Between the Bells

Wall Street closed higher on Friday as investors looked past President Trump’s latest swipe at Canada. The S&P500 rose 0.52% to close at a fresh record high while the Dow Jones added 1% and the Nasdaq ended the day up also 0.52% and also to a fresh record high. On Friday President Trump posted on truth social, his social media platform, that talks between the U.S. and Canada were being terminated. Investors remain confused about the global tariff situation amid the looming July 9 tariff delay deadline, but pushed stocks higher on Friday on reports that the U.S. is close to announcing trade deals with 10 major partners.

In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher on optimism of improving trade talks between the U.S. and China. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany’s DAX added 1.5%, the French CAC climbed 1.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed China’s May industrial output data indicating industrial profits fell 9.1% over the first 5-months of the year. China’s CSI index fell 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.17%, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.43% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.77%.

Locally on Friday the key index posted a 0.43% loss as a sharp sell-off in financials, healthcare and REIT stocks weighed on the key index. For the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.1% gain though led by financials and materials stocks posting over 1.5% gains each.

Reece (ASX:REH) tumbled over 18% on Friday after announcing its FY25 earnings were expected to fall significantly from the year prior, while Woolworths (ASX:WOW) shares fell 1% despite the supermarket giant announcing it will close its loss-making MyDeal marketplace just 3-years after purchasing it.

 What to watch today:

• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.38 U.S. cents, 94.36 Japanese yen, 47.62 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• On the commodities front this morning oil has continued to retreat, trading down 0.26% at US$65.07/barrel, uranium is up 0.7% at US$ 79.05/pound, gold is down 1.65% at US$3273.67/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.01% at US$94.49/tonne.
• Ahead of the first trading session of the new week the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.06%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) from $5.75 to $4.10 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the copper miner following key updates out of the company confirming the development plan for its 100%-owned Gonneville project near Perth. The updates give the market greater clarity on the project development milestones with the plan striking the right balance between value extraction and mining and processing routes that minimise capex.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Data3 (ASX:DTL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 59-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.51 to the range of $8.90 to $9.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Markets remained volatile this week as global indices pushed toward record highs despite geopolitical tensions and the looming end of the tariff pause on July 9. Gold briefly lost ground as ceasefire hopes between Israel and Iran settled nerves, but upside risks remain. Meanwhile, Bell Potter’s latest Analyst Outlook & Stock Picks report highlights opportunities in agriculture, tech, healthcare and gold. Discover their standouts, each backed by strong fundamentals and sector-specific tailwinds.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:12): the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions on the market
• (0:50): Bell Potter’s stock picks
• (2:54): factors behind gold’s recent performance
• (3:50): how the market performed this week so far
• (4:50): the best and worst performing stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:16): economic news items to look out for.

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as investors await clarity on ceasefire reports out of Iran and Israel. The S&P 500 was little changed, the Nasdaq added 0.31% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.25%.

Investors bought into the some of magnificent 7 overnight sending Nvidia shares up 4.3% to a fresh record high while Alphabet added 2.3%.

In Europe overnight, markets closed lower despite a strong rally for defence stocks amid uncertainty over the Middle East war. The STOXX600 fell 0.7%, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.6%, the French CAC lost 0.8%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.

Across the Asia region on Wednesday markets closed mostly higher as investors weighed up ceasefire hopes against fresh commentary out of the U.S. Fed where Powell said policymakers were "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance." Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.22% on Wednesday, China’s CSI index climbed 1.44%, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.15%.

Locally on Wednesday, the ASX200 posted a mere 0.04% gain as a more than 1% rally for financials stocks offset weakness among the materials and energy sectors.

The monthly CPI read coming in below market forecasts at a rate of 2.1% for May signals the RBA is on track to consider another rate cut in the very near future which fueled tailwinds for the REIT and Discretionary sectors today, both of which perform better in lower interest rate environments. Sentiment remains shaky though on a global scale as investors are stuck in a limbo of asking if the ceasefire is or is not going ahead in the Middle East. It is a watch-and-wait situation as it continues to unfold.

As global defence spend ramps up, DroneShield (ASX:DRO) shares are flying with the company announcing yesterday the receipt of a $61.6m for European military, marking its biggest contract in company history. Shares in the counter drone tech company soared over 20% on Wednesday following the deal announcement.

