Between the Bells

Wall St started the new trading week sharply lower as investors brace for the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada, of which come into effect on Tuesday US time. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P500 lost 2.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down a sharp 3.2%. Investor hopes of a last-minute deal to prevent the tariffs from going ahead were dashed in afternoon trade after President Trump reiterated the 25% levies on imports from Mexico and Canada will go ahead from Tuesday. Companies that face a direct hit from the tariffs tumbled yesterday including Ford and General Motors.

Over in Europe on Monday, markets closed higher as defence stocks continue to surge amid renewed spend in the sector. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany’s DAX rose 2.6%, the French CAC added 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Monday, markets mostly rose as investors awaited clarity on Trump’s tariff plans. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.44%, Taiwan’s Taiex index fell 1.3% and China’s CSI index closed down just 0.04%.

Locally on Monday the ASX started the new trading month in the green with the key index posting a 0.9% rise at the closing bell and all sectors ended the day higher led by Energy stocks rising 2.02%. The positive market sentiment comes ahead of a wave of tariff implications out of the US commencing this week which is set to shake up market returns and outlook, while we are also bracing locally for the latest slew of economic data with the GDP reading out later in the week. The energy rally on Monday was amid investor outlook for the price of oil to rise when tariffs on Mexico and Canada come into effect as they are two major exporters of crude.

Embattled casino operator Star Entertainment Group shares were suspended on Monday following a trading halt after the company failed to lodge accounts to the ASX for reporting season.

Medical imaging giant Pro Medicus jumped 3.2% on Monday after the company signed yet another deal to roll out its core imaging tools. The deal worth $40m is with US radiology provider LucidHealth and will see Pro Medicus devices and systems rolled out throughout the LucidHealth network.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 1.35% following Wall Street’s tumble overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.3% lower at US$68.16/barrel, gold is up 1.11% at US$2888.53/ounce and iron ore is down 0.21% at US$106.90/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.62, 92.84 Japanese Yen, 49.13 British Pence and NZ$1.11.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and have raised the 12-month price target on the home goods giant to $6.00/share following the release of 1H25 results including some key beats in the Australian franchising division and also in the NZ operations. Single digit earnings growth across most metrics was reported and the analyst increased the 12-month price target due to multiple catalysts near-mid-term such as improving sales trends and the growing AI movement.
• And Bell Potter has slightly increased the 12-month price target on Bub’s Australia (ASX:BUB) to 15.5cps and maintain a hold rating on the infant formula producer following the release of the company’s 1H25 results including net revenue growth of 24% to $48.5m, EBITDA of $0.5m compared to a loss of $6.8m in the PCP, and outlook for net revenue target for FY25 of $102m. The analyst sees Bub’s continues to make inroads into the US however remains cognisant of the potential impact of tariffs (if any).

Over in Wall St on Friday markets closed higher to end the week following a losing month for the major averages. The Dow Jones gained 1.39%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.59% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 1.63%.

Over in Europe, the STOXX600 and Germany’s DAX closed flat on Friday, with the French CAC rising 0.1% and over in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended 0.61% higher by market close on Friday.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 fell 1.16% with all but one major sector closing in the red. Losses were led by the information technology and materials sectors which fell 2.86% and 2.47% respectively. This was offset by the communication services sector which rose by 0.24% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.59% at market open.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.84% lower at 69 US dollars and 76 cents a barrel, marking the first monthly decline since November over geopolitical tensions. 
  • Gold is trading 0.65% lower at 2856 US dollars an ounce, and iron ore is trading 0.16% lower at 106 US dollars and 90 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) and has a 12-month price target of $0.30. The speculative buy rating is maintained as AIS is a copper dominant producer with all its assets in Australia. It’s near-term outlook is highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing grades and production at the Tritton copper mine. Successful delivery offers significant upside and a strategically attractive asset in Tritton, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal in Goodman Group (ASX:GMG), indicating that the share price may fall from the close of $31.31 to the range of $23.25-$24.75, on a pattern formed over 212 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the final week of reporting season, the ASX200 declined 0.34%, as technology stocks tumbled, while utilities and financial stocks offset some of the local market gains. This reporting season, 24 companies released their financial results, with 86 beatings expectations, 83 meeting expectations and 75 missing expectations. 37 companies have been upgraded by brokers, while 42 have been downgraded. 

