Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Cuba says a boat with 10 people near its coast early Wednesday was carrying weapons, and its occupants — Cubans living in the US — were intent on entering the country to fight against the government. Cuban forces killed four people who had opened fire from a speedboat with Florida tags, an incident with the potential to escalate an already tense standoff with the US. The vessel approached within one nautical mile off the coast of Villa Clara early Wednesday, Cuba’s Interior Ministry said in a statement. Six others on the speedboat were wounded and are being provided with medical care. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday afternoon that the Department of Homeland Security and Coast Guard would be looking into the incident.
2) The US and Iran started a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday with days to go until President Trump’s deadline for a deal. The two parties have been locked in a tense, months-long standoff over the Islamic Republic’s atomic activities and are negotiating through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. Trump had given Iran a deadline of March 1-6 to strike a deal and has threatened military action if it fails to do so, sparking fears of a new Middle East war that could embroil Israel and Gulf Arab oil producers.
3) The US vowed to maintain high tariffs on China hours after Beijing warned against any future hikes, as President Trump’s sweeping levies return to the spotlight before his meeting with Xi Jinping. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that Trump wants to keep tariffs on China steady at a range of 35% to 50%, while repeating earlier statements that the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate broad emergency tariffs wouldn’t affect most levies. Earlier the same day, China threatened to take “all necessary measures” if the US imposed fresh tariffs, after Washington signaled a probe into their 2020 trade deal would continue. Beijing reiterated it wants to use the existing consultation mechanism to build consensus.

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Nvidia Corp. gave a bullish quarterly revenue forecast, signaling that the build-out of AI computing remains on track, with fiscal first-quarter sales expected to be about $78 billion.

The company's outlook helped soothe concerns about a bubble in AI investments, with Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang saying that customers are racing to invest in AI compute.

Nvidia shares rose about 4% in extended trading following the announcement, after the company reported revenue gained 73% to $68.1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, and profit was $1.62 a share, excluding certain items.

For instant reaction, Bloomberg Businessweek hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with analysts and experts from across the Bloomberg newsroom, including:

• Bloomberg Tech Co-Host Ed Ludlow
• Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst, Semiconductors & Electronics with Seaport Research Partners
• Bloomberg Intelligence senior tech industry analyst Mandeep Singh
• Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst Anurag Rana

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Addressing one of his biggest audiences at perhaps the lowest moment of his second term, President Trump returned again and again in his State of the Union speech to the same message on the economy: Everything is going great. A resolute Trump was determined to will Americans into a better economic mood, seeking to paint over the affordability concerns at the center of upcoming midterm elections with statistics and self-congratulation. “Inflation is plummeting. Incomes are rising fast. The roaring economy is roaring like never before,” Trump boasted early in the nearly two-hour speech. The US president didn’t even feel compelled to roll out fresh policy ideas to address the cost of living. And where he did allow that voters might have some misgivings about cost of living, he followed his well-worn playbook of pinning blame elsewhere. Ahead of the speech, Trump’s advisers had framed the evening as an opportunity to lay out a forward-looking economic agenda that could serve as a reset ahead of the midterms. But he focused more on touting his signature tax legislation and trade policies than major new cost-of-living proposals — a hint that the issue is still vexing the White House.
2) Four days after deriding the US Supreme Court justices who struck down most of his signature tariffs, President Trump was far milder in his criticism with some of them in the room. Delivering his State of the Union address Tuesday, Trump criticized Friday’s 6-3 ruling against his sweeping global tariffs as “very unfortunate” and “disappointing.” The four justices who attended — Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — sat stoically in their front-row seats. Even in their relatively mild form, Trump’s comments marked a rare instance of high court criticism during a State of the Union address. In 2010, then-President Barack Obama criticized the just-issued Citizens United campaign-finance ruling, accusing the court of ignoring a century of precedent.
3) Nvidia Corp. is facing a high-stakes moment with its latest quarterly results on Wednesday, with the world waiting for fresh evidence that the AI spending boom remains on track. To satisfy investors, Nvidia likely needs to deliver another blockbuster report. That means easily topping the forecasts it gave three months ago and setting new targets that are above current Wall Street estimates. The company has done this repeatedly, but concerns have grown that the AI spending frenzy isn’t sustainable. Nvidia is the dominant supplier of processors used to develop and run AI models, making it the biggest bellwether of the artificial intelligence economy. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has assured investors in public appearances that demand remains high and customers such as Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have rolled out more aggressive spending plans. Investors also will be looking for additional ways for Nvidia to accelerate growth. That may include pushing further into China, where US export curbs — and Chinese pushback — have limited sales.

