 0.82%, the S&P500 dropped 0.7% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.55%.

In Europe overnight, markets tumbled amid a rise in bond yields and the prospect of further tariff uncertainty out of the US. The STOXX 600 fell 1.5%, Germany’s DAX fell 2.2%, the French CAC lost 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.9%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, market sentiment was hit by tariff uncertainty leading to a mixed session in the region. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.3%, India’s Nifty 50 gained 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.94%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day down 0.5%.

The local market started the new trading month lower with a 0.3% decline on Tuesday as investors digested the August reporting season showing a weaker outcome than expected for FY25 and repositioned portfolios for the tailwinds expected in FY26. Australia’s August reporting season delivered weaker-than-expected results, with only 20-30 % of companies beating earnings expectations compared with more than 80% in the US. Median earnings downgrades of 3.6% outpaced upgrades of 2% locally.

With some heavyweight market stocks trading ex-dividend yesterday and Wall St closed on Monday, investor moves were buoyed yesterday by strength among the banks and a rally among key commodity prices yesterday however this wasn’t enough to boost the ASX to a green finish.

Gold rose 1.4% to $3,496.24 per ounce, and silver surpassed $40 for the first time since 2011, driven by expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to ANZ.

Collin’s Food (ASX:CKF) soared over 7% yesterday after posting a 6.7% rise in total sales for the first 18-weeks of FY26 and the KFC Australia operator also reaffirmed guidance for FY26 targeting underlying NPAT of low-mid teens.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.33% higher at US$65.49/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3528/ounce and iron ore is up 0.71% at US$102.53/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.13 US cents, 96.70 Japanese Yen, 46.82 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down a sharp 0.42% tracking global market uncertainty overnight.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and have increased the 12-month price target on the homewares retailer from $6.00 to $8.30 following the release of FY25 results beating expectations and a strong start to FY26 especially from within the Australian business.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Supply Network (ASX:SNL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 268-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $36.02 to the range of $27.50 to $29.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US, Wall Street was closed on Monday due to the Labour Day public holiday.

In Europe, markets closed generally higher, spurred by a boost in the defence sector. The Stoxx 600 closed up 0.17%, the FTSE gained 0.1%, the French CAC advanced 0.05% and the German DAX was the biggest gainer at 0.57%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 0.51% lower with the majority of the key sectors in the red. Information Technology saw the biggest drop, closing down 2.65%, while on the other end consumer staples saw the biggest gain, closing up 0.35%. 

What to watch today:

• Ahead of today’s trading session, the SPI futures are suggesting the ASX will open the day down 0.09%.
• In commodities, 
  • Crude oil is up 0.97% to 64.63 US dollars per barrel. 
  • Gold is up 0.78% to 3476.08 US dollars per ounce, around $23 shy of its all time high.
  • While iron ore is trading lower, down 1.8% to 101.65 US dollars per tonne.
• Australia’s current account and export figures for Q2 are out at 11:30am AEST
• We’ll see earnings reporting from Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL), while Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) and Santos (ASX:STO) are set to go ex-dividend, which can often cause a drop in the share price of the dividend amount. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on Iron Ore miner Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) and increased the 12 month target price to $0.65, off the back of its new binding agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation granting it the exclusive right to mine and export 290 megatonnes of iron ore over 30 years at SMC’s Weld Range Iron Ore project.
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Breville Group (ASX:BRG), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $32.88 to the range of $28.10 - 29.00 over a period of 28 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street closed lower on Friday but higher for August marking the 4th month of gains for the NYSE. On Friday, the S&P500 fell 0.64%, the Nasdaq lost 1.15%, and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.2% as investors took money out of the market amid risks of inflationary pressures remaining persistent into the new month following the U.S. core PCE increasing 2.9% for July which was in-line with expectations but still showed acceleration of an inflation driver.

In Europe on Friday stocks moved lower as investors await key inflation data out in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.6%, Germany’s DAX also dropped 0.6%, the French CAC declined 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.3%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed key economic data out of Japan including Japan’s CPI rising at a slower pace in August. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.26% on Friday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.45%, China’s CSI index added 0.74%, and South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.32%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 closed 0.08% lower as a sell-off in REIT and financial stocks offset a more than 3% rise in tech stocks. For the month of August though, the local market posted a 2.6% rise as investors responded to strong outlook for FY26.

