Between the Bells

In the U.S. overnight the S&P and Nasdaq reset their respective record highs while the Dow Jones also closed higher as investors welcomed the latest CPI reading which came in tamer than expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.13%, the Nasdaq added 1.4% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 1.1%. The US CPI reading rose 2.7% on an annualised basis in July which fell short of economists’ estimates of a 2.8% rise, while core CPI rose 3.1% which slightly beat expectations. The data indicates Trump’s tariffs are having a lower impact than expected on inflation and supports the case for the Fed to consider a rate cut in the near future.

In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly higher in the region after US inflation accelerated less than expected. The STOXX 600 rose 0.24% on Tuesday while the French CAC added 0.8% and the UK’s FTSE100 climbed 0.22%, but Germany’s DAX fell 0.13%.
Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets in the region closed mostly higher after a tariff truce was called between the US and China. Japan’s Nikkei hit a record high, ending the day up 2.15%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.25% and China’s CSI index ended the day up 0.52%.

The local market started the new trading week higher with a 0.41% rise on Tuesday, following the RBA’s 0.25% or 25-bps rate cut yesterday and on the back of key catalysts in the earnings and materials spaces over the last few sessions.

The RBA’s rate cut was expected and the board said ‘with underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate’ but there was no discussion of a larger rate cut as Australia’s central bank takes a more conservative approach to the rate journey amid extensive macro factors influencing our inflation journey.

On the reporting season calendar yesterday we saw shares in geolocation tracking services and hardware company Life360 (ASX:360) soar 9% after the company released Q2 and H1 results that topped expectations including a 36% jump in both revenue and annualised monthly revenue.

While at the other end of the market Seven Group (ASX:SGH) tumbled 9% following the release of FY25 results including revenue up just 1% while low to mid-single-digit EBIT growth is expected as guided to by management which will fall below that of the 8% delivered in FY25.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.19% lower at US$63.20/barrel, gold is up 0.2% at US$3348/ounce and iron ore is up 0.73% at US$101.96/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.31 US cents, 96.47 Japanese Yen, 48.20 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.16%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on SGH (ASX:SGH) from $54 to $51 and maintain a hold rating on the diversified company following the release of the company’s results as the analyst sees the company is facing short-term cyclical headwinds in construction markets, offsetting healthy operating conditions in mining markets.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 7-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $6.94 to the range of $6.59-$6.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities closed in the red overnight ahead of the July inflation report. The Dow Jones closed 0.45% lower, the S&P500 declined 0.25% and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%.

European markets were mostly lower. The German DAX dropped 0.34%, France’s CAC down 0.57%, while the FT100 gained 0.37% and the STOXX600 saw little change, down just 0.06%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX advanced 0.43% with materials and consumer staples in the lead, while consumer discretionary stocks and tech declined the most.

What to watch today:

• The SPI futures are suggesting the Australian market will drop 0.15% at the open this morning, following Wall Street overnight.
• In economic data today, the RBA will announce its next interest rate decision. Its highly expected the Central Bank will announce a 25 basis point cut.
• Companies reporting their earnings results today include Life360 (ASX:360), Computershare (ASX:CPU), Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) and SGH (ASX:SGH) just to name a few.
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil is up 0.45% to US$64.16 per barrel after last week’s heavy drop, following President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war, easing fears of disrupted Russian supply.
  • The safe haven gold dropped 1.54% currently trading at US$3,346.93 an ounce after Trump announced that the metal would not face tariffs, easing concerns of a share increase in gold import costs.
  • And iron ore is in the green up 0.73% at US$101.96, so keep watch of iron ore miners today.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Buy rating on JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) and has reduced their price target to $119. At the current share price of $107.83 this implies 10.4% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $18.68 to the range of $13.70 to $14.60 over 28 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street rallied on Friday following a strong week of earnings results indicating company and economic resilience in the wake of President Trump’s tariffs. The Nasdaq closed at a record high, ending the day up 0.98% to 21,450 points, while the S&P 500 added 0.78% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.47%. For the week the major averages each posted notable gains with the S&P 500 rising 2.4%, the Dow Jones climbing 1.4% and the Nasdaq posted a strong 3.9%. Apple shares boosted markets on Friday with a 13% surge after announcing plans to spend US$600bn over 4-years to appease President Trump’s push to manufacture in the U.S.

