Between the Bells

Markets welcomed some positive news this week on the Trump Tariff front with a reduction in the US automotive tariff announced and news that a major trade deal will soon be announced with China. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers: 

• (0:21): how tariff concerns impacted imports of foreign goods
• (1:32): consumer sentiment data out this week 
• (1:57): an update on China’s post-pandemic recovery 
• (3:15): Australia’s underlying inflation figures 
• (4:36): how the ASX200 performed this week so far 
• (5:29): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (5:52): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall St closed mixed on Wednesday following the release of US GDP data for Q1 that indicated economic contraction of 0.3% QoQ which is well below the 2.4% expansion reported in Q4 and below economists’ expectations of a 0.5% rise in GDP for the latest reading. The slide in GDP enhanced investor fears of a US recession which impacted equities on Wednesday. The Dow Jones rose 0.35%, and the S&P500 gained 0.15% but the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.09%. Consumer confidence, JOLTs Job Openings and the personal spending index all in the US were also released for the latest period overnight with each coming in poorer than economists’ were expecting.

European markets closed higher on Wednesday as investors reacted to worse-than-expected economic data out of the US. The STOXX 600 rose 0.46%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.32%, the French CAC added 0.32% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.37%

Asia Markets closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested an array of key economic data out in the region and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate meeting kicking off. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.51%, and China’s CSI index fell 0.12% after China’s manufacturing activity dropped more than expected in April to enter contraction territory.

Locally on Wednesday, the ASX extended its rally into the midweek session with a gain of 0.7% taking lead from Wall Street’s strength on Tuesday. Real estate stocks led the gains on Wednesday while other rate sensitive sectors like Tech and consumer discretionary stocks posted notable gains.

Australia’s latest inflation reading for the March Quarter was released yesterday with monthly inflation rising 0.9% while the annual rate remained at 2.4%. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.8% in the quarter which is now back within the RBA’s target 2-3% range. Markets are expecting a 62% chance of a rate cut to be announced at the next RBA meeting in May prior to the CPI reading release yesterday.

Gold producer Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) extended its sell-off yesterday after the gold giant lowered its output guidance for FY25, while Ora Banda (ASX:OBM) also tumbled over 6% after also lowering full-year production guidance.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the first session of the new trading month down 0.34% following Wall Street’s turbulence overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.42% lower at US$58.35/barrel, gold is down 1.13% at US$3279/ounce and iron ore is down 0.1% at US$99.76/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.08 US cents, 91.62 Japanese Yen, 47.61 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target to $4.57 on the gold producer following the release of the company’s March quarter report which beat BPe on production and costs. The downgrade to a hold is simply due to recent share price appreciation.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Autosports Group (ASX:ASG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 97-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.94 to the range of $2.11 to $2.17 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

The recent rally on Wall St extended into Tuesday’s session as investor optimism was boosted by the White House saying a major trade deal is close to being announced. The S&P500 rose 0.58% to notch a 6th straight winning session, while the Dow Jones rallied 0.75% to also post a 6th straight winning day, and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.55%.

In Europe overnight, it was a sea of green as investors responded to corporate results out in the region including Lufthansa posting a revenue beat, Deutsche Bank reporting a 39% rise in first-quarter profit and HSBC topping profit expectations. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX added 0.1%, the French CAC gained 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed corporate earnings results and Trump’s move to reduce automotive tariffs. China’s CSI index ended down 0.17%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.16% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day with a gain of 0.65%.

The local market started the new trading week in positive territory with the ASX200 hitting a 2-month high to end Tuesday’s session up 0.9%. Trump’s tariff concerns remain in the background of investor concerns right now but are being overlooked ahead of the all-important local inflation reading out today and ahead of the RBA’s anticipated rate cut to come in May. Yesterday we had further clarity out of the US that negotiation talks on tariffs between China and the US are progressing and Trump reduced the tariff he recently imposed on automotive sales.

The recent uranium stock rally extended yesterday as the price of the commodity rose 0.6% to US$67/pound, but more of the gains can be explained by Boss Energy’s (ASX:BOE) driving force after the uranium producer reported its first quarter of free cash flow generation and that output and costs had met or beat expectations. Boss Energy rose over 14% on Tuesday, Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) gained 11.71%% and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) ended the day up 8.5%.

