·This week in the markets – Cash cattle were down $8.70 this week. Feeder cattle were $2 to $12 lower. The October live cattle futures contract was down nearly $9, and the September feeder cattle futures closed $6 lower, despite September corn futures losing $.39 this week. Choice box beef prices was $14 higher as there was strength across the board, but was led by ribs and loins. Cash barrow and gilt prices were $2.25 lower this week and the October lean hog futures contract slid $4.25. The pork cutout value was unchanged this week, despite higher bellies. That puts both Choice Box Beef and the Pork Cutout value $.20 above year-ago levels.
·The USDA’s Supply and Demand report – Feed costs have been projected to decline for the remainder of the year. But the uncertainty of the crop suggests there is some upside potential to corn and soybean prices. Livestock producers should strongly consider some risk management in terms of input costs.
·Retail Prices – The Choice beef retail price was unchanged in July relative to June and stands $.13 cents above year-ago levels. The pork retail price gained $.01 this month and stands $.20 higher than a year ago.
·Farmer’s Share of the retail dollar – For beef, we started the year nearly 47% and are currently sitting at about 41% of the retail dollar. As a comparison, in January 2015, farmers were capturing about 56 percent of the retail dollar. For pork, we started the year capturing 19% of the retail dollar and that’s improved to 23% due in part to increased packer capacity.
·Consumer Sentiment – Declined to its lowest level since the start of the year. The overall index was down 6.4% relative to July and 4.3% lower than a year ago. Much of that weakness is related to what consumers fear is an economy running out of steam.
·Next week’s reports – Cold Storage, Livestock Slaughter, and Cattle on Feed.
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