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:42): why Qantas continues to soar as turbulence rocks other airlines
• (1:13): Light & Wonder’s share price reaching records
• (1:55): differing investor reactions to the results of Woolworths & Coles 
• (2:56): the best & worst performing stocks & ETFs this week 
• (3:58): the most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients 
• (4:22): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall St overturned its recent red run to close higher on Wednesday as investors overlooked concerns around Trump’s tariffs and into areas of opportunity in the market. The S&P500 rose 0.01%, only just snapping a 4-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq gained 0.26% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.43%.
 Nvidia’s results out overnight boosted the AI-market darling up 3% ahead of the results release after the closing bell. Nvidia’s results once again beat expectations with sales growing 78%, revenue coming in at US$39.33bn and EPS rose to US$0.89/share. The outlook is also very strong for revenue of US$43bn in Q1 as global demand for AI drives tailwinds for the company.

European markets ended the midweek session higher amid strong corporate earnings beats across the region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.99%, Germany’s DAX rose 1.73%, the French CAC added 1.15%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.72%. Earnings from Budweiser maker AB Inbev, Adecco, and Munich Re each rallied yesterday after reporting earnings beats.

Across the APAC region on Wednesday, markets closed mixed taking lead from Wall St on Tuesday and amid key pledges out of governments in the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 3.63% led by tech stocks after the city pledged in its budget to develop itself into an AI hub. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.25%, and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.41%.

Locally on Wednesday the ASX200 fell 0.14%, weighed down by the materials sector falling 1.61%, while Real Estate stocks fell 1.3%. Energy and Financials stocks offset some of the market losses with gains of 1.3% and 0.71% respectively.

Bapcor rallied over 13% yesterday after the leading provider of aftermarket parts, accessories and services released strong first half results including strong cost reduction plans to increase cash conversion which has enabled the company to bay down debt and reinvest in growth plans this financial year to date.
 Light & Wonder also rose over 7% after the gaming company reported FY24 results including a 10% rise in revenue to a record $3.2bn, a 110% jump in net income to $336m and guided to low double-digit income growth for Q1FY25.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Thursday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.12%. 
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.16% lower at US$68.82/barrel, gold is down 0.07% at US$2916/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$107.17/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.03 US cents, 93.98 Japanese Yen, 49.89 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has slightly decreased the 12-month price target on Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) from $5.10 to $5.00 and maintain a hold rating on the online retailer following a 1H result that came in line with expectations. The slight decrease in 12-month price target is due to earnings downgrades by the analyst as Kogan’s Mighty Ape business had some transition issues post a website upgrade last year.
• Bell Potter has downgraded the price target on Woolworths (ASX:WOW) from $31.75 to $30.75 and maintain a hold rating on the leading supermarket giant after the company reported first half results below BPe on an NPAT front and provided softer near-term guidance.

As we enter into the 4th week of Reporting Season, we have seen 174 companies release results with 61 beating expectations, 62 meeting expectations and 51 missing expectations. 

In this weeks video, Grady covers:

• Domino’s (ASX:DMP): Dropped 9% after a $20m loss, impacted by cost pressures and store closures
• Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG): Plunged 28% as project delays and weak insurance claims hit earnings
• Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): Jumped 15% on record first-half results, with cash earnings up 120% and US growth surging
• Woodside (ASX:WDS): NPAT doubled to $3.6bn, but underlying profit slipped 14% on weaker oil and gas prices.

Over in the US on Tuesday, Wall St closed mostly lower following the release of the most recent consumer confidence survey that came in much weaker than expected. The S&P500 fell 0.47% for its fourth consecutive losing session while the Nasdaq declined 1.35%, but the Dow Jones ended the session up 0.37%. Escalating trade tensions are also weighing on investor sentiment and contributing to market uncertainty as investors weigh up the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada which are set to be imposed next week.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed in the region as corporate earnings and defence spend in the region remain a key focus for investors. The STOXX 600 rose 0.15%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.13%, the French CAC fell 0.49%, and in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.11%.

