Between the Bells

Wall Street started the new trading week with some fresh records as big names like Nvidia boosted investor optimism about the future of AI. The S&P500 rose 0.44% to hit a fresh record high at the close while the Nasdaq jumped 0.7% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.14%. Nvidia shares rose 3.9% on Monday after announcing a partnership with OpenAI through the investment of $100bn to build out data centres. 

Across European markets overnight it was mostly a sea of red as investors continue to assess President Trump’s visa crackdown. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.48%, the French CAC fell 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.11%.

Across Asia markets on Monday, markets closed mixed as investors in the region also responded to Trump’s hefty H-1B visa fees. Indian tech stocks fell overnight 3% in response to the newly imposed visa fees, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.99%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.76%, and South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.68%.

Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.43% gain amid a boost in commodity prices driving a rally for materials stocks, especially in the form of gold after the price of the precious metal hit yet another fresh recover overnight over US$3700/ounce.

Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) shares plunged 26% on Tuesday after the company warned that the Federal Government’s 4.7% funding increase for aged care was below expectations and won’t cover rising staff costs, creating a funding gap. As a result, Regis downgraded its earnings outlook, guiding to only modest EBITDA growth (3–7%) for FY2025, disappointing investors and sparking a sharp sell-off on Monday.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.13% lower at US$62.32/barrel, gold is up a further 1.71% to a fresh record US$3747/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.05% at US$105.49/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.02 US cents, 97.50 Japanese yen, 47.06 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.19% tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Generation Development (ASX:GDG) with a buy and a 12-month price target of $8.20. Generation Development Group (GDG) is a financial services company that offers a range of tax-effective investment solutions, annuities, managed accounts and research services. The analyst sees GDG as a Buy due to its transformative earnings growth, strategic acquisitions, strong managed accounts positioning, supportive regulatory tailwinds, and a major vote of confidence from BlackRock, all pointing to a long runway for scalable, high-margin growth.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Acrow (ASX:ACF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 337-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.06 to the range of $1.30 to $1.36 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday and for the week as investors welcomed the Fed’s rate cut decision on Thursday last week. The Nasdaq rose 0.72%, the S&P500 rallied 0.5% and the Dow Jones gained 0.37% to hit a fresh record at the close. For the week, the Nasdaq added 2.2% while the Dow and S&P500 gained 1% and 1.2% respectively.

Apple shares led the gains on Friday with a 3.2% spike after the company’s latest iPhone went on sale.

In Europe on Friday markets closed lower as investors focused on trade and the state of the European economy. The STOXX600 fell 0.04%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.15%, the French CAC declined just 0.01%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.12%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed lower after the Bank of Japan held rates steady amid concerns of external volatility impacting Japan’s inflation journey. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed flat, India’s Nifty 50 declined 0.55%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.57%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a positive end to the week amid fresh records on Wall St on Thursday and a healthcare rally locally fuelling a 0.3% gain at the closing bell.

For the week, the key index lost 1.03% as a sharp sell off in energy stocks weighed down the key index.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) did much of the heavy lifting in the healthcare sector on Friday with a 7.5% rally after Citi initiated coverage of the commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with a buy rating, indicating its prostate cancer drug candidate has the potential to become a ‘blockbuster drug’.

Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) also benefited from Citi’s expanded coverage with a rally of 5.5% after Citi named PME among its favourite stock picks for the healthcare sector.

What to watch today:

• Gold miners locally extended their run on Friday as the recent gold spot price rally continued with the price of gold topping US$3659 on Friday. Northern Star Resources added 0.9% on Friday while Evolution Mining ended the day up 1.52%.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.34% lower at US$62.72/barrel, gold is up 1.12% at US$3684.75/ounce and iron ore is up 0.2% at US$105.44/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback to buy 65.96 U.S. cents, 97.63 Japanese yen, 48.85 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.27% tracking Wall Street’s gains on Friday.

 Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Orica (ASX:ORI) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $23.00 as the analyst sees Orica is well-positioned for strong near-term earnings growth across its diversified segments, driven by high-margin products, favourable pricing, and operational improvements. Additionally, the company is on track for de-leveraging and increasing shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on ResMed (ASX:RMD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $41.21 to the range of $45.30 to $46.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

This edition of the weekly wrap brings you a special insights package direct from the Resources Rising Stars conference. Over two days, we caught up with some of the industry’s mining magnates and emerging leaders to discuss the outlook for gold, copper, uranium, and lithium, along with company updates from the helm.

