Between the Bells

Escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel hit global markets on Friday.

Wall Street closed lower as investors assessed the worsening tensions in the Middle East with the S&P500 dropping1.13%, while the Dow Jones lost 1.8% and the tech heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 1.3%. Oil and defensive stocks rose on Friday amid the rising price of oil due to Middle East tensions and as investors buy into the defence sector driven by rising geopolitical tensions.

In Europe on Friday markets closed in the red after Israel launched air strikes on Iran. The STOXX 600 fell 1%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 1.1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed an announcement by Trump that a deal had been done with China to the effect of 55% on imports from China into the U.S. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.11% on Friday, China’s CSI index closed flat, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.65% and south Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.45%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 posted a 0.2% loss after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program sites in a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Luxury online fashion retailer Cettire tanked a further 20% on Friday following a 31% drop on Thursday after the company announced its second profit downgrade in less than two months, citing uncertainty around tariffs and elevated promotional activity as the drivers of the downgrades.
Gold miners jumped on Friday amid the renewed geopolitical tensions driving investor uncertainty hence leading to a flock to safe-havens, while energy stocks also soared on the 13% spike in brent oil prices amid the rising Middle East tensions.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 7.26% higher at US$72.98/barrel, gold is up 1.36% at US$3432/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$95.38/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.85 US cents, 93.59 Japanese Yen, 47.96 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.23%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Accent Group (ASX:AX1) from $2.60 to $2.10 and maintain a buy rating on the footwear and fashion retailer following the company providing a FY25 trading update last week including group like-for-like sales down 1% in 2H25 to date, and gross margins fell 80bps on the PCP.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 85-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $3.87 to the range of $4.60 to $4.75 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Markets were stirred this week by fresh data revealing the impact of US tariffs, with China’s exports to the US plunging and deflationary pressures deepening. While a trade deal appears imminent, uncertainty lingers. In the US, softer than expected inflation figures helped ease pressure on the Fed for the moment. Meanwhile, Japanese business sentiment slipped into the red, while back home CBA soared to a world-first record high, triggering scrutiny over the influence of Aussie super funds on local markets. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:10): US-China trade talk amidst the release of economic data
• (2:42): what is driving investor sentiment in the Japanese market
• (3:48): CBA’s historic surge and its ramifications on investors
• (4:35): how the market performed this week so far
• (5:25): the best and worst performing stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:55): economic news items to look out for.

Investors weighed inflation data as the consumer price index rose 0.1% in May from April, less than the 0.2% estimate from economists were expecting. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.1%, less than expected. All three major US benchmarks closed lower. The Dow Jones lost 1.1%, the S&P500 lost 0.27%, following a 3- day winning streak, while the Nasdaq closed down 0.5%.European markets were mixed as focus remains on the US - China trade discussions, which occurred this week in London. Germany’s DAX is down 0.16%, France’s CAC down 0.36%, the FTSE100 was in the green, up 0.13%, while the STOXX600 closed 0.27% lower.

Yesterday, the Australian market gained 0.06% by the close, with real estate, energy and materials sectors leading the market’s gains. On the other end, information technology was the biggest mover, declining 1.5%, so keep watch of tech stocks today, with the Nasdaq also lower overnight

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting that our local market will open 0.23% higher this morning, however the futures lost earlier gains this morning, following reports that the US are preparing to partially evacuate the Iraq embassy over regional security.
• In economic data, consumer inflation expectations will be out at 11:00am this morning.
• And in commodities:
  • Crude oil has rallied 4.9% trading at US$68.15 per barrel, after President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with China, raising hopes for stronger energy demand. The agreement includes China supplying rare earth minerals and the US easing restrictions on Chinese students, however final approval is still pending.
  • Gold has gained 1% trading at US$3,363
  • And iron ore is up 0.3% at US$95.78 per tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter have maintained their Buy rating on marketing and communications business IVE Group (ASX:IGL) and have increased their price target by 7% to $3.00 as the broker expects a positive trading update and upgrade in FY25 guidance. At the current share price of $2.66 this implies 12.8% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in ResMed (ASX:RMD) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $39.02 to the range of $44.50 to $45.75 over 36 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

 Wall St rallied on Tuesday as investors focus on the outcome of US and China trade talks which entered a second day in London. The S&P500 gained 0.55% to post a third straight winning day while the Dow Jones added 0.25% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.63%. Investors are hoping a stable deal can be done, with some officials saying the negotiations are ‘going well and they expect the talks to continue all day again’.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed as investors brace for US – China trade updates. The STOXX 600 rose 0.08%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.58%, the French CAC rose 0.17% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.24% just shy of its previous record set.
 Across the APAC region on Tuesday, markets in the region closed mixed as investors await details of the US – China trade talks. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.32%, China’s CSI index lost 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed flat and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 0.56%.