Across the APAC region on Tuesday, markets closed lower as investors await the full impact of Trump’s tariffs on the region. Japan’s Nikkei lost 1%, South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.57% after South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut rates in a bid to stimulate the slowing economy, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.32%.

The local market reversed Monday’s gain to close 0.68% lower on Tuesday as a sharp sell-off in tech and discretionary stocks offset gains among utilities and staples stock. Investors have been very reactive to reporting season updates whilst also keeping an eye on valuations and movements out of the US, especially on the tariffs front.

We had a slew of corporate results out yesterday that sparked mixed reactions among investors with sharp rises and falls reported in key share prices. Domino’s Pizza shares tumbled over 10% after the leading global pizza maker swung to a loss in the first half amid $116m in one-off store closure related costs due to the company closing 205 loss-making stores.

Johns Lyng Group was the worst performer yesterday with shedding over a quarter of its value as the share price plummeted over 30% after the company downgraded group earnings guidance. The building and restoration services provider across Aus and the US faced a challenging operating environment especially in Australia with benign weather conditions reducing the volume of insurance claims, while the US had project commencement delays impacting performance.

And on the other hand, 2024 market darling Zip Co soared 14% yesterday on impressive 1H results including total transaction value up 23.9% to $6.2bn, lower bad debts, cash earnings more than doubling, increased growth in the US market and the company launched into the personal loans market in January.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the midweek session on the ASX, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.30% tracking Wall Street’s lower session overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.7% lower at US$68.83/barrel, gold is down 1.58% at US$2903/ounce and iron ore is up 0.06% at US$107.19/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.63, 94.39 Japanese Yen, 50.16 British Pence and 1 NZ$1.11 cents.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has slightly decreased the 12-month price target on Adairs (ASX:ADH) from $2.85 to $2.65 but maintain a buy rating on the leading furniture retailer following the release of the company’s first half results including revenue growth of 6.6% which was a good improvement from the last trading update however, the company’s Focus on Furniture brand continues to weigh on results.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Praemium (ASX:PPS) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $0.78 to the range of $0.73 to $0.75 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week lower, extending on Friday’s sharp inflation-data driven sell-off as many of the major tech companies come under pressure amid concerns over weakness in data centre spend and overvaluation in the space. The S&P500 lost 0.5% on Monday, the Nasdaq fell 1.21% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.08%. Trump tariffs are also weighing on investor sentiment at present after Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico will ‘go forward’ after the monthlong postponement ends next week.

In Europe overnight, markets mostly fell as investors reacted to the results of the German federal election. The STOXX 600 fell 0.08%, Germany’s DAX rose 0.62%, the French CAC lost 0.78% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.

Shares in leading global on-demand food delivery company Just Eat Takeaway soared 54% after tech investor Prosus announced its plans to acquire the company in a deal worth $4.3bn.

Across the APAC region on Monday markets mostly fell taking lead from Wall Street’s worst session of the year last Friday after fresh inflation data in the US pointed to a slowing economy and sticky inflation. China’s CSI index fell 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.58%, South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.35% and Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

Locally to start the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.14% rise at the closing bell as strong gains for utilities and financial stocks more than offset the 6.84% tumble in tech stocks.

Logistics software solutions provider WiseTech Global was the driver of the tech plummet yesterday as shares in the company dived 20.09% following news that four directors on the company’s board quit over founder Richard White’s ongoing role with the company.

NIB Holdings on the other hand rose 12.5% after the company reaffirmed guidance for FY25 profits between the range of $235 - $250m as it focuses on a return to profitability for its New Zealand business.

And EVT shares posted the greatest gain on the market yesterday with a rise of 12.88% after the property developer and operator posted a strong first half result including profits up 8.3% YoY which beat estimates by 83% driven by the company’s hotel division achieving record earnings during the period.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down a sharp 0.76% tracking Wall Street’s sell-off overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.68% higher at US$70.88/barrel, gold is up 0.61% at US$2952/ounce and iron ore is up 0.12% at US$107.13/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy US$0.63, 95.04 Japanese Yen, 50.03 British Pence and NZ$1.11.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Domain (ASX:DHG) following the announcement of US property giant CoStar making a $2.7bn takeover bid for the real estate platform. Nine Entertainment Co has a 60% controlling stake in Domain which remains a block for the acquisition, but Bell Potter’s analyst sees the takeover bid as attractive.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Rural Funds Group (ASX:RFF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 33-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.79 to the range of $1.88 to $1.90 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

