If Ukraine does not receive real security guarantees, the war will continue—and is likely to spill over into the rest of Europe. But what kind of guarantees are truly needed, and which of them are realistic?

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Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher, editor-in-chief of UkraineWorld, and president of PEN Ukraine.

Our guest today is Hanna Shelest, one of Ukraine’s leading experts on international security and foreign policy. She is Director of the Security Studies Program at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism,” and Editor-in-Chief of the journal UA: Ukraine Analytica.

Explaining Ukraine is produced by UkraineWorld, an English-language media project about Ukraine, run by Internews Ukraine.

Listen on various platforms: https://li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine

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Your contributions are vital—we rely heavily on crowdfunding. You can also help fund our volunteer trips to frontline areas of Ukraine, where we support both civilians and soldiers. Donations are welcome via PayPal: [email protected]

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CONTENTS:

00:00 Hanna Shelest, director of the Security Studies Programme at the Foreign Policy Council 'Ukrainian Prism'

02:04 A Century of Broken Promises: What History Teaches Us About Security Agreements

04:24 The NATO Paradox: Is Article 5 a Paper Tiger or a Real Deterrent?

16:20 The Baltic States on the Brink: How Real is the Threat of a Russian Blitzkrieg?

22:55 Non-Mutual Animosity: When a 'Gentleman's Agreement' Meets a Rapist

26:40 Has the US Abandoned Its Role as Ally to Become a Mediator?

30:32 Why Can't Europe Play This Role in the Conflict?

32:39 Alaska Fallout: Was the Meeting a Strategic Victory or a Destructive Blunder?

41:42 Sanctions in the Gray Zone: Why Do Loopholes Still Undermine Global Efforts?

47:35 The 'Orange' Fallacy: Why Ceding Territory is an Act of Awarding Aggression?

49:34 The Deeper Cost of War: Why Are We Talking About Land, Not People?