In this episode of Bionic Planet, we finally catch up with Michael Greene — the carbon developer branded a "land grabber of epic proportions" in The Washington Post, and now at the center of an unfolding saga that feels more like a political thriller than a conservation story.

When Greene began building carbon projects in the Brazilian Amazon, he didn't expect to end up battling organized crime, corrupt officials, and a $220 million land grab. But that's exactly where the trail has led.

You'll hear how a businessman who thought he was protecting forests found himself targeted by powerful interests — his properties invaded using forged documents, his bank accounts frozen, and his reputation attacked by the very institutions meant to enforce the law.

Along the way, Greene describes the human cost of the fight — from schools he built that became flashpoints for local politics to community programs twisted by rumor and manipulation.

This is a story about how conservation collides with corruption — and how one man's attempt to save forests spiraled into a struggle for survival in one of the most dangerous frontiers on earth.

In this episode of Bionic Planet, we delve into the pressing issue of climate change and its profound impact on coastal ecosystems, particularly focusing on blue carbon. We kick off the discussion by highlighting Indonesia's monumental decision to relocate its capital from Jakarta to Borneo due to the city sinking under the dual pressures of climate change and land subsidence. This serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change, which is reshaping our world in ways that often go unnoticed.

Our guest today is Dr. Steve Crooks, a leading expert in coastal ecosystems and blue carbon. He shares insights into the critical role that mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses play in mitigating climate change by sequestering carbon and acting as natural buffers against rising sea levels. We explore the unique characteristics of mangrove forests, which can sequester up to four times more carbon per hectare than traditional forests, and discuss the importance of preserving these ecosystems to combat climate change.

Dr. Crooks also provides an overview of the blue carbon system, a term that has gained traction over the past decade. He explains how coastal ecosystems have historically been overlooked in climate discussions, with a predominant focus on terrestrial forests. However, recent developments, including the recognition of blue carbon in international climate agreements like the Paris Agreement, have opened new avenues for conservation and management.

Throughout our conversation, we touch on various projects aimed at restoring and managing coastal ecosystems, including the Indus Delta Red Plus mangrove project in Pakistan, which aims to restore 350,000 hectares of degraded mangrove forest. Dr. Crooks emphasizes the importance of using verified methodologies to ensure the success of such initiatives, contrasting them with less rigorous tree-planting efforts that may not yield lasting benefits.

As we navigate through the complexities of blue carbon, we also discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by marine protected areas and the potential for mariculture to contribute to carbon sequestration. Dr. Crooks highlights the need for integrated management strategies that consider both adaptation and mitigation in the face of climate change.

In the second half of the episode, we take a virtual flyover of the Indus Delta project, where Dr. Crooks shares insights from his experiences and observations. We discuss the delicate balance between local livelihoods and environmental conservation, as well as the importance of community involvement in these initiatives.

This episode serves as a call to action, urging listeners to recognize the significance of coastal ecosystems in the fight against climate change and to support efforts aimed at their preservation and restoration. Join us as we explore the interconnectedness of our planet's ecosystems and the vital role they play in creating a sustainable future.

00:00:00 - Indonesia's Capital Relocation and Climate Change 00:01:17 - Vulnerability of Coastal Cities 00:02:55 - Importance of Coastal Ecosystems 00:04:10 - The Anthropocene and Climate Change 00:05:38 - Introduction to Dr. Steve Crooks 00:06:52 - The Indus Delta Red Plus Project 00:08:27 - Overview of Blue Carbon 00:09:49 - Support for the Podcast 00:10:02 - Revisiting the Meeting with Steve Crooks 00:12:20 - The Katoomba Meeting and Blue Carbon 00:14:13 - Challenges in the Red River Delta 00:16:09 - Comparing Red River and Indus Delta Projects 00:17:40 - Focus on Oceans at COP25 00:20:28 - Emerging Concepts in Blue Carbon 00:22:08 - Mangrove Carbon Storage Dynamics 00:24:38 - Differentiating Coastal Ecosystems 00:30:10 - Impact of Thawing Peatlands 00:32:08 - Carbon Storage in Coastal Ecosystems 00:35:17 - Lateral Movement of Carbon 00:40:23 - Interventions in Coastal Ecosystems 00:43:56 - NDCs and Blue Carbon Integration 00:50:45 - Virtual Flyover of the Indus Red Plus Project