 What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.87% higher at US$64.93/barrel, uranium is up a further 0.45% at US$77.90/pound, gold is up 0.3% at US$3332.26/ounce and iron ore is down 0.12% at US$94.52/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.17 U.S. cents, 94.41 Japanese yen, 47.71 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down half a percent.

 Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on DroneShield (ASX:DRO) from $1.50 to $2.60 and maintain a buy rating on the counter-drone technology company following the announcement of the company’s record contract receipt valued at $61.6m, indicating significant earnings growth, increasing scale and frequency of contracts and industry tailwinds.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 79-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $2.67 to the range of $2.21 to $2.31 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on Tuesday as investors hold onto hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East. The Dow Jones rose 1.2%, the S&P500 added 1.11% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.43%.

While President Trump reported on Tuesday morning that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been agreed upon, reports then followed that Iran has not agreed to a ceasefire thus sparking fears of prolonged tensions. Despite this confusion, markets still rallied, and energy stocks plummeted amid the dive in the price of oil overnight.

In Europe overnight, global hopes of a ceasefire boosted markets in the region with the STOXX 600 rising 1.2% on Tuesday while Germany’s DAX added 1.6%, the French CAC rose 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat. Oil and gas stocks weighed on market gains in the region amid the tumbling price of energy commodities due to the lack of supply concerns from the Middle East that initially led to a spike when the war between Iran and Israel first broke out.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, positive global sentiment on ceasefire hopes extended into the region with markets closing higher led by South Korea’s Kospi Index rising 2.96%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.06%, China’s CSI index gained 1.2% and Japan’s Nikkei added 1.14% on Tuesday.

Ceasefire talks in the Middle East boosted global investor sentiment overnight leading to the local market rallying 0.95% on Tuesday led by materials stocks posting a near 2% gain, while the energy sector tumbled almost 4% on the sliding price of oil.

Two local IPOs had investors hitting the buy button yesterday with Greatland Gold (ASX:GGP) jumping 7.9% on debut while Virgin Australia (ASX:VAH) shares also took flight on IPO with the airline ending its re-debut session up over 8%.

KFC Australia operator Collins Food (ASX:CKF) soared 16.5% yesterday despite announcing weaker results for FY25 including NPAT down almost 15% and the full year dividend down 7%. Investors likely welcomed the strength of results in the second half of FY25 and revenue increasing over 2%.

 What to watch today 

• On the commodities front this morning oil has extended its decline to trade 5.92% lower at US$64.45/barrel, uranium is up 2.17% at US$77.55/pound, gold is down 1.51% at US$3317.46/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$94.75/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.04 US cents, 94.12 Japanese Yen, 47.86 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.06% tracking global market gains overnight.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Adairs (ASX:ADH) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $2.65 to $2.10 following the release of Adairs’ Q4 results including higher fixed costs and the company’s Focus on Furniture division down 9.3% on the PCP amid tough market headwinds.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Ampol (ASX:ALD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 33-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $25.34 to the range of $23.40-$23.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week with a surprising but welcome rally as investors welcomed the delayed reaction by Iran to the U.S. launching an attack on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. Oil prices tumbled overnight as investors now bet the impact of the Middle East war won’t be as great as was first expected on global oil supply from the region. The S&P500 rose 0.96% on Monday, the Dow Jones gained 0.89% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.94%.

In Europe overnight markets extended their losing run to close lower as investors in the region still fear retaliation from Iran may be incoming. The STOXX 600 fell 0.25% on Tuesday, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.3%, the French CAC closed 0.7% lower and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.2%.
Across the Asia markets on Monday it was a mostly negative session following the U.S. attack on Iran over the weekend sparking further concerns of escalated and prolonged tensions in the Middle East and beyond. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.67%, China’s CSI index gained 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.24%.

The ASX started the new trading week in the red with a 0.36% loss at the closing bell as investors fear Iran will respond to the US attacks over the weekend, which is the key driver of oil and uranium prices rising further overnight. The US entering the Middle East war takes the conflict from a regional to global war, spreading fear and further uncertainty among global markets and investors. Financial stocks were up due to their safe-haven nature in the local market while energy stocks are on a run amid fears of impact on global oil supply due to the Middle East war. Industrial, healthcare and staples stocks took the biggest hit on the local market to start the week with losses over and near 1% each.

Homewares retailer Adairs (ASX:ADH) followed the recent retailer trend by plunging over 20% on Monday after warning the FY25 earnings will come in below FY24’s amid elevated promotional activity eating into margins on the back of a slow down in consumer spend.