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President Donald Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address of the television age Tuesday, declaring “a turnaround for the ages” as he tried to sell Americans on his economic program ahead of crucial midterm elections later this year.

The speech had all the ceremony, confrontation and chaos that have come to define the event in an era of narrow congressional majorities and partisan polarization. Democratic Representative Al Green was ejected from the chamber for disrupting the speech. Trump invited the gold-medal-winning men’s Olympic hockey team into the gallery amid chants of “USA! USA! USA!” He awarded several medals honoring veterans and active-duty service members.

And in more than 1 hour 47 minutes, the longest State of the Union in history, the president delivered a rally-like speech punctuated less by policy proposals than by political attacks.

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Balance of Power hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with:

• Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff Mason
• Rick Davis, Partner at Stonecourt Capital and Bloomberg Politics Contributor & Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center and Bloomberg Politics Contributor
• US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) A powerful winter storm started to taper off across the Northeast Monday evening after smashing records and dropping more than a foot of snow in eight states. The impact is expected to linger for days. More than 11,000 flights have been grounded through Tuesday, and more than 500,000 homes and businesses were without power as of 5:45 p.m. local time. Drivers in some parts of Massachusetts have been ordered to stay off the roads as snowplow crews struggle to catch up after whiteout conditions engulfed the state’s South Coast. Manhattan’s Central Park recorded about 20 inches (50 centimeters) of snow from Sunday through Monday. Islip on Long Island received more than 22 inches, according to the National Weather Service. Providence, Rhode Island, broke its record for a single snow storm with 32.8 inches, the National Weather Service said. The old record was set from Feb. 6-7 during the Blizzard of 1978 when 28.6 inches fell.
2) Affordability and tariffs are expected to be two key domestic themes of President Trump's State of the Union address, posing headline risk for credit-card issuers, homebuilders, single-family REITs and retailers exposed to duties. He will likely address the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, reiterating his pledge to keep them in place, while other proposals requiring congressional approval face long odds in 2026. With President Trump's approval rating at 42% according to RealClearPolitics, consumer affordability of goods and services will be a key focus for the administration ahead of the US midterm elections in November. So far in 2026, Trump has proposed measures such as a 10% cap on credit-card interest, regulatory cuts to lower household energy prices, tax relief and prohibiting corporations from purchasing single-family homes. Yet investors should note that presidential authority to drive affordability goals may be limited, especially if congressional approval is required or if tariff policy risks driving higher inflation.
3) President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday, kicking off a White House effort to preserve the adminstration’s trade agenda after the Supreme Court struck down his original sweeping duties. The president signed an executive order last Friday authorizing the 10% import tax just hours after the ruling. He subsequently threatened to raise the number to 15%, but Trump did not officially issue a directive to increase the rate by Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. Washington time when the 10% levy went into effect. The White House is working on a formal order that will increase the global tariff rate to 15%, according to an administration official. The timeline for implementing that higher levy has not been finalized, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private matters.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) A powerful winter storm has isolated New York City and hobbled transport networks, threatening to be among its worst on record, with 41 million people across the US East Coast facing blizzard conditions. The storm shut down the vast majority of flights out of the region’s largest airports on Monday, including in the New York area and in Boston. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani declared a state of emergency and closed streets, highways and bridges to most traffic after 9 p.m. Sunday until noon Monday. Major snowfall of as much as 30 inches is expected across the East Coast in some areas, with the heaviest set through Sunday night and into Monday morning, the National Weather Service said, making travel impossible.
2) Senior US officials said President Trump’s tariff defeat at the Supreme Court won’t unravel deals negotiated with US partners as they sought to defend the administration’s assertive trade policies. Those deals — which the administration made with partners including China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea — remain in place, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation. He sought to separate those arrangements from the planned 15% global tariff Trump announced Saturday. Friction over the renewed uncertainty spilled out Sunday as the European Parliament’s trade chief said he’ll propose freezing the EU’s ratification of a trade deal with the US until the Trump administration clarifies its policy. In New Delhi, officials cited similar reasons for India postponing talks in the US this week on finalizing an interim trade deal. The US Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump’s use of emergency authority to wield tariffs preceded his planned trip next month to China. Greer suggested that alternative US trade tools, including those involving investigations of other countries’ trade practices, would give the US leverage.
3) The US and Iran are set to resume talks Thursday in Geneva, according to Omani mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he expects to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff for the talks and reiterated that Iran won’t be pressured by a US military buildup in the region. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on X that the US-Iran negotiations “are now set for Geneva this Thursday, with a positive push to go the extra mile towards finalizing the deal.” After talks last week, a US official said Iran was expected to return with proposals in two weeks to bridge remaining gaps. The US has orchestrated a massive military buildup in the Middle East including two aircraft carriers as President Trump presses Tehran for a new nuclear deal. Trump said on Friday he’s considering limited strikes on Iran, risking another destabilizing conflict.