You can view highlights from the conference in this week’s video. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (1:11): Tim Goyder on Minerals 260’s gold strategy
• (3:01): Bill Beament on Develop Global’s copper outlook
• (4:49): new gold explorers Arika Resources & Gorilla Gold
• (6:38): Firefly Metals’ copper-gold project and share price rally
• (7:32): FY26 commodity outlooks: gold, copper, uranium, lithium
• (8:12): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (9:04): the most traded stocks and ETFs by Bell Direct clients this week
• (9:36): key economic data to watch next week.

The big news out of the US overnight was confirmation that the Fed would deliver its widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his press conference said the move should be considered a “risk management cut”, in response to the weakening job market, and growing inflationary pressures.
 
In response to the cut, Wall Street saw a volatile trading session close mixed overnight. The Dow Jones soared 0.57%, boosted by stocks which benefit from the rate cut, such as Walmart, JP Morgan and American Express.
 
On the other end, the S&P 500 closed down 0.1%, and the NASDAQ saw a 0.33% decline as investors took profits from the high flying tech stocks, with big names like Nvidia, Oracle and Palantir all slipping.
 
Europe also saw a mixed session overnight - the FTSE and German DAX both saw gains overnight, closing 0.14 and 0.13% higher respectively. Meanwhile, the French CAC declined 0.4%, and the Stoxx600 closed slightly down 0.03%
 
It was a tough day locally as the ASX 200 closed down 0.67%, with 8 of the 11 key sectors in the red.  The real estate and consumer discretionary sectors were hit the hardest, which can likely be attributed to the fact that these are the most sensitive sectors to interest rate cuts, and so investors were bailing out prior to the fed announcement.  

What to watch today:

• Looking forward to today, the SPI futures suggest the ASX will continue its slide, opening down 0.17% for the trading session. 
• In commodities, Crude Oil is trading 0.85% lower at 63 US dollars and 97 cents per barrel. Similarly, gold is trading 0.86% lower at 3659.
• US dollars and 87 cents per ounce, and Iron Ore is trading 0.11% lower at 105 US dollars and 30 cents per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained its buy recommendation for cardiac therapy producers EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) with a target price of $2.25 per share, as they recently cleared the final hurdle towards a successful commercial launch of their cardiac rhythm disease treatment WiSE. 
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Steadfast Group (ASX:SDF), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $6.07 per share to the range of $5.56-$5.66 per share over a period of 9 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

The US overnight saw a decline with all 3 of the major indexes closing in the red, as investors take some profits ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated rate decision. The S&P500 closed down 0.13%, the Nasdaq fell 0.07% and the Dow Jones saw the biggest decline, ending the day down 0.27%

Across European markets overnight it was a sea of red with the STOXX 600 falling 1.2%, while Germany’s DAX tumbled 1.8%, the French CAC fell 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.88%. 

Asian markets closed Tuesday’s session higher as progress on trade talks between China and the US continued to boost investor sentiment for a second session in the region. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.3% to top 45,000 index points for the first time ever, while South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1.24% to also reset its record high, India’s Nifty 50 also gained 0.68% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day flat. 

The local market started the new trading week lower before recovering ground to close 0.28% higher on Tuesday as a surge in energy and discretionary stocks offset weakness among healthcare stocks. 

Investors welcomed comments out of the RBA on Tuesday signalling Australia’s central bank has nearly achieved its inflation goal, successfully bringing inflation close to target while maintaining low unemployment and easing cost-of-living pressures, with wages now outpacing prices.

Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) fell 4.3% on Tuesday after the managing director and CEO was let go over a personal event.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning: 
  • Oil is trading 1.92% higher at US$64.52/barrel
  • Gold is up 0.3% at US$3689/ounce 
  • Iron ore is up 0.1% at US$105.42/tonne
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.45% tracking Wall Street’s sell-off on Tuesday.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter have maintained their buy rating on gold miner Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK), and increased their 12-month target price to $1.45 per share off the back of its recently completed merger with Canadian listed gold producer Mandalay Resources. At it current share price  of around $1 per share, this implies a 45% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Universal Store Holdings (ASX:UNI), indicating that the share price may rise from the close of $8.50 per share to the range of $11.20 to $11.80 per share over a period of 229 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Positive trade talks between China and the U.S. boosted investor sentiment on Wall Street on Monday, leading to a positive finish across the major averages. The S&P500 climbed 0.5% to a fresh record high over 6000 points for the first time while the Nasdaq added 0.9% to also hit a fresh record close and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.1%. U.S. and Chinese officials met for a second day with progress on the trade front said to be moving well on top of talks around the sale of Chinese owned social media company, TikTok.