The local market started the holiday-shortened trading week with a fresh record close buoyed by strength among energy stocks amid the rising price of oil.

Progress in talks between China and the US on Monday night through a 6-hour meeting and NAB business confidence data for May out on Tuesday morning beating expectations were the key drivers of the local index posting a 0.84% gain on Tuesday. Investor sentiment is very news and noise driven right now so any positive news and outlook drives markets higher.

Yesterday, we had the release of NAB Business confidence for May released and Westpac Consumer Confidence for June released with business confidence rising 2 index points for May, well exceeding the fall to -3 index points economists were expecting, but consumer confidence rose just 0.5% which fell short of the 2.5% rise markets had expected as consumer fears remain elevated on the global trade uncertainty front.

MonashIVF (ASX:MVF) tanked over 25% yesterday after news surfaced that the company has encountered a second IVF embryo implantation incident with the wrong embryo being inserted into a patient, marking the second event of its kind to hit the headlines in a month.

Gold miners retreated on Tuesday as investor appetite for growth stocks regained momentum amid the sliding price of gold on the back of trade negotiation progress between the world’s largest economies.

What to watch today:

•  The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.19 US cents, 94.47 Japanese Yen, 48.11 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil has pulled back from yesterday’s spike to trade 0.91% lower at US$64.68/barrel, gold is down 0.1% at US$3322/ounce and iron ore is down 0.6% at US$95.62/tonne.
• Ahead of Wednesday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.28%.

 Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Catapult Group (ASX:CAT) and maintain a hold rating on the leading sports technology company following the company’s announcement of its latest acquisition of US-based Perch for an initial consideration of US$18m. The analyst sees the acquisition will provide a large cross-sell opportunity to its existing 3600 pro teams.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Yancoal (ASX:YAL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 60-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.51 to the range of $6.25 to $6.45 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Monday as investor optimism remains elevated on hopes of trade talks progress between the U.S. and China. The S&P500 rose 0.09%, the Dow Jones fell just 1.1 points and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.31%.

In Europe overnight, markets closed lower as investors awaited the outcome of talks between the U.S. and China in London. The STOXX 600 fell 0.08%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.54%, the French CAC dropped 0.17%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.06%.

Across the Asia markets on Monday, it was a sea of green as investors welcomed some favourable economic data out of China and awaited key trade talks between the world’s largest economies. Consumer price inflation fell by 0.1% YoY in May which was lower than the 0.2% economists were expecting, while producer price index fell by 3.3%.

China’s CSI index rose 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1.55%, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.92% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day up 1.63%.

The ASX was closed on Monday for the King’s Birthday public holiday.

Last week though, the ASX posted a near 1% gain for the 5-trading days to notch the first positive trading week for June and the fourth consecutive weekly gain as progress talks between Presidents Trump and Xi resumed and ended with an in-person meeting agreement.

Gold producer Ora Banda took a hit on Friday after downgrading its gold production guidance for FY25 to 5% below the low end of the initial guidance range, while also increasing the costs expected by 4% with the driver of the update being extended downtime required for the processing plant.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.06%.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.18 US cents, 94.19 Japanese yen, 47.98 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.24% higher at US$65.32/barrel, gold is up 0.42% at US$3325.58/ounce and iron ore is down 0.6% at US$95.62/tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Develop Global (ASX:DVP) from $4 to $5 and maintain a buy rating on the hybrid underground and owned-mine operator following the release of recent updates out of the company including Woodlawn’s plant commission and underground mine production ramp-up progressing ahead of Bell Potter’s expectations.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on REA Group (ASX:REA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 26-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $232.52 to the range of $219 to $223 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Nuclear energy has become one of the key beneficiaries of the AI- driven spike in electricity demand from data centers. This week we saw Uranium stocks advance following Meta’s announcement of a 20-year nuclear facility agreement. Meta’s announcement follows similar nuclear power agreements from peers Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. 

 In this week’s wrap, Grady covers: 

• (0:27): what’s driving the nuclear power surge in 2025 
• (1:52): why tech giants are creating strong tailwinds for uranium producers 
• (3:35): Bell Potter’s uranium stock picks  
• (5:15): how the market performed this week so far 
• (5:28): the best & worst performing stocks & ETFs this week 
• (6:10): the most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients 
• (6:38): economic news items to watch out for. 

