Between the Bells

Investor optimism fuelled a strong start to the week following the announcement of a temporary 90-day trade agreement between the US and China. This positive sentiment propelled the ASX200 up 1.3% so far this week (Monday to Thursday), with gains in technology stocks overshadowing declines in the utilities, staples, and REIT sectors.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:36): the latest update on US – China trade
• (1:41): wage price growth & jobs data out this week
• (3:13): the rally in Xero, Aristocrat Leisure, GrainCorp & Life360
• (4:45): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:24): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (5:51): economic news items to watch out for.

We’ve had a strong start to the week with the S&P500 and the Dow up more than 4% and 1% respectively, and the Nasdaq advancing more than 6% with investors embracing AI and mega caps. Overnight the major benchmarks closed mixed, the Dow 0.2% in the red, while the S&P500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.7%. And the 10 year Government bond yield hit a 3 month high in the last session.

European markets were all lower with the STOXX600 down 0.24%. Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed in the green with energy and information technology leading market gains.

What to watch today:

• Australian shares are expected to end a 6- day winning streak today, ahead of jobs data. The SPI futures are suggesting the market will drop 0.43% at the drop this morning.
• In economic data today, the unemployment rate for April will be released as well as consumer inflation expectations for May.
• In commodities,
   
  • Cruide oil is 1.7% lower at US$62.59 per barrel, ending a four-day rally as traders likely took profits amid a surprise rise in US crude inventories and renewed demand concerns. 
  • The price of gold is down more than 2% at US$3,181.98 an ounce, as easing trade tensions between the US and China continued to weigh on its safe-haven appeal.
  • And iron ore is up 1.25% at US$100.75 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have downgraded athlete tracking solutions company Catapult Group (ASX:CAT) from a Buy to a Hold and have increased their price target from $4.00 to $4.40. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Sevcorp (ASX:SRV) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $5.26 to the range of $5.52 to $5.58 over 28 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed mostly higher again on Tuesday as soft inflation data and progress on the trade talk front continue to boost investor sentiment. The S&P500 rose 0.72%, the Nasdaq gained 1.61% and the Dow Jones fell 0.64% as United Health declined 17% to pressure the benchmark index. US CPI data for April came in at an increase of 2.3% on an annual basis which was lower than economists’ were expecting and indicate the US inflation journey remains under control despite fears of tariffs boosting CPI.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed slightly higher as uncertainty over global trade outlook remains positive amid China and the US agreeing to a temporary deal. The STOXX 600 rose 0.07%, Germany’s DAX added 0.23% to close at another fresh record high, the French CAC gained 0.3%, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day flat.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investor outlook beyond the 90-day US China tariff deal remains uncertain. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.87%, China’s CSI index rose 0.15%, India’s Nifty 50 fell 1.27% and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day down 1.43%.

The local market hit an 11-week high yesterday, ending Tuesday’s session up 0.43%, taking lead from the global market rally on Monday as investors welcomed the latest deal tariff between China and the US.

With the outlook for lower tariffs on imports into the US from China and vice versa, investors regained appetite for risk and growth stocks, while investors sold out of safe-haven assets like the banks and gold.

Mining giants recovered yesterday with the rising price of oil and iron ore fuelling investor appetite for BHP (ASX:BHP), Woodside (ASX:WDS), Rio (ASX:RIO) and Santos (ASX:STO).

Location tracking tech giant Life 360 (ASX:360) soared over 10% yesterday after releasing record Q1 results including a 33% increase in total subscription revenue to US$81.9m, a 32% increase in total revenue to US$103.6m and positive operating cash flow of US$12.1m, up 13% YoY, and the company ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of US$170.4m. 

What to watch today

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.76% higher at US$63.66/barrel, gold is up 0.41% at US$3249/ounce and iron ore is up 1.22% at US$99.75/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.76 US cents, 95.50 Japanese Yen, 48.69 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.22%.
   Before the bell this morning CBA (ASX:CBA) released its Q3 trading update including cash profit for the quarter of $2.6bn which is flat on 1H25 quarterly average and up 6% on the PCP, while operating income rose 1% and operating expenses also rose 1%. Net interest income for the big bank rose 1% while the net interest margin was stable.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) following the release of the company’s Q3 trading update including sales up 6% on the PCP, while outlook for Q4 remains strong and the company remains as one of the most productive retailers globally.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AMP (ASX:AMP) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 50-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.32 to the range of $1.56 to $1.62 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week significantly higher as investors welcomed the temporary progress in trade talks between China and the US. The Dow Jones rose 2.81%, the S&P500 climbed 3.26% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 4.35%. Shares in companies that rely on production and supply chain elements from China like Tesla, Apple and Nvidia had investors buying in on Monday with each rising over 5%.