1. "Indonesia is literally moving its capital out of Jakarta." - 00:00:11

2. "Mangroves are coastal woods, like those in Florida's Everglades, Kenya's Ghazi Bay, and all along the coasts of Indonesia." - 00:02:02

3. "Saving mangroves is key to reversing climate change." - 00:03:37

4. "Earth. We broke it, we own it. And nothing is as it was." - 00:04:47

5. "The emissions part of the curve is much steeper than what it is the gradual sequestration under a natural system." - 00:28:10

6. "Mangroves account for something like 0.7% of all forests, but at 1.10% of all emissions associated with deforestation came from mangroves." - 00:29:45

7. "Coastal ecosystems are a continuum, and it's a mosaic of habitat that goes down from the terrestrial." - 00:30:10

8. "If we don't deal with keeping things, temperatures under control, we're just going to have this massive outflow of both methane as the soils warm." - 00:33:05

9. "The first thing we can do is manage them more holistically." - 00:41:58

10. "The important thing is to continue to make progress." - 00:50:35

Like what you hear? Support us at patreon.com/bionicplanet.

Today's guest, Blue Carbon Pioneer James Kairo, brings us into the fascinating world of mangroves and their immense economic and ecological value. Our journey begins with a brief overview of mangroves, which, despite covering only 0.01% of the sea surface and just 1% of Kenya's land area, play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and coastal protection.

I had the privilege of recording this episode on location at the world's first blue carbon project, Makoko Pomoja in Gazi Bay, Kenya. This project not only aims to restore degraded coastal areas but also emphasizes the importance of education and community engagement in conservation efforts.

Throughout our conversation, Dr. Kairo highlights the multifaceted benefits of mangroves, including their role in shoreline protection, habitat provision for marine life, and their capacity to capture and store carbon dioxide. He explains how mangroves can sequester carbon at rates significantly higher than terrestrial forests due to their unique growing conditions in anoxic environments.

We also discuss the challenges faced by mangrove ecosystems, particularly the pressures of climate change, over-exploitation for wood, and the impacts of shrimp aquaculture. Dr. Kairo emphasizes the need for innovative solutions that allow communities to benefit from mangroves without degrading them. This includes alternative livelihoods such as ecotourism and sustainable fishing practices.

As we explore the concept of blue carbon, we touch on the importance of scientific research and data collection in demonstrating the value of mangroves. Dr. Kairo shares insights into the methodologies used to measure carbon sequestration and the significance of community involvement in carbon trading initiatives.

In addition to Dr. Kairo, we are joined by Basco Juma, a Kenyan social entrepreneur and founder of the NGO Big Ship, who shares his experiences in promoting sustainable practices and community engagement in mangrove conservation. Together, they illustrate the collaborative efforts required to protect these vital ecosystems and the potential for scaling similar projects in other regions.

As we wrap up the episode, we reflect on the broader implications of blue carbon initiatives for climate change mitigation and the importance of integrating local knowledge and community needs into conservation strategies. This episode serves as a powerful reminder of the critical role that mangroves play in our environment and the urgent need to protect them for future generations.

Join us as we embark on this enlightening exploration of mangroves, blue carbon, and the innovative solutions being implemented to safeguard our planet's coastal ecosystems.

In this episode of Bionic Planet, we continue our dive into the complex and often contentious world of community conservancies in northern Kenya, focusing on the Biliqo Bulesa and Cherub Community Conservancies. The episode opens with a powerful statement from community members, emphasizing that the ongoing legal battles surrounding these conservancies are not about the interests of the community but rather the agendas of a few individuals.

We introduce Mustafa Mohamed Libin, a community member from Biliqo Bulesa, who shares the story of how his community took bold steps in 2007 to form a conservancy that is truly community-run, contrasting it with the historical context of land ownership in the region. The episode highlights the positive impacts of the conservancy, including the revival of traditional grazing practices and the introduction of carbon finance to support community initiatives.

However, the narrative takes a darker turn as we discuss the backlash faced by the conservancies, particularly following a report from the Oakland Institute that accused the Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) of various human rights abuses. We explore the subsequent media frenzy that ensued, often lacking proper fact-checking and failing to consult actual community leaders. The episode serves as a follow-up to episode 117, providing deeper insights into the crisis faced by the community and the urgent need for their voices to be heard.

