Between the Bells

The world’s largest market, the US, started the new trading week mostly in the green despite investors remaining nervous about ‘liberation day’ on April 2nd whereby it is expected President Donald Trump will announce an array of reciprocal tariffs on countries he believes have been tough on the US in terms of tariffs and trade in recent years. The Dow Jones rose 1%, the S&P500 added 0.55% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.14%.

In Europe overnight the sea of red extended into the new trading week across the region as investors brace for reciprocal tariffs out of the US on 2nd April. The STOXX600 fell 1.51% to post the first losing month on the index for 2025. Germany’s DAX lost 1.33%, the French CAC fell 1.58% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.88%.

Across the APAC region on Monday, markets also closed lower on Monday ahead of Trump’s second round of tariffs to be announced. Japan’s Nikkei plunged 4.05%, China’s CSI index lost 0.71%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.09% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 3%.

South Korea and Japan are expected to bear much of the brunt of Trump’s newly introduced 25% automotive tariff with these regions ranking 2nd and 3rd among the countries with the highest automotive trade with the US.

Locally to start the week the ASX200 plunged into the red with a 1.7% decline at the closing bell to mark the 3rd worst trading session of the year, as global market sentiment remains uneasy amid escalated tariff, trade war and subdued economic global growth concerns.
The iron ore mining giants were sold off on Monday as the outlook for exports remains murky, especially to our largest trade partner, China. BHP, Rio and Champion Iron each fell over 3%, over 4% and over 5% respectively to start the new trading week lower.

Domain shares fell almost 2% on Monday after the board unanimously recommended a takeover bid from US real estate company CoStar to shareholders. Shareholders were seemingly unimpressed which led to the sell-off yesterday.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the ASX, the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day up 0.85% tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight.
• The all-important RBA interest rate meeting is today with the market expecting Australia’s central bank to hold the current cash rate at 4.1% for the next period.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.85% higher at US$71.34/barrel, gold is 1.3% higher at US$3124/ounce and iron ore is up 0.07% at US$102.43/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback overnight to buy US$0.62, 93.67 Japanese Yen, 48.22 British Pence and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has slightly reduced the 12-month price target on Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) from $205 to $197 and maintain a buy rating on the leading global cross-platform games operator after Aristocrat Leisure escalated its legal fight against Light and Wonder with a second amended complaint around LNW’s Jewel of the Dragon game.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Cochlear (ASX:COH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $262.30 to the range of $246 to $250 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday as hotter-than-expected personal spending inflation data and US trade policy uncertainty dampened investor sentiment. The Dow Jones fell 1.7% on Friday, the S&P 500 lost 1.97% and the tech heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 2.7%.

On Friday U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index came in hotter-than-expected for February with a rise of 2.8% and 0.4% MoM indicating persistent inflation across consumer spending.

Over in Europe on Friday, markets in the region closed lower as global market sentiment declines on trade and tariff uncertainty. The STOXX 600 fell 0.77%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 1%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.

Across Asia on Friday, Trump tariff threats continue to keep investors on edge in the region which led to a negative day across the board on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.8%, South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 1.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.65% and China’s CSI index ended the day down 0.44%.

Locally to end the week the ASX edged 0.2% higher to end a volatile trading week as Trump’s tariffs cloud economic outlook on a global scale. Despite the turbulence, the ASX200 posted a 0.6% gain for the trading week last week as a 2.55% rally for the financial sector and 2% gain among energy stocks offset weakness among the rate sensitive sectors of REIT and Tech stocks.

Packaging group Orora took the biggest hit on Friday with an 8% decline after the French Competition Authority announced a review into industry-wide anticompetitive practices, which includes into Saverglass, a European bottle maker that Orora acquired in 2023.

Paladin Energy fell a further 4.1% on Friday after the uranium producer retracted its 2025 production guidance due to unseasonably heavy rainfall in Namibia in recent times, which is where Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine is located.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session here in Australia, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 1.13%.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.8% lower at US$69.36/barrel, gold is up 0.94% at US$3084.35/ounce and iron ore is up 0.07% at US$102.43/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 62.80 US cents, 94.27 Japanese Yen, 49.03 British Pence, and NZ$1.11.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) from $330/share to $280/share and maintain a buy rating on the leading medical imaging company after Bell Potter’s analyst completed a review into the timing of new contract installations and their subsequent impacts on revenue over the coming years. The downgrade in PT is due to downgrades in FY25 and FY26 EPS expectations from the analyst following the review into the contract installations.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 17-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $4.23 to the range of $4.31 to $4.35 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

This week, news headlines around the Trump Tariffs continued, with President Donald Trump announcing a 25% tariff on all cars and parts that are not built or produced in the US. US consumer and business confidence are taking a hit, so where does this leave you and your investment decisions?

