China Perspectives

China Perspectives

By Fitch RatingsBusinessNewsPolitics
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China Perspectives episodes

  • China’s Next Growth Engine: EVs, AI, and Robotics?

    Jeremy Zook and Ying Wang discuss China's 'new productive forces' strategy, focusing on EVs, AI, and robotics. They assess whether industrial upgrading can offset structural economic headwinds and support long-term growth.

    • (00:00) - Introduction and overview of China’s “new productive forces”
  • (00:47) - What are “new productive forces” and why do they matter?
  • (03:28) - Can industrial upgrading sustain China’s long-term growth?
  • (07:03) - EVs as a case study in China’s industrial transformation
  • (10:35) - AI, robotics and the next wave of industrial upgrading
  • (14:38) - Key indicators to watch for success
  • (17:19) - Closing remarks and new podcast announcement
  • 20 min
  • China’s Dominance in Global Rare Earths

    Sabrin Chowdhury from BMI speaks on China’s dominance in global rare earths and implications on geopolitics and prices.

    • (00:00) - Introduction of Sabrin and her rare earths coverage
  • (01:27) - Why China dominates global rare earths supply chain
  • (03:31) - China’s dependence on Myanmar for heavy rare earth feedstock
  • (05:17) - Western economies’ supply chain diversification strategies
  • (09:00) - Potential credible alternatives to China
  • (10:09) - Obstacles to Western countries’ diversification push
  • (11:20) - China’s tightened grip and impact on prices
  • (13:05) - Indicators to watch on evolving trends
  • 16 min
  • China-US Strategic Competition in Latin America

    This episode explores China’s economic linkages with Latin America (LatAm), with Fitch Ratings’ Todd Martinez and Janice Chong, and the implications of the resurgence of the US “Monroe Doctrine” on these economic ties and for Chinese corporates.

    • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:44) - Overview of China’s Economic Ties with LatAm
  • (05:34) - Outlook for the LatAm-China Trade Relationship
  • (09:05) - LatAm’s Response to Surging Chinese Imports
  • (12:53) - Risks to Chinese Corporates from Tariffs
  • (13:52) - Chinese FDI into LatAm
  • (16:55) - Key FDI Sectors for Chinese Firms in LatAm
  • (18:42) - Geopolitical Risks to Chinese Firms’ LatAm Investments
  • (20:10) - Opportunities and Risks for LatAm from US-China Competition
  • (23:37) - Conclusion
  • 25 min
  • China 2026 Credit Outlook

     A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2026 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

    • (01:05) - Macro outlook
  • (06:05) - Deteriorating China property outlook
  • (06:58) - Neutral China LGFV outlook
  • (09:52) - China banks’ strategy amid deteriorating outlook
  • (11:32) - Anti-involution campaign
  • (13:41) - Local governments’ spending
  • (16:20) - China banks’ asset quality
  • (18:13) - China’s sovereign rating headroom
  • 21 min
  • An Update on China’s LGFV Debt Substitution Programme

    Davis Sun, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, provides a progress report on China’s debt substitution plan and its impact on local government vehicles (LGFVs) and finances, as well as an outlook for 2026 and beyond.

    • (00:23) - Introduction
  • (01:50) - Recent LGFV Sector Developments
  • (05:40) - Progress of the Debt Substitution Programme
  • (09:45) - LGFV Financial Health Amid Debt Substitution
  • (13:17) - Fiscal Impact of Debt Substitution on Local Governments
  • (16:00) - Lingering LGFV Debt Risks
  • (20:34) - Local Government Infrastructure Spending
  • (22:53) - 2026 Local Government Fiscal Outlook
  • (25:08) - Conclusion
  • 27 min
  • Price Wars in China’s Food Delivery and Instant Retail

    Fitch analysts discuss intensifying competition between Meituan and Alibaba in China’s food delivery and instant retail business.

    • (00:22) - Introduction to instant retail in China
  • (01:19) - Competitive landscape and on-going price war
  • (02:54) - Meituan's strategy to defend market leadership
  • (05:18) - Alibaba's challenges and opportunities
  • (07:02) - Meituan's rating outlook change
  • (09:38) - Alibaba's profitability and free cash flow
  • (11:00) - How the price war could end

  • 15 min
  • China-ASEAN Trade Flows Amid Global Trade Policy Uncertainty

    Chris Clague, an Associate Fellow at the IISS and an independent advisor on trade and supply chains, discusses recent trends in China-ASEAN trade and investment flows, and how they may be affected by US President Trump’s tariff policies.

    • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:04) - Overview of China/ASEAN trade and investment
  • (06:26) - Transshipments
  • (09:57) - Transshipment tariffs effect on China’s investment
  • (12:54) - China+1 strategy
  • (14:58) - Top destinations and sectors for Chinese investment
  • (17:35) - China’s role in global supply chains
  • (20:37) - How will ASEAN manage a surge in imports from China?
  • (24:13) - Conclusion
  • 26 min
  • Regulatory Reforms of China AMCs

    Katie Chen, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, and Franco Lam , Director, share their insights on the recent regulatory reforms in China’s AMC sector.

    • (00:48) - Recent regulatory reform and impact
  • (03:49) - Opportunities and challenges for AMCs
  • (07:01) - What investors should watch out for
  • (09:30) - Improvement in China AMCs’ capital buffer
  • (11:32) - China AMCs’ ownership changes
  • (13:54) - Rating actions on China AMCs
  • 18 min
  • Key Credit Themes in China’s Power Generation Sector

    This episode explores key changes and credit trends in China’s power sector, including renewables growth and market reforms. Insights from Penny Chen, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings, reveal what lies ahead for major power generators.

    • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (00:45) - Key Changes in China’s Power Sector
  • (03:17) - Key Credit Themes for Power Generators
  • (06:16) - Credit Outlook on China’s Power Sector
  • (08:45) - China’s Modern Power System
  • (11:11) - Conclusion
  • 12 min
  • Managing Risks from LGFVs and Local Government Debt Outlook

    Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends.

    • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (01:30) - LGFV Debt Control Measures
  • (03:07) - LGFV Reclassification
  • (04:59) - LGFV Debt Substitution Plan
  • (06:55) - Outlook for Special Purpose Bonds
  • (09:34) - Local Government Interest Burdens
  • (11:14) - Conclusion

  • 13 min

About China Perspectives

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China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.

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