This week, Will and Ben check in on the early part of planting season across the cornbelt.
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Market recap (changes on week):
- May corn up $.22 at $6.76
- December 2023 corn up $.04 at $5.66
- May soybeans up $.35 at $15.87
- November soybeans up $.02 at $13.11
- May soybean oil flat at 54.57 cents/lb
- May soybean meal up $15.00 at $465.70/short ton
- May wheat up $.18 at $6.96
- July wheat up $.17 at $7.07
- June WTI Crude Oil up $1.29 at $81.06/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- Geopolitical headlines continue to influence the corn and wheat market- announcements last week of more old crop corn sales to China and Russia stating they would not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative supported prices. Additionally- Poland, Hungry, and Slovakia all announced they would ban imports of Ukrainian food grains.
- Last week’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates were a little bearish to corn and soybeans as traders had anticipated smaller domestic ending stocks. Ending stocks for both were flat on the month.
- Argentina’s corn production was reduced another 3 million metric tons to 37 mmt while Argentina’s soybean production was down another 5 million metrics tons to 27 mmt.
- US energy stocks were stable on the week with domestic gasoline demand down 4% week over week. US ethanol production fell to 282 million gallons.
- Ag export sales were all on the lower end of expectations. For corn, the 20.8 million bushels were the lowest weekly volume since the second week of January.
- Open interest futures and options positions for Chicago soybeans fell 3% last week, while corn was slightly up, and Chicago wheats were nearly flat.
- Managed money traders bought back positions of feed grains while selling off Chicago soybean positions.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a 15-month high of 185.8 million bushels. This is the second straight month- soybean crush has exceeded last year’s comparable months figure. Soybean oil stocks were slightly less than anticipated.
- Weekly Ag export inspections were mixed- strong for corn and weak for soybeans and wheat. Corn exceeded all pre-report expectations.
- USDA’s crop progress report showed 8% of the nation’s corn planted- up 5% from last week and above the 5-year average, 4% of the soybean crop planted above average of 1% for this time of year, 38% of the rice crop planted also above average, and 8% of the nation’s cotton crop was planted- slightly behind normal.
- The progress report also showed 27% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- flat on the week- however, incorporating all categories showed conditions deteriorated a little bit.
Topics:
- Market recap
- USDA's supply and demand reports recap
- U.S. planting progress
- Argentinian crop estimates dropping
- Wheat market turmoil
- Reports to watch
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