Between the Bells

Wall Street closed lower on Friday after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada and threatened higher tariffs across the board. The S&P500 retreated 0.33% a day after posting a fresh record high, the Nasdaq lost 0.22% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.63%.In Europe on Friday, markets closed lower as investors awaited the highly anticipated tariff letter to arrive from President Trump outlining the damage of tariffs set to come. The STOXX 600 lost 1.1%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.9% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.4%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, it was a mixed session after President Trump announced a blanket 15% or 20% tariff on most trade partners. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.75%, China’s CSI index rose 0.12%, Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.19% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.23%.

Locally to end the last trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.11% loss as every sector aside from materials stocks ended the day in the red. For the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.27% loss as strong declines among REIT and tech stocks offset strength among utilities and materials stocks.

Rare earths producers locally surged on Friday after the US Department of Defence agreed to take a 15% stake in MP Materials, a US-based rare earths producer. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) rose over 16% on Friday while Arafura Rare Earths (ASX:ARU) added 5.56%.

Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG) soared over 21% on Friday after announcing it has agreed to a $1bn takeover offer from Pacific Equity Partners, an Australian-based private markets fund manager.

Most traded securities:

• The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday were led by
  • CSL (ASX:CSL)
  • Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU)
  • NAB (ASX:NAB)
• And the most traded ETFs were led by
  • Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX:VAS)
  • Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX:NDQ)
  • Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF (ASX:VGS)

What to wach today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.27% higher at US$68.75/barrel, gold is up 0.92% at US$3354.76/ounce and iron ore is down 0.05% at US$96.71/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.64 U.S. cents, 96.60 Japanese yen, 45.91* British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of the first trading session of the new week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.15% tracking the global market turbulence overnight.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Kinatico (ASX:KYP) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of 30cps. The company is a leading provider of ‘know your people’ solutions to organisations across Australia and NZ with a legacy business – CVCheck – which provides employment screening to over 10,000 repeat corporate customers. Bell Potter’s analyst sees the buy rating is supported by upcoming catalysts including FY25 results, positive outlook statements and the successful launch of ComplianceX this quarter with strong initial take-up of the solution.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Tasmea (ASX:TEA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.37 to the range of $2.65 to $2.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

The RBA held rates steady this week, surprising markets but aligning with its wait-and-see approach ahead of upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile globally, Trump confirmed tariffs will rise from August 1, sparking volatility across the markets. On one hand, copper jumped on news of a 50% US import tariff, with traders rushing to reroute shipments. However, the prospect of a 200% tariff on imported drugs has rattled healthcare producers, with CSL advocating for targeted measures over blanket tariffs to avoid disrupting global supply chains.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:10): the RBA’s shock rate hold and future outlook
• (1:13): Trump’s August 1 tariff date and how the market reacted
• (2:02): the impact of fresh tariff threats on the copper and healthcare sectors
• (4:38): how the market performed this week so far
• (5:20): the best and worst performing stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:48): economic news items to look out for.

Wall Street recovered to close higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged off the latest tariff noise to buy into tech and other growth market areas again. The Nasdaq rose 0.94% boosted by Nvidia shares climbing 1.8%, the S&P500 added 0.61%, and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.5%. On Wednesday, Trump sent a further 6 letters to countries outlining new tariffs on imports of goods bound for the U.S.

In Europe overnight, markets closed at a four-week high boosted by the banks as investors await progress on trade talks between the U.S. and the EU. The STOXX600 rose 0.78%, Germany’s DAX added 1.42%, the French CAC climbed 1.44%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.15%.

Across the Asia markets on Wednesday, it was a mixed session after President Trump ruled out any extension to the tariff deadline of August 1. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.06%, China’s CSI index lost 0.18% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day flat.

The Australian share market dropped 0.61% on Wednesday following US President Donald Trump's escalation of his protectionist trade war, as he reiterated threats to impose higher tariffs on copper imports.

Lifestyle Communities (ASX:LIC) saw a dramatic drop of over 40% following a landmark tribunal ruling that deemed its profitable deferred management fees, or exit fees, imposed on residents to be invalid under state tenancy laws.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) surged 6% following the announcement that its prostate cancer imaging product, Gozellix, has been assigned a permanent code by the US Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services, effective October 1.