Throughout the episode, we hear directly from community members, including youth representatives and conservancy leaders, who express their concerns about the recent court ruling that deemed the conservancies illegal due to alleged lack of consent. They recount their shock at the judgment, which they claim was made without their knowledge or participation, and discuss the significant benefits the conservancies have brought to their lives, including access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.

The community members passionately defend the conservancies, asserting that the allegations made against them are unfounded and that the real beneficiaries of the conservancy are the local people. They highlight the transformative impact of the conservancy on women's empowerment, youth engagement, and community development, emphasizing that the conservancy is a lifeline for their livelihoods.

As the episode progresses, we address the misconceptions propagated by external organizations and the media, which often portray the conservancies in a negative light. The community members clarify the differences between community-run conservancies and private conservancies, asserting their ownership and the positive changes that have occurred since the establishment of their conservancy.

In closing, the episode underscores the importance of community voices in the narrative surrounding conservation efforts. The community members call for transparency and engagement from external organizations, urging them to visit and understand the realities on the ground rather than relying on hearsay. This episode is a powerful testament to the resilience of the Biliko Bulesa and Cherub communities and their unwavering commitment to protecting their rights and livelihoods amidst external challenges.

If you find this kind of truth-telling important, consider supporting our work at patreon.com/bionicplanet. Your support helps us continue to share these vital stories.

In this gripping two-hour episode, we pull back the curtain on misinformation campaigns targeting carbon projects in Kenya's Northern Rangelands. Through interviews with local leaders—including Mohamed Shibia, director of the Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) carbon program, and elders Peter Lekurtut of the Samboru people and Peter Kilesi of the Maasai—we hear firsthand how traditional grazing systems are being revived and enhanced, not imposed or destroyed.

🎧 Episode highlights:

• False claims by Survival International and Deutsche Welle (DW) debunked

• The real story behind grazing plans, fencing, and carbon revenue sharing

• The complexity of land management among Samburu, Maasai, and other communities

• Firsthand accounts from the family wrongly featured in the DW documentary

• How communities are using carbon finance to fund peace, health, and education

💡 What you'll learn:

• How community-led soil carbon projects work in practice

• What "planned grazing" really means—and how it strengthens, not replaces, traditional practices

• Why claims of land grabs, fences, and armed rangers are largely fictional or misunderstood

• The importance of verifying information and speaking directly with affected communities

🌍 This is the first of a two-part deep dive into one of Africa's most scrutinized carbon projects—and it might change how you think about conservation, climate finance, and indigenous rights.

🔗 Support Bionic Planet: patreon.com/bionicplanet 🎙️ Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcatcher.

In this episode of our podcast, we dive deep into the transformative potential of Africa in the global shift towards a sustainable future, featuring an insightful conversation with James Mwangi, co-founder of Dahlberg and a leading advocate for innovative climate solutions in Kenya.

We begin by discussing Africa's booming population and rich natural resources, which James argues position the continent as a powerhouse for innovation and leadership in the climate fight. Contrary to the narrative that views Africa as a victim of climate change, James emphasizes the continent's potential to lead, particularly through initiatives like the Great Carbon Valley, which aims to make Kenya a hub for carbon removals, including advanced technologies like direct air capture.

Throughout our conversation, we explore several paradoxes that complicate the implementation of carbon markets. James introduces his own concepts, such as the "power illusion," which challenges the belief that blocking carbon removals will compel fossil fuel companies to reduce emissions. He also discusses the "mastery illusion," which suggests that expertise in climate solutions lies solely in the Global North, ignoring the talent and knowledge present in Africa.

We delve into the work of the Climate Action Platform Africa (CAPE) and Africa Climate Ventures (ACV), two organizations James has founded to drive climate-positive growth in the region. CAPE focuses on identifying and realizing opportunities for sustainable development, while ACV invests in companies that address the climate crisis, showcasing innovative projects like biochar production and the Great Carbon Valley initiative.

James shares the story of Safi Organics, a company utilizing rice husks to create biochar, which not only serves as a sustainable fertilizer but also contributes to carbon removal. We discuss the importance of transitional finance and the concept of additionality, emphasizing that carbon finance can catalyze projects that are already delivering value to communities.

