This is a personal post and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of other members of Apollo Research. Many other people have talked about similar ideas, and I claim neither novelty nor credit.

Note that this reflects my median scenario for catastrophe, not my median scenario overall. I think there are plausible alternative scenarios where AI development goes very well.

When thinking about how AI could go wrong, the kind of story I’ve increasingly converged on is what I call “catastrophe through chaos.” Previously, my default scenario for how I expect AI to go wrong was something like Paul Christiano's “What failure looks like,” with the modification that scheming would be a more salient part of the story much earlier.

In contrast, “catastrophe through chaos” is much more messy, and it's much harder to point to a single clear thing that went wrong. The broad strokes of [...]

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Outline:

(02:46) Parts of the story

(02:50) AI progress

(11:12) Government

(14:21) Military and Intelligence

(16:13) International players

(17:36) Society

(18:22) The powder keg

(21:48) Closing thoughts

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.