Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Nvidia delivered a sales forecast that left some investors underwhelmed, adding to concerns about the momentum of AI spending. Revenue in the current period will be $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Though analysts had estimated $105.2 billion on average, some projections exceeded $110 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gross margin, the percentage of sales remaining after deducting the cost of production, will be roughly 74%. 

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Tim Stenovec and Lisa Mateo speak with Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech co-host, and Rami Sarafa, CEO at Cordoba Advisory Partners.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) The Chinese government and Xi Jinping are sending a message of defiance to President Trump over China's economic ties with Iran. China will take "all necessary measures" to safeguard its interests, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, after the US sanctioned dozens of Chinese entities. China has thrown Tehran an economic lifeline as its biggest buyer of oil, and Xi appears in no rush to help Trump end a conflict that's pulling US resources from Asia.

2) The Trump administration is discussing additional trade penalties against Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled dollar-for-dollar retaliation to new tariffs imposed by the US. Additional US escalation against Canada could include higher tariffs and other trade actions, according to a White House official. The Canadian government announced that it would double its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products to 50% and apply new 50% duties to other US products, affecting $20 billion worth of annual US exports to Canada.

3) Wall Street is anticipating Nvidia's earnings for what they mean to artificial intelligence investors and the market itself. Nvidia is considered the best barometer for AI spending, and its earnings will help determine if hyperscalers are still accelerating or becoming more disciplined. Investors want to hear what Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has to say about capital spending, future demand, and new financing deals that involve Nvidia.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s threat to unleash an “economic D-Day” against Iran risks setting the US on a collision course with China, its main trading partner. Bessent promised an “economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe” and unveiled dozens of new sanctions, but the main thrust was threatening secondary sanctions against companies and countries that continue doing business with Iran. China defended its cooperation with Iran and warned of potential retaliation, saying it will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own interests, as the US effort to impose secondary sanctions risks expanding the economic disruption caused by the war against Iran.
2) Canada's government will announce measures to "protect and support" its workers and businesses in response to US tariffs. Domestic measures will include expanded jobless benefits and loans for businesses affected by the tariffs. Canada plans to retaliate against the US tariffs, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying "everything is on the table" regarding the country's response. US-Canada trade talks collapsed after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick applied last-minute pressure, leading President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to vow retaliation.
3) Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May as optimism returns to the crypto market amid bullish signals. The increase comes after Bitcoin rallied in the seven days through Sunday, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had their strongest weekly inflow in 10 months last week.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government sees little chance of resuming talks with President Donald Trump before the midterm elections after trade talks collapsed. Carney is designing a domestic aid package to help businesses hurt by US tariffs, which will remain in place for the duration of the conflict and throughout the rest of Trump’s term if need be. The US has said the path for talks is unclear, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stating that they don’t have new talks planned with the Canadians and are moving forward with measures that respond to Canadian retaliation.

2) Iran’s oil shipments to Asia have all but dried up, driving the cost of those cargoes to the highest levels in years. A US blockade has left loaded Iranian vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf and a fleet of empty ones stuck outside, resulting in a scarcity of oil in the region. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to unveil a plan for “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”, targeting Chinese refiners and the banks funding them.

3) Investors are looking for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to clarify his views on how the US central bank should react to stubborn inflation when he speaks on Friday at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The chairman's communications strategy is off to a rocky start, and he's under pressure to give clearer guidance of how the Fed might react over the remainder of the year. Recent data have shown inflation, while still above the Fed's 2% goal, may be starting to cool, with economists estimating the PCE price index rose 3.6% in July from a year ago.

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole and earnings from chip giant, Nvidia.
• In the UK – a look ahead to a key meeting of French business leaders as they count down to a pivotal Presidential election.
• In Asia – a look ahead to Tokyo inflation

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) Oil headed for a substantial weekly gain, as a US push to isolate Iran’s economy raised the specter of further market disruption.Global crude benchmark Brent traded above $93 a barrel, on pace for a weekly advance of around 6%. West Texas Intermediate for October was near $86 a barrel following a five-session run of gains.

2) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he’s prepared to expand efforts to buy back costlier debt and that the administration will be unveiling a new fiscal initiative to address the highest borrowing costs in years.

