Between the Bells

Wall St closed higher to start the trading week, posting back to back session gains following recent tariff policy news which has softened the market. The Dow Jones rose by 0.85%, the S&P500 jumped 0.65% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied by 0.31%.

Over in Europe, markets followed the US and closed higher to start the trading week on a positive note. The STOXX600 closed 0.79% higher with all but one major sector closing in the green. Germany’s DAX jumped 0.73%, the French CAC climbed 0.56% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 ended Monday’s trading session 0.73% in the green.

Locally yesterday, the Australian share market rose by 0.83% with the majority of sectors closing in the green. Gains were led by the materials and energy sectors which rose by 1.97% and 1.72% respectively. This was offset by the health sector which fell by 0.27% by market close.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.67% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 0.45% higher at 67 US dollars and 48 cents a barrel, gold is trading 0.6% higher at 3001 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.68% higher at 102 US dollars and 85 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Nufarm Ltd (ASX:NUF) with a 12-month price target of $4.75. With a current share price of $3.84, this indicates a share price growth of 23.7% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $15.69 to the range of $19.20-$20, on a pattern formed over 26 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

What a week it was on markets last week as Trump tariffs and global trade war concerns spread fear throughout global markets leading to a mass sell off in equities and the price of safe-haven gold topping US$3000/ounce for the first time ever.

Wall Street reversed some of last week’s losses to close higher across the key indices on Friday as news out of the Whitehouse around tariffs eased on Friday which prompted investors to reconsider buying into equities following days of sharp selloffs. The Dow Jones rose 1.65% on Friday, the S&P500 added 2.13% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 2.61%. The see-saw of tariffs being on, and off Trump’s policy front has spooked markets over the last week as investors shift portfolios into safe-haven assets to manage the current high volatility among equities and global markets.

In Europe on Friday markets closed higher after German lawmakers came closer to agreeing on reforming the country’s debt-brake rule. The STOXX 600 rose 1.14%, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.65%, the French CAC added 1.05%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.13%.

Across the APAC region last week, markets mostly rose on Friday despite Wall Street’s tumble on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.72%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.12%, China’s CSI index gained 2.43% but South Korea’s Kospi Index ended the day down 0.28%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 recovered some ground with a 0.52% rise at the closing bell, but the key index posted a 2% fall for the week last week. Rate sensitive sectors of tech and consumer discretionary took the biggest hits last week as consumers fear inflation in the U.S. and locally can rebound as a result of Trump’s tariffs.

What to watch locally today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session on the ASX, the SPI futures are anticipating the local market will open the new trading week up 1.09% tracking Wall Street’s rise on Friday.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is up 0.95% at US$67.18/barrel, gold is up 2.47% at US$2983/ounce and iron ore is up 0.7% at US$102.85/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly strengthened to buy US$0.63, 94.10 Japanese Yen, 48.64 British Pence and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Seek (ASX:SEK) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $27.00 with the view that the company’s market leading portfolio is centralised for scaling. Seek is the largest marketplace in Australia for job advertisements and the analyst can see potential ad volumes increasing as macro tailwinds are driven by the RBA’s cutting cycle.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on South32 (ASX:S32) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 70-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.53 to the range of $2.96 to $3.06 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

How have markets reacted to the US tariffs?

News headlines around the US saw the Australian market decline over 2% Monday to Thursday this week, with information technology and industrials down the most. The only two industry sections in the green over this week so far, are utilities up 2% and energy up 1.05%. 

Wall St closed mixed overnight following the release of a softer than expected inflation report. The Dow Jones fell by 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose by nearly half a percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.22%.

