Between the Bells

The ASX200 posted a 0.73% gain so far this week (Mon – Thurs), led by the technology and energy sectors amid the rising price of oil and growing investor appetite for growth stocks. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:23): the US Federal Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs 
• (2:30): Nvidia’s earnings results signaling demand for AI
• (3:18 ): Telstra’s reaffirmed FY25 guidance
• (3:58): what the latest CPI reading means for markets 
• (4:32): the best & worst performing stocks this week
• (5:20): the most traded socks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (5:49): economic news items to watch out for. 

US equities declined overnight with all three major benchmarks in the red. The Dow Jones declined 0.58%, the S&P500 down 0.56%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.51%. S&P500 futures are on the rise after Nvidia posted earnings that beat expectations, its price advancing more than 4% in after-hours trading, so this may mean good news for tech investors today. Keep watch of ASX- listed AI stocks such as WiseTech (ASX:WTC), Xero (ASX:XRO) or NextDC (ASX:NXT).

European markets were also in the red, with the STOXX 600 closing 0.61% lower.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 declined 0.13%. Financial and materials took the biggest hit, while energy and real estate were in the lead, following a rise in the consumer price index for April, which was held at 2.4% YoY. The market consensus was for it to slow to 2.3%. The RBA is looking at the data closely to ensure inflation, which is now back in the Central Bank’s target band, keeps tracking in the right direction.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.15% rise at the open this morning.
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil has advanced 1.43%, currently trading at US$61.94 per barrel, as investors await an OPEC+ meeting expected to decide on increasing oil output. They’ll likely approve a 411,000 barrel per day production hike for July, continuing a trend of accelerating supply growth following a similar increase planned for June.
  • The price of gold is down 0.73%, trading at US$3,284.88 an ounce following the Fed’s meeting minutes revealing concerns around inflation and labour market weakness.
  • While iron ore is trading steady at US$99.39 per tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter see Telstra (ASX:TLS) shares as fully valued. They have maintained a Hold trading on TLS with an improved 12- month price target of $4.65, up 7%.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $5.68 to the range of $6.90 to $7.90 over 50 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on the first trading session of the holiday shortened trading week as investors welcome the delay in tariffs on the EU announced on Monday. The Dow Jones rose 1.78%, the S&P500 climbed 2.05% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 2.47%. Tesla shares rose 7% on Tuesday after Elon Musk said he is shifting his focus away from politics and back into his companies, while AMC’s shares soared 22% after a record-breaking domestic box official over the Memorial Day long weekend that saw $326m spent at the movies over the highest holiday weekend ever.

In Europe overnight markets closed mostly higher in the wake of tariff delays on the EU region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.33%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.83% to close at a fresh record high, the French CAC fell 0.02% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors continue to assess the global trade climate following Trump’s delay to the EU tariffs until July. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.51%, South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 0.27%, China’s CSI index lost 0.54% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day up 0.43%.

The local market started the week flat before rising on Tuesday as tech and the big banks buoyed the local index to a 0.56% rise at the closing bell yesterday.

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) led the ASX200 gains yesterday with a rise of 6.72% amid the rising price of the commodity on the back of Ivanhoe halting production at Africa’s largest copper mine due to seismic activity, pressuring supply side in a time where demand is escalating.

Floods in the Northern NSW Hunter region have already hit IAG (ASX:IAG) with the insurance provider announcing yesterday it has received around 2500 claims related to the flooding. Earlier this month, IAG said its net natural perils claims were estimated to be approximately $900m to the end of April, which is around $250m lower than the year-to-date expectation. Shares in IAG rose 0.7% yesterday.

Telstra shares rose yesterday after the telco giant reaffirmed FY25 guidance, expecting to hit the top end of free cash flow and capex targets, and launched its “Connected Future 30” strategy aiming for over 50% NPAT growth, stronger AI integration, and mid-single digit cash earnings CAGR by FY30.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.05% lower at US$60.88/barrel, gold is down 1.36% at US$3301/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$99.81/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.48 US cents, 93.03 Japanese Yen, 48.06 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.60% tracking Wall Street’s rally on Tuesday.
• We have the all-important monthly CPI reading out today locally with markets expecting the annual inflation rate to fall to 2.2% for the 12-months to April.

Trading ideas: 

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) and have slight lowered the 12-month price target on the leading full-service funeral providers following an update including guidance that has a midpoint of around 8% miss to consensus expectations amid lower seasonality uplift in April and May. The company is well funded and has strong pricing power hence the buy rating, the downgrade in price target is simply due to the company navigating some short-term volatility.
• And Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) from $112.50 to $122.50 and maintain a buy rating on the leading logistics software provider following the recent acquisition announcement of e2open and a delay in the launch of Container Transport Optimisation to 1HFY26.