The latest update from the China and US trade talks is that both nations have agreed to cut their respective tariffs on one another for 90-days, with tariffs on Chinese imported goods into the US to be 30% and tariffs on US good into China to be 10% for the period.

In Europe overnight, markets also closed higher in the region as global investors welcomed progress on the global trade front. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2% to another fresh record high, the French CAC added 1.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.

Across the APAC region on Monday, markets rallied after the US and China temporary trade deal was unveiled. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.98%, China’s CSI index climbed 1.16%, India’s Nifty 50 gained 3.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day up 0.38%.

Locally to start the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.03% rise to start the new trading week as weakness among pharmaceutical stocks weighed on strong gains for the big miners amid progress in talks between China and the US.

Trump’s latest pharmaceutical tariff announcement hit locally listed healthcare providers hard this week with Botanix, Neuren, Telix and Clarity all dropping over 5% on Monday. Trump’s latest move in the healthcare space is that he wants to cut the price of prescription drugs which will in-turn hurt the margins made by any pharmaceutical producer selling their treatments in the US.

As progress talks between the US and China continue to make headway, safe-haven stocks were on the chopping block yesterday as market uncertainty begins to ease. Gold stocks retreated with Evolution Mining, Northern Star Resources and Genesis Minerals each fell over 3%.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.61% higher at US$62/barrel, gold is down 2.65% at US$3236/ounce and iron ore is up 1.22% at US$99.75/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.70 US cents, 94.53 Japanese Yen, 48.57 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 1.17% tracking global market strength overnight.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on REA Group (ASX:REA) from $264 to $267 and maintain a buy rating on the leading online real estate platform following the release of the company’s Q3 update including double-digit revenue growth, and strong yield growth which is set to continue amid the rate cut outlook.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Technology One (ASX:TNE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 25-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $31.62 to the range of $23.25 to $24.75 according to standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St had a negative end to the week last week as investors awaited clarity on US-China trade talks and the Fed held the US cash rate steady amid outlook for tariff implications sparking an inflationary rebound in the world’s largest economy. The Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P500 lost 0.07% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day flat.

This morning, Trump has declared great progress after high-level trade talks began with China over the weekend, with the US president claiming the meeting as a ‘total reset’ in the trade war which positions the markets for a strong start to the new trading week.

In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as investors hold high hopes of a positive outcome from the US and China’s trade negotiations. The STOXX 600 rose 0.44%, Germany’s DAX closed at a record high up 0.63%, the French CAC rose 0.64% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.3%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested the latest economic data out of China and awaited key trade talks between the US and China over the weekend. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.56% on Friday, China’s CSI index fell 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.09%.

Locally to end the week, the ASX 200 ended the week with a positive session on Friday as the key index rose 0.48% boosted by a strong tech and financial rally, but for the week the ASX 200 posted a slight decline of 0.08%. Healthcare stocks took the biggest hit over the last 5-trading days as investors fled the sector over concerns of Trump’s pharmaceuticals tariffs set to be rolled out over the coming weeks.

Liontown Resources soared 195 on Friday after the lithium producer released 2-key trading updates this week that were well received by investors, despite the spot price of lithium carbonate sinking to a four-year low this week.

And Chrysos Corporation soared almost 18% on Friday after signing an agreement with gold production giant Newmont Corporation that will see Chrysos’ PhotonAssay technology used for Newmont’s gold mining projects.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.67% higher at US$61.43/barrel, gold is down 1.3% at US$3282/ounce and iron ore is up 0.33% at US$98.55/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.29 US cents, 93.79 Japanese Yen, 48.57 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of the first trading session of the new week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.19% amid positive sentiment from progress on the global trade war front.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Catalyst Metals from a hold to a buy and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold producer following the acquisition of the Old Highway gold project for $32.5m cash from Sandfire Resources. With 2.1 million tonnes at 3g/t containing 206koz gold, and a higher-grade underground component, the project adds significant upside to Catalysts’ portfolio and value.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Super Retail Group following the formation of a pattern over a period of 45-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $14.14 to the range of $15.10 to $15.40 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