As we enter the final week of reporting season, the Australian market is set to open in the red, following the Dow Jones dropping 700 points on Friday in the US, the worst day for the Dow this year so far. This comes from the release of soft US data, including a decline in consumer sentiment, home sales dropping more than expected and a five-year inflation outlook survey higher-than-expected. The economic data sparked concerns among US investors over a slowing economy and sticky inflation. Bank stocks were sold off and losses advanced toward the close on Friday, amid news headlines of additional tariffs and other government policies moving markets. 

The Dow Jones dropped 1.67%, bringing its two-day losses to 1,200 points. The S&P500 dropped 1.71%, the second negative session for the index after closing at a record on Wednesday. And the tech- heavy Nasdaq declined by over 2%. 

Australian shares declined on Friday, down 0.32% with consumer discretionary stocks weighing down on the market the most, while the materials sector advanced. 

What to watch today:

• As we enter the final week of reporting season, the Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a drop of 0.77% at the open this morning, following US equities. 
• In commodities, 
  • Crude oil has dropped 2.87%, trading at US$70.40 per barrel, as concerns over Russian supply disruptions provided support while uncertainty loomed over a potential Ukraine peace deal. 
  • Gold is trading slightly lower at US$2,934 an ounce, remaining close to its record high from the previous session at US$2,950. Investors moved to the safe haven metal amid rising global uncertainties.
  • And iron ore is trading higher at US$107.13 per tonne, its highest in four months amid strong demand expectations from major consumers. 
• Over 20 listed companies are set to report their earnings results today, including Adairs (ASX:ADH), APA Group (ASX:APA), Lovisa (ASX:LOV), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) and Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG), just to name a few. 
• Stocks going ex-dividend today include Hansen Technologies Limited (ASX:HSN), Santos (ASX:STO) and Vicinity Centres (ASX:VCX). Remember that this often sees share prices fall, as investors take their profits. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter have upgraded their recommendation on Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) from a Hold to a Buy after the pharmaceutical group pre-released FY24 revenues. Bell Potter’s 12- month price target is amended from $21.60 to $36.00, and at TLX’s current share price of $30.12, this implies just over 19% share price growth in a year. 
• Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $7.34 to the range of $5.20 - $5.70 over 67 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

With reporting season nearing its end, 84 companies have released results. Of these, 30 exceeded expectations, 27 met them, and 27 fell short. Wesfarmers and Universal Stores were among the companies surpassing expectations this week, while Super Retail Group was among those that missed. Also check out how the ASX performed this week.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers: 

• (0:38): WesCEF driving Wesfarmers’ results
• (1:40): the excellent results from Universal Stores 
• (2:27): inflationary pressures impacting Super Retail Group 
• (3:36) the dividend focus in February’s earnings season
• (5:19): how the ASX200 performed this week so far 
• (6:17): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:47): economic news items to watch out for.

Wall St closed higher overnight as the S&P closed at a record for the second day in a row. The Dow Jones gained 0.16%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.07% and the S&P500 jumped 0.24%.

Over in Europe, markets plummeted on Wednesday as earnings season results disappoint investors. The STOXX600 fell 0.9%, pulling from the all time high set in Tuesday’s trading session. Germany’s DAX dropped 1.8%, the French CAC lost 0.62% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed Wednesday’s trading session 1.8% in the red.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 0.73% lower with the majority of sectors closing down. Losses were led by the energy and financial sectors which dropped by 2.35% and 2.01% respectively. This was offset by the utilities sector which gained 0.84% by market close.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.45% at market open this morning.
• In terms of economic news today, Australian unemployment data for January will be released with a forecast of 4%, the same as its previous result.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 0.63% higher at 72 US dollars and 25 cents a barrel, gold is trading flat at 2934 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.08% lower at 106 US dollars and 74 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Ceder Woods Properties (ASX:CWP) with a 12-month price target of $7.20. With a current share price of $5.53, this indicates a share price growth of 25.2% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $2.86 to the range of $3.30-$3.40 on a pattern formed over 105 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.