Wall St was closed on Monday for the Memorial Day public holiday.

In Europe on Monday, markets closed higher as investors welcomed the delay of U.S. tariffs on the region until July. The STOXX 600 rose 1%, Germany’s DAX added 1.6%, the French CAC climbed 1.2%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 was closed for a public holiday.

Across the Asia markets to start the week, markets closed mixed as investors digested Trump’s latest tariff move on the EU. South Korea’s Kospi index jumped 2% to its highest level since 2024, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.35%, China’s CSI index lost 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day up 1%.

Locally on Monday, the ASX200 closed flat as investor sentiment was once again dampened by Trump’s tariff turbulence.

The Trump rollercoaster took another loop again from Saturday to Monday. In the space of 2 days the US president announced and postponed new 50% tariffs on Europe, like he has done in recent times with China and other regions. While the step may be to prompt negotiation talks, the on-again-off-again tariffs reignited investor uncertainty on Monday which has prompted global market selloffs both late last week and locally to start the new weeks on a sour note.

Uranium miners extended their rally from Friday following Trump’s move to sign an executive order to ease the regulatory process for new nuclear reactors and enhance supply chains in attempt to ease dependence on China and Russia for uranium supplies and production. For companies like Boss Energy that has an interest in a South Texan mine, demand for Aussie uranium producers is set to rise following Trump’s latest move, which boosts the growth outlook for such stocks in the eye of investors. Boss Energy rose 7.29% on Monday while Deep Yellow soared 13.65% to start the week on a strong note.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.02% lower at US$61.52/barrel, gold is down 0.5% at US$3341/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$99.81/ounce.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened slightly against the greenback to buy 64.91 US cents, 92.68 Japanese Yen, 47.99 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s session on the ASX, the SPI futures are anticipating the local market will open the new trading day up 0.32%.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Region Group (ASX:RGN) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $2.65. The internally managed REIT and largest owner of Australian supermarket-based shopping centres has strong near-term income growth potential, underpinned by its liquidity and resilient income streams according to the analyst.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Woolworths (ASX:WOW) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 8-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $31.89 to the range of $29.60 to $30.10 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street re-entered sell off mode on Friday after President Trump threatened tariffs on the EU, which on Saturday turned to reality with a 50% tariff announced on the region set to come into effect from June 1. The Dow Jones lost 0.61% on Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.67% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 1%.

Apple shares fell 3% on Friday after Trump posted on Trump social that iPhones sold in the US must be made in the US and if they are not, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple.

In Europe on Friday, markets closed lower amid threats of U.S. tariffs and on the back of corporate earnings results being released in the region. The STOXX600 fell 1%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 1.6%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.2%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested a slew of economic data released in the region. Japan’s Nikkei rose almost half a percent, South Korea’s Kospi index closed flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI index also each closed flat. Japan’s core inflation rose to 3.5% in April boosted by surging rice prices and the BoJ pausing the assess tariff implications. Singapore’s inflation for the same period came in at 0.7%, slightly higher than markets were expecting.

Locally to end the last trading week, the ASX200 posted a second weekly gain as a pullback in bond yields and the outlook for further rate cuts out of the RBA boosted investor sentiment. On Friday, the ASX200 ended the session up 0.15% driven by a rally for tech and energy stocks.

Uranium stocks surged on Friday on reports Trump will sign an executive order to ease the regulatory process for new nuclear reactors and enhance supply chains in attempt to ease dependence on China and Russia for uranium supplies and production. Boss Energy rose 12.82%, Paladin Energy climbed 7.02%, and Deep Yellow ended the day up 9.13%.

What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.54% higher at US$61.53/barrel, gold is up 1.76% at US$3358/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$99.81/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.91 U.S. cents, 92.47 Japanese Yen, 47.97 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.36%.

Trading ideas

• Bell Potter has slightly lowered the 12-month price target on Duratec (ASX:DUR) from $1.95 to $1.80 and maintain a buy rating on the leading Australian infrastructure contractor following the company’s release of a trading update outlining FY25 revenue guidance and EBITDA lower than previously expected attributed to delays in project awards and weather disruptions.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on APA Group (ASX:APA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 32-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $8.13 to the range of $7.55 to $7.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Investor sentiment remains upbeat as M&A activity accelerates, commodities shift gears as the big players look to diversify earnings, and key macro trends point to a busy second half of 2025.

In this week’s wrap, Grady Wulff covers: 

• (0:09) Why M&A is back on the agenda, and what’s fuelling it
• (1:01) The Insignia Financial deal twist and what’s next
• (1:51) Big mining plays: BHP’s copper push & Rio’s lithium leap
• (3:03) Mayne Pharma takeover on thin ice – what it means
• (5:30) ASX200 performance this week, sector winners & losers
• (6:16) Most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:42) Key economic data to watch next week.