As we shift our focus to the Great Carbon Valley, James outlines Kenya's unique advantages, including its abundant renewable energy resources and geothermal potential. He argues that direct air capture can thrive in Kenya, leveraging the country's surplus energy to support industries that require significant power, ultimately benefiting local economies.

We also touch on the recent developments in Kenya's carbon market regulations, which aim to create a competitive environment for carbon finance while prioritizing local benefits. James highlights the importance of building a market that is not only designed for Africa but also driven by local talent and innovation.

In closing, we reflect on the need to reverse the brain drain and create opportunities for Africa's best and brightest to thrive at home. This episode is a powerful reminder of the potential for African leadership in the climate space and the importance of fostering local solutions to global challenges. Join us as we explore these critical issues and envision a sustainable future where Africa plays a central role.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Africa's Potential in Climate Solutions 00:01:00 - James Mwangi's Background and Career 00:07:00 - Climate Action Platform Africa (CAPE) 00:09:30 - Africa Climate Ventures (ACV) 00:11:30 - The Role of Biochar in Carbon Removal 00:20:00 - The Importance of Additionality in Carbon Finance 00:27:00 - Safi Organics and Biochar Production 00:30:00 - Great Carbon Valley: Kenya's Direct Air Capture Initiative 00:36:00 - Kenya's Geothermal Energy Potential 00:40:00 - Kenya's New Carbon Market Regulations 00:45:00 - The Future of African Talent and Climate Solutions

In this episode of Bionic Planet, Season 10, Episode 115, we dive into the significant environmental implications of the executive orders signed by President Donald Trump on his first day in office. Originally, we had planned to focus this season on Africa, but the rapid changes in U.S. environmental policy prompted us to shift gears.

I connected with Tim Male last week.

Tim, who founded the Environmental Policy Innovation Center in 2017, has a wealth of experience in environmental policy, having worked in various capacities, including at the White House and with organizations like Defenders of Wildlife. Both Tim and I share a commitment to addressing climate challenges, despite our differing perspectives on party policies.

In our discussion, we unpack Tim's recent LinkedIn post, where he meticulously breaks down the ten executive actions that target environmental regulations. We explore the unprecedented number of executive orders issued in such a short time frame and the potential consequences of these actions. Tim emphasizes that while executive orders can set priorities for federal agencies, they must still align with existing laws, which can lead to legal challenges.

We delve into specific orders, starting with the requirement for the "God squad" under the Endangered Species Act to meet more frequently and expedite reviews of projects that could impact endangered species. Tim explains the historical context of this committee and its potential to prioritize development over environmental protections.

Next, we discuss directives to the Army Corps of Engineers to expedite permitting processes under the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act, raising concerns about the implications for environmental safeguards. Tim provides insights into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and its role in ensuring that federal actions minimize environmental harm.

We also examine the revocation of President Carter's executive order aimed at making environmental impact statements more accessible to the public, which Tim argues could lead to confusion and inconsistency across federal agencies. The episode continues with a discussion on the rescinding of protections for ancient forests and the withdrawal from international efforts to combat deforestation.

Tim highlights the significance of ecosystem service valuation and the potential loss of guidance that could have helped quantify the benefits of environmental services. We touch on the broader implications of these actions, including the potential for increased energy production at the expense of environmental protections.

As we wrap up, we reflect on the long-term consequences of these executive orders and the potential for legal challenges. Tim expresses concern about the sweeping nature of these actions and the message they send to communities affected by energy projects.

This episode serves as a critical examination of the intersection between politics and environmental policy, providing listeners with a deeper understanding of the current landscape and the challenges ahead in the fight against climate change.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Season 10 and Episode Overview 00:02:09 - Trump's Executive Orders on Environmental Policies 00:03:29 - The Role of Executive Orders in U.S. Government 00:04:01 - Critique of Trump's Environmental Actions 00:05:01 - Legal Challenges to Executive Orders 00:06:19 - Endangered Species Act and the God Squad 00:10:11 - Clean Water Act and Emergency Procedures 00:13:42 - Understanding NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) 00:16:03 - Revocation of Carter's NEPA Executive Order 00:19:12 - Rescinding Protections for Ancient Forests 00:21:49 - International Cooperation on Deforestation 00:23:09 - Ecosystem Service Valuation Guidance Rescinded 00:28:05 - Nature-Based Solutions and Their Importance 00:29:59 - Action Plans for Energy Production Regulations 00:32:19 - Suspension of Policies Related to Energy in Alaska 00:34:27 - Impact of Schedule F on Federal Employment 00:38:11 - DOJ Teams and Federal Workforce Changes 00:41:00 - The Role of Professionals in Government 00:44:25 - Conclusion and Future Implications

