Between the Bells

Wall Street closed higher with the S&P500 posting its 5th straight record close as investors digested a strong start to earnings season in the US and trade developments in the form of a landmark trade agreement with Japan. The S&P500 rose 0.4% on Friday to post its 14th record close of the year, the Nasdaq added 0.24% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.47%. Both Alphabet and Verizon rallied last week on the back of better-than-expected earnings results with rallies of 4% and 5% respectively over the last trading week.

In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly lower following Trump’s remarks saying there is a ’50-50’ chance of a deal being done with the EU before his self-imposed August 1 deadline. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.3%, the French CAC added 0.2% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.2%.

Across the APAC region on Friday markets closed mostly lower as investors assessed recent trade developments. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.09%, India’s Nifty 50 declined 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi Index bucked the trend to close 0.18% higher.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.5% loss on Friday as a sharp sell-off in materials, financials and healthcare stocks offset strength among energy and tech stocks. For the week, Australia’s key index lost 1.03%.

The banks extended their sell-off on Friday as investors continued profit taking from the sector that ran the hottest over the last financial year. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell over 5% over the last trading week while NAB (ASX:NAB)declined over 4%, Westpac (ASX:WBC) fell over 3% and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 1%.

Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) shares jumped over 9% on Friday after the specialist alternative investment manager reported a 7% rise in funds under management for the June quarter with net inflows at around $600m for the quarter.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.45% lower at US$65.07/barrel, gold is down 0.93% at US$3336.98/ounce and iron ore is down 0.03% at US$98.55/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.75 US cents, 97.09 Japanese Yen, 48.79 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.06%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the coal miner from $7.10 to $6.90 following the release of Q4 results out of the company. FY25 guidance was met, Group production and sales met the upper half of the guidance range and unaudited unit costs, and capex were below guidance. The company increased debt though following the first payment for the BMA acquisition and Narrabri undertook an 8-week longwall maintenance period during FY25 which is expected to be overcome in FY26. The move to a hold rating is due to recent share price appreciation.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Gentrack (ASX:GTK) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 67-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.72 to the range of $7.90 to $8.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

As July wraps up, all eyes turn to August reporting season, where investors are bracing for modest earnings growth and heightened volatility. Banks, staples and tech stocks face valuation pressure, while retailers and miners contend with weaker demand and rising costs. Expect capital management, cost control and forward guidance to separate the standouts from the strugglers.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:11): the pivot away from the financial sector
• (1:38): a dive into the technology, retail, healthcare and materials sectors
• (3:21): key risks to watch out for this reporting season
• (4:12): how the market performed this week so far
• (4:47): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:14): economic news items to look out for.

To start, we wanted to let you know that for a limited time only, you can earn 4.75% p.a. on new ‘ready to invest’ Bell Direct accounts. Visit the Bell Direct website to find out more. Well, as investors await the impending tariff deadline, the US has finalised an agreement with Japan, including reciprocal tariffs of 15%  on the nations exports to the US. All three US benchmarks rallied, with the Dow Jones jumping 500 points or 1.14%, the S&P500 up 0.78% and the Nasdaq up 0.61%. US - EU trade deal investor optimism also saw US equities advance. 

The German DAX up 0.83%, France’s CAC up 1.37%, the FTSE100 up 0.42% and the STOXX600 up 1.08%. Our local market also advanced yesterday with 10 of the 11 industry sectors closing in the green. Materials, energy and financials were in the lead, bringing the ASX200 0.69% higher at the close.

What to watch today:

• Following global markets rallying overnight, the Aussie market is set to rise 0.26% at the open this morning, according to the SPI futures.
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil is up 0.2% trading at US$65.43 per barrel, marking the fourth straight day of losses. 
  • The safe haven gold price saw a 1.3% decline overnight, now sitting at US$3,386.86 an ounce, pulling back slightly from a five-week high, pressured by a wave of trade deals that dampened the metal's safe-haven appeal.
  • And iron ore is trading 0.3% higher at US$98.11 per barrel.
  • In economic news, this morning we’ll receive the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services flash PMI, a forward looking estimate of the final producers managers index out next week.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Buy rating on Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) and have downgraded their 12- month price target from $9.20 to $8.70 as FY26 production guidance lower than what was modelled for by Bell Potter, based off a ramp to follow processing capacity in mid FY26 and as higher costs see an EBITA decline. At the current share price of $7.25, the target price implies 20% share price growth in a year.
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in NRW Holdings (ASX:NHW) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.22 to the range of $4.05 - $4.20 over 49 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Tuesday with the S&P500 resetting its record high as the major average rose 0.06%, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%. Investors continued shifting focus from trade war developments to robust earnings results.