This week, Grady examines the key drivers of market activity: the latest quarterly updates, ongoing global trade tensions, and the trajectory of China’s economic recovery. Plus, hear insights from Bell Potter healthcare analyst John Hester, who yesterday discussed the potential impact of pending pharmaceutical tariffs on Australian listed healthcare companies.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:32): why WiseTech (ASX:WTC) declined on Tuesday
• (1:00): exclusive addition - Bell Potter’s view on Trump’s healthcare tariffs
• (3:48): Westpac (ASX:WBC) & NAB (ASX:NAB) 1H results
• (4:33): the latest on the US – China trade talks
• (5:56): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (6:28): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:56): economic news items to watch out for.

US equities all closed higher overnight after a volatile session as the Federal Reserve signalled that the risks for an economic slowdown and higher prices are increasing. The Dow Jones gained 0.7%, boosted by a nearly 11% jump in Disney shares following their fiscal second quarter report which saw a surprising increase in subscriber numbers. The S&P500 gained 0.43% while the Nasdaq gained 0.27%.

Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee held its held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. Rates were held steady, with officials adopting a wait-and-see approach amid growing fears of economic stagnation fuelled by President Trump’s tariffs.

European markets all closed in the red with corporate earnings the main focus for investors. The STOXX600 closed 0.5% lower.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 gained 0.33% with energy and real estate in the lead, while healthcare and tech were the only two sectors to close in the red.

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting our local market will rise slightly, up 0.1% at the open this morning.
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil is trading almost 2% lower at US$57.93 per barrel, hovering near four-year lows due to muted optimism ahead of upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as officials adopt the wait-and-see approach on tariffs.
  • The price of gold is 1.07% lower at US$3,364.21 an ounce with the rising risks of both inflation and unemployment, reinforcing a cautious stance on future rate adjustments.
  • And iron ore is up 0.7% at US$99.33 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a BUY rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) with a 12- month price target of $7.00. At BGA’s current share price of $5.93, this implies 18% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.75 to the range of $4.21 - 4.31 over 33 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US on Tuesday, Wall St continued its sell-off as investors await further clarity on the global trade and tariff front. The Dow Jones fell 0.95%, the S&P500 lost 0.77% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.87%. Tesla shares came off 1.8% on Tuesday after the company’s new car sales in Britain and Germany fell to their lowest in more than two years last month despite growing consumer demand for electric vehicles.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly lower as investors continue to monitor corporate earnings results and uncertainty around the US trade outlook. The STOXX 600 fell 0.18%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.4%, the French CAC fell 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up just 0.01%.

Across Asia on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors in the region continue to assess the unfolding trade situation between the US and key trade partners like China. China’s CSI index rose 1.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.7%, India’s Nifty 50 fell 0.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a public holiday.

The local market started the new trading week with a sell-off that ended a 7-day winning streak for the ASX200 after key trading updates and uncertainty around tariffs and trade deals weighed on investor sentiment. On Tuesday the key index ended the day down 0.1% as healthcare and the banking stocks weighed on the key index.

An increasing amount of locally listed companies have been updating the market with tariff implication expectations and unclear outlook notes that have increased investor panic in recent days. Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) fell over 2.5% after warning of potential demand risks from tariffs as the latest company to report uncertain outlook.

Tabcorp (ASX:TAH) bucked the volatility yesterday with a rise of 9% after the gaming and wagering company announced the wagering market remains strong with a modest improvement to the turnover trend in the wagering market, indicating consumer demand remains strong despite broader volatility.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil has rebounded to trade 3.3% higher at US$59/barrel, gold is up 2.46% at US$3416/ounce and iron ore is down 0.8% at US$97.41/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.94 US cents, 92.51 Japanese Yen, 48.33 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.38% tracking Wall Street’s losses overnight.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Platinum Asset Management (ASX:PTM) from a hold to a sell after the funds manager released April’s results including FUM falling $629m or 6.1% to $9.647bn.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Lovisa (ASX:LOV) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $24.85 to the range of $19 - $20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St started the new trading week lower, with the S&P500 snapping a 9-day winning streak as investors continue to monitor the latest global trade developments. The S&P500 fell 0.64%, the Nasdaq lost 0.74% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.24%. Sentiment slightly rose after a report outlined that India has proposed zero tariffs on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals, while investors still remain cautious about the timeline and exact scope of tariff agreements between the US and key trade partners.

