Market Updates & Analysis:

• Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern.
• Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady.
• Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence.

South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST)

• Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments
• Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion
• Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook

Stock & Sector Insights:

• Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos.
• Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain.
• Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure.

China Stocks & ETFs:

• Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration
• Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China?
• General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’

Bond Market Watch:

• SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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