Most traded securities:

• Most traded stocks and ETFs of the day yesterday by our clients were led by
  • BHP (ASX:BHP)
  • Ampol (ASX:ALD)
  • Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX:GOLD)

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.21% higher at US$68.32/barrel, gold is up 0.36% at US$3313.36/ounce and iron ore is up 0.35% at US$95.55/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.34 U.S. cents, 95.61 Japanese yen, 48.05 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.5%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Lifestyle Communities (ASX:LIC) from $8.55 to $5.00 and maintain a hold rating on the company following the receipt of judgement from ongoing VCAT proceedings relating chiefly to its use of a deferred managed fee structure.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Data3 (ASX:DTL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 182 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.79 to the range of $9.80 to $10.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed the latest comments out of President Trump on the tariff front whereby he said there will be no exceptions to his August 1 tariff start date. The S&P500 lost just 0.07%, the Dow Jones dipped 0.37% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.03%.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed higher as investors hope trade deals can be done between the US and key European countries in the near future. The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, and Germany’s DAX, the French CAC and the UK’s FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.5% each.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, it was positive despite investors assessing President Trumps’ latest tariff threats on 14 key trading partners. Imports from Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia among other countries are now set to face tariffs of 25% starting August 1 according to Trump’s latest post on his social platform, Truth Social. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.26% on Tuesday, South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 1.81%, China’s CSI index rose 0.84% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.09%.

The local market closed Tuesday’s session flat as investors were shocked by the RBA’s surprise rate hold announcement whereby Australia’s cash rate will remain at 3.85% for the next period amid global uncertainty on the tariff front and Australia’s tight labour market. RBA governor Michele Bullock said Australia’s central bank is really conscious of not wanting to end up with a fight against inflation again and they want to make sure they have ‘nailed’ inflation before cutting again.

Following the RBA’s shock rate hold on Tuesday afternoon, the ASX dipped but recovered just before the closing bell with staples and utilities stocks taking the biggest hit, while tech and communication services offset some of the losses.

Some broker moves sparked stock reactions yesterday with South32 (ASX:S32) sliding almost 2% after Goldman Sachs cut its outlook on the company to Neutral while Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) rallied over 2% after UBS upgraded the stock to a buy, and Guzman Y Gomez (ASX:GYG) fell 4% after JPMorgan initiated coverage on the stock on Monday with an underweight rating.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.7% higher at US$68.40/barrel, gold is down 0.92% at US$3306/ounce and iron ore is up 0.35% at US$95.55/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.31 US cents, 95.77 Japanese Yen, 48.12 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• And ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.08%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Cobram Estate Olives (ASX:CBO) from $1.95 to $2.35 and maintain a hold rating on the olive oil producer following the company’s provision of a FY25 production and earnings guidance update. CBO expects production to come in below BPe but EBITDA expectations of $115m top BPe of $113m.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Lycopodium (ASX:LYL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 99-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $11.29 to the range of $12.50 to $12.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower to start the new week as President Trump reportedly posted letters to countries indicating new tariff terms and amounts that will come into play once the July 9 waiver deadline ends. The Dow Jones fell 0.94% on Monday, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.92%.

Imports from at least 7 countries will face hefty tariffs from August 1 according to Trump’s latest posts on his social platform, Truth social.

In Europe overnight, markets mostly rose before Trump’s latest tariff updates were revealed. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX added 1.1%, the French CAC climbed 0.4%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down just 0.2%.

Across the Asia region overnight, markets closed mixed as Trump’s tariff deadline day tomorrow looms and on the back of Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs will commence from August 1. China’s CSI index fell 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.61%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.56%, and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.17%.

Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 slipped into the red to post a 0.16% loss following the record close on Friday as investors await the RBA’s rate announcement today and ahead of Trump’s tariff waiver deadline tomorrow.

Investors are increasingly on edge ahead of Trump’s tariff waiver deadline ending on Wednesday 9th July as widespread concerns revolve around trade deals not being done thus leading to hefty tariffs disrupting trade moving forward. The local market is following the trends of global markets from late last week as investor optimism fades ahead of Wednesday’s tariff deadline. Given the key index is trading around record territory of late, investors are also likely awaiting the RBA’s rate decision today before making any big moves.

Ahead of the RBA’s anticipated rate cut out today, investors also took profits from the banks as banks tend to perform worse in a lower interest rate environment.

Investors and the market are factoring in a 97% chance of a rate cut out of the RBA today to the effect of a 25-basis point cut. Should the RBA announce a cut we will likely see the tech, REIT and discretionary sectors continue to rally as such sectors tend to outperform in a lower interest rate environment.