What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning oil has tumbled 8.85% to trade at US$67.49/barrel, uranium is up 1.5% at US$75.90/pound, gold is up 0.03% at US$3370/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$94.75/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.64 U.S. cents, 94.41 Japanese yen, 47.63 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesdays trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading day up 0.73%. Virgin Australia is also set to rejoin the key index today through an IPO pricing the company at $2.90/share.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Smartpay Holdings (ASX:SMP) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the full-service provider of payment solutions after the company announced it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement with Shift4Payments to be acquired at a cash price of NZ$1.20/share. The analyst believes the offer is opportunistic and undervalues the quality of the asset.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 28-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $31.41 to the range of $30.20 to $30.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street ended Friday’s session mixed as investors remained concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P500 fell 0.22%, the Dow Jones rose 0.08%, and the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.51%. Chip stocks came under pressure on Friday on reports that the U.S. may revoke some wavers placed on tariffs for chip stocks, leading to Nvidia shares dropping 1% on Friday.

In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly higher for the session but lower across markets for the week amid escalating tensions on a global geopolitical scale. The STOXX 600 rose 0.1% on Friday, Germany’s DAX added 1.21%, the French CAC rose 0.5% and, in the UK the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.2%.

Across Asia markets on Friday, it was a mixed session as investors assessed the potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East at the same time as China held rates steady despite its economy being in deflationary mode. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.26%, China’s CSI index closed flat, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.22% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 1.5%.

Locally to end the last trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.21% loss amid growing investor uncertainty on a global scale. Utilities stocks rose 0.74% on Friday while consumer staples and discretionary stocks fell 0.87% and 0.63% respectively.

Betr rose 5.3% on Friday after lobbing an all-scrip bid for PointsBet (ASX:PBH), while Bowen Coking Coal (ASX:BCB) plummeted almost 50% after announcing the weak coal markets and the ‘unsustainable’ QLD coal royalty regime could spark the company to temporarily pause operations.

What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.73% higher at US$74.04/barrel, gold is down just 0.05% at US$3367.91/ounce, uranium is up 1.47% at US$75.90/pound after the US attacked 3 nuclear sites in Iran, and iron ore is trading 0.06% higher at US$94.77/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.33 US cents, 94.35 Japanese Yen, 47.95 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.24% after the U.S. attacked Iran over the weekend, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on REA Group (ASX:REA) a buy to a hold and have slightly reduced the 12-month price target on the leading online real estate platform from $267 to $262 following soft May volumes of national listings and the outlook for eased listings into FY26.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $40.58 to the range of $36.40 to $37.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Rising Middle East tensions pushed oil prices up over 10% this week, boosting local energy stocks while leaving broader markets lacking direction. Retailers continued to struggle amid soft consumer spending and delayed rate cuts, with Cettire (ASX:CTT), Accent Group (ASX:AX1) and KMD(ASX:KMD) Brands issuing cautious updates. Iron ore miners also remain under pressure as China’s mixed recovery continues to cloud the outlook.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:27): the oil price surge and what it means for the market 
• (1:05): volatility in the retail sector
• (2:38): pressures affecting the iron industry
• (3:58): how the market performed this week so far
• (4:43): the best and worst performing stocks and ETFs this week
• (5:15): economic news items to look out for.

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy update kept the US interest rate steady with Chair Jerome Powell signalling it would wait to see the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on inflation before proceeding with rate cuts. The Dow Jones fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 slipped just 0.03% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.13%.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly lower as investors continue to monitor the latest developments in the Middle East. The STOXX 600 fell 0.34%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.4% and the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.1%.

Across the Asia region on Wednesday, markets in the region closed mixed amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9%, South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.12% and China’s CSI index ended the day up 0.12%.

The local market’s lacklustre performance this week extended into the midweek session with the key index ending the day down 0.12% as Iran-Israel attacks entered a 5th straight day and global markets were sold off on Tuesday as a result with no end-date or macro certainty in sight.

Profit taking has hit the gold stocks yesterday with investors cashing in recent gains to capitalise on the soaring gold price which topped another record just days ago.

Retailers have done it tough lately with widespread sell-offs amid elevated promotional activity leading to margin contraction as well as downgraded guidance and weaker outlook. Lovisa tumbled 5% yesterday despite no news out of the fashion jewellery retailer.