1. "On his very first day in office, President Donald Trump signed 78 executive actions, and 10 of them targeted environmental policies." - 00:02:09

2. "It's pretty hard to find the wheat among the chaff in this set of actions from the environment." - 00:04:01

3. "What this order is foreshadowing is a bunch of people who are much more likely to prioritize a development project are going to get the final say on conflicts involving endangered species." - 00:09:33

4. "This is really just we're not going to do it." - 00:04:33

5. "The law is pretty limited in terms of who can, you know, ask for an appeal of the decision." - 00:10:21

6. "This is a part of that same executive order from President Biden that is being rescinded." - 00:20:25

7. "It's a broad and messy brush that they're painting across the forest landscape in a way that is pretty harmful." - 00:21:18

8. "This is a White House that's showing great interest in expanding the power of the White House." - 00:18:00

9. "There's people across the federal government who are very creative at saying, well, you've told me to do it this way, and that's not legal." - 00:42:19

10. "At the end of the day, I don't know what your philosophy is on how democracy is supposed to work, but, you know, at some level, the winner is supposed to get to decide what happens next." - 00:36:38

• Bionic Planet

• Season 10

• Episode 115

• Donald Trump

• Tim Mayle

• Environmental Policy Innovation Center

• White House

• Defenders of Wildlife

• Nairobi

• LinkedIn

• Endangered Species Act

• Alaska

• Clean Water Act

• National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

• Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)

• Obama administration

• Biden administration

• Anthropocene

• Steve Zwick

• snail darter

• whooping cranes

• Trans-Alaskan pipeline

• liquefied natural gas (LNG)

• Tongass National Forest

• U.S. Digital Service

• Virginia

• Youngkin

• ecosystem services

• climate emergency

• energy dominance

• fossil fuels

• Native Alaskans

• Paris Accord

• Washington, D.C.

• environmental impact statements

• mitigation banking

• biodiversity

• carbon sequestration

• emergency procedures

• federal workforce

• Schedule F

• Department of Justice (DOJ)

In this episode of Bionic Planet, I delve into the complex and often controversial world of conservation in the Amazon, featuring Michael Greene, a figure recently spotlighted in a Washington Post article that painted him as a land grabber. However, my intention is to provide a more nuanced perspective on his story, which I believe reflects broader challenges in the fight against deforestation.

Michael Greene's journey began in 2009 when he entered the tangled legal landscape of land ownership in the Amazon. His work is set against a backdrop of illegal logging, land grabbing, and the struggles of local settlers. The episode explores the threats to the Amazon, particularly in the Portel region, where illegal loggers and wealthy individuals exploit the land, often using deceptive tactics to claim vast areas.

Throughout our conversation, we discuss the various actors involved in this crisis, including the legal landowners, illegal loggers, and settlers who are often caught in the middle. Michael shares insights into the "hair comb" pattern of deforestation, where roads are cut into the forest, leading to a gradual encroachment of settlers and illegal loggers alike.

As we unpack Michael's project, we examine the strategies he implemented to combat deforestation and support local communities. He highlights the importance of the Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR), a mandatory environmental registry that helps families claim their land and protect it from illegal encroachment. Michael's initiative aimed to empower local families by helping them navigate this bureaucratic process, ultimately securing their land rights.

However, the episode also addresses the backlash Michael faced from local NGOs and other organizations that accused him of being a land grabber himself. We discuss the complexities of these accusations and the challenges of working in a region where the status quo is heavily influenced by illegal logging and land grabbing.

Throughout our two-hour conversation, I aim to provide a balanced view of Michael's work, acknowledging his quirks and the difficulties he has encountered while also emphasizing the positive impact he has had on local communities. This episode serves as a raw and unfiltered look at the challenges of conservation in the Amazon, offering listeners a glimpse into the intricate dynamics at play in the fight against deforestation.