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:11): how the Trump Tariffs impact investors
• (1:59): why copper prices hit a fresh record high
• (3:52): the impact on US consumer & business confidence
• (4:54): how the ASX200 performed this week so far
• (5:37): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:05): economic news items to watch out for next week.

Wall St closed lower overnight as Donald Trump announced a new 25% tariff on auto imports into the United States. The Dow Jones fell 0.31%, the S&P 500 lost 1.12% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by over 2%.

In terms of US stocks, Meta Platforms and Amazon lost more than 2%, Alphabet closed more than 3% lower and Tesla closed nearly 6% in the red.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as investors react to new tariffs implemented over in the US. The STOXX600 dropped 0.7%, led by autos which fell by 2.6%. Germany’s DAX lowered 1.17%, the French CAC closed nearly 1% lower, whilst over in the UK, the FTSE100 rose by 0.3%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 rose by 0.71% with all but one major sector closing in the green. Gains were led by the consumer staples and real estate sectors which rose by 1.19% and 1.15% respectively. This was offset by the health sector which fell by over half a percent by the closing bell.

Monthly inflation data was released yesterday coming in at 2.4% for February. This was lower than consensus of 2.5% and the forecast of 2.6%. The CPI falling is a good thing for the RBA’s outlook for rate cuts to come as inflation drivers are all moving in the right direction – wages price inflation came down, GDP uptick, retail sales easing and the unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.1% which is favourable for the rate cut journey.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.46% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 1.36% higher at 69 US dollars and 94 cents a barrel, as investors increase concerns over tight oil supply.
  • Gold fell by just 0.04% to 3019 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.03% lower at 102 US dollars and 18 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) and has a 12-month price target of $7.70. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as their balance sheet will significantly de-risk with the Blackwater selldown completion in late March 2025. As well, further productivity enhancements across WHC’s Queensland portfolio should support higher production, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.23 to the range of $3.53-$3.61, on a pattern formed over 8 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher overnight for its third straight session on higher hopes of softer US tariffs. The Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.01%, the S&P 500 jumped 0.16% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.46%.

Europe followed the US and closed higher with the STOXX600 rising 0.67%, with all major sectors closing in positive territory. Germany’s DAX climbed 1.13%, the French CAC gained 1.08% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 ended Tuesday’s session 0.3% in the green.

Locally yesterday, the market has continued with the same volatility we’ve seen over the past few weeks with the ASX200 rising by 0.07%. Gains were led by the information technology and health sectors which rose by 1.87% and 0.98%. This was slightly offset by the consumer staples sector which fell by 0.86% by market close.

Australia’s Federal budget for 2025-2026 was handed down last night but should pose little impact on the market movements today as much of the government spend updates were pre-announced. However, the one key highlight was that the budget deficit is expected to widen to $42.1bn, or 1.5% of GDP in 2025-2026. The key inclusions were the $150 energy bill relief for all Australians to help with cost of living pressures, an $8.5bn boost to Medicare, $1bn in military spend which has been brought forward with the total defence spend at $10.6bn over the next 4-years, and states and territories will also be offered almost $50m in funding to grow local housing industries amid the housing crisis currently operating in Australia.

What to watch locally today,

• The Australian share market is set to open higher with the SPI futures set to rise by 0.59% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.12% higher at 69 US dollars and 19 cents a barrel, gold is trading 0.28% higher at 3018 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.21% higher at 102 US dollars and 21 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

•  Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR), with a 12-month price target of $3.20. With a current share price of $2.79, this indicates a share price growth of 14.7% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH), indicating that the share price may rise form the close of $0.62 to the range $0.73-$0.75, on a pattern formed over 18 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week higher across the key indices as investors remain optimistic that President Donald Trump may hold back from implementing some of his tariff plans that could lead to an escalated trade war and economic slowdown in the US. The Dow Jones rose 1.42% on Monday, the S&P500 climbed 1.76% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 2.27%.

Across the European markets on Monday, markets in the region closed slightly lower as investor optimism around Trump easing tariffs faded. The STOXX 600 fell 0.13%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.17%, the French CAC dropped 0.26% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.1%.

