Between the Bells

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors assessed Trump’s latest moves and await key earnings results out of Nvidia. The S&P500 rose 0.41%, the Dow Jones gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.44%.

In Europe overnight, markets closed lower as global investors assessed Trump’s latest moves in attempt to intervene with the running of the US Federal Reserve. The STOXX 600 lost 0.83%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.4%, the French CAC declined over 2% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly fell as investors in the region also weighed Trump’s latest moves both on the Fed and tariff fronts. Trump reportedly warned of ‘200% tariffs or something’ on China if it does not export rare-earth magnets to the U.S. China’s CSI index fell 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.18%, Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.97% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.95%.

The Australian share market dropped 0.41% on Tuesday, following global weakness after Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs over digital services taxes and called for the removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook.

We are at the tail end of reporting season now with a few key themes emerging as we head into FY26 including cost management being the key to margin maintenance, the foundations are set for a stronger FY26 through headwinds easing and dividends signalling stability heading into the new financial year.

Yesterday, Coles Group (ASX:COL) reported a solid FY25 that beat expectations with strong outlook for FY26 which sent the share price of Australia’s major supermarket giant up over 8.5%.

Web Travel (ASX:WEB) tumbled over 7.5% on Tuesday after providing a trading update that signalled softer-than-expected results in the first half despite strong FX tailwinds experienced in the half.

And mining giant Fortescue (ASX:FMG) tumbled over 2% after FY25 results reflected the weaker iron ore market during the last financial year including NPAT falling over 40% and the company slashed its dividend to the lowest level in 7-years.

What to watch today: 

• Gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.32% lower at US$63.30/barrel, gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.96 US cents, 95.72 Japanese Yen, 48.45 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.53%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) from $5.50 to $5.90 and maintain a buy rating on the full-service funeral provider following the release of the company’s FY25 results including revenue growth of 7.9% and average revenue per funeral rising 1.3%. The company has also had a very strong start to the new financial year which has driven the price target increase.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Collins Food Group (ASX:CKF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 46-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $9.76 to the range of $12.10 to $12.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Major averages closed in the red on Wall Street overnight to start their trading week. The Dow Jones declined 0.77%, the S&P500 fell 0.43% and the Nasdaq down 0.22%. US investors awaiting Nvidia’s earnings and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge in the coming days.

European markets were mostly lower. The German DAX down 0.37%, France’s CAC declined further down 1.56%, after the country’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced he will be seeking a confidence vote in parliament next month over the government’s budget plans. The FTSE100 however closed in the green up just 0.13%, while the STOXX600 was lower, down 0.44%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 edged slightly higher at the close, ending the session with a 0.06% gain, as materials and energy stocks lead the market higher.

What to watch today:

• Following US equities overnight, the Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting at 0.21% drop at the open this morning.
• In economic news, the latest RBA meeting minutes will be released today, providing further insight into when the RBA slashed its cash rate by 25bps to 3.6% at its August meeting, matching market expectations and bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since April 2023.
• And as we near the end of reporting season, we still have a number of companies reporting their earnings results. Keep watch of the share price movements of Coles (ASX:COL), Fortescue (ASX:FMG), G8 Education (ASX:G8E) and Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO), just to name a few.
• In commodities:
  • Crude oil has advanced again, up 1.7% to US$64.74 per barrel the highest in nearly three weeks, extending a four-day rally as traders weighed geopolitical risks and monetary policy signals.
  • Gold is 0.2% lower at US$3,365.02 an ounce following a more than 1% gain in the previous session, as the US dollar attempted to recover after a dovish shift by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • And iron ore is in the green at US$101.60 per tonne, rebounding from last week’s losses.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Accent Group (ASX:AX1) and have lowered their price target to $1.80. At the current share price of $1.49, this implies 20.8% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Westpac (ASX:WBC) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $38.29.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday after Fed chair Jerome Powell signalled the U.S. central bank could be easing monetary policy as soon as next month, during his speech at the Jackson hole symposium for 2025. The Dow Jones rose to a record high at the closing bell on Friday with a gain of 1.9% while the Nasdaq and S&P500 gained 1.88% and 1.52% respectively on Friday. During Powell’s speech he said “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” which investors welcomed on Friday.
 In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as investors digested the U.S. EU trade deal and hold higher hopes of a rate cut out of the U.S. in September. The STOXX 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.3%, the French CAC climbed 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day at another record high, up 0.13%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mostly higher led by China’s CSI index rallying over 2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.32%, Japan’s Nikkei closed flat as inflation in the region cooled to 3.1% in July, and South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 0.86%.

