A major theme of the first half of 2026 was Anthropic’s Claude Code triggering a software sell-off that is still reshaping private credit, BSL and distressed debt. In the latest episode of Cloud 9fin Dan Mika, Anna Russi and Samantha Stokes unpack the first half of the year and what shocks await in the second half.

The team reviews a volatile first half that began with optimism around M&A, Hologic, Electronic Arts and new-money LBO supply, before the software sell-off and Iran war changed the tone. Dan Mika contrasts IG M&A volume with weaker high-yield and leveraged loan activity, while Anna Russi explains how private credit lenders are reassessing software underwriting after Medallia handed keys to lenders. Samantha Stokes discusses distressed credits trading down ahead of 2028 and 2029 maturity walls, with lenders wary of long-dated refis as AI risk remains hard to price.

The episode also covers the limited but sector-specific impact of the Iran war on chemicals, building products and airlines, including Tronox, Cornerstone Building Brands and Spirit Airlines. Looking ahead, the team flags private credit liquidity stress, retail redemptions, portfolio sales at managers including Blue Owl, Apollo, FS KKR and New Mountain, rising secondaries activity, Mudrick’s LME fund and the risk of higher-for-longer SOFR.

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