3) Anthropic PBC expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, in the latest sign of overwhelming demand from investors looking to profit from the artificial intelligence boom.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump announced plans to subject Iran to an “economic D-Day,” underscoring his rising frustration with Tehran’s refusal to capitulate despite military strikes and an American blockade targeting its oil exports. Trump didn’t specify what measures he would take, but his threat to target Iran’s trading partners, none of which he cited by name, put an immediate focus on China, which buys the bulk of Iran’s oil. Trump demanded that all countries cease providing Iran access to exchange houses, cash transfers, swap lines, ship registries, front companies and avenues to smuggle out its oil. He also sought to rally other nations that have so far declined to support his war on the Islamic Republic, saying the US needs all its allies to help “isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat.”
2) A tentative trade deal between the US and Canada would lower tariffs on certain Canadian exports of steel and aluminum to 25% and cut duties on Canadian auto exports to 15%, according to people familiar with the matter. The details have yet to be finalized and are not expected to apply across the board. For steel and aluminum, different rates could apply to some derivative products that include those metals, said some of the people, who requested anonymity to discuss terms of the agreement before it is announced. Tariffs on the non-US content in autos exported from Canada would be reduced to 15% from 25%, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Talks between US and Canadian trade advisers continued Wednesday, less than 24 hours after President Trump paused planned 50% levies on billions of dollars of Canadian goods to allow more time to negotiate.
3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a fresh attempt to rein-in long-term borrowing costs from multi-year highs, sending Treasury yields and the dollar down. Just two weeks after releasing its planned schedule for buybacks this quarter, the Treasury Department on Wednesday said it’s “increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations” for securities dated from the 10-year to the 30-year sector. The bold intervention to stem a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs has some investors saying the dollar will ultimately pay the price. Some market participants see the move as a turning point, with Washington taking a more active role in keeping its borrowing costs down. Coming after other recent efforts to rein in long-term yields, it’s reviving a concern that US policy could weaken faith in the dollar and push investors toward alternatives.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon stormed to a surprise win in Florida’s US Senate primary, while Republican Representative Byron Donalds, backed by a $100 million war chest and President Donald Trump’s endorsement, cruised to victory in his gubernatorial primary. Nixon, a Black labor and political organizer from Jacksonville who has been a state lawmaker since 2020, defeated Alex Vindman by more than 10 percentage points, upending pre-election polling. Vindman, who rose to notoriety in Trump’s first administration by being a key witness in his first impeachment trial, had outraised Nixon by 16-to-1. Meantime, the race to replace two-term Governor Ron DeSantis will be fought between Donalds and David Jolly, a former Republican-turned-moderate Democrat. With registered Republicans outnumbering Democrats by more than 1.5 million people in Florida, Jolly will have to appeal to independent voters and hope that some Republicans stay home to deliver an upset.
2) The Trump administration delayed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian products for three days, saying the two sides had reached a tentative agreement to resolve a broader trade dispute that had plunged relations to a fresh low. President Trump announced the decision less than two hours before the tariffs were set to take effect. A White House proclamation later said the duties were halted after Canada “expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations” on US autos, dairy and alcohol. And the US Trade Representative’s office said the deal includes “comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment” and other factors, without giving specifics.
3) President Trump insisted Tuesday that there were no talks ongoing with Iran, leaving the simmering conflict in the Middle East and control of the Strait of Hormuz stuck in limbo. The memorandum of understanding that the US and Iran signed in June in an effort to buy time to negotiate a lasting peace deal — as repeatedly violated as it had been during that 60-day window — has expired. There are no plans to extend it, leaving the status of Hormuz unresolved, with little traffic and Washington and Tehran still at odds over how the waterway should be managed.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with Iran, leaving the simmering conflict in the Middle East and a tussle for control of the Strait of Hormuz stuck in limbo. A memorandum of understanding the US and Iran signed in June that gave them a 60-day window to negotiate a lasting peace deal technically expired Monday, and when Trump was asked if he would seek an extension, he replied: “No.” The ceasefire had been repeatedly violated in any event, with intermittent clashes continuing, and both sides had declared it defunct. Brent crude climbed Tuesday - by its highest level in more than three weeks - as prospects dimmed for a swift reopening of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited before the war. Trump is demanding that free passage through the waterway be restored, while Iran said it will govern traffic in conjunction with Oman.
2) Jared Kushner assured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Israeli army won’t be compelled to withdraw from Gaza until Hamas disarms, an official with knowledge of the talks said, a stance that will dim hopes for a Gaza peace deal anytime soon. Kushner met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday, a day after holding talks with a Hamas leader in Egypt. The US and Israel agreed there would be no Israel Defense Forces redeployment from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed and all of Gaza is demilitarized, according to the Board of Peace official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Those conditions are likely to be rejected by Hamas, which has insisted that Israel withdraw from Gaza before it gives up its weapons.
3) Chinese leader Xi Jinping will forgo a stop in New York to address the UN General Assembly during a trip to the US next month to meet President Donald Trump, Politico reported. Politico cited four people familiar with the matter whom it didn’t identify. Xi plans to visit the US for three days, meeting Trump on Sept. 24, one of the people said. There’d been speculation that Xi would join other world leaders at the UN meeting as part of his US visit. Trump invited Xi to visit during his trip to Beijing in May. The two sides used their spring summit to steady ties that had deteriorated over trade, tech, Taiwan and other issues.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah flared in Lebanon over the weekend, the latest setback in efforts to end parallel wars in the Middle East that have dragged on for almost six months and disrupted global markets.Israel’s military said Sunday that it killed Abu Hassan Alaa, a senior Hezbollah commander, in southern Lebanon a day earlier. Eleven people died in the Israeli strikes, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said were in retaliation for an attack by the militant group that seriously injured three soldiers.
2) President Donald Trump told the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea and indicated his decision to do so was driven by frustration the longtime US ally hadn’t provided more support for his war with Iran.
3) Hayden Panettiere, known for her roles on “Heroes” and in “Scream 4” and “Scream 6,” has died. Her rep confirmed her death to ABC News. A cause of death was not immediately known. “It is with profound sadness that we share the tragic passing of our beloved Hayden. She was an incredible light and a force of nature who brought immeasurable love and joy to all who knew her — and to the millions who watched her onscreen,” her rep told ABC.

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