Locally to end last week the ASX200 posted a 0.57% loss as healthcare and staples stocks weighed on the key index.

On the reporting season calendar on Friday, it was a mixed session as investors reacted sharply to key results. Zip Co (ASX:Z1P) soared almost 20% after posting FY25 results whereby cash EBITDA soared 147% to $170.3m, operating margin rose to 15.8%, TTV increased 30.3% to $13.1bn and total income climbed 23.5% on FY24 to $1.081bn. Net bad debts also fell from 1.7% of TTV in FY24 to 1.5% of TTV in FY25 and active customers rose 4.6% to 6.3 million. Zip also excited the market announcing it is considering dual listing on the Nasdaq to support the company’s significant US growth.

Accent Group (ASX:AX1) on the other hand dived over 15% on Friday after the footwear and clothing retail parent company reported sales growth of just 1.5% in FY25 to $1.5bn and net profit tumbled amid widespread promotional activity required to reduce inventory levels.

And Mexican fast food outlet Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) tanked over 23% to a record low after FY25 results came in well below market expectations and investors grew increasingly concerned about the company’s FY26 outlook. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.4% higher at US$63.77/barrel, gold is up 0.95% at US$3371/ounce and iron ore is down 0.15% at US$101.42/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.95 U.S. cents, 95.38 Japanese yen, 48 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up a sharp 0.94%

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Monash IVF (ASX:MVF) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $1.15 to 77cps following the release of the company’s latest update including 2H25 revenue declining over 6% HoH and ARS down over 12%. Market stimulated cycles fell 0.7bp to 21% due to a reduction of cycles by over 5% which is significantly more than the only slight decline in industry growth.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 44-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $$7.75 to the range of $5.80 to $6.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

With 90 companies reporting so far, standout results came from Goodman Group’s (ASX:GMG) datacentre expansion, Bega Cheese’s (ASX:BGA) strong turnaround, and Northern Star’s (ASX:NST) record gold profits, while The a2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) delivered steady growth. Investors are continuing to rewarding cost control, resilient dividends, and clear guidance, with FY26 shaping up to be stronger across most sectors.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:16): an overview of reporting season so far at the end of week 3
• (0:40): Goodman Group’s results with profit doubling from datacentre expansion
• (2:06): a dive into Bega Cheese’s results driven by branded volume growth
• (3:40): why investors are cautious on the a2 Milk Company outlook
• (4:44): Northern Star’s record-breaking year and what’s ahead
• (6:32): key themes emerging to consider from this reporting season
• (7:17): how the local market performed over the last trading week
• (7:56): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (8:28): economic news items to look out for next week.

US equity markets pulled back following the latest Federal Reserve FOMC minutes release. The minutes were as expected, with the Fed focused on inflation numbers rather than jobs data which is what the market and investors have been watching closely lately.

 While the Dow closed 0.4% higher, the S&P500 closed a 4-day loosing streak, down 0.24%. And a tech sell off saw the Nasdaq was down 0.67% in the red. We also saw a meaningful drop in bond yields overnight. 

 European markets were mixed overnight, the STOXX600 gained 0.23%, German DAX down  0.6%, France’s CAC down just 0.08% while the FTSE100 advanced 1.08%.

European defence stocks extended losses as the market regained optimism for an Ukraine ceasefire.Locally yesterday, the ASX200 gained 0.25% with consumer discretionary, real estate and financials in the lead. 

What to watch today:

• The Australian market is set for a positive start to the day. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.26% rise at the open this morning.
• Supporting the market today will be a lift in energy prices as we saw in the US overnight. Looking at commodities:
   
  • Crude oil advanced 1.84% to US$62.94 per barrel, after a weekly report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 6 million-barrel decline in US crude inventories, providing modest support to prices. 
  • The price of gold gained 1% to trade at US$3,350.27 an ounce,after the FOMC minutes supported expectations of a September rate cut in the US and a softer US dollar, which boosted global demand.
  • Iron ore is slightly higher at US$101.52 per tonne, following reports that China will curb steel production.
• Locally, investors will be watching earnings from Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC), Bega Cheese (SSX:BGA), Brambles (ASX:BXB), and Goodman Group (ASX:GMG).
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.64.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) and maintain a 12-month price target of $3.55. At the current share price of $3.01, this implies 17.9% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in NextGen Energy (ASX:NXG) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $10.08 to the range of $8.50 to $8.80 over 51 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

This week’s reporting season results show just how much investor reactions hinge on outlook. Despite earnings misses from major names, markets rewarded stronger forward guidance while punishing weakness. Emerging themes include cost management pressures, regional slowdowns, and the value of diversified earnings heading into FY26.