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) tumbled 6% on Monday after the gold miner announced its production showed output at the lower end of guidance, while Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) rose over 5% on reports that UK start-up Octopus Energy, which Origin has a 23% stake in, is planning to demerge its tech division.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.36% higher at US$68.02/barrel, gold is up 0.03% at US$3336.19/ounce and iron ore is down 1.06% at US$95.22/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.89 US cents, 94.77 Japanese yen, 47.76 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.55%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Titomic (ASX:TTT) with a speculative buy rating and a 12-month price target of $0.50/share. Titomic is an Australian company at the forefront of industrial-scale metal additive manufacturing and Bell Potter’s analyst sees the increasing spend in defence, especially to come in the US, as a growth opportunity for Titomic.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $11.55 to the range of $12.00 to $12.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St was closed for the July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.

Over in Europe on Friday markets closed mostly lower ahead of Trump’s looming tariff deadline day. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.6%, the French CAC fell 0.8%, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day flat.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets similarly closed mostly lower as investors fear the end of the tariff waiver deadline will mean tariffs will be imposed immediately with a high effect. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.64%, Japan’s Nikkei closed flat, China’s CSI index rose 0.36% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down almost 2%.

Locally on Friday and to end the first trading week of July, the ASX200 posted a 0.1% gain, resetting its record for a second time already this financial year and for the last trading week the index rose 1.04%.

Following a stellar year for financial stocks in FY25, we have seen valuations stretched above growth outlook which prompted investors to take some profits and diversify into areas of the market that either have a high growth outlook like the AI movement in tech or that have been sold off sharply in FY25 presenting strong buy opportunities at present. CBA (ASX:CBA) shares fell almost 1% on Friday.

Shares in small-cap container operator Silk Logistics (ASX:SLH) jumped 22.4% after receiving approval from the competition regulator for its acquisition by Dubai-based DP World.

The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.63 US cents, 94.77 Japanese yen, 48 British pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.56% lower at US$66.46/barrel, gold is up 0.3% at US$3335/ounce and iron ore is up 1.17% at US$96.24/tonne.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day flat.
• And now let’s dive into some trading ideas for your consideration today.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the leading imaging healthcare tech company to $320/share following the company announcing the renewal and extension of its contract with Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System in Louisiana and announced a second and larger deal with U. Colorado Health.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AMP (ASX:AMP) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 88-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.43 to the range of $1.66 to $1.72 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

FY25 ended with the ASX200 up 10%, driven by gains in tech, financials and discretionary stocks. Meanwhile, materials and energy lagged amid tariffs, China’s slow recovery, and global tensions. Looking to FY26, rate cuts, easing trade risks and sector catalysts could support further growth. Bell Potter sees opportunities in healthcare, uranium, and select defensives and REITs poised to benefit from lower rates and shifting investor sentiment.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:42): winning and losing sectors in FY25 
• (2:35): Bell Potter’s outlook for FY26 and sectors to watch
• (4:27): how the market performed this week so far
• (5:08): the best and worst performing stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:036): economic news items to look out for.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Wednesday after President Trump announced a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal has been reached to the effect of 20% tariffs on goods imported from Vietnam into the U.S. Investors welcomed the news despite fresh economic data also out yesterday showing private payrolls in the U.S. surprisingly declined in June. The S&P500 ended the day up 0.47% to a fresh record high of 6227.42 points while the Dow Jones fell just 0.02% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.94%.
 In Europe on Wednesday, markets in the region closed mostly higher despite volatility in the UK. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX added 0.5%, the French CAC climbed 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.1%.

Across the Asia region on Wednesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments around further rate cuts would have already happened if it weren’t for President Trump’s tariff initiatives. China’s CSI index closed flat, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.73%, Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day down 0.47%.

The local market reset its record yesterday with the key index ending the day up 0.66% with 10 of the 11 sectors ending the day higher led by materials stocks rallying 1.83%.

Retail sales data out yesterday locally for May came in at a rise of 0.2% MoM which fell short of the 0.4% rise markets were expecting, signalling consumer discretionary spend remains subdued due to higher cost-of-living pressures and overall uncertainty. Much to the listed retailer relief though, retail spend in May was boosted by a bounce-back in clothing purchases, albeit at a time when a large number of retailers held higher promotional activity to reduce inventory levels. Other than clothing spend rebounding, retail spending was otherwise restrained this month, with a drop in food-related spending and flat results across household goods.

Qantas (ASX:QAN) shares tumbled 2.2% after the flying kangaroo confirmed it has been hit by a cyber attack affecting the personal data of more than 6 million customers.