In Europe overnight markets closed mostly higher as investors welcome trade negotiation progress between the U.S. and China. The STOXX600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX added 0.2%, the French CAC climbed 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.1%.

Across the Asia region on Monday markets closed mixed with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 0.23%, while China’s CSI index gained 0.24%, South Korea’s Kospi index rose to a fresh record high with a gain of 0.35%, and Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

Locally on Monday the ASX200 posted a 0.13% loss to start the new trading week lower.

The losses extended from last week as investors overlooked the widely expected US rate cut announcement next week and instead sold out of healthcare and gold mining stocks to start the new trading week lower.

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday were led by Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), CSL (ASX:CSL) and Westpac (ASX:WBC).

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.2% higher at US$63.31/barrel, gold is up a further 1.07% at US$3681/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.11% lower at US$105.31/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.73 U.S. cents, 98.32 Japanese yen, 49.04 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up almost half a %.

Trading ideas:

• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Adairs (ASX:ADH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 12-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.62 to the range of $3.15-$3.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 7-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.10 to the range of $8.30 to $8.45 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday as investors remain optimistic of a rate cut out of the Fed this week after core US inflation remained steady at 3.1% in August. The Nasdaq had a perfect week, notching another record close on Friday by ending the day up 0.44% while the S&P500 hovered flat most of the day before settling up just 0.05%, and the Dow jones ended the day down 0.59%.

The S&P 500 gained 1.6% for the week, marking its strongest weekly showing since early August and its fifth advance in the past six weeks. The Nasdaq notched a second straight week of gains with a 2% rise, while the Dow climbed 1% for the week, breaking a two-week losing streak.

In Europe on Friday markets closed flat as fresh economic data out of the UK showed economic growth stalled in July. The STOXX600 closed the session flat, Germany’s DAX lost just 0.02%, the French CAC added just 0.02%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.15%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mostly higher tracking Wall Street gains on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.14%, China’s CSI index fell 0.57%, and India’s Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.43%. Alibaba shares soared over 7% on Friday after the company initiated moves to secure its place in China’s AI boom.

What to watch today:

• Locally to end the last trading week the ASX200 posted a 0.68% rise on Friday as a materials led rally boosted the key index to a strong finish on Friday.
• Gold stocks were a key standout over the last trading week as the price of the precious commodity soared to fresh record highs throughout the week, topping US$3674/ounce. Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) soared 6.4% on Friday while Ramelius Resources (ASXRMS) added 2.8% and Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) ended the day up over 7%.
• The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday were led by healthcare companies in 4D Medical (ASX:4DX), CSL (ASX:CSL) and Pro Medicus (ASX:PME).
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.43% higher at US$62.56/barrel, gold is up 0.3% at US$3642.37/ounce and iron ore is up 0.24% at US$105.43/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 66.52 US cents, 98.19 Japanese yen, 48.96 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading week down 0.67%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) from $5.30 to $5.45 and maintain a buy rating on the almond producer following a rebound in almond pricing, with a rally of prices up around 26% from the bottom to now sit around US$3.11/pound.
• And Bell Potter has also increased the 12-month price target on Jumbo Interactive (ASX:JIN) from $11.20 to $11.50 and maintain a hold rating on the e-commerce digital lotteries business following the company announcing it has entered into a long-term software licence agreement with RSL Queensland to power RSL Queensland’s flagship Dream Home Art Union lottery program.

With the ASX200 recovering some of September's lost ground this trading week, this week's wrap collates the key insights from Bell Potter's analysts that joined us this week for our webinar, Managing Market Volatility, where we unpacked the key highlights and lowlights of reporting season, discussed tactics to navigate volatility and provided outlook for FY26. You can view some of the highlights in this week’s video, and below is the link to the full recording of the webinar in case you missed it live. 