Core inflation data month was released overnight coming in at 0.2%, lower than the consensus and forecast of 0.3% and its previous result of 0.4%.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher despite the announcement by the European Union of an introduction of tariffs on a variety of US imports. The STOXX600 rose by 0.81%, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.56%, the French CAC rallied 0.59% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 ended Wednesday’s trading session higher by 0.53%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell by 1.32% with all but one major sector closing in the red. Losses were led by the consumer discretionary and industrial sectors which lost 2.02% and 1.88% respectively. This was slightly offset by the utilities sector which rose by just 0.02%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.23% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 2.17% higher at 67 US dollars and 69 cents a barrel as easing inflation boosted market sentiment.
  • Gold is trading 0.62% higher at 2933 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.06% higher at 101 US dollars and 5 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) with a 12-month price target of $1.20. With a current share price of $0.59, this indicates a share price growth greater than 100%, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Bell Potter also maintains a buy rating on Elders (ASX:ELD) with a 12-month price target of $9.40. At a current share price of $6.91, this indicates a share price growth of 36% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.

Wall St closed lower overnight as the Dow Jones loses more than 450 points. The S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.18% and the Dow Jones fell by over 1%.

The S&P 500 was in the green at one point of the trading session until Donald Trump declared that Canadian steel and aluminum duties would double from 25% to 50%.

Over in Europe, markets followed the US and closed lower as trade tensions between the US and Canada escalate. The STOXX600 fell by 1.7%, led by autos which fell by 2.13%.  Germany’s DAX closed 1.29% lower, the French CAC lost 1.31% down and over in the UK, the FTSE100 ended Tuesday’s trading session 1.21% in the red.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell by 0.91% with the majority of sectors closing in the red. Losses were led by the information technology and industrial sectors which fell by 3.95% and 1.98% respectively. This was offset by the utilities sector which gained 1.37% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower with the SPI futures predicting a fall of 0.95% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 0.89% higher at 66 US dollars and 62 cents, gold is trading 1.09% higher at 2915 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.3% lower at 100 US dollars and 99 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) and has a 12-month price target of $5. With a current share price of $2.83, this indicates a share price growth of 76.7%, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AGL Energy (ASX:AGL), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $10.13 to the range of $12.20-$12.60, on a pattern formed over 19 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Our local market started the week retrieving earlier losses, gaining 0.18% yesterday, as energy, materials and utilities advanced. Polynovo (ASX:PNV) rebounded, leading the market up 4.6% at the close, while Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) closely followed. On the other hand, Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG) tumbled over 12% yesterday following the announcement that JP Morgan is now a substantial holder. Overnight, the 3- week market sell off in the US equities intensified as the key benchmarks continue to close in the red. The Dow Jones down nearly 900 points, the S&P500 down 2.7%, while the Nasdaq had its worst session since 2022, closing 4% lower. Investors are cautious amid fears that that uncertainty around tariff policy may tip the economy into a recession. 

What to watch locally today:

• Following US equities, the Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a drop of 0.88%.
• In commodities,
  • Crude Oil is down 1.7% trading at US$65.90, nearing a 6- month low. 
  • Gold is down 0.78% at US$2,889 an ounce but remained near record highs as trade tensions continued to shape market sentiment, with investors closely watching U.S. inflation data due later this week for insights into the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
  • While iron ore is up slightly, trading at US$101.29.
• And the Aussie dollar is buying US$0.63, 49 British pence, 92.43 Japanese Yen and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a BUY rating on AMA Group (ASX:AMA) after the accident repair group reported a good result for the first half of FY25 last month. AMA also reiterated its FY25 guidance. There is no change to Bell Potter’s price target of $0.08 which was updated last month following the release of the company’s financial results. The price target is a more than 50% premium  to the share price.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in ClearView Wealth (ASX:CVW) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $0.47 to the range of $0.55 - $0.57 over 7 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

On Wall Street on Friday markets ended the week higher in what was the worst week the S&P 500 has had since September. The Dow Jones rose over half a percent, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.71% and the S&P500 jumped 0.56%.