Wall Street closed lower for a second day on Wednesday as a spike in treasury yields prompted investors to sell equities on growing fears that a new US budget bill would place even more pressure on the country’s already large deficit. The S&P500 fell 1.61%, the Nasdaq lost 1.41% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 1.91%. 

Across the European region on Wednesday, markets closed mixed as hotter-than-expected inflation out of the UK and a slew of corporate earnings results weighed on investor sentiment. The STOXX 600 fell 0.3%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.2%, the French CAC slipped 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.2%. UK inflation data for April came in at a rise to 3.5%, topping expectations of a rise to 3.3%, which slashes hopes of a rate cut in the near term.

Across the Asia region on Wednesday markets closed mostly higher led by South Korea’s Kospi Index rising 0.91%, while China’s CSI index rose 0.47%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.62%, but Japan’s Nikkei ended the day down 0.61%. 

 Locally on Wednesday, the ASX200 posted a 0.52% gain as investor optimism carried from the prior day and multiple factors boosted the local market. 

Investor sentiment was driven by the RBA’s rate cut in Australia and outlook for more policy easing in months to come and, on a global scale, by China and the US making progress on the tariff negotiations front. Bond yields are also falling which drives investor appetite for equities and a rise in commodities fuelled investor appetite for materials and energy stocks yesterday so broadly it was a great day on the market. 

Nine of the 11 sectors ended today’s session in the green led by energy and healthcare sectors rising around 1% each.

 Mayne Pharma shares tumbled near 30% on Wednesday amid uncertainty over the Cosette takeover offer. Cosette, a US pharmaceutical giant now believes there has been a material adverse change in the company’s financial performance since the offer was first made in February including Mayne issuing weaker-than-expected earnings guidance and disclosed a potential US regulatory issue regarding its contraceptive pill.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.33% lower at US$61.21/barrel, gold is up 0.81% at US$3317.30/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$100.05/tonne. 
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.34 US cents, 92.67 Japanese Yen, 48.01 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents. 
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX 200 will open the day down almost 1% tracking Wall Street’s slide overnight.

 Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Catapult Group (ASX:CAT) from $4.40 to $5.00 and maintain a hold rating on the sports tracking and data technology company following the release of the company’s results yesterday including revenue and gross profits for FY25 modestly ahead of BP expectations, as well as free cash flow of US$8.6m which was a positive surprise. 
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Sims (ASX:SGM) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 41-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $15.42 to the range of $11.60 to $12.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday as investors await clarification on the tariffs front following a strong rally in recent weeks. The S&P500 fell 0.4%, the Dow Jones lost 0.27% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.38%. The recovery rally since Trump announced negotiations were underway with China has seen the S&P500 rally more than 20% since hitting an April low, so investors have just pulled back on Tuesday in anticipation for further clarification on the tariffs front.

In Europe overnight, markets closed higher as strong corporate earnings results in the region boosted investor sentiment. The STOXX 600 rose 0.7%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.3%, the French CAC added 0.75% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.9%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets rose as investors assessed the latest rate cuts in the region including out of the RBA and the People’s Bank of China trimming the 1-year loan prime rate from 3.1% to 3% and the 5-year to 3.5%. China’s CSI index rose 0.57% on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day flat.The local market closed 0.6% higher yesterday as investors welcomed the RBA’s 25 basis point rate cut amid cooling inflation and escalating cost of living pressures.The RBA cut to 3.85% came despite the latest inflation reading and labour market data coming out of favour for a rate cut, however, the overall picture is positive for Australia’s economic stability in taming inflation over the long-run.

Rate sensitive sectors like tech and real estate stocks led the gains yesterday with the sectors rising 2.3% and 1.4% respectively.Technology One soared over 10% on Tuesday after the software giant increased its interim dividend by 30% on the back of strong revenue growth in the first half. Telstra shares also rallied after the telco giant said it would be raising prices, which is good for investors but not so great for customers.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.22% lower at US$62/barrel, gold is up 2.04% at US$3288/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$100/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.16 US cents, 92.75 Japanese Yen, 48.22 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.62%, extending on Tuesday’s rally.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a hold rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE) and have raised the 12-month price target on the software giant from $31.00 to $35.50 following the release of 1H25 results including revenue and profit before tax topping BPe and FY25 guidance was slightly below BPe. The analyst maintains a hold rating as the new price target is a modest discount to the current share price.
• And Bell Potter has initiated coverage of AML3D (ASX:AL3) with a speculative buy rating and 12-month price target of 30cps with the analyst seeing the company is at an inflection point given accelerating demand from the US defence industrial base driving material increase in system sales over the next 3-years. AML3D is a welding, metallurgical science, robotics and software business that produces automated 3D printing systems that utilise Wire Additive Manufacturing technology.