In Europe on Friday markets closed higher on Friday on reports the U.S. and Russia plan to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE100 each closed flat, and the French CAC ended the day up 0.4%.

Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mostly lower with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling 0.89%, while China’s CSI index lost 0.24%, and South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.55%, while Japan’s Nikkei ended the day up 1.85%.

Locally on Friday the ASX 200 posted a 0.27% loss as a sharp selloff in financials and healthcare stocks weighed on the key index. For the week though the key index managed to post a 1.7% gain ahead of the expected rate cut announcement out of the RBA this week. Block  (ASX:XYZ) soared 7.5% on Friday after posting increased spending activity on After-pay which lifted profit and growth over Q2, while Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) shares also soared 8.6% after its ANZ business saw a 7.3% rise in H2 sales despite a depleted consumer spend environment.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.83% lower at US$63.35/barrel, gold is up 0.06% at US$3397/ounce and iron ore is up 0.01% at US$101.22/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.25 US cents, 96.33 Japanese yen, 48.52 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day up 0.06%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) from a hold to a sell following the release of the company’s FY25 result preview including the anticipation of weaker 2H profitability, and current overvaluation of the stock trading on a 23.8x FY26 PE. MND trades at a 55% premium to Industrial Services peers and is forecast to deliver the lowest FY26 earnings growth in the peer group.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Kelly Partners Group (ASX:KPG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 20-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $10.34 to the range of $9.65 to $9.85 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US overnight, all three major benchmarks rallied after President Donald Trump announced a steep new tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips. That is, a 100% tariff on imported chips, with the exception for companies that are building in the US. The Dow Jones gained 0.18%, the S&P500 gained 0.73% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.21% at the close.

In European, Swiss stocks declined after their President and economic minister met with US government officials, with the aim of lowering the 39% tariffs imposed by the US.

While the STOXX600 closed 0.06% lower, the German DAX was just 0.33%, France’s CAC up 0.24% and the FTSE100 up 0.24%.

Locally yesterday, the Australian market gained 0.84%, with 10 of the 11 industry sectors in the green. The market was led by energy and materials stocks.

For today’s trading session, the SPI futures are suggesting a 0.31% drop at the open this morning, despite markets rallying overnight.

What to watch today:

• Balance of trade data for June will be released at 12:30pm.
• And keep watch of the share price movements of companies reporting their earnings results today, including AMP Group (ASX:AMP), AVITA Medical (ASX:AVH), Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN), Light and Wonder (ASX:LNW) and QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE).
• In commodities,
  • Crude oil has dropped 1.32%, trading at US$64.30 per barrel, marking a fifth straight decline and hitting a fresh six-week low.
  • Gold is slightly lower down 0.3% at US$3,371.13
  • And iron ore is lower 0.43% at US$100.92 per tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Perpetual (ASX:PPT) and have increased their price target from $22.80 and $23.00. At the current share price of $21.16, this implies 8.7% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS), indicating that the stock price may rise form the close of $2.79 to the range of $3.45 to $3.65 over 46 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US today so far, Wall St closed lower as investors digested weak economic data against the latest tariff threats out of President Trump. ISM services index data flatlined for July adding to stagflation concerns in the US while stocks also came under pressure after Trump told CNBC that tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals are coming soon. The S&P 500 ended the day down 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.65% and the Dow Jones ended the session down 0.14%.

In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly higher despite President Trump saying he will unveil new tariffs in the near future. The STOXX 600 rose 0.1%, Germany’s DAX added 0.4%, the French CAC fell 0.1% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.1%.
Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed higher led by South Korea’s Kospi index adding 1.6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.92%, China’s CSI index added 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei ended the day up 0.64%.

The local market started the new trading week in the green with a 1.23% surge on Tuesday as all sectors ended the day in positive territory following strength on Wall St on Monday night. Discretionary and financials were the best performing sectors with gains of 1.81% and 1.49% respectively, while staples managed the lowest gain with 0.34%.

Australian consumer confidence rose to 90.6 points, the highest since May 2022, following easing inflation data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The ANZ-Roy Morgan index saw significant improvements in both current and future financial conditions, with a 0.25% rate reduction anticipated this month.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) plunged over 8% after it flagged higher operating expenses in the first half of the fiscal year to be around 36% of revenue for 1H25.