A US jobs data report was released on Friday, falling below expectations to 151,000 jobs in February, well below the consensus of 170,000 jobs predicted by economists.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower on Friday following investor reactions to tariff implementation over in the US. The STOXX600 fell 0.46%, it’s first losing session of the year. Germany’s DAX dropped 1.75%, the French CAC lost 0.94% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed 0.03% lower.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 closed 1.81% lower with all but one major sector closing in the red. Losses were led by the information technology and real estate sectors which fell by 3.04% and 3% respectively. This was offset by the consumer staples sector which gained 0.35% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures predicting a rise of 0.87% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading over 1% higher at 67 US dollars and 4 cents a barrel as Donald Trump threatened Russia with sanctions if they fail to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.
  • Gold is trading slightly higher by 0.04% at 2911 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.05% higher at 101 US dollars and 29 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Ltd (ASX:SX2) with a current share price of $3.60. Bell Potter has set a 12-month price target of $4.80, indicating a share price growth of 33.3%, hence the speculative buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Westpac Banking (ASX:WBC), indicating that the stock price may fall from a close of $30.57 to the range of $26-$26.90 on a pattern formed over 109 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Market movements this week were characterised by turbulence in US equities. The ASX200 declined 0.95% Monday to Thursday, with the energy sector weighing down on the market the most, followed by consumer staples and utilities. 

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:45): why defensive stocks have outperformed 
• (2:11): shifts in global currency markets
• (2:29): the surge in optimism surrounding the Euro
• (3:16): how the ASX200 performed this week so far 
• (3:44): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (4:08): economic news items to watch out for. 

Wall St closed higher overnight following back-to-back losses after an exemption was given to automakers from Donald Trump’s tariffs, giving investors hope that more concessions will be made. The Dow Jones rose 1,14%, the S&P500 jumped 1.12% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed Wednesday’s trading session 1.46% higher.

A one-month delay on tariffs were given to automakers whose cars comply with the Unites States-Mexico-Canada agreement. Stellantis rose by 10%, whilst Ford and General Motors both gained 5% and 8% respectively.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher as investors have increased optimism that Donald Trump’s tariffs could be relaxed. The STOXX600 rose by 0.91% with autos rising by 2.4%. This was offset by the utilities and food and beverage stocks which ended the day in negative territory. Germany’s DAX soared 3.38%, the French CAC rallied 1.56% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 fell slightly by 0.04%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell by 0.69% with the vast majority of major sectors closing in the red. Losses were led by the consumer staples and energy sectors which fell 3.56% and 1.68% respectively. This was offset by the utilities sector which rose by 0.11% by market close.

GDP growth rate data quarter on quarter was released yesterday coming in at a rise of 0.6%, higher than the consensus of 0.5% and the previous result of 0.3%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.21% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 2.72% lower at 66 US dollars 40 cents a barrel as OPEC+ supply increases and continued geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment.
  • Gold is trading 0.17% higher at 2919 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.79% higher at 101 US dollars and 61 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a speculative buy rating on Alpha HPA Ltd (ASX:A4N) and has a 12-month share price of $2. With a current share price of $0.87, this indicates a share price growth of 129% over the next 12-months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX:AIA), indicating that the share price may fall from the close of $7.30 to the range of $6.60-$6.70, on a pattern formed over 7 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US overnight, Wall Street extended its losing run as fresh tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, US time. The Dow Jones fell by 1.55%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.35% and the S&P500 ended the day 1.22% lower. Investors fear the global trade will impact the health of the US economy with retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico in motion already.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as global investors brace for impact on the ongoing tariff war. The STOXX600 closed over 2.14% in the red, it’s biggest daily drop since August last year. Germany’s DAX fell 3.54%, the French CAC lost 1.85% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 closed Tuesday’s trading session down 3.54%.

The local market was sold off broadly yesterday as investor fears of Trump tariff implications spread through the ASX. The key index fell 0.58% as every sector aside from healthcare stocks ended the day in the red, with energy stocks taking the biggest hit with a more than 3% loss.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.97% at market open this morning.
• In terms of economic news, GDP growth rate data will be released for Quarter 4 with a consensus and forecast of a 0.5% increase, 0.2% more than its previous result.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.85% lower at 67 US dollars and 75 cents a barrel, gold is trading up 0.82% at 2914 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 5.7% lower at 100 US dollars and 81 cents a tonne following the announcement of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China now taking effect.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Develop Global (ASX:DVP) and has a 12-month price target of $4. With a current share price of $2.93, this indicates a share price growth of 36.5% over the next 12 months, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on NAB (ASX:NAB), indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $35.05 to the range of $28.50-$29.75 on a pattern formed over 8 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.