Asia markets closed Monday’s session mixed as Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline of April 2 draws closer. South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.42%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.18%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.91% and China’s CSI index rose 0.51%.

Locally to start the week, the ASX200 seesawed between positive and negative before ending the day just 0.07% higher as a banking rally offset heavy losses among staples, tech and industrials stocks.

Investors took some profits from the supermarket giants yesterday following a strong rally for both Coles and Woolworths on Friday amid the lack of evidence of price gauging found by the ACCC in their investigation.

Synlait Milk shares tumbled over 8% on Monday after the milk producers’ latest results failed to impress investors despite the NZ-based company reporting a swing to profitability with a 105% increase in NPAT to $4.8m.

And global building materials and fibre cement company James Hardie Industries weighed on the market gains yesterday following the company announcing it has entered into an agreement to acquire US-based AZEK which is a leader in providing high-performance, low-maintenance building products and solutions. Investors fled the stock upon release of the announcement as the deal is valued $14bn, which is an expensive multiple to pay, around 23 x EBITDA compared to JHX current multiple of 12x.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.45% tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.25% higher at US$69.13/barrel, gold is down 0.4% at US$3011.82/ounce and iron ore is down 0.15% at US$102/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy US$0.62, 94.72 Japanese Yen, 48.62 British Pence, and NZ$1.09.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) from a hold to a buy and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold production and development company from $4.45 to $5.50 following the company’s announcement of the sale of its non-core Henty Gold Mine to Kaiser Reed to simplify the business, enable greater focus on the expansion and exploration of the flag ship Plutonic Gold Operation and adding a clow cost and rapid option to unlock value at the Bendigo Project.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on ARB Corporation (ASX:ARB) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 8-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $34.00 to the range of $26.25 to $27.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed a turbulent week higher on Friday as Trump, once again, signalled there would be some ‘flexibility’ with tariffs, however, he did maintain that the tariffs implemented at the April 2 deadline will be reciprocal, saying all countries that have tariffs on US goods will be taxed. The Nasdaq rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones added just 0.08%, and the S&P500 also ended the day up 0.08%. Companies are increasingly confused over the tariff implications in the US and as a result as uncertain about spend, hiring and forecasting until there is more clarity around tariff implications.

In Europe on Friday, markets in the region closed lower led by travel stocks tumbling amid London’s Heathrow Airport closure due to a fire on Friday. The STOXX 600, French CAC and the UK’s FTSE100 ended the day down 0.6%, while Germany’s DAX ended the day down 0.5%.

Across Asia markets on Friday, stocks mostly fell in the region due to ongoing uncertainty around the US economy and tariff implications. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.19%, China’s CSI index fell 1.52%, South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.23%, and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day down 0.2%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 rose 0.17% despite Wall Street’s turbulence on Thursday as market heavyweights propelled the key index to a positive finish. For the week, the ASX200 rose 1.83%

Australia’s supermarket giants posted strong gains on Friday after the ACCC released its 441-page findings of its ‘price gauging’ investigation. Investors welcomed the findings outlining minimal evidence was found of price gauging and no disciplinary action would be taken against the two key providers in Coles and Woolworths.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading week down 0.51%.
• Commodity prices took a hit late in the week last week which weighed on the local materials sector as China’s property market remains depreciated, and Trump’s tariffs continue hurting demand for critical metals like copper.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.31% higher at US$68.28/barrel, gold is down 0.75% at US$3023.65/ounce and iron ore is down 0.15% at US$102/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.62 cents, 93.69 Japanese Yen, 48.55 British Pence and NZ$1.09.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Cuscal (ASX:CCL) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $3.40 on the payments and regulated data service provider. Bell Potter’s analyst sees compound gross revenue growth of 17.7% pa driven primarily by growth in transaction revenue across all core competencies and client wins. The company also has demonstrated a track record of innovation, investment and timing with launching milestone connectivity for all mobile payments and acquiring Basiq in 2024 to expand its market presence and offering.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 109-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $6.72 to the range of $7.50 to $7.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Locally this week, the ASX200 rose 1.66% (Mon – Thurs), recovering some earlier losses. Ten of the eleven industry sectors closed in the green, while consumer staples were slightly lower. Energy stocks advanced the most, up 3.5% over the week so far. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers: 

• (0:10): the latest on Trump’s tariffs & US policy volatility 
• (0:37): fresh stimulus & economic data in Hong Kong 
• (1:00): China’s latest economic data
• (2:10): what this week’s unemployment data means for the Aussie economy
• (3:58): the best & worst performing stocks on the ASX200 this week
• (4:45): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (5:11): economic news items to watch next week. 