In this weeks video, Grady covers:

• BHP Group (ASX:BHP): rose 0.68% despite a 26% drop in profit to US$10.2bn, with investors backing improved cost guidance and copper strength
• CSL (ASX:CSL): fell 17% despite solid profit and revenue results, after announcing major restructures including cutting 3000 jobs
• James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX): slumped nearly 30% after Q1 net income plunged 60% to US$62.6m and sales fell 9% to US$900m
• Key takeaways from week three of reporting season across the market.

Wall Street closed Tuesday’s session mixed as a tech decline weighed on key market indices. The S&P500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq lost 1.5% and the Dow Jones ended the day up just 0.02%. Investors have been pulling out of Nvidia in recent days with shares in the mega cap ending Tuesday’s session down 3.5% as traders take a breath from the recent AI rally in favour of undervalued small to mid-cap stocks in the current market environment.

In Europe overnight markets closed higher as investors welcomed peace talks progress initiated by President Trump with Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The STOXX600 rose 0.7%, Germany’s DAX added 0.45%, the French CAC gained 1.21% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.34% to a fresh record high.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed lower as investors await the outcome of Trump’s talks with Russia and Ukraine. Japan’ Nikkei fell 0.38% a day after closing at a record high, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed flat, China’s CSI index lost 0.38% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.81%.

Locally yesterday the ASX200 fell 0.7% as market heavyweight CSL (ASX:CSL) tumbled almost 17% in its worst day ever after announcing weaker results than expected and reporting it will be cutting up to 3000 jobs.

BHP (ASX:BHP) also had results out yesterday that were weak on China’s subdued demand but shares still rose on optimistic outlook.

Westpac consumer confidence data out yesterday shows Aussies are regaining confidence as we enter the rate cut part of the rate cycle. The reading for August showed a MoM increase to 5.7% in August from 0.6% in July, signalling the strongest level since 2022.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.32% lower at US$62.58/barrel, gold is down 0.5% at US$3316/ounce and iron ore is down 0.05% at US$101.57/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.59 US cents, 95.28 Japanese Yen, 46.45 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.2%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on CSL (ASX:CSL) from a buy to a hold and have significantly lowered the 12-month price target on the healthcare giant from $305 to $240 following the release of FY25 results, unveiling CSL's key division Behring disappointed with just 1% revenue growth, while Seqirus and Vifor exceeded expectations. Despite this, the market reacted sharply, and Bell Potter’s analyst see a challenging near-term outlook due to earnings growth missing expectations, weak 2H25 Behring performance, delayed margin recovery (now expected by FY29), and uncertainty around FY27/28 forecasts for the demerged entity.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.28 to the range of $1.13 to $1.17 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities closed flat as investors await the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole summit, a three-day annual international conference attended by central bank leaders, as well as the release of retail earnings. The Dow Jones closed 0.08% lower, the S&P500 was flat, just 0.01% in the red and the Nasdaq closed 0.03% in the green. 

European markets were mixed amid discussions between Ukraine and the US. The STOXX60 gained 0.08%, the German DAX down 0.18%, France’s CAC down 0.5% and the FTSE100 up 0.21%. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 advanced 0.23% with communication services and technology in the lead, while materials and energy declined the most. 

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting at the Australian market will decline 0.26% at the open this morning, following a flat session on Wall Street overnight. 
• BHP Group (ASX:BHP) released it’s full year results this morning. The mining giant posted its smallest annual underlying profit in 5 years, as iron ore prices remained under pressure due to oversupply concerns and slowing China demand. They reported an underlying attributed profit of $10.16 billion for the year ending June 30, below expectations. 
• Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) also released results this morning, reporting at 14% rise in annual earnings, driven by strong performance at its blood plasma business. The company also announced a $750 million buyback in fiscal year 2026. 
• In economic data, Westpac’s consumer confidence data and consumer inflation expectations will be released today. 
• Looking at commodities, 
  • Crude oil has rebounded 0.9% to US$63.36 per barrel, following the inconclusive US-Russia summit in Alaska on Friday. Markets are watching the potential impact of the talks on global oil supply, including possible changes to sanctions or progress toward reconciliation.
  • The price of gold has steadied, trading at US$3,331.93 an ounce. 
  • And iron ore is in the green at US$101.62. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating on Comet Ridge (ASX:COI), an energy exploration and development company focused on coal and gas. Their valuation is $0.21 and at the current price of $0.14, this implies 56% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Imdex (ASX:IMD) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $3.40 to the range of $2.75 to $2.85 over 20 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

