By Magnificent Noise x Richard Kramer x Will Page
4.3
3333 ratings
The podcast currently has 175 episodes available.
On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Part One
01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven
02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse
03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime
05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse
09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking
15:21 The Mozambique Scandal
19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse
23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal
23:47 Part Two
23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse
24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse
26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals
28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis
32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking
40:05 Reception of the Book
42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts
46:37 Credits
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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… [Repeat from March, 2024.]
Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Part One
00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights
01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity
02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue
04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society
07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector
11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance
13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency
16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge
22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen
23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation
23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth
25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands
26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag
27:22 Part Two
27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity
28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity
32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities
36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality
43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark
47:28 Credits
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This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan
01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights
02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply
04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation
06:13 AI and the Future of Music
12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media
13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators
19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores
25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry
27:33 Part Two
28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype
30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies
30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View
31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies
33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom
35:15 Bifurcation in the Market
43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption
44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry
46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions
52:00 Credits
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Podcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:59 Part One
02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts
05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization
09:09 The Future of Media Consumption
22:11 Part Two
22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions
37:46 AI and Data Utilization
46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell
48:33 Credits
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Repeat from November, 2023.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:46 Part One
00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz
02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model
06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism
07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms
08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy
09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers
15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends
28:47 Part Two
32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?
36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads
36:34 The Struggles of Threads
36:59 The Power of Network Effects
38:17 The Limitations of Threads
39:48 The Rise of Reddit
40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape
40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter
41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta
44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces
45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter
49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership
54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies
58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions
59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter
01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology
01:02:34 Credits
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The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes.
00:00
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Part One
01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion
02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets
04:29 Comparing Market Values
07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics
12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges
15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience
18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence
19:30 Part Two
19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget
22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies
30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech
35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement
36:49 Credits
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We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:44 Part One
00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days
03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained
14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP
18:59 Part Two
19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges
25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration
28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy
32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement
33:25 Credits
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We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Part One
01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation
03:25 Understanding Company Valuations
06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations
10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech
15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons
21:12 Part Two
21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles
25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics
36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions
43:46 Credits
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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits
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One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:44 Part One
00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk
01:30 Part Two
01:30 Introduction to V Lex
02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research
03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession
07:54 Democratizing Access to Law
09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech
17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes
23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services
25:28 Democratizing Access to Law
25:58 Part Two
26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech
26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work
28:35 AI in the Judicial System
34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech
38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law
46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations
48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects
49:12 Credits
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The podcast currently has 175 episodes available.
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