Join me as we explore the unfolding saga of Michael Green, a figure who embodies the complexities of conservation efforts in one of the world's most vital ecosystems.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Michael Green and the Controversy 00:05:30 - The Project in Portel: Initial Threats and Land Ownership 00:10:00 - Illegal Logging and Settler Dynamics 00:15:00 - The Hair Comb Pattern of Deforestation 00:20:00 - Countering Land Grabbing: The CAR Initiative 00:25:00 - Building Schools and Community Engagement 00:30:00 - Legal Challenges and Land Ownership Issues 00:35:00 - Pushback from NGOs and the Status Quo 00:40:00 - Historical Context: Jonas Morioka's Land Purchase 00:45:00 - Michael's Entry into Conservation and REDD+ 00:50:00 - The Role of COIAB and Initial Meetings 00:55:00 - Investment Groups and Project Development 01:00:00 - Controversies Surrounding Other Carbon Projects

1. "I believe, based on the evidence to date, that he's been unjustly pilloried." - 00:00:43

2. "It's an unvarnished and unstructured look at the challenges of ending deforestation." - 00:03:13

3. "The threats to the area primarily in this period of time before the project started was illegal logging." - 00:04:44

4. "What happened as this hair comb deforestation that takes place in the Amazon, it was starting to reach the borders of the property." - 00:06:16

5. "We realized that the threat was really more of an organized crime threat, where they're organized land grabbing taking place." - 00:07:09

6. "Their cycles, typically, each family might do seven hectares and they plant one hectare one year and then they abandon it." - 00:15:54

7. "My big fear was that the settlers or the traditional people were going to be approached by illegal loggers as well as land invaders." - 00:17:22

8. "We wanted to track that and put eyes on it basically." - 00:23:02

9. "If it's not my carbon credit project, it's nobody's carbon credit project." - 00:43:12

10. "I think a lot of those news stories were pushed by his partners who wanted Jonas out of the area." - 00:41:37

This episode of Bionic Planet is a rebroadcast of David Hill's podcast, "How to Avoid Moving to Mars."

In it, Professor David Hill, CBE, speaks with George Kelly, the Chief Executive of Earth Recovery Partners in the U.S. George has been a pivotal figure in the realm of mitigation banking and ecological restoration. Their conversation delves into his extensive career, starting from his early days as an environmental law practitioner to his current role supporting emerging enterprises in the environmental market.

George shared insights into his journey, beginning with his master's degree in environmental law and his work at a law firm focused on environmental issues, including the Superfund law. He highlighted the importance of viewing the environment as an asset rather than a cost center.

They discussed the evolution of mitigation banking in the U.S., including the challenges posed by in-lieu fees and the need for a level playing field in mitigation practices. George explained the significance of the 2008 Federal Mitigation Rule, which established rigorous standards for mitigation banking and emphasized the importance of long-term stewardship and accountability in ecological restoration projects.

Throughout their conversation, George emphasized the role of private finance in ecological restoration, discussing various funding models such as green bonds and public-private partnerships. He highlighted the potential for these models to drive effective environmental solutions while ensuring that public funds are used efficiently.

As they explored the future of environmental markets, George expressed optimism about the growth of offset markets and the increasing recognition of the inherent value of nature. He pointed to the importance of corporate responsibility and the need for businesses to embrace sustainable practices as a means of driving positive change.

In closing, George shared his admiration for historical figures in the conservation movement, such as Teddy Roosevelt and John Muir, while also acknowledging the contributions of contemporary thinkers like E.O. Wilson. He underscored the necessity of valuing nature and recognizing its role in our economy, urging listeners to consider the long-term implications of environmental degradation.

This episode was not only enlightening but also a call to action for all of us to engage in the vital work of protecting our planet. I hope you find David's questions and George's insights as inspiring as I did, and I encourage you to reflect on how we can all contribute to a more sustainable future.

In Episode 112 of Bionic Planet, titled "Fantasy Football and Dynamic Baselines: New Tools for Impact Assessment," we unpack the often misunderstood concept of dynamic baselines and its origin in synthetic controls, using fantasy football as an analogy.

The episode begins with a clear and relatively simple explanation of dynamic baselines, which have emerged as a valuable tool in climate finance. Unlike traditional static baselines, which rely on fixed reference points, dynamic baselines adapt to changing conditions and provide a more accurate measure of impact. We discuss the importance of data and the need for robust methodologies to ensure that we can effectively attribute changes in deforestation and other environmental metrics to specific interventions.