Wall Street ended the first trading session of the new week in positive territory as investors overlooked the latest moody credit rating downgrade on the U.S. on Friday, and instead favoured optimism from the trade negotiation progress with China. The S&P500 rose 0.09% to post a 6th straight winning day, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.02% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.32%. 

The debt downgrade on Friday pushed bond yields higher early on Monday before they retreated in afternoon trade hence sending equities higher to start the week.

Over in Europe on Monday markets in the region closed mostly flat ahead of key corporate earnings results out this week. The STOXX 600 closed flat, Germany’s DAX rose 0.6% to yet another fresh record high, the French CAC fell 0.04%, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.17%.

Across the Asia markets on Monday, it was a sea of red as investors assessed the Moody’s credit rating downgrade on the U.S. and latest slew of economic data out of China including retail sales data rising at a weaker rate than expected for April, while industrial output for the same period rose more than economists were expecting.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.05%, China’s CSI index lost 0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.68% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.89%.
 China’s retail sales for April rose 5.1% in data out yesterday which fell short of expectations of a 5.8% rise and indicates the impact of sluggish post-pandemic era and tariffs on consumer spend in the region.

Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.58% loss on Monday as a sharp selloff in energy and materials stocks weighed on the key index and investor sentiment ahead of the RBA’s rate announcement today.

What to watch today:

• The price of gold rebounded on Monday following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to AA1 from AAA amid mounting concerns over US economic outlook and growing budget deficit. Gold producers including Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources posted gains over 1%, 3% and 2% respectively.
• On a corporate level, we saw Domino’s and Mineral Resources shares both slide yesterday after announcing respective changes at the board level, with Domino’s Chief of Australia and NZ business, Kerri Hayman, stepping down in August after 37-years with the pizza giant, while Mineral Resources announced the appointment of Malcolm Bundey as successor to outgoing chairman James McClements, who will step away from the company’s board in July.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.32% higher at US$62.69/barrel, gold is up 0.81% at US$3229.67/ounce, and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$100/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.60 US cents, 93.53 Japanese yen, 48.30 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar at 9 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day up 0.82%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has upgraded the rating on Paragon Care (ASX:PGC) from a hold to a buy and have a 12-month price target on the company of 52cps following the analyst seeing EPS growth in FY26 which is expected to drive all valuation metrics lower including the PE ratio to below 20x. Management are heavily invested in the long term success of the business and remain laser focused on delivery of the integration, according to the analyst.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $18.88 to the range of $24.50 to $24.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher again on Friday as investors overlooked disappointing consumer sentiment data and continued to welcome progress on the trade talk front between China and the U.S. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Friday and 5.3% for the week, the Nasdaq gained 0.52% on Friday and 7.2% for the week and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.78% and rose 3.4% for the week. The latest consumer sentiment reading out on Friday showed investor sentiment fell to the second lowest Level on record in the latest reading while consumer prices are also expected to rise 7.3% over the next year, up from reported 6.5% expected last month.

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating on Friday though from AAA to AA1 citing concerns around rising US debt.

Over in Europe on Friday, markets closed higher on Friday led by Germany’s DAX rising 0.3% to another record high close, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.4%, the French CAC rose 0.42% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested weaker-than-expected GDP data with a 0.2% contraction reported over the March quarter. Japan’s Nikkei closed flat on Friday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.46%, China’s CSI index fell 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.21%. China’s stocks were weighed down by Alibaba missing earnings expectations on Friday.

Locally on Friday, the ASX ended the week at a 3-month high after Australian economic data and global investor sentiment boosted markets to strong gains throughout the week. The ASX posted a 0.56% gain on Friday led by REIT stocks jumping 2.3%.

Stock specific news, Appen soared 18.7% on Friday after unveiling full-year revenue target of between $235m-$260m.

Uranium miners came under pressure on Friday with Boss Energy, Deep Yellow and Paladin falling over 6% each.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is up 0.13% at US$62.57/barrel, gold is up 1.12% at US$3240/ounce and iron ore is down 0.34% at US$100.08/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.13 US cents, 93.04 Japanese Yen, 48.23 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.08%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Temple & Webster from $15.60 to $21.00 and maintain a hold rating on the leading online homewares retailer after the company released a 2H trading update to-date with revenue growth of 18% on the PCP and EBITDA margins toward the top end of guidance. The hold rating is maintained as growth to $21.00/share is in-line with Bell Potter’s hold rating criteria.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on GR Engineering Services following the formation of a pattern over a period of 49-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.82 to the range of $3.30 to $3.40 according to standard principles of technical analysis.