Wall St closed higher on Wednesday after the Fed said two rate cuts are still on the cards for 2025. The Dow Jones rose 0.92%, the S&P500 added 1.08% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.41%. The US central bank maintained the current cash rate as was widely expected at the latest meeting overnight however boosted investor sentiment by saying two rate cuts are still coming this year.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly higher led by the French CAC rising 0.7%, while the STOXX 600 added 0.26%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.34% and the UK’s FTSE 100 ended the day flat.

The APAC markets closed the midweek session mixed on turbulence in the US on Tuesday and after Japan’s central bank maintained interest rates steady at 0.5% and signalled potential impact of US President, Donald Trump’s tariffs. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.25%, South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.62%, China’s CSI index closed flat and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also ended the day flat.

The market movements locally yesterday matched the rollercoaster of sentiment around the globe right now, with the ASX bouncing between red and green before sliding in afternoon trade with the key index ending the day down 0.41%.

Materials stocks came under pressure yesterday amid a 5.1% sell-off in Mineral Resources following the cessation of haulage on its crucial Onslow iron haul road, while gold miners also slipped as traders took profits on the record gold price rally this week.

Mortgages insurer Helia Group took the biggest hit yesterday with a 15% dive after shares traded ex-dividend.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.5% higher at US$67.23/barrel, gold is up 0.51% at US$3047/ounce and iron ore is up 0.1% at US$102.42/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened overnight to buy 63.61 US cents, 94.61 Japanese Yen, 49.13 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session on the ASX the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.67% tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has upgraded the rating on Alcidion (ASX:ALC) from a hold to a buy and maintain a 12-month price target of 11cps on the healthcare IT company following a significant restructure of the business through reducing headcount and operating expenses, while also signing its largest commercial contract to date with NCIC to the value of $37.5m over 10-years.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Stockland Corp (ASX:SGP) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 5-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $4.88 to the range of $4.54 to $4.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street slipped into the red again on Tuesday with the S&P500 fighting to stay out of correction territory as it trades 8.6% below its recent record, as investors remain concerned over the impacts Trump’s tariffs will have on the US economy. The Dow Jones lost 0.62%, the S&P500 shed 1.07% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 1.71%. Tesla shares have been hit hard lately and took a further 5% tumble on Tuesday after RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target on the EV company citing rising competition in the EV space.

Over in Europe on Tuesday, markets in the region closed higher as investors assessed momentum in Germany’s historic debt reform deal, which unlocks a major stimulus package for higher defence, infrastructure and climate fund spending. The STOXX 600 rose 0.61%, Germany’s DAX added 1.03%, the French CAC gained 0.5% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.29%.

Across the APAC region overnight Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied again to a three-year high yesterday, ending the day up 2.29% as investors continue piling into tech stocks listed on the index following fresh stimulus and strong economic data out in the region. China’s CSI index rose 0.27%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.2% and South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day up 0.06%.

Locally, the ASX started the week higher before pulling back yesterday as the local market is taking strong lead from Wall Street movements amid global uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and subsequent implications of taxes imposed on good being imported into the US. 

Rising geopolitical tensions in the form of Israel launching a wave of airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday propelled the price of gold to another fresh record high as investors flock into the safe-haven asset in times of great uncertainty.

Defensive stocks in the utilities, consumer staples and healthcare sectors all outperformed yesterday, for a similar reason to gold’s rally, as investors look for investments that are mostly unaffected by a downturn in the economy.

On that note, Woolworths shares jumped over 1% yesterday after Macquarie upgraded the supermarket to an outperform rating, while former Woolworths alcohol arm, Endeavour slipped 1.6% yesterday after Goldman Sachs downgraded the alcohol retailer to neutral.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.66% tracking Wall Street’s turbulence overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.94% lower at US$66.95/barrel, gold is up 1.10% to a fresh record US$3032.60/ounce, and iron ore is down 0.52% at US$102.32/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy US$0.63, 94.99 Japanese Yen, 49.15 British Pence and 1 NZ$1.09 cents.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on REA Group (ASX:REA) from $281 to $264 and maintain a buy rating on the leading online real estate listings platform following the release of February property data including a national listings declining 8% YoY for the month. REA also guided to ‘flat-to-marginal’ increase in FY25 listings amid a slow housing market in Australia at present.