Homewares retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) jumped over 10% on Friday after reporting profits rose 39% in FY25 which well exceeded market expectations while Austal (ASX:ASB) also soared over 14% amid a record order pipeline and shipbuilding agreement with the federal government.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.91% lower at US$64.01/barrel, gold is up 0.91% at US$3448.50/ounce and iron ore is up 0.1% at US$101.81/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.48 US cents, 96.30 Japanese yen, 48.46 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the first trading session of the new month the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.3%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Lovisa from $31 to $42 (ASX:LOV) and maintain a hold rating on the fashion jewellery retailer following the release of the company’s FY25 results. Despite missing on NPAT, the new financial year has started very strong for Lovisa with global comparable sales up 5.6%.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Ooh Media (ASX:OML) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.68 to the range of $1.84 to $1.88 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

As August reporting season draws to a close, we saw plenty of big results move the markets this week. Supermarket giant Woolworths (ASX:WOW) tumbled over 10% on weak profit and margin pressure, facing pressure from its major competitor Coles. In contrast, Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) impressed with its first post-merger results, Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) delivered record revenue, and Qantas (ASX:QAN) soared on robust travel demand. Looking ahead to FY26, cost control, consumer shifts, and sector tailwinds are expected to drive momentum, with opportunities emerging across growth-focused mid-caps.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:15): an overview of the results over this reporting season
• (0:40): why Woolworth’s shares are tumbling  
• (1:40): a dive into Sigma Healthcare, Eagers Automative and Qantas’ results
• (4:50): key themes heading into FY26
• (5:34): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:00): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (7:29): economic news items to look out for next week.

Overnight, the S&P500 advanced at the same magnitude as it slipped the day before. Industrials led among large cap segments, gaining momentum while at the other end of the leaderboard, staples declined the most. All US equity benchmarks closed in the green, with the Dow Jones also gaining more than 140 points or 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.2%. US investors weighed the latest quarterly earnings results from Nvidia. In extended trading, Nvidia’s share price fell almost 3%, despite its results beating expectations, which has seen the S&P futures move lower as the company makes up approximately 8% of the S&P500. And as we near the end of the month, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are each up more than 2%, while Dow is up more than 3% this month. 

European markets closed mixed overnight. The German DAX down 0.44% and the FTSE100 down 0.11%. While France’s CAC was up 0.44% and the STOXX600 closed just 0.1% higher. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 advanced 0.28% with materials and healthcare stocks in the lead, while consumer staples and technology declined the most. 

 What to watch today: 

• Following the rally on Wall Street overnight, the SPI futures are suggesting that our local market will open only slightly higher this morning, with a 0.03% gain. 
• And while we’re nearing the end of reporting season, a long list of companies are due to release their earnings results today. The most watched will likely be Qantas today (ASX:QAN) with the major airline set the release its results this morning and gold a press conference at 9am. Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) will also be reporting today, the conglomerate that owns Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart and others. And other share prices to watch will be Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC), and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) just to name a few. 
• And companies going ex-dividend today include Beach Energy (ASX:BPT), Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR), REA Group (ASX:REA) and Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS). Remember this often sees share prices fall as investors take their profits. 
• In commodities,
   
  • Crude oil has gained 0.78% to US$63.74 per barrel recovering from a more than 2% drop, after US government data pointed to stronger-than-expected inventory declines. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, more than markets had anticipated. So watch energy producers today. 
  • The price of gold is higher just 0.08% to US$3,396.35 an ounce, hovering at a two-week high amid concerns over the Fed’s independence as President Trump signalled a legal fight after seeking to remove Governor Lisa Cook over alleged misconduct.
  • And iron ore is in the green higher at US$101.59, so watch iron ore miners today.

 Trading ideas:

• Following the release of Woolworth’s (ASX:WOW) results yesterday, Bell Potter maintain their Hold rating on the supermarket giant but have lowered their price target to $29.80, as the company reported NPAT outlook changes, down 2% in FY26 and down 8% in FY27. At the current share price of $28.51, this implies 4.5% share price growth in a year. 
• And Bell Potter maintains their buy rating on WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC), although FY25 revenue came in below Bell Potter’s expectations and missed their guidance range. They have lowered their price target by 6% to $127.50. At WTC’s current share price of $102.02, this implies 25% share price growth in a year. 

As reporting season enters its final week, we’ve seen 174 companies release their results, with 19% beating expectations. With more companies downgraded than upgraded by brokers, the importance of meeting valuations and maintaining solid outlook remains clear for investors. Some of the key themes looking ahead towards FY26 include the housing crisis driving tailwinds in for property developers, strengthening balance sheets from asset sales, and the challenges for expansion strategies into the US. 

In this week’s video, Grady covers:

• (0:53) Cedar Woods Properties (ASX:CWP): property market tailwinds and strong pipeline drove solid results
• (2:51) Coles Group (ASX:COL): reported slightly ahead of expectations in their supermarket division
• (4:15) Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV): fell over 1% on weakness in its retail segment and modest forecasts
• (5:27) Aussie Broadband (ASX:ABB): surged 20% on strong FY25 results and positive forecast
• (6:27) Reece Plumbing (ASX:RCE): fell 16% after reporting decline in sales and EBIT.