Our guests for this episode are Lynn Riley from the American Forest Foundation and David Schoch from TerraCarbon, both of whom have played pivotal roles in advancing the application of synthetic controls in carbon markets. They share insights from their work on the Family Forest Carbon Program, which aims to engage small family landowners in sustainable forest management practices. Through their collaboration, they have developed methodologies that not only improve the accuracy of carbon accounting but also empower landowners to adapt their practices based on real-time feedback.

Throughout the episode, we examine the challenges of establishing effective baselines in diverse contexts, particularly in the United States. We highlight the significance of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which provides a rich source of information for modeling deforestation risk and assessing the impact of various interventions. The conversation also touches on the importance of addressing confounding variables and ensuring that methodologies are applicable across different forest types and ownership structures.

As we wrap up, we reflect on the broader implications of dynamic baselines for climate finance and the potential for these innovative approaches to drive meaningful change in forest management. By fostering a more responsive and data-driven framework, we can better understand the impacts of our actions and work towards a more sustainable future.

Join us for this engaging episode as we bridge the worlds of sports and environmental science, uncovering the lessons that can be learned from both fields in our quest to navigate the Anthropocene.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Bionic Planet and Episode Overview 00:01:03 - Justin Fields and the NFL Draft Dynamics 00:02:14 - Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields: A Season Comparison 00:04:27 - Troy Aikman on Rookie Quarterback Struggles 00:05:53 - Sam Darnold's Journey Through the NFL 00:06:58 - Kurt Warner's Unlikely Rise to Success 00:07:48 - Connecting Sports Performance to Climate Impact Assessment 00:08:31 - Challenges in Measuring Success in Climate Finance 00:09:12 - Dynamic Baselines vs. Traditional Baselines 00:10:32 - Introduction of Guests: Lynn Riley and David Schoch 00:11:18 - Overview of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:11:59 - The Green Municipalities Program in Brazil 00:12:53 - Evaluating the Impact of the Green Municipalities Program 00:13:58 - Synthetic Control Method Explained 00:15:30 - Causal Inference and Its Importance 00:16:52 - Fantasy Football as an Analogy for Synthetic Controls 00:19:00 - Comparison of Real and Synthetic Outcomes 00:20:58 - The Role of Data in Impact Assessment 00:21:31 - Discussion on the Synthetic Control Method Paper 00:22:30 - David Schoch's Contributions to the Research 00:25:05 - Weighting in Synthetic Control Methodology 00:26:32 - Eliminating Uncertainty in Climate Finance 00:28:13 - Linking Methodologies to Improved Forest Management 00:30:59 - Data Sufficiency and Methodology Applicability 00:31:39 - Engaging Small Landowners in Carbon Markets 00:33:43 - The Role of the U.S. Forest Service Data 00:35:41 - Public Consultation and Methodology Development 00:36:09 - Interventions for Improved Forest Management 00:38:36 - Risk Sharing in Carbon Credit Projects 00:40:56 - The Importance of Monitoring and Feedback 00:42:05 - Evolution of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:50:07 - Challenges in Data Collection and Stakeholder Engagement

1. "Bionic Planet is the longest-running program in any medium devoted to navigating the Anthropocene, the new epoch defined by man's impact on Earth." - 00:00:10

2. "Football fans, like all sports fans, love arguing about who is better and who's just lucky." - 00:01:25

3. "Different people, different circumstances. And how do you tell who's better?" - 00:06:04

4. "We can restore it. Make it better, greener, more resilient, more sustainable. But how?" - 00:08:09

5. "Dynamic baselines adapt to shifting conditions and update more frequently." - 00:09:34

6. "The fundamental concept of synthetic controls is something we all use every day." - 00:16:52

7. "To see if an intervention works, you can synthetically model a control unit or an imaginary city where the variables are similar." - 00:16:09

8. "The ultimate goal in both cases is comparison." - 00:19:00

9. "It's not that the introduction of these methods eliminates uncertainty, but it did eliminate an important source of uncertainty and confounding." - 00:26:42

10. "There's always going to be a gap between a scenario that you model and what happens in real life, because no models are perfect." - 00:46:45