This is the result of a half-day research sprint on the recently-introduced amendment to institute a 10-year moratorium on state-level AI regulations in the current budget reconciliation bill, with a focus on figuring out "is it likely to survive the Byrd Rule".

It seems quite obviously in violation of the Byrd Rule because it violates at least 2 of the 6 tests:

• It has no budget effect, i.e. does not change outlays or revenues. (Probably this is not actually true; I think on net we would expect it to somewhat increase revenues via 2nd/3rd order effects, but in the relevant legal sense, it's not an explicit additional tax and it's not an additional explicit expenditure.  Also, the CBO estimate for that entire section is -500m, which is the full sum of the $500m it appropriates to modernize and secure Federal information technology systems through the deployment of commercial [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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