In Europe overnight markets closed lower for a third day as investors digested earnings results from some of the largest companies in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany’s DAX lost 1.2%, the French CAC declined 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed again with Japan’s Nikkei falling 0.11%, while China’s CSI index added 0.82%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.54% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 1.27%. Shares in SoftBank group surged 6% after reports emerged that the Japanese investment firm is set to build a small data centre by the end of the year.

Locally on Tuesday, the ASX 200 started the day with a strong rally before easing in afternoon trade to end the session up just 0.1% after the latest RBA meeting minutes were released outlining the cautious approach to rate cuts taken by the RBA as they want to see the quarterly inflation reading before making any moves, especially amid the volatility of tariffs.

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) soared almost 8% on Tuesday in its biggest one-day rise in 15-weeks on the rallying gold spot price and after the Supreme Court of WA approved the company’s $2.4bn acquisition of Spartan Resources.

Investors continued selling out of the big banks again yesterday amid stretched valuations. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell 3.1%, while NAB (ASX:NAB), Westpac (ASX:WBC) and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 2.7%, 1.3% and 0.8% respectively.

 Most traded securities:

• The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients yesterday were led by 
  • BHP (ASX:BHP)
  • Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX:VAS)
  • CSL (ASX:CSL)

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.78% lower at US$65.44/barrel, gold is up 0.87% at US$3425/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.64% at US$97.84/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.57 U.S. cents, 96.13 Japanese yen, 48.29 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.45% tracking wall street’s majority rally overnight.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Frontier Digital Ventures (ASX:FDV) to $0.63 from $0.54 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the online marketplace focused investment company. The analyst sees there are multiple potential catalysts for a potential share price re-rating including improving macro backdrop for emerging market investment, positive growth forecasts for FDV, and potential portfolio monetisation/price discovery events to unlock shareholder value.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) following the formation of a pattern over the period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $3.67 to the range of $3.89 to $3.95 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed with records across 2 of the 3 major averages on Monday as optimism around earnings overshadowed investor fears of the latest tariff developments. The S&P500 rose 0.14% to close over 6300 for the first time, the Nasdaq added 0.38% to also post a record close and the Dow jones ended the day down just 0.04%. This second quarter earnings season has started very strong in the U.S. with Verizon shares popping 4% yesterday following a Q2 earnings beat while Alphabet added over 2% ahead of its earnings out after the closing bell on Wednesday.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed to start the new trading week amid tariff uncertainty. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany’s DAX closed flat, the French CAC fell 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.2%. Ryan Air shares rose 6% on Monday after the airline posted a 128% rise in Q1 profit which topped market expectations.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as China held its key 1 and 5 year loan prime rates steady despite the struggling economic recovery in the region. China’s CSI index rose 0.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.57%, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.21% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.71%.

 Locally to start the new trading week, investors were in profit taking mode after the key index reset its record high to end the last trading week, leading to a 1.02% decline at the closing bell on Monday. Stocks that have run hot over the last 12-months like the big banks and some gold stocks came under pressure yesterday. Energy and Materials stocks were the only sectors to finish the day in the green while financials stocks took the biggest hit to start the new week 2.26% lower.

Block Inc (ASX:XYZ) soared over 11% yesterday on news the company is entering the S&P500 from this Wednesday after Chevron acquired Hess Corp which left room for Block to enter the major US index. AMP (ASX:AMP) also jumped 9.3% after the company released a strong Q2 update including superannuation positive net inflows for the first time since 2017.

Most traded securities:

• The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by:
  • DroneShield (ASX:DRO) 
  • BHP (ASX:BHP)
  • Mesoblast (ASX:MSB)

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.56% lower at US$66.97/barrel, gold is up 1.4% at US$3397/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 65.24 U.S. cents, 96.17 Japanese yen, 48.54 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.13% tracking the record closes on Wall Street overnight.

 Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Perenti (ASX:PRN) from a buy to a hold and have maintained the 12-month price target on the materials company at $1.80 following the company’s issue of an updated noting that FY25 free cash flow is likely to be $280m vs the previous guidance of greater than $150m. The downgrade to a hold is on the back of recent share price appreciation.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 156 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $6.42 to the range of $8.20 to $8.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday following reports President Trump pushed for greater tariffs on the European region. The Dow jones fell 0.32% on Friday, the S&P500 lost just 0.01% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.05%. Reports suggest Trump is demanding a minimum tariff between 15-20% from the EU ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. also out on Friday though suggests confidence levels are up 1.8% in the latest reading, indicating tariff-induced inflation fears are easing. We have started receiving first half earnings results in the U.S. and Netflix shares fell 5% on Friday after the streaming giant reported its operating margin will be lower in the second half of this FY.

Across the European region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested the latest tariff threats on the region. Germany’s DAX fell 0.33%, the French CAC rose 0.01% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.22%.

The Asia region also ended Friday’s session mixed with China’s CSI index rising 0.6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.33%, South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.13%, and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day down 0.21%.

The ASX200 posted a 2.1% gain for the week in its best week since May and ended the week with a fresh record high driven by market heavyweights like CSL (ASX:CSL) and BHP (ASX:BHP) jumping over 3% each. Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) rocketed over 34% on Friday after reporting strong early sales of Ryoncil in the first few months of its availability on market.

Virgin Australia (ASX:VGN) also gained almost 2% after UBS initiated coverage of the airline with a buy rating.

Most traded securities:

• The most traded investments by our clients on Friday were led by 
  • Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)
  • BHP (ASX:BHP)
  • ANZ (ASX:ANZ) 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.36% lower at US$67.30/barrel, gold is up 0.32% at US$3349/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.18 US cents, 96.43 Japanese yen, 48.52 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.56%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) from $3.40 to $3.50 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the pharmaceutical company following the release of the company’s latest cashflow update including US$13.2m in gross sales from Ryoncil for the period of 28 March to 30 June 2025. The major catalysts include revenue expansion from Ryoncil and the unrecognised value of a likely Accelerated Approval for Revascor in late-stage heart failure in CY26.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on CSL (ASX:CSL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 53-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $257.38 to the range of $268 to $272 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Defence spending surged to a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, with NATO and Indo-Pacific nations ramping up budgets amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Bell Potter sees strong growth ahead, with opportunities in direct plays like DroneShield (ASX:DRO) and broader exposure through ETFs like DFND and ARMR. While the sector has rallied, tailwinds remain - but investors should be mindful of risks like policy shifts and supply chain pressures.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:
• (0:14): factors behind the defence sector surge
• (2:16): risks facing the sector
• (2:50): opportunities for exposure in defence
• (4:26): how the market performed this week so far
• (5:28): the most traded stocks and ETFs by clients this week
• (5:54): economic news items to look out for.

US equities were higher on Wall Street overnight of the back of news headlines that President Donald Trump has denies firing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman, which initially sent the S&P500 index lower. The three major benchmarks rallied at the close. The Dow Jones added 200 points or 0.53%, the S&P500 gained 0.32% while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0.25%.

European markets were all in the red. The German DAX down 0.2%, France’s CAC down 0.57%, the FTSE100 down 0.13% and the STAXX600 down 0.57%.

Locally yesterday on the ASX200, information technology and energy sectors were the only two to close in the green. Tech posted most of the market gains, closing 0.85% higher, while the ASX200 was down 0.79% at the close.

What to watch today: 

• Our local market is set to rebound today. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.62% rise at the open this morning.
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil is 0.2% in the green, trading at US$66.66 per barrel at the time of recoding, following three straight days of losses, amid the concerns over the impact of the US trade tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand.
  • The price of gold is up 0.75% to US$3,349.73 an ounce, following a two-day decline, as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments.
  • And iron ore is up 0.58% to US$97.06 per tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Speculative Buy rating on NexGen Energy (ASX:NXG), a Canadian focused Uranium explorer and developer. Bell Potter have reduced their valuation to $13.55 from $16.90. They expect NXG will trade in-line with the uranium spot price, given the leverage to volume linked (spot priced) contracts. The current share price is $10.24, therefore implying 32% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $177.57 to the range of $162 to $165 over 8 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed mixed amid concerns over inflation after the latest data out for June overnight revealed US inflation increased from May with CPI rising 0.3% MoM to an annual rate of 2.7% while core inflation rose 0.2% MoM or 2.9% on an annual basis. The Dow Jones fell 0.98%, the Nasdaq gained 0.18% and the S&P500 ended the day down 0.4%.