Lenders Mortgage Insurance provider Helia Group (ASX:HLI) sank over 20% yesterday on news that another major long-term partner in ING Bank was negotiating a deal with alternative providers. The move comes just months after CBA pulled the pin on its LMI deal with Helia.

Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) shares also fell almost 16% after the company’s CEO Mark van Dyck announced he will step down from the role after just 12 months at the helm.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.2% higher at US$67.54/barrel, gold is up 0.57% at US$3357.35/ounce and iron ore is up 1.84% at US$95.13/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.86 US cents, 94.59 Japanese yen, 48.28 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.21%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI) from $1.30 to $1.18 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the gold miner following the release of the company’s updated Pre-Feasibility Study for its 100% owned Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project in New Zealand. It is well placed to complete its Fast Track application, commence early site works in 2HCY25, make a Final Investment Decision in early CY26 and commence construction in 1HCY26. It remains one of the nearest term, new gold development projects on the ASX and is why the analyst has maintained a spec buy rating on the company.

Wall Street closed mixed to start the new quarter as investors rotated out of tech stocks to start the new quarter. The Dow Jones rose 0.91%, the S&P 500 fell 0.11% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.82%. Investors are also weighing the latest developments with President Trump’s major tax and spending bill while assessing comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell around the rate outlook in the US.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly lower as investors monitored the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Portugal. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.8%, the French CAC closed flat, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.3%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed record gains on Wall St to end June and remain concerned over the global impact of tariffs amid the looming deadline day next week. China’s CSI index rose 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was closed for a public holiday, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.24%, and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.6%.

The ASX200 started the new trading month virtually flat as investors regrouped to navigate the start of FY26 with headwinds in the form of geopolitical tensions, trade wars and elevated valuations creeping in from FY25.

Over the last 12-months financials stocks have soared over 26% led by sector heavyweight CBA (ASX:CBA) which has experienced share price appreciation of 45% as investors flocked to safe haven investments during the last 12-months of elevated volatility and uncertainty. For the same reason, gold stocks have also been on a tear over the last financial year.

Heading into the new year, the first session of FY26 was uneventful as investors still await clarity on the tariff front, particularly on the outcome of talks between the US and China. Both rate sensitive sectors in tech and real estate stocks offset weakness among industrials and materials stocks on Tuesday.

Superannuation takeover target Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL) rallied over 5% on Tuesday after final takeover bidder, CC Capital, said it would continue working toward making a binding offer for the company after months and other bidders involved in the deal.

And in the healthcare space Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) shares rose over 8.5% after the company announced progress of its treatments with the US FDA toward commercialisation, with the company intending to file by the end of the year for accelerated approval. 

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.45% higher at US$65.40/barrel, gold is up 1.04% at US$3337.65/ounce, and iron ore is down 1.12% at US$93.41/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.72 US cents, 94.51 Japanese Yen, 47.85 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.21%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Perenti (ASX:PRN) and have raised the 12-month price target to $1.80 from $1.45 following the announcement of a contract win at the Great Fingall underground project with Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) in WA worth $200m over 3-years.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Yancoal (ASX:YAL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 9-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.91 to the range of $6.70 to $6.90 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities brushed off the mid- session nerves as both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq reset the closing record highs, advancing 0.52% and 0.47% respectively, while the Dow Jones climbed 275 points or 0.63%. Gains followed the announcement that Canada revokes its digital service tax to facilitate trade negotiations with the US. And as President Donald Trump’s 90- day tariff postponement is scheduled to expire next week, investors are watching out for announcements of any trade deals between the US and its trading partners.  

European markets closed in the red. The German DAX down 0.51%, France’s CAC down 0.33%, the FTSE 100 down 0.43% and the STOXX600 down 0.42%. 

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 advanced 0.33% with healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary industry sectors in the lead. Meanwhile, materials declined the most, with Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL), Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) and Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), the worst performing stocks of the session.  

What to watch today:

• The Australian market is set to open slightly lower this morning, down just 0.07% according to the SPI futures. 
• In commodities,
   
  • Crude oil is down 0.8% and more than 5% over the week, now trading just under US$65 per barrel, amid easing tensions in the Middle East as well as prospects that OPEC+ will further increase its oil output. 
  • The safe-haven gold price is 1.1% in the green, trading at US$3,304 an ounce, after hitting an over one- month low earlier in the session as trade talks progress. 
  • And iron ore is trading flat at US$94.47 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Speculative Buy rating on WA1 Resources (ASX:WA1) and have reduced their valuation from $26.50 to $25.70. At the current share price of $15.84, this implies 63% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $7.84 to the range of $8.60 to $8.80 over 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.