Austal (ASX:ASB) added over 7.5% as it finalised its agreement with the federal government to become the country’s leading defence shipbuilder. The company also impressed investors with a guidance update for FY25 with the new guidance expectation for EBIT of no less than $100m for the 12-months, higher than the previous guidance of no less than $80m.

And Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) rocketed 43% on Tuesday after announcing it has secured an order for a drone defence capability based on a new type of high-power laser, to the value of $125m (71.4million euros) from a European NATO Member State. The order is a world first export order for a 100-kilowatt class laser defence system.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.66% lower at US$65.20/barrel, gold is up 0.16% at US$3379/ounce and iron ore is up 1.21% at US$100.77/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.72 US cents, 95.56 Japanese Yen, 48.62 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.
• Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading day up 0.13.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has significantly increased the 12-month price target on Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) from $3.75 to $5.00 and maintain a buy rating on the defence manufacturer after the company secured its latest order valued at 71.4m euro. The new laser counter-drone capability was developed by EOS to address the urgent market need and emerging strategic requirement to defend against drone swarm attacks at an economical cost.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 34-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $10.00 to the range of $10.45 to $10.55 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower across the major averages on Friday as investors assessed signals of a weakening economy against Trump’s modified tariffs imposed from August 1. The Dow Jones lost 1.23% on Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 2.24%.

The all-important July jobs report came in weaker-than-expected with an expansion of just 73,000 in nonfarm payrolls for the month, well short of the 100,000 economists were expecting signalling economic weakness at a time Trump’s latest tariffs were imposed.
In Europe on Friday markets closed lower after Trump’s latest slew of tariffs came into effect despite the UK and EU having already negotiated trade deals. The STOXX 600 fell 2.7% on Friday while Germany’s DAX lost 2.66%, the French CAC ended the day down 2.91%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 closed Friday’s session down 0.7%.

Across the Asia region on Friday markets also closed lower after Trump modified his tariffs on the region. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.07%, China’s CSI index declined 0.51% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down a sharp 3.88%.

Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.9% loss to end a solid trading week as investor sentiment was dented by Trump’s latest tariff moves on copper and key trade partners, and investors reassessed positions to start the new month ahead of key earnings results updates and as the market hovers around all-time highs.

Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) tanked over 13% on Friday after the embattled casino operator’s sale of its Queen’s Wharf precinct to its Hong-Kong based JV partner collapsed.

Sleep apnoea treatment leader ResMed (ASX:RMD) rallied over 1% on Friday after posting another quarter of strong results including double digit revenue growth and higher-than-expected margin expansion in the latest quarter.

What to watch today:

• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.72 US cents, 95.29 Japanese yen, 48.70 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.
• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.4%.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) with a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $2.00 as the analyst believes the company is a great business but is overpriced. 2H25 earnings are also expected to be weaker (relative to 1H25) as is the normal seasonal trend. We expect a convergence on consensus earnings for FY26 following FY25 reporting in August.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Mader Group (ASX:MAD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $7.15 to the range of $5.70 to $6.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Reporting season is here, and Rio Tinto’s (ASX:RIO) mixed results have put materials stocks in focus. While iron ore remains under pressure from weak prices, growing momentum in copper and lithium point to an upside in green energy linked commodities, and shape a more positive outlook for the sector generally in FY26.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:38): Rio Tinto’s results and what they mean
• (2:08): results from the broader iron ore sector
• (3:21): Pilbara’s results and the outlook for lithium
• (3:39): how the market performed this week so far
• (5:02): the most traded stocks and ETFs this week
• (6:20): economic news items to look out for.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 snapped its six-day winning streak to close lower. Real Estate was the best-performing segment, up 1.7%, supported by lower bond yields with the 10-year Treasury yield down 9 basis points as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicated a slowing US labour market.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed won’t be cutting rates yet, as the central bank assesses the impact of the higher tariffs on inflation.US equities closed mixed overnight. The S&P500 gave up earlier gains to close 0.12% in the red. The Dow Jones also closed in the red, losing 170 points or 0.38%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.15%. This morning, S&P500 futures rose after quarterly updates from Microsoft and Meta beat expectations.