Elsewhere in the mining space, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) surged over 12% on Tuesday despite releasing a quarterly update including iron ore output guidance slashed again and the company burnt through $300m of cash in the quarter.

What to watch today

• On the commodities front:
  • Oil is down 2.64% at US$60.41/barrel, gold is down 0.6% at US$3317.80/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$99.91/tonne.
  • The Aussie dollar is buying 63.86 US cents, 90.90 Japanese Yen, 47.86 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.35% tracking global market gains overnight.
• Also today we will receive the latest March quarter inflation reading with the market forecasting an uptick of 0.8% in the reading, which will indicate inflation continues to ease and provides the RBA with further support for a rate cut at the next meeting in May.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold production and development company following the release of the company’s Q3 results including total gold production of 24.3koz at AISC of A$2765/ounce. With growth on the horizon, the downgrade to a hold is simply on the grounds of current valuation of the company being within the Bell Potter hold criteria.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perenti (ASX:PRN)following the formation of a pattern over a period of 40-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.38 to the range of $1.58 to $1.62 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities closed missed overnight, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, the S&P500 up 0.06% and the Nasdaq slightly lower just 0.1%. S&P500 futures are pointing lower this morning, after the index posted five straight winning sessions. Investors are preparing for earnings week, with approximately a third of S&P500- listed firms posting results. 

 European markets were all higher with the FTSE 100 posting its best winning streak in over 5 years. 

Yesterday our local market advanced 0.36% with 10 of the 11 industry sectors in the green. Energy and technology advanced the most, while materials was the only sector to close lower. Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) lead the market rally, while healthcare companies Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) declined the most. 

 What to watch today

• The Australian market is set to open higher this morning, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.21% rise at the open this morning. 
• In commodities, 
  • Crude oil is trading 1.57% lower at around US$62.00 per barrel, as tariff- driven growth concerns threatened to dampen fuel consumption, while supply surged. OPEC+ surprised markets by adding approximately 411,000 barrels per day in May, reversing much of last year’s cutbacks. 
  • The gold price is up 0.57% at US$3,338.85 an ounce, boosted by bargain hunting and cautious sentiment ahead of key US economic data, as well as US- China trade developments. 
  • And iron ore is currently steady at US$99.91 per tonne. 

 Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on mining contractor and operator Develop Global (ASX:DVP). Their price target remains unchanged at $4.00 and at DVP’s current share price of $2.71 this implies 48% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Lendlease Group (ASX:LLC) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $5.08 to the range of $4.05 - $4.25 over 18 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St closed higher on Friday as investors continue to navigate the evolving situation on a global trade front while the big tech names got a welcome boost following a sell-off in recent times. The S&P500 rose 0.74% on Friday for a fourth straight winning session while the Nasdaq gained 1.26% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.05%.

Over in Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as earnings reports out in the region were well-received by investors despite ongoing trade uncertainty. The STOXX 600 rose 0.35%, Germany’s DAX added 0.8%, the French CAC added 0.45%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.1%.

Across the Asia region to end the week markets closed mostly higher as investors continue to assess the possibility of easing trade war tensions between China and the US. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.24%, China’s CSI index closed flat, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.9% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.95%.

Locally on Thursday the ASX200 rose 0.6% to end the holiday shortened trading week up 2.3% as investor optimism around a rate cut out of the RBA in May boosted investor sentiment. While Trump’s tariff moves continue to weigh on investor sentiment, we are seeing certain companies rally from exemptions like ResMed (ASX:RMD) soaring 8.5% on Thursday after revealing its sleep apnoea devices have received an exemption from Trump’s tariffs.

 Uranium miners also rallied on Thursday with Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) jumping 12% after announcing record production at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia.

What to watch today

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day just 0.02% higher.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.71% higher at US$63.44/barrel, gold is down 0.26% at US$3311/ounce and iron ore is down 0.06% at US$99.92/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy US$0.64, 91.93 Japanese Yen, 48.10 British Pence and NZ$1.07.

