Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Warsh insisted policymakers’ decision to leave interest rates unchanged wasn’t a sign of inertia at the central bank, which he reiterated is committed to tackling inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point. The fractured vote signaled growing conviction among some policymakers that higher rates are needed to curb resurgent price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement was otherwise identical to the one issued following their June meeting, with officials repeating their pledge to “deliver price stability.”

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged, but a fractured vote signaled growing conviction among some policymakers that higher rates are needed to curb resurgent inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point. The committee’s post-meeting statement was otherwise identical to the one issued following their June meeting. Officials repeated their pledge to “deliver price stability.”

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) Iran fired on American forces overnight and the US and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, abruptly ending a days-long lull in hostilities.
The US and Iran had paused attacks at the end of last week to give diplomacy another chance, leading to a significant drop in energy prices.

2) Oil surged as a fresh round of fighting erupted across the Middle East, threatening further disruptions to energy flows and severely undermining diplomatic efforts to end the months-old conflict.
Brent climbed almost 4% to above $87 a barrel, paring some of the 16% loss over the past three sessions that was its biggest such decline since 2020. Since the start of July, the benchmark has traded in range of almost $32.

3) US stocks edged higher as traders held off on major bets ahead of a US interest-rate decision where markets see room for a hike and earnings from two of the world’s biggest spenders on artificial intelligence.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 contracts were flat after a selloff in chipmakers left the underlying index on the brink of a technical correction. Treasuries stalled after three days of gains, with traders assigning about a 30% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase. The dollar barely budged.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) The US and Iran extended their pause in hostilities, with the focus turning to talks between Tehran and Oman over restarting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Omani and Iranian negotiators met in Tehran over the weekend and discussions are ongoing, according to people familiar with the situation, asking not to be identified referring to sensitive matters. A deal to get ships moving through the waterway more frequently would enable the Islamic Republic and the US to resume formal negotiations about Tehran’s nuclear program and permanently ending their five-month war, the people said.

2) A selloff in semiconductor stocks deepened as signs of progress in China’s advanced chipmaking compounded worries about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence spending boom.
US technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%, while in Asia, a 7.5% slump put a Bloomberg gauge of semiconductor shares on course for its biggest decline since April 2025.

3) Taiwanese prosecutors detained an Nvidia Corp. employee as part of a probe into the alleged smuggling of AI chips into China, thrusting the US company into a high-profile case concerning the black market for its products.
Local investigators searched the home of the staffer and his desk at Nvidia’s Taipei office on July 24, according to people familiar with the matter. The courts later granted prosecutors’ request to detain the person on allegations of forgery and breach of trust, the people said, asking not to be named as the employee’s identity isn’t public.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

1) The US and Iran held off attacks on one another for a third straight night, helping lift global stock and bond markets and push down oil prices. President Trump is giving diplomacy “some space,” according to Mike Waltz, Washington’s ambassador to the United Nations, after Trump threatened to step up attacks in Iran. Iran’s army says it has halted its retaliation against US bases and troops in the region as a result of Trump’s decision to hold off on strikes, but tensions between the warring sides remain high.

2) Three people were killed and at least five others injured in a shooting at a food festival near Seattle’s Space Needle landmark on Sunday. Seattle police are investigating and advised people to avoid the area, with one suspect taken into custody and another suspect remaining at large. The shooting happened during the Bite of Seattle festival, with police believing that two people were shooting at each other and asking witnesses to come forward with information.

3) Nvidia will invest $1 billion in Naver Corp. to help finance an AI data center under construction in South Korea. Nvidia is teaming up with SK Group to build more than 2 gigawatts of AI data centers on the Korean Peninsula. It comes amid a Wall Street Journal report that the company is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data center project.

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to the next decision from the Federal Reserve and a preview of three tech stocks for the week ahead.
• In the UK – a look ahead to the next monetary policy decision from the Bank of England.
• In Asia – a look ahead to the next monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan.

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.   

On today's podcast:   

1) President Trump said he’s considering a “massive attack” on Iran to push the nation to negotiate a peace deal. The president told Axios that Iran isn’t ready to make a deal and “they haven’t received enough pain yet,” and that he was “close to making a decision” on attacks that would be “bigger than ever before.” The US has launched strikes intended to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in Hormuz, and Trump has threatened “major military punishment” on Iran and the Houthi militant group it backs in Yemen if they target commercial ships.   

2) President Trump is rebuilding his tariff strategy with new levies on 60 economies. The US will collect duties of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, following an investigation into the alleged failure of around 60 economies to prevent forced labor in their supply chains. Goods from some trading partners deemed to have adopted forced-labor restrictions will be subject to 10% tariffs, including Mexico, the UK, Canada and India, while duties on items from the European Union and Taiwan won’t exceed 10%. The rates under the new authority took effect Friday at 12:01 a.m. New York time, with certain exemptions, such as for products that can’t be produced in the US or where tariffs would cause economy-wide disruptions.   

3) Intel delivered a revenue forecast that shattered Wall Street estimates, indicating that booming data center spending is helping fuel a long-awaited turnaround. Sales will be $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion in the third quarter, with the low end of that range easily clearing the $15.1 billion average analyst estimate. The outlook underscores Intel’s gains with data center customers, which are clamoring for chips to satisfy demand for artificial intelligence computing, with sales in that segment soaring 59% last quarter.

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Intel surged in late trading after the chipmaker’s revenue forecast shattered estimates, indicating that booming data center spending is helping fuel a long-awaited turnaround. Sales will be $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion in the third quarter, the company said Thursday in a statement. Even the low end of that range would easily clear the $15.1 billion average analyst estimate.

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

• Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Head of Technology Research
• Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech co-host

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Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.   

On today's podcast:   

1) The Iran-backed Houthis claimed their first attack on commercial ships in recent months, targeting two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones. The Saudi government confirmed an attack on one refined-products tanker, called the Encelia, and the British navy said a tanker was struck by a projectile near the Saudi town of Al Shuqaiq. The move could effectively close another maritime chokepoint vital to energy markets, following Iran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices are rising and Brent crude jumping.   

2) Alphabet raised its capital spending forecast to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion this year, up from a previous forecast of $190 billion. The company's quarterly cash flow was negative for the first time since going public, with negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion in the period, and its cloud revenue totaled $24.77 billion, up 82% from a year earlier. Alphabet's cloud backlog grew to $514 billion, with over half expected to convert to revenue within 24 months, and the company's net income was $9.11 a share, well above Wall Street's forecasts.   

3) Tesla's profit tumbled despite a strong quarter for its automotive business, pressuring Elon Musk's plan to refocus the electric-vehicle maker on artificial intelligence and robots. Spending on ambitious initiatives surged to $5.8 billion in the second quarter, resulting in Tesla's first cash burn in two years, and the company still expects capital expenditures in excess of $25 billion this year. Tesla's shares were down about 5% in pre-market trading in New York on Thursday, after the company reported adjusted earnings that fell short of analyst estimates and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion.Eric Mollo

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Listen for instant reaction and analysis of megacap tech earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.

Alphabet reported second-quarter cloud revenue that far surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and said the division’s backlog of contracted business ballooned to more than $500 billion, offering fresh evidence that the company’s massive AI investments are paying off.

Meanwhile, Tesla missed Wall Street’s profit expectations even after a strong quarter of auto sales, a setback for the electric-vehicle maker as it looks to build out new lines of business in robotics, autonomy and AI.

To break down all of this, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

• Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech co-host
• Keith Naughton, Bloomberg News Auto Reporter
• Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Head of Technology Research

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