This week Will and Ben take a look back at the trade war with China and what a second one could look like.
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):
- March 2024 corn up $0.02 at $4.42
- December 2024 corn up $.03 $4.77
- March 2024 soybeans up $.02 at $11.95
- November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.76
- March soybean oil down .23 cents at 45.33 cents/lb
- March soybean meal up $6.80 at $361.10/short ton
- March 2024 wheat down $.03 at $5.90
- July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.03
- March WTI Crude Oil down $3.94 at $72.84/barrel
Weekly Highlights
· The Federal Reserve kept their short-term interest rate steady at 5.25-5.50 while providing signals of rate cuts but not as quickly as the market maybe anticipating.
· Data coming out about the US labor market gave mixed signals- Job openings in December were reported above industry expectations and January job creation of 353,000 jobs was nearly double the pre-report expectations to show a sturdy labor market, but first-time claims for unemployment benefits also exceeded expectations along with slower wage growth and job quits indicated there is a little softness to the labor market.
· Open interest rebounded this week after being down across the board last week for Chicago wheat (0.3%), Corn (0.3%), soybeans (2.7%), soybean oil (3.3%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (9.5%), and rough rice (8.8%).
· Managed money traders continue to be sellers of corn and soybeans while buying back some wheat contracts. Managed money funds sold another 14,866 corn contracts and 16,405 soybean contracts to increase the net shorts. They bought back 4,708 contracts of wheat to shrink their net short in that market.
· The January US Cattle Inventories Report showed all cattle and calves in the US as of January 1 at 87.2 million head – down 2% from last year’s 88.8 million head and lowest since 1951.
· US winter wheat crop conditions, as a whole, are much improved from last year at this time. USDA reported that the largest state Kansas, had winter wheat rated 54% good to excellent up from 21% last year.
· US crude oil and gasoline stocks were up week over week while distillate fuel stocks fell.
· After cold weather limited ethanol production two weeks ago, US ethanol producers increased production 51 million gallons this week to 291 million gallons.
· Export sales were mixed- corn and grain sorghum sales were up week over week while soybean and wheat sales were down. Soybean sales at 6 million bushels were the lowest of the marketing year and well below all expectations and bearish to the market.
· Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections for the week were mixed. Corn and wheat were bearish while soybeans saw their strongest week since Mid-December.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Labor market mixed signals
- A second trade war?
- South American record production
- USDA supply and demand preview
- Reports to watch
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