Webinar link - Managing Market Volatility with Grady Wulff, Chris Savage, Rob Crookston and John Hester: https://youtu.be/vSm9tnwr0-I 

In this weekly wrap Grady covers: 

• (0:30): how the ASX recovered some ground this trading week 
• (1:30): Rob Crookston's outlook for FY26 & key reporting season findings 
• (3:24): Chris Savage's analysis & tech valuations of FY25 reporting season
• (4:48): Chris’ outlook for tech and two smaller names to watch in FY26
• (5:44): John Hester’s findings from the healthcare sector this reporting season
• (6:52): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:51): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (8:22): economic calendar news items to look out for next week – China and US in focus.

In the US, Wall St saw a mixed trading session overnight. The S&P500 and NASDAQ both closed at fresh record highs, with a 0.3% gain for the former and a 0.03% gain for the latter.  In contrast, the Dow Jones saw a decline of 0.48%, largely bogged down by a tough day for Apple shares as the new iPhone announcement failed to impress investors.

Europe also saw a mixed session. The Stoxx600 edged slightly down 0.02%, the FTSE ended down 0.19%, the DAX saw the biggest decline, ending down 0.36%, while the French CAC actually advanced 0.15%.

Locally yesterday the ASX200 advanced 0.31%, with 9 of the 11 key sectors closing in the green. The market was weighed down by a tough day for material stocks, which fell 1.7% off the back of news that Chinese lithium mining giant CATL will resume operations in its Jianxi mine earlier than expected, causing Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) to tank 18% each.

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures indicate the ASX200 will open the trading session down 0.23%. 
• In commodities, Crude Oil saw a 1.65% price jump to 63 US dollars and 66 cents overnight as Poland downed drones in its airspace, and the US pushed for new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, sparking worries about possible supply disruptions. 
• Meanwhile, gold prices continue to increase, trading up 0.43% to 3642 US dollars and 90 cents per ounce, while iron ore is trading down 0.26% to 105 US dollars and 80 cents per tonne. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained their buy rating on agricultural chemicals supplier Nufarm (ASX:NUF) off the back of solid earnings season results. With a target price of $3.55 per share, this implies a 44% increase over 12 months from the current share prices of $2.28. 
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL), indicating that the stock price may fall from the closing price of $22.20 per share to the range of $20-20.40 over a period of 17 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

The three major averages on Wall St rose to record territory on Tuesday as investors looked past current concerns over the US economic stability and bought into market opportunities. The Dow Jones rose added 0.43%, the S&P500 climbed 0.27% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.37%. Revisions to payrolls data of late has been the key catalyst spooking investors with the latest revision by the labour department coming in at a reduction of 911,000 for the 12-months to March this year signalling weakness in the US labour stability.

 In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly higher with the STOXX600 rising 0.09%, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.37%, the French CAC added 0.23% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.23%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed with Japan’s Nikkei falling 0.42% while South Korea’s Kospi index gained 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.19% and China’s CSI index fell 0.7%.

The local market sell-off to start September has extended into the new trading week with the key index ending Tuesday’s session down 0.52% as investor sentiment has been hit lately by further tariff, US economic and rate outlook uncertainty.

Westpac consumer confidence data for September and NAB business confidence data for August were also both released yesterday with declines in both readings more than economists were expecting amid uncertainty on an economic level.

Energy stocks continued their slide this week following OPEC+’s weekend decision to increase production of oil starting in October.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) gained over 2% after reaching a deal with the US Food and Drug Administration to file a revised application for its brain cancer imaging agent, incorporating further clinical data. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.71% higher at US$62.71/barrel, gold is up 0.12% at US$3640/ounce and iron ore is up 0.42% at US$104.93/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.84 US cents, 97.06 Japanese Yen, 48.62 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.05%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from $7.65 to $9.35 and maintain a sell rating on the leading rare earths producer following the company highlighting its ‘Towards 2030 strategy’. The analyst sees LYC is priced for perfection, with little room for error, highlighting FY25 had higher depreciation which drove a miss on results, however, does recognise that the current themes pushing LYC higher are likely to persist as tailwinds over the short term.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Breville Group (ASX:BRG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 33-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $30.89 to the range of $25 - $26.25 according to standard principles of technical analysis.