European markets were mostly in the green. Germany’s DAX up 0.19%, France’s CAC up 0.06%. The FTSE100 was flat, just 0.01% in the green, while the STOXX600 closed just 0.02% in the red.

 What to watch today:

• The Australian market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.24% drop at the open this morning.
• Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) shares will be on watch this morning as the mining giant just released its half year results. With weakness in iron ore, RIO reported a slight increase in consolidated sales revenue to US$26.87 billion, however also reported a 16% drop in underlying earnings to US$4.8 billion. This led to the miner cutting its interim dividend by 16% to US$1.48 per share. Its NYSE listed shares tumbled 4.5% overnight, so keep watch of RIO today.
• Looking at commodities price movements overnight,
   
  • Crude oil has advanced 1.5%, current trading at US$70.27 per barrel, holding at a five-week high, supported by supply concerns after President Donald Trump pressured Russia with a shortened timeline to end the conflict in Ukraine. 
  • The price of gold has fallen 1.4% to US$3,278.74 an ounce, hitting one-month low, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25% - 4.5%. 
  • Iron ore is steady at US$99.07 per tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain a Buy rating on Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) with a $2.00 price target. The current share price is $1.73, implying 16% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal in Appen (ASX:APX) indicating that the stock price may fall from the close of $0.95 to the range of $0.82 - $0.86, over 23 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower on Tuesday as Wall St awaits for the Federal Reserve interest date decision. The Dow Jones fell 0.46%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% and the tech heavy Nasdaq closed 0.38% lower.

Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 closed 0.29% higher, Germany’s DAX rose by just over 1%, the French CAC gained 0.72% and over in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended Tuesdays trading session 0.6% in the green.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed Tuesday’s session out 0.08% higher with most major sectors closing positive. Gains were led by the energy and industrial sectors which jumped by 0.65% and 0.33% respectively. This was offset by the real estate sector which fell by 0.44% by market close.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open slightly lower with the SPI futures predicting a fall of 0.08% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 4.03% higher at 69 US dollars and 40 cents a barrel. 
  • Gold is trading 0.34% higher at 3326 US dollars an ounce
  • And iron ore is trading 0.31% higher at 98 US dollars and 98 cents a tonne.

Trading Idea:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) from 90cps to $1.05 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the lithium producer following the release of the company’s Q4 trading update including production and sales of lithium exceeding Bell Potter expectations and the company finished the quarter with cash of $156m.

Wall Street started the new trading week almost flat as traders looked past the EU-US trade deal that was announced and focused more on the upcoming Fed interest rate decision. The S&P500 rose just 0.02% to another fresh record high while the Dow Jones fell 0.14% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.33% also setting a fresh record. A trade deal has been reached between the US and EU which will see 15% tariffs on all exports from the EU bound for the US.

In Europe overnight markets closed mostly lower as the trade deal between the US and EU failed to raise investor confidence levels. The STOXX 600 fell 0.23%, Germany’s DAX fell 1.02%, the French CAC declined 0.43% and, over in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.43%.  

Locally on Monday the ASX 200 see-sawed throughout the first trading session of the new week before closing the day up 0.36% as investors took confidence from the S&P500 record run of late and ahead of key earnings results coming out over the coming weeks.

Uranium producer Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) tanked over 40% after the company released a fourth quarter performance update for FY25. At first glance the results looked very strong with an 18% increase in drummed uranium from the prior quarter, FY25 production totalling 872,607 pounds and second half FY25 C1 cost from drummed uranium of $36/pound. Looking deeper into the company’s announcements out yesterday though, investors likely fled the stock after the FY26 Honeymoon mine guidance was issued including increased cash costs, and potential challenges now identified that may arise.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures predicting a fall of 0.7% at market open this morning
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.68% higher at 66 US dollars and 91 cents a barrel, gold is down 0.6% at 3317 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is down 0.03% at 98 US dollars and 55 cents a tonne.

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter has slightly reduced the 12-month price target on Step One Clothing (ASX:STP) from $1.30 to $1.25 and maintains a buy rating on the online retailer of underwear and innerwear. The analyst has reduced the price target by 4% due to Bell Potter’s earnings revision outlook factoring in a delayed recovery in the consumer spend environment.