US equities closed mixed overnight. The Dow Jones dropped 0.2%, ending at four day winning streak as lower than expected payroll data dragged down sentiment. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq however, both closed in the green, gaining 0.44% and 0.32% respectively.

European markets were all in the green with the STOXX600 up 0.47%.

Our local market rallied yesterday as the energy sector lead the market with strong gains. Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) and Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) were among the top performers.

Uranium stocks jumped at the open following news that one of the world’s biggest technology companies had stepped up demand for nuclear power.

The rise came after Meta overnight signed a 20-year contract to buy 1,121 megawatts from Constellation’s nuclear plant, with power supply beginning in 2027. This follows similar deals struck by peers Microsoft, Amazon, and Google parent Alphabet. Nuclear power has emerged as one of the biggest winners from the AI-fuelled surge in electricity needed for data centres. New nuclear reactors are an important source of uranium demand growth. This follows Microsoft’s recent deal to fulfil all AI power needs from a US Nuclear power plant.

Also yesterday, the GSP growth rate was released. GDP grew at 0.2% in the March quarter following a 0.6% expansion in the prior quarter. Markets were expecting a 0.4% rise so the data out today indicating stalled growth.

What to watch today:

• The Australian market is set to open slightly in the red. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.1% drop at the open this morning.
• And in commodities,
  • Crude oil has dropped more than 1% and is trading at US$62.69 per barrel as Saudi Arabia signalled it may push for a large production increase, raising fears of a global oil oversupply.
  • The price of gold has rebounded, advancing 0.6% trading at US$3,373.44 an ounce, and approaching a one-month high, as a series of weak US economic reports renewed concerns over the outlook.
  • And iron ore has jumped more than 1% trading at US$96.26 per tonne. The price is still hovering around eight- month lows as weak economic data from China clouded the metal's demand outlook.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain their Buy rating on Elders (ASX:ELD), a leading supplier to fertiliser, agricultural chemicals and animal health products. Their 12- month price target is unchanged at $9.10, and at ELD’s current share price of $6.15, this implies 48% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in ResMed (ASX:RMD) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $38.33 to the range of $40.60 - $41.20 over 10 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St tor on Tuesday as investors anticipate details on potential US trade deals will come to light very soon. AI stocks lead the gains with Nvidia up more than 3% at the sessions’ end. The S&P500 rose 0.58% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq added 0.81% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.51%.

In Europe overnight, markets closed slightly higher after the eurozone inflation reading eased to a cooler-than-expected forecast 1.9% in May. The STOXX 600 rose 0.01%, Germany’s DAX added 0.64%, the French CAC climbed 0.33% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.13%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, the US Customs and Border Protection agency's move to extend a tariff pause on some Chinese goods boosted risk-on sentiment during Asian trading. This also helped the US dollar strengthen, recovering some of Monday’s sharp losses against major currencies. China’s CSI index rose 0.31% on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.4%, Japan’s Nikkei ended the day flat and South Korean markets were closed for polling day.

The Australian share market had its best day in a month, rising 0.6% as optimism about revived US-China trade talks boosted investor sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 gained 52.6 points to close at 8466.7, with financials leading nine of 11 sectors higher. The rally followed gains on Wall Street after news that Presidents Trump and Xi will discuss tariffs this week.

Investors bought into the banks on Tuesday due to the safe-haven nature of such investments over the last year, while Iron ore miners declined in line with a drop in iron ore futures, triggered by China's manufacturing activity hitting its lowest point in over two years. BHP (ASX:BHP) fell 0.6%, while Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) slipped 0.7%.

IDP Education (ASX:IEL) recorded the biggest loss on the market, tumbling 44.8% after warning investors that global policy uncertainty has impacted its student enrolment pipeline. The company also revealed it is conducting a review of its profitability and cost structure.

Meanwhile on a macro level, from 1st July, 2.6 million workers will benefit from a historic 3.5% minimum wage increase; the $32 weekly rise brings the national minimum wage to $24.95 per hour or approximately $948 per week. While this wage rise is one of the largest above-inflation increases ever, it is expected to have only a modest impact on inflation.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.38% higher at US$63.38/barrel, gold is down 0.9% at US$3352/ounce and iron ore is down 0.7% at US$95.30/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.67 US cents, 93.03 Japanese Yen, 47.93 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session in Australia, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.27%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) from $3.05 to $3.90 and maintain a buy rating on the real estate company following the company’s successful raising of $70m via an institutional placement with a further $4m to be raised via SPP at $2.90/unit.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Rural Funds Group (ASX:RFF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 30-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.79 to the range of $1.91 to $1.93 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week with all three major benchmarks closing in the green, despite the tensions in global trade. The Dow Jones gained 0.08%, the S&P500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.67%. 