In Europe overnight markets in the region closed mixed as investors look ahead to key economic data out in the region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.16%, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.1%, the French CAC fell 0.55% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 was closed for a holiday.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets rose after China said it was evaluating possible trade talks with the US as the ongoing tariff war continues to unfold. China’s markets were closed for a public holiday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.74%, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.04%, India’s Nifty 50 climbed 0.21% and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 0.12%.

Locally to start the new week, the ASX200 fell 1% to snap a 7-day winning streak as weaker-than-expected results out of Westpac weighed on the financial sector and dented overall investor sentiment.

Westpac (ASX:WBC) kicked off the results release for the big banks with first half profit sliding 1% on 1H24 amid rising geopolitical risks and a highly competitive mortgage market. The bank’s net interest margin, where most of profits are made, also fell 1bps to 1.88%. On release of the results WBC shares fell over 2% while all big bank stocks also retreated on Monday.

Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR) climbed almost 10% on Monday after coming out of a trading halt and addressing speculation it had received a takeover and entered into a takeover offer with Gruyere Holdings to acquire 100% of issued and outstanding shares in Gold Road by way of a scheme of arrangement valuing Gold Road at around $3.7bn.

 What to watch today: 

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.88% lower at US$57.19/barrel, gold is up 2.87% at US$3332/ounce and iron ore is down 0.8% at US$97.41/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.66 US cents, 92.94 Japanese Yen, 48.76 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.26% extending on yesterday’s losses.

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Chrysos Corporation (ASX:C79) from $4.70 to $4.40 and maintain a hold rating on the global mining assay service provider following the release of the company’s May 2025 trading update including revenue beating BPe for the latest quarter, and 5 units being deployed with revenues expected to start generating from these units by the end of FY25. The slight downgrade of the price target is due to recent contract wins outpacing deployment and revenue tracking at the lower end of the guidance range.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $142.03 to the range of $156 to $160 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St ended the last trading week on a high after better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data for April eased recession fears and lifted the S&P500 to its longest winning streak in over 2-decades. The S&P500 gained 1.5% on Friday, the Dow Jones rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.51%. Payrolls in the US grew by 177,000 in April, well above the 133,000 economists were expecting in a sign the labour market remains strong despite recession fears amid the Trump tariff turmoil.

Across the European region on Friday, markets closed higher on better-than-expected economic data and on trade war de-escalation between China and the US. The STOXX 600 rose 1.7%, Germany’s DAX added 2.62%, France’s CAC rose 2.33% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.17%.

Asia markets ended the week in the green as trade talks between China and the US continue to make progress. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.74%, India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.21%, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.04%, and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 0.12%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 ended the week on a high a gain of 1.1% boosted by strength among tech stocks following a strong night for the Nasdaq on Thursday night despite gloomy earnings out of Amazon, Block and Apple.

Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD) tumbled 9.2% on Friday after saying it expects to report lower revenue and earnings growth due to the initial impact of tariffs on client demand, while Block sank 25.9% after the digital payments provider lowered its full year guidance.

 What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 3.6% lower at US$56.24/barrel, gold is up 0.14% at US$3244/ounce and iron ore is down 1.07% at US$98.19/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.53 US cents, 93.38 Japanese Yen, 48.56 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.4% to extend on last week’s gains.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) from $30.75 to $31.85 and maintain a hold rating on the supermarket giant following the release of the company’s Q3 results including 3.2% YoY sales growth on a group level, while Australian food revenues rose 3.6% and Australian B2B business revenues rose 6.4%. NZ food sales rose just 1.8% YoY and W Living sales fell 2.6% YoY. The reason for the maintenance of the hold rating is that Woolworths is currently trading on a multiple consistent to Coles and the analyst feels it is difficult to see the catalyst to return the rating to a premium compared to Coles at present.
• And Bell Potter has reduced the rating on SGH (ASX:SGH) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $57 to $54.50 following a mixed outlook in the company’s operating divisions. While equipment orders are lifting, aggregate prices are falling and the construction market remains flat in recent months. Trading on a 20.3x FY26 PE, the analyst believes SGH is currently fairly valued.