What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.4% higher at US$75.15/barrel, gold is down 0.36% at US$3375/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.16% lower at US$94.71/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.07 US cents, 94.34 Japanese Yen, 48.33 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar 8 cents.
• The SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.23% extending on yesterday’s losses.

Trading ideas

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Centuria Office REIT (ASX:COF) to a sell from a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the externally-managed REIT from $1.20 to $1.10 as the analyst feels the share price has run ahead of market conditions.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Duratec (ASX:DUR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 113-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.36 to the range of $0.95 to $1.03 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower across the major averages on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, hitting a 5th day of attacks between Iran and Israel. The Dow Jones lost 0.7%, the S&P500 fell 0.84% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.91%.

President Trump took to Truth Social, his social media platform, demanding ‘unconditional surrender’ from Iran’s leader as he departed the G7 conference early to deal with the situation in the Middle East.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region fell as the Israel-Iran conflict continues. The STOXX 600 fell 0.8%, Germany’s DAX lost 1%, the French CAC fell 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed mixed as investors assessed the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Lingering uncertainty and rising energy costs are weighing on global investor sentiment due to the conflict, at a time where volatility and uncertainty was already heightened due to US tariffs and global tensions rising on the trade front. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.6%, China’s CSI index closed flat, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.34% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.12%.

The local market started the new trading week virtually flat with a 0.01% gain on Monday before see-sawing between positive and negative on Tuesday to close down 0.08% as investors reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East and Trump urging for Tehran’s evacuation amid the Iran-Israel attacks. Volatility, rising geopolitical tensions and macro and market uncertainty have been the core drivers of market movements in recent times weighing on investor sentiment. Rate sensitive sectors posted gains yesterday with Tech and REIT stocks ending the day up 0.32% and 0.23% respectively while utilities stocks took the biggest hit with a 0.68% loss.

Gold miners regained some ground on Tuesday following Monday’s sell-off as investors fled to safe-haven assets again in the face of growing geopolitical tensions, while uranium miners extended their recent surge on nuclear power demand rising.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil continues to climb, trading up 4.6% at US$75.06/barrel, gold is up 0.2% at US$3390/ounce and iron ore is down 0.16% at US$95.23/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.70 US cents, 93.96 Japanese Yen, 47.79 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.19% tracking the global market sell off overnight.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on IVE Group (ASX:IGL) following the company’s investor strategy session where it upgraded guidance for FY25 for underlying NPAT to come in around $50m, representing a 4.7% upgrade, driven by margin expansion.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Lendlease (ASX:LLC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $5.55 to the range of $5.20 to $5.26 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities rallied overnight off the back of optimism that the Israel and Iran conflict will be contained. The Dow Jones gained 300 points or 0.75%, the S&P500 gained 0.94% and the tech- heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.52%. Following Israel’s strike on Iran on Friday, the market took comfort in the fact that this wouldn’t escalate on Monday, after Iran reportedly spoke with several countries to pressure for an immediate ceasefire.

European equities also rallied with all markets closing in the green. The German DAX and France’s CAC both up 0.8%, the FTSE100 up 0.3% and the STOXX600 index up 0.36%.Locally yesterday, the Aussie market closed flat, up just 0.01% as the energy sector rallied following the spike in oil prices amid the Israel - Iran conflict. Energy producers posted very impressive gains, including Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) advancing over 20% yesterday, Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) up more than 17%, Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) up over 15% and Santos (ASX:STO) up over 10%.

What to watch today:

• Our local market is set to open higher this morning, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.06% rise at the open this morning.
• In commodities:
  • Crude oil has eased, now trading 2.7% lower at US$71.00 per barrel, following Friday’s sharp 7% rally. This came after reports Iran sought to de-escalate tensions with Israel and resume nuclear negotiations. The decline followed an overnight surge to US$77.49 after Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s South Pars gas field and an oil depot near Tehra 
• Meanwhile, gold is trading 1.3% lower at US$3,386 an ounce and iron ore is also in the red at US$95.23 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Speculative Buy rating on clinical stage biotech company Syntara (ASX:SNT). They’ve valued the company at $0.12 and at its current share of $0.057 this implies 110.5% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Perpetual (ASX:PPT) indicating that the stock price may fall from the price of $17.96 to the range of $14.80 to $15.40 over 34 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.