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to earnings from chipmaker Nvidia along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. 
• In the UK – a look ahead to a special election in the UK.
• In Asia – a look ahead to India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to Israel.

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The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, undercutting his signature economic policy and delivering his biggest legal defeat since he returned to the White House.

Voting 6-3, the court said Trump exceeded his authority by invoking a federal emergency-powers law to impose his “reciprocal” tariffs across the globe as well as targeted import taxes the administration says address fentanyl trafficking.

The justices didn’t address the extent to which importers are entitled to refunds, leaving it to a lower court to sort out those issues. If fully allowed, refunds could total as much as $170 billion - more than half the total revenue Trump’s tariffs have brought in.

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Intelligence co-hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu, o speak with:

- Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall
- Bloomberg Legal Analyst and host of Bloomberg Law June Grasso
- Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy at Veda Partners
- Dave Townsend, Partner with Dorsey & Whitney

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) The US military is stationing a vast array of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and refueling tankers, with President Trump saying that Iran had 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program. “We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” Trump told reporters Thursday aboard Air Force One. On a deadline, Trump said he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue. The deployment is unlike anything the US has done since 2003, when it amassed forces before the invasion of Iraq. It dwarfs the military buildup that Trump ordered off the coast of Venezuela in the weeks before he ousted President Nicolas Maduro. While the US isn’t likely to deploy ground troops, the buildup suggests Trump is giving himself discretion to launch a sustained campaign lasting many days, in cooperation with Israel.
2) President Trump declared victory in the fight over cost-of-living concerns, signaling a new approach that seeks to deny problems with his economic agenda while touting stock market gains to insist that his tariff plans have been a success. Pocketbook issues have emerged as the central focus of the upcoming November congressional elections with households hit hard by costs for groceries, utilities and housing. Polls show voters have soured on Trump’s economic policies, endangering Republicans’ hold on both chambers of Congress and the future of the president’s legislative agenda. Trump and allies have highlighted slowing inflation and job growth that has come in above expectations, but that has failed to assuage voters, and opened the door for Democrats who have seized on that discontent to boost their midterm prospects.
3) Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the brother of the UK’s King Charles, was released under investigation on Thursday after being arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. The Thames Valley Police confirmed it had released a Norfolk man in his sixties, without mentioning the former royal by name. Last week, the police force said it was leading the assessment of allegations tied to the US Department of Justice’s publication of files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. King Charles III issued a statement outlining his “deepest concern” about the matter and promising Buckingham Palace’s “full and wholehearted support and co-operation” with the investigating authorities. The arrest of Andrew, who turned 66 on Thursday, heaps further embarrassment on Britain’s royal family following years of lurid allegations about ties with Epstein that the former prince has consistently denied. His arrest appears to be the first of a UK royal since King Charles I in the 17th century following his defeat in the English Civil War.

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On today's podcast:
1) While both the US and Iran have sounded cautiously upbeat about the latest round of diplomatic talks between the nations, analysts believe that strikes on Iranian targets remain a likely possibility. The US has amassed military assets in the Middle East and has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region. Concerns of a broader conflict held Brent crude above $70 a barrel. The US also announced new visa restrictions, with the State Department saying it is targeting 18 Iranian officials and telecommunications industry leaders and their immediate family members for the crackdown and communications blackout, blaming them for “inhibiting the right of Iranians to free expression and peaceful assembly.”
2) Billionaire retail tycoon Leslie Wexner told a US House panel Wednesday that he visited Jeffrey Epstein’s private Caribbean island but said at the time he wasn’t aware of any sex trafficking operation involving the disgraced financier. Wexner said he went to the island once with his wife and children “for a few hours” while the family was in the area on their boat, according to his opening statement in a deposition to congressional investigators that was provided to Bloomberg News by his attorney. The House Oversight Committee has been investigating what role Epstein’s broad network of connections may have played in facilitating his enterprise or delaying criminal prosecution. Wexner was questioned behind closed doors by congressional investigators for six hours on Wednesday, a spokesman for the panel said.
3) OpenAI is close to finalizing the first phase of a new funding round that is likely to bring in more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, a record-breaking financing deal that would give the startup additional capital to build out its artificial intelligence tools. As the ChatGPT maker prepares to spend trillions in infrastructure investment, the overall valuation of the company, including the eventual funding, could exceed $850 billion, according to some of the people. That’s higher than the $830 billion initially expected. The company’s pre-money value will remain $730 billion, said one person, all of whom asked not to be identified discussing private information.

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