US equities closed the trading week on Friday mixed. The S&P500 posted its second weekly gain but closed 0.29% lower on Friday. The Dow gained just 0.08%, while the tech heavy Nasdaq declined 0.4% as investors took gains from what was a strong trading week.

European markets were in the red ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine, which saw the STOXX600 close flat.

Locally on Friday, the market rallied, closing with a gain of 0.73%. Energy and materials were in the lead along with 9 of the 11 industry sectors in the green. Technology and consumer staples were the worst performers, posting small declines at Friday’s close.

What to watch today:

• Following mixed trading on Wall Street, the Australian market is set to open lower this morning. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.6% fall at the open.
• In commodities
  • Crude oil has fallen almost 1.3% to US$63.14 per barrel, as traders awaited the outcome of talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with hopes for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine affecting market sentiment.
  • The gold price is flat at US$3,335.60 an ounce, as hotter-than-expected US data tempered hopes for a large Fed rate cut.
  • And iron ore is down 0.24% at US$101.59 per barrel so keep watch of iron ore mining stocks today.
• And as we reach mid reporting season, a long list of companies a reporting their earnings result today. These include the A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M), Ampol (ASX:ALD), BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL), Lendlease Group (ASX:LLC), NAB (ASX:NAB), New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC), oOh! Media (ASX:OML) and Seek (ASX:SEK).
• In economic data today, at 11:30am AEST consumer inflation expectations for August will be released.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy recommendation on Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) and have reduced their 12-month valuation from $1.05 to 1.15. They say LTR’s 100% owned Kathleen Valley lithium project remains highly strategic in terms of scale, long project life and location in a tier-one mining jurisdiction. At LTR’s current share price or $0.85, this implies 36% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Adairs (ASX:ADH) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $2.24 to the range of $2.34 - $2.38 over 34 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street saw a positive trading session with all three major US benchmarks closing in the green. The Dow gained 400 points for a second session, up 1.04%. The S&P500 reached another record high and closed 0.32% higher, while the tech- heavy Nasdaq gained 0.14%.

European markets also extended gains after Wall Street’s record highs, expectations for lower U.S. Federal Reserve rates continue driving the major indexes to all-time highs. The STOXX600 advanced 0.54%.

Locally yesterday the Australian market closed down 0.6%, dragged down by utilities and financials, while materials and healthcare were in the lead. Today’s session however, is looking more positive.

What to watch today:

The SPI futures are suggesting our local market will rise 0.35% at the open this morning.

Also on watch today are the companies reporting their earnings results. So far this morning at the time of recording, the highlights are:

• Westpac (ASX:WBC) posted $1.9 billion third quarter profit,
• Suncorp (ASX:SUN) jumped 52% to $1.8 billion,
• And Telstra (ASX:TLS) profit grew 31% to $2.34 billion, and the company declared a 19cps payout.

And keep watch of the share price movements for other companies reporting, including the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX:ASX), Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) and Pro Medicus (ASX:PME). In commodities,

• crude oil has called 0.64% to US$62.74 per barrel, the lowest in over two months, after the International Energy Agency forecast a growing oil surplus this year and next.
• The price of gold is up 0.3% to US$3,357.68 an ounce as investors weighed the federal reserve rate outlook following the latest CPI data announcement. July’s headline inflation came in at 2.7%, below the 2.8% forecast, while core inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%.
• Seaborne iron ore is down 0.37% to US$102.03, while futures hold near two week highs, on expectations of further steel production cuts in China.

And in economic data today, the unemployment rate for July will be out at 11:30am AEST.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Life360 (ASX:360) after the company reported 2Q2025 revenue of US$115.4 million, 6% ahead of Bell Potter’s forecast of US$109.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$20.3 million, 59% above their forecast of US$12.8 million. Bell Potter have increased their 12 month price target by 27% to $47.50, and at the current share price of $40.77, this implies 16.5% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) indicating that the stock price may fall from the range of $297.15, to the range of $271 - $276 over 28 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.