European markets closed mixed overnight as President Trump’s 50% steel tariffs inflate EU trade tensions. The STOXX600 closed 0.14% lower, the German DAX down 0.28%, France’s CAC down 0.19%, while the FTSE 100 was slightly higher up just 0.02%. 

Locally on Monday the ASX200 posted a 0.24% loss to start the new trading month lower, as energy and utility stocks weighed on market gains, while only 3 of the 11 sectors ended the day in the green. 

 Brickworks (ASX:BKW) soared over 25% on Monday after the company announced a $14 billion merger with Washington H. Soul Pattinson (ASX:SOL), with the arrangement initially valuing BKW shares at a 10.1% premium to the previous closing price. The market’s reaction signals investors are positive about the strategic outlook for the merger and diversification the new merger offers in the building, property and diversified financials space. 

What to watch today:

• The Australian market is expected to rebound, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.82% rise at the open this morning. 
• In commodities, 
  • Crude oil has rallied 3.67%, trading at US$63.00 per barrel, following OPEC+’s announcement of a steady production increase. 
  • The price of gold is also in the green, up 2.78% to US$3,380.76 an ounce 
  • While iron ore has dropped over 3%, trading at US$95.95 per tonne, so keep watch of companies such as Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) or Fortescue (ASX:FMG). 

Trading ideas

• Bell Potter maintains its Buy rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) as the diversified food company continues to execute against its strategy to deliver FY28 EBITDA of more than $250 million. Bell Potter’s price target remains unchanged at $7.00, and at BGA’s current share price of $5.55, this implies 26% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $32.64 to the range of $26.25 to $27.50 over 29 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday but posted strong gains across the key indices for the month of May as investors shrugged off Trump’s tariff turmoil and global trade uncertainty to send equities higher for the month. The S&P500 closed flat on Friday but gained 6.2% for the month, the Dow Jones rose 0.13% on Friday and 3.9% for the month, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.32% but posted a 9.6% surge for the month of May.

On Friday a trade deal between the U.S. and UK was reached, boosting investor optimism that more deals of this kind can be done.

Across the European region on Friday, markets closed mostly higher on the UK trade deal and as investors welcomed the potential blocking of his tariffs on certain regions.

The STOXX600 rose 0.1%, Germany’s DAX added 0.3%, the French CAC fell 0.36%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mostly lower as the appeals court in the U.S. allowed majority of Trump’s tariffs to be re-instated. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.22%, China’s CSI index lost 0.48%, South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.84%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day down 1.2%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 posted a 0.3% gain despite Trump’s tariff-related volatility weighing on the key index early in the session. Investors again moved into defensive and safe-haven stocks like the banks and staples, while shifting out of riskier stocks like tech on Friday as uncertainty arose again on the tariffs front. The local market posted a second straight monthly gain for the month of May despite heightened volatility and macro uncertainty.

On Friday morning it was announced that a federal appeals court temporarily upheld many of President Trump’s tariffs on China and other countries, pausing a lower court ruling that had challenged them. This move allows the tariffs to remain in place while the court reviews the case and considers the administration's request for more time. The appeal success came not even 12-hours after a federal court announced a blockage of the tariffs amid overuse of Presidential power. This week will be an interesting time for tariffs as the appeals process unfolds, but we are no closer to clarity on exactly what tariffs are allowed to remain and the implications on our locally listed companies.

Retail sales fell by 0.1%, missing the forecasted 0.3% increase, with warmer weather contributing to reduced clothing purchases. Clothing and department store spend were the key contributors to the weaker-than-expected reading for April, while cafes and food related spend was still on the rise. Surprisingly, niche retailers like Accent Group and Universal Stores still rallied on Friday despite the retail spend figure being released.

In data out this week, Q1 2025 GDP figures are also expected to show a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024, primarily due to weaker household consumption. Markets are now factoring in a 73% chance of a rate cut out of the RBA when it next meets in July, up from the 59% chance expected prior to the retail sales data being released.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.25% lower at US$60.79/barrel, gold is 0.9% lower at US$3288.58/ounce and iron ore is down 0.15% at U.S.$99.12/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.37 U.S. cents, 92.57 Japanese yen, 47.76 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the first trading session of June up 0.09%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on IPD Group (ASX:IPG) from $4.60 to $4.10 and maintain a buy rating on the leading Australian distributor of electrical equipment and industrial digital technologies, following the company provid