In Europe overnight markets closed lower for a third straight session amid caution over a trade deal yet to be done with the US ahead of the tariff introduction date on August 1. The STOXX 600 fell 0.37%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.42%, the French CAC fell 0.54% and, over in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.66%.

Locally to start the new trading week the ASX200 closed lower on Monday before a strong rebound on Tuesday where the key index gained 0.7% to reset its record high at the closing bell. A broad tech rally was the key driver of the market’s surge yesterday while investors also shrugged off the latest US Trump tariff threats.

Westpac consumer confidence data for July came out yesterday showing consumer confidence jumped 0.6% in July to 93.1 points despite the RBA rate hold as investors still expect a number of rate cuts this year.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Wednesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.73%.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.54% lower at 66 US dollars and 16 cents a barrel, gold is down 0.35% at 3331 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is up 0.05% at 96.76 US dollars a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded Technology One (ASX:TNE) from a hold to a sell and have slightly raised the 12-month price target on the company to $35.75 following recent share price appreciation. The sell rating is not due to a negative catalyst, but the market already expecting the company to beat expectations, so we don’t see a positive catalyst as there is not much upside risk to our and the market’s FY25 forecast.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on SRG Global (ASX:SRG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 14-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.69 to the range of $1.87 to $1.91 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher to start the new trading week in the green despite President Trump’s latest tariff threats over the weekend. The S&P500 rose 0.14%, the Nasdaq added 0.27% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.2%. Investors will gauge the first hit of tariffs on the region’s inflation this week when the latest U.S. inflation reading is out.

In Europe overnight markets closed mostly lower despite the UK finishing at a record high. The STOXX 600 fell just 0.06%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.39%, the French CAC fell 0.27%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64% to a fresh record high.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as bitcoin hit a fresh record high while cautious investors assessed the latest Trump tariff threats. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.26%, China’s CSI index ended flat, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up by 0.83%.

The latest slew of China’s economic data is out this week and yesterday we had the first glimpse with coal imports falling to the lowest level in more than 2-years in June amid weak demand and higher domestic production. China’s steel exports on the other hand leapt to a record in Q2 reaching 30.7 million tonnes, up 11% from last year. The surge defied expectations, driven by strong demand and despite trade restrictions across Asia and Europe. The first-half total also rose by 9%. China’s trade balance for June showed exports jumped 5.8% which topped expectations and showed a 1% increase MoM while imports rose 1.1%, below expectations but above the -3.4% reported a month prior, leading to the trade surplus rising to $114bn which also topped expectations.

Another round of tariffs, another spike in investor uncertainty sparking a flee to safe-haven investments across the broad market yesterday. The ASX200 posted a 0.11% loss to start the new trading week lower after see-sawing all-day. Energy and materials stocks closed with gains over 0.5% while industrials and discretionary stocks were the hardest hit to start the new trading week.

Gold miners were all the rage for investors to start the new week amid heightened volatility brought on by renewed tariff uncertainty. Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) rose 1.72%, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) added 1.88% and Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) ended the day up 3.4%.

Counter drone technology company DroneShield (ASX:DRO) soared another 15% yesterday after the company reported the expansion of its R&D capabilities including a $13m initial investment to lease and fit out a brand new 3000 sqm production facility in Alexandria.

 Most traded securities:

• The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by 
  • BHP (ASX:BHP)
  • DroneShield (ASX:DR)
  • Andean Silver (ASX:ASL)
  • Betashares Global Defence ETF (ASX:ARMR)

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.28% lower at US$66.89/barrel, gold is down 0.4% at US$3343/ounce and iron ore is up 0.05% at US$96.76/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.47 U.S. cents, 96.75 Japanese yen, 48.55 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.64%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) from $6.50 to $9.20 and maintain a buy rating on the uranium producer ahead of some catalysts coming up including the outlook for a re-rate on the company over the coming quarters with predicted fresh ore processing outperforming the stockpile issues which plagued FY25.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly t