By Thomas Harrington at Brownstone dot org.
On April 29, 2020 as the College was beginning its discussion of whether it should reopen for in-person classes in the fall of that same year, I submitted the following post to the Faculty Listserv.
I thought some of you might be interested in yesterday's statistics from the CDC regarding total Covid fatalities for various age tranches of the US population to date.
The 15-24 age cohort—which presumably includes most of our students— and is made up of 42,970,800 individuals has seen 33 Covid deaths.
So, based on these numbers, the chances of someone in this age group dying from Covid are, if my feeble arithmetic skills are accurate, is:
0.00007679%
In the 25-34 group there have been:
233 deaths out of a cohort of 45,697,774 people
In the 35-44 group there have been:
599 deaths out of a cohort of 41,277,888 people
In the 45-54 group there have been:
1,649 deaths out of a cohort of 41,631,699 people
In the 55-64 group there have been:
3,970 deaths out of a cohort of 42,272,636 people
So, when we take all the numbers of people between 15 and 64 in the US, which presumably includes almost all those who might find themselves working in and around a college campus, we get:
6,484 deaths out of a total number of 213,850,797 people
So again, if my feeble math skills are correct, then the following is the current death rate from Covid for all people from 15-64
0.003%
The figures here were taken last evening from this page.
No one on the Listserv challenged my statistics. However, a number did try to reframe this seemingly straightforward matter. One stated by saying that lethality was the wrong measure to be talking about as there are other damages from exposure.
However, this person provided no facts or even anecdotes to back up the claim.
Another told us about a friend who is a nurse in New York who said lots of people were dying there. Again, however, no statistics were adduced.
Finally, another said lethality in the general population was not the right measure as we should be talking about deaths among the infected. When I responded that since we don't know who is infected, we cannot determine that number and thus this was the best we could do, no response was forthcoming.
Later that same day, I sent the following note to the Listserv in response to a colleague who, after referencing the statistics from the Diamond Princess and the Santa Clara study, and admitting that the levels of infections and fatalities were quite low in that ship of mostly senior citizens but concluded, without providing any evidence, that this meant that the testing must be faulty. In other words, he just somehow knew—media conditioning is indeed a powerful thing—that the virus had to be much more lethal than the Diamond Princess and Santa Clara studies had shown it to be. Here is my response.
Dear XXX
Fine. But you can't have it both ways. Either, as has been suggested, we are all in danger because the virus has not spread and will eventually get to everybody and we thus need to be vigilant for the coming wave of sickness is produced.
Or as the cruise ship numbers—derived from what which is I presume is a pretty ideal venue for infection— demonstrate, and the Santa Clara study you mention also shows, that infection does not necessarily spread as rapidly or as extensively as once thought.
So, which assumption are we working with?
In the end, given the heavy reliance on differing, but as yet unproven assumptions regarding the extent and rate of spread of the disease in the absence of testing, the most stable indicator would appear to be deaths caused over time.
On another note, both Spain and Italy are generally viewed as being considerably ahead of the US in terms of the development of the epidemic and well ahead of the US in deaths per million.
Or to use ZZZZ's metaphor, they are in March or April or June of the car driving accident season.
And yet, in their death numbers by age group, in their tendencies in the ...