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter has slightly reduced the 12-month price target on Seek (ASX:SEK) from $27.00 to $25.80 and maintain a buy rating on Australia’s leading online jobs advertisement platform following a mixed month of jobs report for March. For the month, Seek’s employment report for Australia outlined an accelerating decline for job ads, down 12.8% YoY on platform and the ABS’ internet job ad vacancy index also worsened for March, down 16.3%. Despite the weakness in the ABS data, Seek is significantly outperforming ABS data.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Autosports Group (ASX:ASG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 55-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.83 to the range of $2.00 to $2.06 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

European markets rallied on hopes of cooling US – China trade tensions. The STOXX 600 gained 1.78%, German’s DAX gained more than 3%, France’s CAC up more than 2% and the FTSE 100 up 0.9%. 

 The three major US benchmarks were also all higher, posting back-to-back gains. The Dow Jones advanced 1.07% or 63 points, the S&P500 up 1.67%, while the tech- heavy Nasdaq advanced 2.5%. 

 What to watch today

• The SPI futures are suggesting the Australian market will rise 0.16% at the open this morning. 
• Looking at commodities, 
  • Crude oil has declined 2.24% to US$62.24 per barrel, amid the possibility that OPEC+ may continue to increase supply in upcoming months. 
  • The price of gold is trading 0.69% lower at US$3,313.40 an once, after hitting a record of US$3,500 the prior session and contrasting with the rally in other dollar- denominated financial assets that benefited from expectations of a de-escalation in the China and US trade tensions. 
  • While iron ore is trading higher, up 0.21% at US$100.09 per tonne. 

Trading Ideas

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) following a strong quarter of revenue growth. Their 12-month price target remains unchanged at $36.00 and at TLX’s current share price of $25.18, this implies 43% share price growth in a year. 

And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $6.75 to the range of $7.70 to $7.75 over 30 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

European markets closed higher after the European Central Bank reported that the disinflation process in Europe was “nearing completion.” The STOXX 600 closed 0.25% higher, the German DAX up 0.4%, France’s CAC up 0.56% and the FTSE 100 up 0.6%. 

 US equities rallied on Wall Street overnight, ending a four- day streak of losses, as hope that trade tensions between the US and China could potentially ease soon. The Dow Jones advanced 2.66%, the S&P500 up 2.51% and the Nasdaq up 2.7%. 

 Yesterday the ASX200 closed slightly lower, just 0.03%, with what was a quieter trading day to start the three-day working week between Easter and Anzac Day long weekends. Financials, consumer staples and materials were the only sectors to close in the green. 

West African Resources (ASX:WAF) and Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) lead the gains, while Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) and Zip Co. (ASX:ZIP) declined the most. 

 What to watch today:

• Following US equities, the Aussie market is set up to jump 1.28% at the open this morning, according to the SPI futures. 
• In economic data today, the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Flash PMI will be released, a forward looking estimate of the final PMI out next week. 
• In commodities, 
  • Crude Oil recovered earlier losses, trading over 3% higher at US$64.36 per barrel, likely in a technical rebound after falling over 2% in the previous session. With that in mind, the outlook for crude is bearish as progress in discussions between the US and Iran has increased the possibility of a deal to bring Iranian oil exports back to the market. 
  • The price of gold has declined, down more than 3%, trading at US$3,327.97 an ounce, after having touched a new record of US$3,500 earlier in the trading session. 
  • And iron ore is steady at US$99.88 per tonne. 
• And Woolworths (ASX:WOW) is scheduled to pay its fully franked interim dividend of 39cps today. 

 Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains its BUY rating on Alcidion (ASX:ALC), a commercial healthcare IT company and have maintained their 12-month price target of $0.11. At ALC’s current share price of $0.08, this implies 39.2% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Qube Holdings (ASX:QUB) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $3.79. 

Wall St closed lower overnight as Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones fell by 2.48%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.36% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Monday’s trading session 2.55% in the red.

Over in Europe, markets closed flat on Thursday following the European Central Banks decision to cut interest rates. The STOXX600 fell 0.1% lower, Germany’s DAX fell 0.49%, the French CAC dropped 0.6% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed the trading session flat.

