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China Perspectives episodes
- Impact of US Tariffs on China's Commodity Sectors
Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:41) - Impact on aluminum and copper
- (04:43) - Impact on steel
- (07:33) - Impact on chemicals
- (10:28) - China’s energy import cost
14 min - China’s Tariff Challenges Rising Rapidly
Amid rapidly changing US trade policies, Fitch analysts, Alex Muscatelli and Janice Chong, discuss the macroeconomic and corporate level impacts on China from rising US tariffs.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (02:10) - Fitch’s Tariff Baseline
- (04:30) - Modeling the Economic Impact of Tariffs
- (07:12) - China’s Trade Diversification
- (08:55) - Tariffs and China’s Economic Outlook
- (11:01) - Corporate Sector Tariff Exposures
- (13:30) - Mexico Tariffs and Chinese Corporates
- (14:55) - Steel, Aluminum and Auto Tariffs
- (16:48) - Corporate Tariff Risk Management
- (17:39) - Impact on Shifting Supply Chains
- (18:45) - Conclusion
20 min - China 2025 Credit Outlook
A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook
- (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates
- (04:55) - Property sector outlook
- (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates
- (07:10) - Local Government Finance Outlook
- (08:36) - Hidden Debt Substitution Policy
- (10:40) - LGFV Sector Risks
- (12:40) - Impact of Rate Cuts on Banks
- (15:24) - Asset Quality Outlook
- (17:21) - Conclusion
19 min - A Perspective on China’s 2025 Macro Outlook
Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:01) - Key Issues to Watch in 2025
- (02:32) - US/China Trade War Prospects
- (06:29) - Assessing China’s Resilience to Trade Tensions
- (11:12) - Property Sector
- (17:11) - Inflation/Deflation Outlook
- (20:13) - Monetary Policy Response
- (23:57) - Fiscal Policy Response
- (28:27) - Government Bond Market Drivers
- (33:39) - Conclusion
35 min - China’s Solar PV Manufacturing Industry
Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply
- (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing
- (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response
- (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes
19 min - Will China’s Stepped-Up Stimulus Push Off Deflationary Risks?
David Wang, Professor at the Virginia Tech Dept. of Economics and former Credit Suisse Head of APAC (ex-Japan)Economics, joins us to discuss deflationary risks in the Chinese economy and whether the recent policy stimulus can address these pressures.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:31) - China’s Economic Prospects
- (05:10) - Drivers of deflationary pressures
- (08:37) - Expectations for household confidence
- (11:11) - New productive forces and labour productivity
- (15:46) - Assessment of Recent Policy Actions
- (17:37) - Fiscal Support and Consumption Policies
- (26:16) - Risks of a deflationary spiral
- (29:09) - High Leverage and deflation
- (32:12) - Outro
33 min - Recent Trends in China’s Banking Sector
Elaine Xu, Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions team, provides an update on how Chinese banks are managing the challenges from economic headwinds, the property correction, and LGFV debt renegotiations.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:38) - Recent trends in bank performance
- (05:06) - Property sector stress impact on banks
- (07:26) - Banks role in property policy response
- (09:26) - LGFV exposures and debt renegotiations
- (11:16) - Impact of LGFV debt renegotiations
- (13:01) - Risks for small regional banks
- (14:33) - Banks increased policy role and its impact
- (15:40) - Conclusion
17 min - China’s Local Government and LGFV Debt Risk
Samuel Kwok, Head of Fitch’s APAC International Public Finance shares his views on China’s local government and LGFV debt problem.
- (01:21) - 1H24 local governments’ fiscal trends
- (04:02) - Expect marginal improvement in 2H24
- (05:30) - Effect of measures to de-risk twelve “high-risk” provinces
- (08:22) - LGFVs’ onshore bond yields at record low
- (11:28) - Introduction of top three credit themes
- (12:25) - Potential impact of reform measures pledged by Third Plenum
- (14:21) - The second credit theme on social housing investment
- (15:17) - The third credit theme on LGFV debt restrictions
- (16:32) - Maintain a neutral credit outlook
18 min - China’s Housing Demand Forecast 2024 - 2040
Shuncheng Zhang, Associate Director of Fitch’s China Corporates Team based in Shanghai, shares China’s housing demand forecast from 2024 to 2040.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:05) - 2024-2040 Housing Demand
- (03:43) - New Private Home Supply
- (06:08) - Overview of Forecast Model
- (09:13) - Factors Leading to Demand Plunge
- (12:47) - Public and Secondary Housing Supply
- (13:58) - Fitch’s Forecast vs. Others’
16 min - China Mid-Year Credit Update
Lan Wang, Senior Director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, joins for a wide-ranging discussion on China credit developments, including recent rating actions, growth prospects, property and banking sector outlooks, and recent EU tariffs on Chinese EVs.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (00:55) - China Sovereign Rating Action
- (01:48) - Rating actions in other Chinese entities
- (04:40) - 2024 Macro Outlook for China
- (06:12) - Property Sector Prospects
- (08:42) - Banking Sector Outlook
- (10:58) - EU tariffs on Chinese EVs
15 min
About China Perspectives
From the publisher's feed
China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.
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