Locally on Thursday, the ASX200 closed 0.78% higher with all but one major sector closing in the green. Gains were led by the energy and material sectors which rose by 3.82% and 1.45% respectively. This was slightly offset by the health sector which dropped by 0.13% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.6% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 1.9% lower at US$63.45 per barrel 
  • Gold is trading 3.15% higher at US$3,431 an ounce 
  • Iron ore is trading 0.13% lower at US$99.92 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) and has a 12-month price target of $2. With a current share price of $1.43 this indicates a share price growth of 40% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) indicating that the share price may rise from the close of $125.67 to the range of $169-$179, on a pattern formed over 16 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Yesterday our local market closed slightly lower, down 0.04%, with energy and information technology down the most.  

On the ASX200 leaderboard, BNPL company ZIP Co (ASX:ZIP) advanced more than 16% after the company reported a 219% year-on-year increase in EBITDA of $46 million. 

Overnight, US equities closed in the red, with all three major benchmarks down after a significant tech sell- off and tariff concerns. The Dow Jones lost 1.7% or almost 700 points, the S&P500 closed 2.24% lower, while the tech- heavy Nasdaq closed 3.07% lower. 

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting the Australian market will fall 0.33% at the open this morning, following the heavy sell- off on Wall Street. 
• Keep watch of BHP Group (ASX:BHP) this morning as the mining giant is set to release its third quarter update.
• And in economic data, today Australia’s unemployment rate data for March will be released.  
• Looking at commodities, 
  • Crude oil is trading higher, 2.44% in the green at US$62.82 per barrel, as fresh US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian crude, reignited supply concerns. 
  • The price of gold reached a record high, trading up 3.25% at US$3,356.67 an ounce, as the increasing unpredictability of the US trade policy and low demand for the US dollar and Treasury securities has left gold as one of the main saf0- haven commodities. 
  • And iron ore is steady at US$100.19 a tonne.  

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains their Buy rating on Select Harvest (ASX:SHV) after the almond grower delivered a disappointing crop update with an approximate 10% downward revision to FY25 crop expectations. Bell Potter believe it was largely offset by stronger pricing outcomes, which look likely to be a greater benefit into FY26-27. Their 12- month price target remains unchanged at $5.80, and at SHV’s current share price of $4.60, this implies 26.1% share price growth in a year.
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $21.36.

Wall St closed modestly lower on Tuesday as investors shifted focus from tariffs to first quarter earnings results. The Dow Jones lost 0.38%, the S&P500 fell 0.17% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.05%. Bank of America rose 3.6% yesterday after exceeding analysts’ expectations for Q1 results, while Untied Airlines and Netflix are also expected to report this week. Boeing shares fell more than 2% though on Tuesday on reports that Beijing ordered Chinese airlines not to take anymore of the company’s planes.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region rose amid investor optimism of further tariff exemptions to come from the White House. The STOXX 600 rose 1.6%, Germany’s DAX added 1.3%, the French CAC gained 0.9% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.5%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly rose in the region as a tech rally boosted investor sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.84%, South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.88%, India’s Nifty 50 rose 2.18% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day up 0.23%.

The local market rallied for a second session on Tuesday with a gain of 0.17% after a day of relative calm with minimal news on the tariff front out of the White House. Investors increasingly sought out defensive stocks on Tuesday with CSL and CBA rising 2.56% and 0.87% respectively.

The high growth tech sector came under pressure on Tuesday despite strength on the Nasdaq on Monday and Trump’s exemption of key tech tariffs.
 KFC Australia operator Collins Food Group fell over 7.7% on Tuesday after announcing the results of its strategic review including the exiting of its Taco Bell operations in Australia and further expansion of KFC into Germany.

Accent Group on the other hand rallied over 4.5% after announcing it will launch and operate leading global sports retailing business, Sports Direct to Australia and New Zealand. The leading Australian retailer also announced a long-term strategic relationship with Frasers Group, a global retailer of sports, premium and luxury brands based in London, with Frasers also increasing its stake in Accent Group to 19.57%.

What to watch today:

• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 63.48 US cents, 90.82 Japanese Yen, 48.08 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.33% lower at US$61.32/barrel, gold is up 0.5% at US$3227.51/ounce and iron ore is up 0.13% at US$100.08/tonne. 
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.04%

 Trading Idea.s:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold and copper miner from $7.89 to $8.10 following the release of the company’s March quarter report which came in strong as Bell Potter was expecting. The downgrade to a hold simply follows recent share price appreciation.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 38-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.46 to the range of $10.10 to $10.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.